The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for June 30

Agenda

1. Roto Riteup Splits
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Roto Riteup Splits

In case you’re not a compulsive Roto Riteup Reader, today’s edition includes some interesting splits data, the findings of which could be salient to your DFS planning. In particular, a few teams – the Twins, Orioles, and Rockies –  seem to have a strikeout problem when playing on the road. It’s not known if these splits are significant. The Rockies certainly pass the smell test, but we already knew to exploit their offense away from Coors.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Yesterday’s contest failed to fill. We’ll be heading back to FanDuel today.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The early crew is a tidy three games. We have four pitchers worthy of consideration and two who look like obvious exploits. As such, it could be wise to fade in big GPPs with either A.J. Griffin at New York or Tommy Milone at The Cell. Personally, I’m inclined to play it straight by using one of Kenta Maeda, Carlos Rodon, Michael Pineda, or Zach Davies. Of those, I see Pineda as possessing the top ceiling. As we just noted, the Twins do whiff a lot on the road which is good for Rodon.

Stack Targets: Milone, Griffin

Late: Eight games are in the late slate. The Giants are playing an interleague game at Oakland. Madison Bumgarner has a tasty matchup. Interestingly, he’ll bat for himself. In college baseball, a starting pitcher can also serve as the designated hitter. I’m not sure how major league rules handle a pitcher hitting in an American League game.

The other ace of the night is Carlos Carrasco. I may steer clear – he’s opposed by the Blue Jays. Similarly, Steven Matz is a good pitcher, but I’m not taking his squeaky elbow versus the Cubs. No way, no how. I’d absolutely consider John Lackey on the flip side of the matchup. Lackey’s a consistent pitcher with the occasional big point total. The Mets offense is hurting these days.

Wei-Yin Chen is a popular streaming option for today, but I don’t quite see enough upside for GPP play. The reason for the popularity is the Braves offense. Specifically, Chen will be pitching to the Braves. Chen’s struggled with home runs this year, just like Atlanta. We’ll see which cold element is relatively warm. Chen happens to be the cheapest pitcher I’d think about using.

Stack Targets: Chris Young, Dillon Overton, Brandon Finnega, Mike Foltynewicz, Mike Leake, R.A. Dickey, Gio Gonzalez

4. SaberSim Observations

Usually, my picks turn out to be very similar to SaberSim’s. Unsurprisingly, it’s not hard to tag the guys who will have the top projections. Today’s a little different. SaberSim lists Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Pineda, Gonzalez, and Lackey as the top five. Bumgarner is middle of the pack. I can’t generate any enthusiasm for Gonzalez in any setting. Walker at least has some upside in GPPs opposite the Orioles. Don’t be surprised if he ruins your roster.

Stacks are provided by the Nationals, Dodgers, Marlins, Giants, White Sox, Brewers, Cardinals, and Yankees.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: On a day with several possible but risky streaming options, Nathan Eovaldi takes the cake and eats it too. The hard throwing righty is having a curious season with an unusually high 21.3 percent HR/FB ratio. In his previous five seasons, he posted no worse than an 8.1 percent HR/FB. That’s why his 5.19 ERA looks a lot worse than his 3.86 xFIP. The real reason you’ll want Eovaldi is his opponent – the Padres. They can’t hit righties.

Also consider: Ian Kennedy, Jeremy Hellickson, Ervin Santana, Kevin Gausman

Pitchers to Exploit: I recently read that the Marlins are excited about Justin Nicolino because they’ve convinced him to stop using his terrible cutter. I think that’s an oversimplification of the problem. His normal fastball is terrible too, as is his breaking ball. I’ll allow that he possesses a visually plus changeup, but only a few changeups can work without a good fastball. Prime Johan Santana probably could have gotten away with a minus fastball. Nicolino? Not so much.

Also consider: Jhoulys Chacin, Drew Smyly, Martin Perez, Miguel Gonzalez, Mike Fiers, Matt Garza, Shelby Miller, John Locke, Wade LeBlanc, Jorge de la Rosa, Colin Rea

Hitters (power): As usual, Nolan Reimold’s platoon game is on point. Oh, wait, that’s backwards. He has a 132 wRC+ versus righties compared to a 72 wRC+ against lefties. I’m just going to cry small sample and wait for a correction. His strikeout rate is terrible against both hands. LeBlanc is a minor league quality pitcher, otherwise I wouldn’t be highlighting Reimold.

Also consider: Trayce Thompson, Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Robbie Grossman, Byung-ho Park, Adonis Garcia, Tyler Flowers

Hitters (speed): Joey Rickard is the first Oriole to target. He’s a .297/.342/.486 hitter versus southpaws with improved power and contact rates. He doesn’t run when lefties are on the bump.

Also consider: Travis Jankowski, Angel Pagan, Tim Anderson

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.