The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 1

Agenda

1. Programming Notes
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Programming Notes

I’m going to be travelling to/at a wedding over the weekend. As such, the Daily Grind will be on hiatus until next Tuesday. You can try tweeting at me with questions, but I won’t be likely to answer them. My iPhone 3 shows me the tweets I’ve received, but it crashes if I try to open the app for a reply. So…I’ll only be responding during the rare moments I’m near a computer.

Also, I can’t believe it’s September. I’ve only watched parts of like 600 baseball games. How is it almost over?

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Congrats to TravisBecker for his heroic choice of Ricky Nolasco. TB was the only one with the stones to use Nolasco – queue the quote about bold strategies and cotton. His complete game shutout led to an easy victory with some help from Corey Kluber and Kris Bryant. The leaderboard is updated.

Today will be a true test of your gamesmanship. I considered switching us to a free FanDuel contest since there are only three games available. Instead, let’s pull out all the stops for DraftKings. We’ll have unprecedented overlap (and we already tend to have absurd overlap). Plan accordingly.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Jarred Cosart and Mike Foltynewicz occupy the lone early slot. In other words, we can /ignore.

Late: Three games are late so we might as well chat about everyone. I expect everybody to use one of Jose Quintana or Ervin Santana tonight. Target Field is relatively pitcher friendly, and the weather conditions look good for pitchers too (keep an eye on wind). Quintana and Santana both have the ability to toss complete games. Quintana obviously comes with better strikeout potential which is why he also costs more to roster.

Jacob deGrom is tempting for a couple non-obvious reasons. He’s been bombed in recent outings, posting negative scores on DraftKings. His most recent start was skipped so he could work on mechanical issues. The extra rest could help him get back to supplying big point totals. And if the recent scuffles suppress his ownership, all the better.

Of course, if deGrom flops again, you’ll probably want a piece of super cheap Jose Urena. The righty will toss between five and six innings, and he’s flashed enough stuff to believe he can survive an outing. His 95 mph fastball is the headliner though he’s also getting better with his slider and change.

Last and quite possibly least is the Cubs game. Jeff Samardzija is always scary. He has the occasional complete gem up his sleeve. The Cubs lineup should dismantle him, except they’re quite right-handed. Righties have a .285 wOBA versus Shark compared to a .336 wOBA for lefties.

Mike Montgomery is the short man on the totem pole. He’s the most likely of the six to throw fewer than five innings. If he was opposed by, say, the Brewers, I’d be happy to gamble on his strikeout stuff. Unfortunately, the Giants aren’t big participants on the punch out train.

4. SaberSim Observations

deGrom, Quintana, Montgomery, Santana, and Samardzija are the favorites of SaberSim. Sorry for ya Urena. All of the stacks make sense.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Junior Guerra is scheduled to return from the disabled list tomorrow. And he has a solid matchup against the Pirates. Guerra pitched well during a single rehab appearance at Colorado Springs. He allowed three base runners – two via walk – in 3.1 innings. There are two issues with Guerra tomorrow. Splitters are finicky pitches. It’s easy to lose your feel for it while resting. If he’s tossing hangers, they’ll get hammered. Even if he does pitch well, he probably won’t last much more than five innings.

Also consider: Chad Green, Alex Reyes, Francisco Liriano, Julio Urias

Pitchers to Exploit: Alex Cobb is also back from the disabled list. And while a healthy Cobb is better than Guerra, I’m not going anywhere near this one. In eight appearances split between High- and Triple-A, Cobb posted a 6.65 ERA with middling peripherals. To my nose, he doesn’t smell ready. He’s certainly not ready to take on the Blue Jays.

Also consider: Matt Cain, Joel de la Cruz, Andrew Cashner, A.J. Cole, A.J. Griffin, Kyle Gibson, Anibal Sanchez, Robbie Ray, Jorge de la Rosa, Brett Oberholtzer, Ariel Miranda, Clayton Richard

Hitters (power): Rickie Weeks lost his cleanup job versus southpaws. A.J. Pollock triggered a chain reaction. Fortunately, Weeks fell all the way down to fifth in the order. He’s been the grand poobah of lefty mashing this season with a .297/.384/.672 line (tiny sample). More importantly, he has a good role against a beatable pitcher at Coors Field.

Also consider: Franklin Gutierrez, C.J. Cron, Jefry Marte, Gregorio Petit, Jett Bandy, Ryan Raburn, Brandon Drury, Chris Owings, Nick Hundley, Michael Saunders, Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall, Josh Bell, Aaron Altherr, Pedro Alvarez

Hitters (speed): The Phillies are up against the stolen base prone Braves which means it’s a good time to dust off Cesar Hernandez. He’s a high average/OBP type and also happens to bat first.

Also consider: Jarrod Dyson, Tim Anderson, Freddy Galvis

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.