The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 31

Agenda

1. Fun with Leaderboards
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Fun with Leaderboards

We’re now two months into the season which means we have leaderboards that mean a little something. I’ll probably spend the next few days glancing at various splits and discussing them. Unless something shinier comes along.

Today, I’ve pulled up the top performers versus left-handed pitching, minimum 30 plate appearances. To be clear, the sample sizes involved here are ridiculously small. Few players have over 60 plate appearances against lefties this season. Given the tiny sample involved, the guys on this list have at least one of two things going for them – a sky high BABIP and/or a gaudy ISO.

The leader, Marcell Ozuna, has both – a .464 BABIP and .475 ISO. The Red Sox and Rays both have three representatives in the top 20 with Steve Pearce (second) performing the best. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Brandon Belt are the only lefties in the top 30. Mashing lefties is a right-handed man’s game.

Here’s the leaderboard (sorted by wRC+) if you’re interested in looking more closely.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

I’m back in action. We have a little housekeeping from last Thursday to address – congratulations to jaystellmach. Masahiro Tanaka, Jonathan Lucroy, Jonathan Villar, and Adam Duvall carried him to victory. I was hoping to list a third Jonathan. The leaderboard is go.

And here we are back on DraftKings for our usual $2, 30 user contest.

3. Daily DFS 

Early: There’s a three game “early” contest starting at 3:40 pm ET. All of the pitching options have some degree of allure. There isn’t really an obvious must-play pick – mostly because Corey Kluber has been homer prone this year. Kluber will probably be the most popular pitcher of the time slot, making Colby Lewis a sneak fade.

Stack Targets: Pat Corbin

Late: It’s a pricey evening for pitchers. Jake Arrieta has a firm advantage versus Scott Kazmir. Jose Fernandez and Gerrit Cole are opposite each other. Steven Matz has pitched like an ace over his last seven appearances. He’ll face Mat Latos.

Among the cheaper options, there are interesting matchups. Aaron Nola is hosting Joe Ross at Citizen’s Bank Park. Nola is a steady source of six to seven innings with a like number of strikeouts. Ross introduces more volatility, but he also faces an easy-to-defeat offense. The Phillies have a 75 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. The Nationals are only slightly better with a Bryce Harper buoyed 87 wRC+.

If boring veterans are your thing, CC Sabathia is visiting J.A. Happ. Homer prevention has led Sabathia to the promised land of sub-3.00 ERAs. Through 41 innings, he has a 2.83 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 4.33 xFIP. In the parlance of “due,” somebody is due to take him deep tonight. Nothing is different about Sabathia this year except that he throws even slower and may have slightly better command. I like the Happ side of the matchup, but I wish he had a better strikeout and whiff rate for his price.

Stack Targets: Eric Surkamp, Jon Moscot, Jake Peavy, Wily Peralta, Matt Wisler, Jon Gray, Anibal Sanchez, Dillon Gee, Mat Latos, Hector Santiago, Eduardo Rodriguez

4. SaberSim Observations

Fernandez, Arrieta, and three from the early slate (Kluber, Lance McCullers, and Hisashi Iwakuma) top the pitcher list for the day. Cole, Nola, Drew Smyly, Matz, and Happ round out the list of plus projections. I spoke semi-positively about Sabathia, but SaberSim hates him.

There’s a Coors game (postponement risk). Cardinals at Miller Park and Red Sox in Baltimore are the other top projected stacks.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Michael Fulmer appears to be settling into major league work. The only issue with his numbers is a 17.2 percent HR/FB ratio. It’s too soon to guess if he’s truly homer prone or just unfortunate. With 9.53 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, and a 3.97 ERA, he’s outright ownable in 12-team leagues. He only has to avoid one dangerous bat in the Angels lineup, and he should get run support opposite the Peddler.

Also consider: Aaron Sanchez, Robbie Ray

Pitchers to Exploit: Many fantasy analysts liked Adam Conley earlier this spring. Unfortunately, it’s become clear that his command can come and go. His 4.15 BB/9 doesn’t include his five hit batters. His five wild pitches rank second worst in the majors. The matchup versus the lefty slaying Pirates is a tough one. If he’s also wild, he’ll be in trouble.

Also consider: Miguel Gonzalez, Zach Davies, Pat Dean, Sean Manaea, Trevor Bauer, Joe Kelly, Mike Wright, Matt Shoemaker, Adam Morgan, Albert Suarez, Williams Perez, Jon Niese, Mike Bolsinger, Mike Fiers, Danny Duffy, John Lamb, Tyler Chatwood, Christian Friedrich

Hitters (power): So many wonderful platoon bats have the advantage tomorrow. Most of the names speak for themselves. I’m conducting the Robbie Grossman bandwagon. In 38 plate appearances, he’s hitting .313/.421/.594 with as many walks as strikeouts. He has the raw tools to maintain similar numbers. A passive approach at the plate burned him in past seasons.

Also consider: Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-ho Lee, Chris Iannetta, Ryan Raburn, Mark Reynolds, Steve Pearce, Brandon Guyer, Taylor Motter, Mikie Mahtook, Jake Lamb, Sean Rodriguez, David Freese, Jayson Werth, Danny Valencia, Josh Phegley, James Loney

Hitters (speed): Michael Taylor should be in the lineup for what may be Morgan’s final start in the majors (for now). Taylor has six stolen bases despite a .235 OBP. He runs when he gets the chance.

Also consider: Cameron Maybin, Coco Crisp, Eduardo Nunez

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

You may have noticed on Saturday, I’ve updated the factor grid to list ballparks instead of team names. I assume that’s slightly more intuitive. Watch out for Denver and Kansas City tonight. And maybe Chicago too.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.