The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 10

Agenda

1. Strasburg Hot Take
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Strasburg Hot Take

Guess what? I don’t really have a strong reaction to the Strasburg extension. Pitcher extensions seem to be a particularly poor investment of large quantities of money. However, there’s no question Strasburg could have pushed $210MM or more on the free agent market – if he’s healthy.

Of course, health is the big issue. Per Jeff Zimmerman’s research, Strasburg’s elbow could blow up for TJS #2 at any time. If I were a betting man, I’d project about three more strong seasons out of Strasburg. That’s my standard expectation for just about any pitcher on top of their game. Some give you five, most give you one or two.

Incidentally, that’s when his opt outs (reportedly) kick in. Either the Nats “win” their bet and lose some potentially cost effective seasons, or they’ll be saddled with a broken asset for another three or four years.

I’m glad I’m not an owner these days. I don’t have the stomach to play this mega-deal opt out game. (Of course, I wish I had the cash to be an owner 🙂

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Apparently, I need to take lessons from rpimble. He’s won yet again with the help of Jose Fernandez, Jake Lamb, and Carlos Beltran. The leaderboard is updated.

We’re back on DraftKings today for a 30-user contest. Let’s get it filled up. Remember, DK offers a free $20 ticket if you sign up for the site through my referral.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Jon Lester’s start was bumped to today. He’s still opposed by Cesar Vargas in a very winnable matchup against the Padres. Otherwise, it’s not a good day for pitching. Jacob deGrom isn’t as good as last year, but his price tag is still in the stratosphere. Masahiro Tanaka is home – I always avoid him there. Drew Smyly is opposite a solid Mariners offense.

After allowing two hits over his last 13 innings, Adam Conley is gaining notoriety. The southpaw is pitching at home versus the Brewers. I’m not a fan of his price tag – $8,400 on FanDuel. I’d be more keen on him for around $7,100. Still, the matchup is solid for him given decent strikeout ability and a modest opponent.

Kevin Gausman should be popular tonight. The righty has pitched well since returning from the disabled list. He’s been visually impressive too. Squinting at the stat sheet, I’m worried nothing has changed except for the results. The first time he runs into adversity could reveal the old Gausman. He’s against the Twins. Remember Tanner Roark.

Like a moth to a flame, I’m fascinated by Adam Morgan. The command and control southpaw has decent strikeout stuff including a plus change and slider. He needs to learn how to work his pitches outside of the zone to succeed in the majors. His minor league opponents don’t force him to get crafty. The Braves field a minor league quality offense, giving Morgan plenty of upside. Expect no more than six innings.

Stack Targets: Sean O’Sullivan, Chris Rusin, Matt Cain, Sean Manaea, Zach Davies, Matt Wisler, Morgan, Mike Leake, Kris Medlen, Rubby de la Rosa, Alfredo Simon, Cesar Vargas, Wade Miley, Trevor Bauer, Alex Wood

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim likes Lester, Smyly, Hector Santiago, Wood, and Tanaka. Of those, the only guy I’d absolutely steer clear of is Wood. On a day of many stacks, the Coors game, Cubs, Pirates, and Astros stand out from the crowd.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Kyle Hendricks has run support, and he’ll face the San Diego Atrocity. Hendricks is a soft-tosser so I doubt he’ll post a high strikeout rate. He should keep the Pad People off the board over roughly six innings.

Also consider: Jerad Eickhoff, Wei-Yin Chen

Pitchers to Exploit: I remain supremely confident in Mat Latos terriblisity. His stuff sucks, and he’s not missing bats. If the Rangers don’t put up at least a run per inning, I’ll be stumped. I’ve now watched four Latos starts and I don’t understand how he isn’t a 7.00 ERA pitcher.

Also consider: Colin Rea, Phil Hughes, Tyler Wilson, Doug Fister, Robbie Ray, Chad Bettis, Michael Pineda, Yordano Ventura, Erik Surkamp, Jhoulys Chacin, Tim Adleman, Chase Anderson

Hitters (power): If you had any doubts about starting Jake Lamb at Coors Field, consider them allayed. Yes, I’m making that decision for you. He went 2-for-5 with a homer, triple, three runs, and four RBI. He’ll sit tonight against a lefty, but he’ll be back in action against a righty tomorrow.

Also consider: Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour, John Jaso, David Freese, Ryan Howard, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Raburn, Joe Mauer

Hitters (speed): Braves should-be leadoff man Ender Inciarte is back in action. He’s currently batting second which is a fine consolation prize. The lefty has a hint of power and good speed. A matchup against Eickhoff is favorable even if the rest of his team is too busy tanking.

Also consider: Jonathan Villar, Cesar Hernandez, Rajai Davis

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Do watch out for rain in Cincinnati.

The Link.

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