The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 19

Agenda

1. Two Weeks!
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Two Weeks!

In case you’re the type to lose track of time, we have only two weeks left in the season. This information is perhaps most relevant to owners with an innings deficit or surplus. For example, a 20 inning deficit means you’ll need to scrounge up two extra starts per week. That’s far from ideal given the quality of waiver pitchers at the end of the season. If you’re running a steep surplus, you’ll want to prepare for your league’s version of the inning cap exploit or whittle down your starts to only Kershaws and Bumgarners. Speaking of those two…well we’ll get to that later.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Yesterday, I received a 120X return on my investment playing DraftKings. Unfortunately, it just so happens that my success was the result of a mostly random NFL lineup and $0.25 of entries. Come reclaim my ill-gotten gains. We have the usual parameters today – $2 and 20 users on DraftKings.

3. Daily DFS 

Early: Is it just me, or are Carlos Rodon and Yordano Ventura constantly pitching against each other? In any event, they’re the lone day game today. No need to worry about them for DFS.

Late: The other 10 games are in the evening. Rain threatens Noah Syndergaard’s start against the Braves.

Remember when I said we’d get to it? The late-late match includes the classic matchup of Clayton Kershaw versus Madison Bumgarner. Kershaw is Kershaw, and the Dodgers can’t touch left-handed pitching. It’s mighty tempting to grab a share or two of these elite arms.

While not in the same class as Bumgarner or Kershaw, Rick Porcello is back on the bump. Nobody has been more consistent over the last couple months. He’s tossed at least seven innings in each of his last 10 starts. The Baltimore matchup is always a challenging one, but he escaped with just one solo home run in eight innings of work last week. He was somehow credited with the loss. Here’s hoping for a repeat performance and a win.

Beyond the top names, the Coors game features a couple interesting arms. Personally, I’m not confident about using Carlos Martinez or Tyler Anderson in their respective matchups, but they do make for tricksy GPP plays. If the slate wasn’t headlined by the double-headed Claydison BumShaw Monster, I’d like the idea of gambling on a Coors pitcher. As it stands, you’ll really need to spike the hitting to make this move pay.

Those hunting for a cheap second pitcher should consider Martin Perez. The lefty is a quiet core performer thanks to a high ground ball rate. He doesn’t pile on strikeouts or stifle opposing bats, but he’ll usually contribute something like a quality start. He only has to dodge a couple batters in the L.A. Trouts lineup.

Stack Targets: Clayton Richard, Aaron Blair, Jhoulys Chacin, Tim Adleman, Dylan Bundy, Jharel Cotton, Braden Shipley, Wei-Yin Chen, A.J. Cole, Brad Peacock, Marco Estrada

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim says Kershaw, Syndergaard, Cotton (?), Bumgarner, and Jason Hammel. I’m not sure I see Cotton recording a strikeout per inning after recording just five in his first 12 innings. I like his willingness to lean on a plus-plus changeup, but I think he’s more likely to be punished for a few mistakes than to thrive. As for Hammel, he’s pitched poorly in recent weeks. A regressionist will say “who cares” and try to leverage the lower ownership rate. I recommend checking the Cubs starting lineup before committing to Hammel.

Angels, Cubs, Red Sox, a Coors game, Diamondbacks, Padres, and Rangers comprise the top stacks.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: I suspect Sean Manaea is going to receive a lot of hype this offseason. He’s continually improved throughout the year and looked sharp in his return from a minor injury last week. Manaea isn’t completely immune to meltdowns. The lefty leans on a below average fastball complimented by a double-plus changeup and a good slider. His task this winter is to purge about half of those fastballs.

Also consider: Michael Pineda, Drew Smyly, Steven Brault, Joe Musgrove, Hisashi Iwakuma

Pitchers to Exploit: I wanted to recommend Archie Bradley against the Padres. As it turns out, the Friars have plenty of left-handed bats. Lefty swingers have hit .312/.404/.514 against Bradley this season. The Diamondbacks may want to consider redeploying him as a ROOGY.

Also consider: Eduardo Rodriguez, James Shields, Jake Thompson, Edinson Volquez, Josh Tomlin, Daniel Wright, A.J. Griffin, Matt Garza, Matt Boyd, Hector Santiago, Jorge de la Rosa, Paul Clemens

Hitters (power): Jumbo Ryan Schimpf is once again facing an extremely exploitable ground ball pitcher. Schimpf has extreme fly ball rates, Bradley burns the worms, and lefties torch the DBacks starter. Don’t forget the shuddersome Arizona bullpen. The formula screams multi-homer masterpiece.

Also consider: Alex Dickerson, Yangervis Solarte, Jon Jay, Franklin Gutierrez, Michael Saunders, Chase Utley, Robbie Grossman, Kennys Vargas, Chris Carter, Domingo Santana, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier, Freddy Galvis, Odubel Herrera, Ryan Howard, Cameron Rupp

Hitters (speed): If Jose Peraza reaches base against Jon Lester…

Also consider: Travis Jankowski, Luis Sardinas, Jorge Polanco, Cameron Maybin, Adam Frazier, Roman Quinn, Cesar Hernandez, Tim Anderson

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.