The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 23

Agenda

  1. Social Hour
  2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
  3. Daily DFS
  4. SaberSim Observations
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets
  6. Factor Grid

1. Social Hour

In today’s Social Hour, we’ll discuss the mind-numbingly dumb tweets of Steve Clevenger, card carrying fifth string catcher. Clevenger may not be known for his prowess on the field, but he’s now laid down some of the hottest takes off the field since the halcyon days of John Rocker (Curt Schilling’s takes are post playing career and hence do not count). Said takes include some of the classics such as likening black protesters to animals that need to be caged. He even somehow worked in a dig at Obama. I’ve been wont to shake my fist at the POTUS from time to time as well, most recently when I discovered the milk I had just purchased would expire in two days.

The most important part of this story is that Steve Clevenger is not Mike Clevinger. While the former is a nobody backup catcher, the latter may one day be a real fantasy asset. Kudos Mike for not using social media to make an ass of yourself.

In our next segment, we’ll discuss the five days expired milk I’m currently eating with my cereal. It has grown increasing sour smelling over the last few days and now has a slightly off taste to it. If I’m not here tomorrow, you’ll know why.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Yesterday’s Invitational didn’t quite get off the ground. I saw we had 12 of 15 spots filled with three hours to go, I guess we lost momentum. In any event, I have other commitments today so I’m cancelling the contest. Let’s meet again next Monday for one last week of fun before we’re forcibly subjected to the crushing boredom of NFL. #HotTakes

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: It’s a normal Friday in which the Cubs ruin everything by playing during the day. Surely the Ricketts have purchased enough of the neighborhood around Wrigley that they can now host night games, right? No Jake Arrieta or Mike Leake for us.

Late: The other 14 are late. The top pitchers all have rather worrisome matchups. Cole Hamels has it easiest, but he flopped against the Athletics just last week. What’s to stop it from happening again? In all honesty, I like these rematch scenarios where a good pitcher is coming off a disappointing outing. It scares away the competition.

Danny Duffy and Chris Archer are probably better pitchers than Hamels, but their matchups are even worse. Duffy has to solve a tough Tigers lineup, chock full of right-handed homer threats. Archer need only survive the Boston onslaught. Anyone can do that, right? Right?

To make matters worse, the two next most expensive pitchers – Drew Pomeranz and Michael Fulmer – are opposed by Archer and Duffy respectively. Luckily, it’s a good day for mid-tier pitchers like Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Jeremy Hellickson, Zach Davies, James Paxton, and Jameson Taillon.

After his 16 strikeout KFC Masterpiece last week, Gray is likely to be a popular play tonight. For volatile players like Gray (i.e. guys who aren’t Clayton Kershaw), my general rule of thumb is to avoid them after an excellent outing. Ownership tends to spike. The Dodgers are not an easy matchup for a right-handed pitcher.

I’d feel more confidence about either end of DeSclafani versus Davies if the game was at a pitcher’s venue. DeSclafani could benefit from the Brewers’ high whiff rate, but it’s hard to feel too confident about a visitor at hitter friendly Miller Park.

Stack Targets: Albert Suarez, Bryan Mitchell, Edwin Jackson, Yovani Gallardo, Alex Meyer, Kendall Graveman, Miguel Gonzalez, Andrew Cashner, Doug Fister, Kyle Gibson, Shelby Miller, Matt Wisler, Gabriel Ynoa, Scott Kazmir

4. SaberSim Observations

Pomeranz, Kazmir, Archer, Francisco Liriano, and DeSclafani comprise the top five pitchers today. I think we need to chat about a few of these. Pomeranz does have a good matchup against the Rays, but he’s also been mediocre since joining the American League. That could be caused by fatigue from a big spike in workload, ongoing injury issues, or simply regression to the mean whilst joining the harder league. Or any combination thereof. In any event, since he’s maintained his strikeout rate, there is more upside with Pomeranz than some of the other top picks.

As for Kazmir, he won’t be throwing more than about 50 pitches. They haven’t announced the exact number yet. From what I can find, he’s worked up to a 35 pitch side session. I’m surprised they’re bringing him back at all. Scratch him off your list. Liriano is an interesting option versus the Yankees.

Stacks include the Trouts, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Reds, Tigers, Giants, Blue Jays, and Indians.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

I’m relaxing my arbitrary 50 percent ownership cutoff since late season could make any pitcher available (I’ve been streaming Chris Archer uncontested for a couple weeks in one competitive league).

Pitchers to Start: I’m not on the Daniel Norris bandwagon yet, but his results have been good. As Mike Podhorzer notes, his first pitch strike and swinging strike rates are up this season. There are other red flags, but it’s encouraging to see the whiffs coupled with increased command. The Royals aren’t a whifftastic opponent, but their aggressive approach could help Norris. Or, if he’s throwing first pitch fatballs, he won’t make it five innings.

Also consider: Daniel Norris, Alex Reyes, Marcus Stroman, Jason Hammel, Robbie Ray, Ivan Nova, Dan Straily, Ariel Miranda, Brad Peacock

Pitchers to Exploit: Like his teammate Clevinger (not Clevenger), Cody Anderson should one day solve the equation for pitching to major league hitters. He has the raw components, now he needs to learn how to use them. Until then, he’s an easy exploit target. He’ll host the White Sox.

Also consider: Raul Alcantara, CC Sabathia, Matt Andriese, Wade Miley, Taylor Jungmann, Tyler Duffey, Jhoulys Chacin, Alec Asher, Aaron Blair, Wei-Yin Chen, Jarred Cosart, Chad Bettis

Hitters (power): The current iteration of Scott Schebler is a replacement level outfielder. He combines average offense with below average defense. Schebler has shown better power in the minors, and it’s seemingly only a matter of time before he taps into it in the majors. After all, he calls Great American Ballpark home. Tomorrow’s game is at Miller Park which has played even hotter than GABP for left-handed power.

Also consider: Chase Utley, Adonis Garcia, Dansby Swanson, Justin Bour, T.J. Rivera, Robbie Grossman, Adam Lind, Seth Smith, Dan Vogelbach, Josh Bell, Welington Castillo, Rickie Weeks, Andrew Benintendi

Hitters (speed): If you snagged parts of the Phillies stolen base brigade for today, be sure to hang onto them for tomorrow’s Noah Syndergaard start. That includes Roman Quinn, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, and Aaron Altherr. The first three are the most likely to run.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Denard Span, Jose Peraza, Tim Anderson, Adam Frazier, Melvin Upton, Cameron Maybin

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It’s a pitcher friendly parks weekend.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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alang3131982member
7 years ago

Can you discuss Liriano a little more? I have a healthy ERA/WHIP lead in my h2h championships. But i havent thrown a ton of IPs, so a disaster start could be bad (thanks Syndergaard). I have 8 Sps left, he has 9. Wins are super close….my SPs are a tinge better and i have 6-7 good matchups, where the SPs should be favored…

K’s dont matter. It’s all wins and not losing ratios.