The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 24

Agenda

1. Pulling the Pitchers
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets
5. Factor Grid

1. Pulling the Pitchers

Depending on your league, H2H playoffs are either in the finals or semi-finals. My fourth place team is currently up against the first place roster from the regular season. All season, I’ve relied on sweeping the pitching categories while picking up a couple offensive points. When my pitching failed, I inevitably lost the week. I simply didn’t have offensive fire power.

My postseason plan was simple. I traded Max Scherzer for Jonathan Villar ($7 to keep) then picked up Travis Jankowski and Roman Quinn to complement Villar and Elvis Andrus. The plan – win runs, stolen bases, and all the pitching stats.

So far, I’ve gotten lucky without really executing the plan. In the first round, I somehow lost steals and most of the pitching categories as part of a 6-6 tie. I had the tiebreaker. This week, my opponent’s stacked offense has come up very small. Here are the scores – I’m on top.

I have seemingly safe margins in five of six offensive categories. On the pitching side, every category but strikeouts is up for grabs. With the help of Robbie Ray, Jose Fernandez, Joe Musgrove, and a handful of the worst closers, I could break the tie in wins or overcome my one save deficit. He has five pitchers to my three.

This remains a tricky situation. My opponent has Jose Quintana and Clayton Kershaw today. He’s likely to make up ground in home runs. If Kershaw and Quintana twirl gems, he’ll be back in front on ERA and WHIP (and probably wins). That puts us at 6-6.

I’ve made the call. For the first time in two years, I’m pulling all of my pitchers in the hopes that Kershaw and Quintana can’t save his pitching bacon. I only have Ray today with Fernandez serving as an option to save my own bacon tomorrow if needed.

Oh, fortunately, I hold the tiebreaker again. I’ll let you know how this worked on Monday.

2. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Four games are early. Yu Darvish headlines an interesting list of eight pitchers. Certainly, if you can afford Darvish against the Athletics, you should probably use him. Marcus Stroman has pitched relatively well in the second half, although that’s less true through his last six starts. He should get enough support against CC Sabathia to earn a win.

The cheapest option on FanDuel is the most interesting. Alex Reyes is constrained in two ways. He’ll be held to a relatively low pitch count, and he’s opposed by the Cubs offense. The pitch limit didn’t prevent Reyes from throwing seven innings last week against the Giants. Reyes had some success against the Cubs on 9/13 although he did allow six walks in 4.1 innings of relief.

Others of interest include Daniel Norris, Yordano Ventura, and Jason Hammel. I’m only really considering Norris of that bunch.

Stack Targets: Sabathia, Raul Alcantera

Late: Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner lead a top heavy group of pitchers in the 10 game evening contest. The Red Sox and Rays got left out today. Bumgarner has the easier matchup versus the Padres. Kershaw doesn’t have it too badly either against the sea level Rockies. Kershaw is woefully underpriced on FanDuel at $10,600. He’ll be very heavily owned on both sites.

When Quintana faced the Indians 11 days ago, he posted a 51 point performance on FanDuel. He’s once again in line for an easy win opposite Cody Anderson. The Cleveland offense should be enough to convince most DFSers to seek a cheaper, similar ceiling play. As such, it may make sense to roll the dice on Quintana in GPPs.

Speaking of GPP plays, Robbie Ray is in the perfect spot to post 10 or more strikeouts. The Orioles are whiff-prone and desperate. There are two drawbacks to using Ray. He rarely goes deep in the game. It’s rare for him to exceed six innings. The Orioles offense is powerful. They could turn the tables at Camden Yards.

Dan Straily has seemingly solved the contact management game. When he faced the Brewers 11 days ago, he tallied 54 FanDuel points. The Brewers are a strikeout prone, exploitable offense. Straily could easily replicate his strong performance. Milwaukee is the Senior Circuit version of the Orioles offense. They’ll occasionally produce crooked numbers.

Jukebox hero Ivan Nova is coming off his second bad outing since joining the Pirates. The last time he struggled, he responded with his very best performance – a complete game drubbing of the Astros. The Nationals lineup makes for a difficult opponent, but they’re no better than the Astros. Honestly, who knows what to expect?

Stack Targets: Sean Gilmartin, Aaron Blair, Anderson, Jarred Cosart, Brad Peacock, Jhoulys Chacin, Tyler Duffer, Taylor Jungmann, Alec Asher, Wade Miley, Ariel Miranda, Chad Bettis, Joe Ross

3. SaberSim Observations

Kershaw, Bumgarner, Darvish, Stroman, and Ray top SaberSim’s wish list. Glad to see we’re in full agreement today. Stacks includes Trouts, Reds, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Tigers, Brewers, and Orioles.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets 

I have to rapid fire these today. Here are some lists. Your degree of desperation should inform how deeply you reach.

Pitchers to Start: As you can see, I’ve listed most pitchers regardless of ownership rate. The best play on the board is Tyler Anderson versus the Dodgers.

Also consider: Matt Boyd, Carlos Rodon, Michael Pineda, Julio Teheran, A.J. Cole, Brandon Finnegan, Taijuan Walker, Hector Santiago, Joe Musgrove, Jharel Cotton, Colby Lewis, Rich Hill, Dylan Bundy

Pitchers to Exploit: A few of these guys are startable under the right conditions. Namely Tomlin, Gsellman, ERod, and Glasnow.

Also consider: Josh Tomlin, Edinson Volquez, Jake Thompson, Robert Gsellman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tyler Glasnow, Wily Peralta, Daniel Wright, Matt Cain, Braden Shipley

Hitters (power): I’ve listed five Padres outfielders. Only three can start. #Maths

Also consider: Ryan Schimpf, Alex Dickerson, Hunter Renfroe, Jon Jay, Austin Hedges, Enrique Hernandez, Yulieski Gurriel, Franklin Gutierrez, Mike Zunino, Josh Bell, Andrew Benintendi, Asdrubal Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Kelly Johnson, Freddy Galvis, Tommy Joseph, Michael Saunders

Hitters (speed): Jose Peraza is the best free stolen base threat. There’s never any hesitation to roster Billy Hamilton so I’m not sure why his better teammate continues to remain available.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Kelby Tomlinson, Manny Margot, Travis Jankowski, Jorge Polanco, Adam Frazier, Roman Quinn, Cesar Hernandez, Cameron Maybin, Rajai Davis

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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