The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 12

Agenda

1. Massive Contests
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Massive Contests

DraftKings gave me a free $3 entry to their enormous Week 1 fantasy football contest. With 1.9 million entries and a $1 million top prize, I knew I had to get creative. I stopped following football in 2010 as a compromise. Baseball is now my first and only love among sports. Without any player knowledge, it would have been foolish for me to try to build a good lineup.

So I went for the gold. I zigged. With my eyes on the top prize I did some weird stuff and relied upon a chain of one percent outcomes. If they all hit, I’d have a shot to win the lottery. If not, at least the entry was free. This same concept can be applied to the largest baseball GPPs. While they never have 1.9 million entries, it’s still hard to beat 100,000 others using “smart” plays. To wrestle down that big score, you almost have to systematically select a sub-optimal lineup. In my experience, the easiest ways to do this are to choose an unpopular stack or leave $1,500+ on the table.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

We finally got a contest to run on Friday with the help of Yancy Eaton. Andrewconz took home the gold with five players chipping in about 20 points apiece. The leaderboard is updated.

I said we’d continue with the contests if it ran on Friday. Here is today’s 15 game masterpiece.

3. Daily DFS 

The top of the pool is awfully tempting today, mostly because the bottom is terrifying. The expensive names include Carlos Carrasco at U.S. Cellular Field, Kyle Hendricks in St. Louis, and David Price hosting the Orioles. They should all be considered heavy favorites for a win, although none of those matchups is a lock for value.

Gerrit Cole’s return versus the Phillies should draw a lot of attention. In a normal setting, I’d say it was the top play of the day. Since he’s returning from injury with an unknown pitching count, it’s hard to fully buy in. His price is such that you can still pick him while planning on a six inning outing.

The opposite end of the Cole start includes Jeremy Hellickson. The righty is a couple weeks with Ray Searage away from turning into a true stud. He has the stuff, he just need to put that fastball in his back pocket more often. Part of the Pirates offense are red hot while others are chilly.

Jose De Leon showed off some big strikeout stuff in his major league debut. He’s exactly the sort of pitcher who can debut and never look back. Contact management skills are of secondary importance to him since he’s all about inducing whiffs. Unfortunately, De Leon is visiting the Yankees. He’ll have to deal with that foul stadium (for pitchers) and a designated hitter.

If you want to surrender to frustration, Jeff Samardzija is hosting the Padres for tea. I generally pick against Samardzija. I’d feel better about the Padres if they weren’t playing in San Fran.

And if you’re looking for value among the dross, you should stop.

Stack Targets: Keyvius Sampson, Paul Clemens, Ariel Miranda, Bryan Mitchell, Ross Detwiler, Dillon Gee, Rafael Montero, Shelby Miller, Mat Latos, Doug Fister, Martin Perez, Wade Miley, Miguel Gonzalez, Andrew Cashner, Wily Peralta, Mike Leake, Daniel Norris, Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Francisco Liriano, Tyler Anderson

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim and I are out of sync today. First, it doesn’t “know” Cole is returning from injury so he narrowly edges Liriano (???) for the top spot. Liriano’s matchup against the Rays is fine. What’s not fine is his return from the bullpen. Expect no more than six innings. The Blue Jays can’t afford a Liriano meltdown, not when they have a perfectly able bullpen to handle the late innings. Carrasco, Price, and De Leon round out the top five.

Nationals, Angels, Red Sox, Reds, Astros, Blue Jays, and Cubs are the top stacking options per our favorite simulator.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: It’s been awhile since I’ve recommended CC Sabathia. The Dodgers are terrible versus left-handed pitching – a big problem for a playoff bound roster. Sabathia could put together a quality start with a handful of strikeouts.

Also consider: Julio Urias, Ivan Nova, Matt Boyd, Jharel Cotton, Robbie Ray

Pitchers to Exploit: Since joining the Padres rotation, Clayton Richard has a 0.90 ERA in 30 innings. I’m going to go ahead and keep betting against him. How do you feel about that?

While his peripherals aren’t nearly as drool worthy, his 3.47 FIP and 3.51 xFIP seem to agree that he’s pitched well. Richard is running an absurd 68.9 percent ground ball rate, making it at least feasible that he’s figured out the contact management game. It’s still probably a fluke.

Also consider: A.J. Cole, Alec Asher, Kyle Gibson, Jake Esch, Matt Wisler, Matt Garza, A.J. Griffin, Brad Peacock, Jorge de la Rosa, Alex Meyer, Taijuan Walker, Clayton Richard, Albert Suarez

Hitters (power): Justin Bour returned last week. He’s hit fifth, sixth, and seventh across three starts. A matchup against Wisler is good for getting his bat back in gear even if Atlanta has performed as one of the top pitchers’ parks this year.

Also consider: Jon Jay, Ryan Schimpf, Alex Dickerson, Yangervis Solarte, Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Stephen Cardullo, Rickie Weeks, Brandon Drury, Robbie Grossman

Hitters (speed): Here’s a weird one. If you don’t mind letting an offensive position lie three-fifths fallow, try Terrance Gore. The speedster has five runs and eight stolen bases in a plate appearance. Yep, that’s plate appearance in the singular. Since rejoining the roster on September 1, he’s pinch run five times, stolen six bases, and scored three times. Fun!

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Travis Jankowski, Delino DeShields, Jarrod Dyson, Jose Peraza, Ender Inciarte, Jace Peterson, Jorge Polanco, Cameron Maybin, Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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