The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for June 21

Agenda

1. Fantasy Regression Lessons
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Fantasy Regression Lessons

Yesterday on the main site, Jeff Sullivan wrote about the Cardinals incredibly poor timing. Both their run and OPS differentials imply a much better winning percentage than their actual win-loss record. In my experience, the fantasy version of this happens frequently in H2H leagues. I use Roto scoring as a proxy for how a team should be performing. There are small flaws with this approach specifically related to innings pitched.

In a league I share with my former college teammates, I’ve experienced the lucky and unlucky ends of the spectrum. A couple years ago, I had the best Roto record and miss the H2H playoffs. The top 50 percent of the league – six teams – make the playoffs. I was the Cardinals that year. Last year, I ran away with the regular season, finished second in the playoffs, and had the fifth best Roto record.

In his article, Jeff makes the following note:

But it’s important to understand how regression to the mean doesn’t work. The Cardinals’ bad timing is already in the books. Those missing wins will forever remain missing. Going forward, we shouldn’t look for the Cardinals to outplay the expectation — we should look for them to hit it right on. Which would be only a modest help.

We can go a step farther. The Cardinals performance should match what the differentials predict, but we should probably also expect those differentials to decline. Here’s me commenting on the subject:

When a team/player is doing something substantially better (or worse) than average we can just about expect them to move towards average without any further analysis (it’s still helpful to do more analysis). So not only are the wins lost. Not only should we not expect the Cardinals to outperform these measures going forward. The Cardinals will probably also post lesser run and OPS differentials RoS. And they should play to those lesser differentials.

The same conclusions apply directly to fantasy teams. Of course, all winning fantasy teams are lucky. It’s your job to create an opportunity to be lucky. So don’t give up just because regression says the deck is stacked against you.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Congratulations are in order for gmijboys. Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Ian Desmond, Byrce Harper, Michael Pineda, Jonathan Lucroy, and Adrian Beltre all contributed 17 or more points. I opted to find budget for David Ortiz (55 percent owned) because I thought HanRam (10 percent owned) would be ludicrously popular. I’m terrible at predicting popularity. My “fades” are always twice as rostered as my original pick. Except when I stick with the original pick..

In any case, the leaderboard is updated. We’ll return to FanDuel today.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: A two game early slate begins at noon-oh-five. Stephen Strasburg is opposite Julio Urias with Chris Tillman and CC Sabathia pairing off in New York. I like three game slates, but two-gamers are a mite shallow for my tastes. I only play them if the pitchers are all comparable.

Late: The other seven games are late. If you were hoping for aces, sorry for ya. The top arm of the slate is Steven Wright. I’m always worried about using the knuckleballer. The Red Sox should give him plenty of run support at the very least. Wright will host the Twins.

Adam Wainwright looks like he’s back. He’s opposed by strikeout-prone, righty-prone Padres. Over his last three starts, Waino has thrown 23 innings with 19 strikeouts, 15 hits, and five walks. Andrew Cashner is on the other side of this one. There are rumors he might be dealt prior to his start.

Jerad Eickhoff may find it harder to pull out a win thanks to the Phillies tepid offense. He should pitch relatively well against the Marlins. They don’t have scary left-handed bats. Eickhoff generally does well versus righties.

Bargain hunters will not Tom Koehler draws the Phillies and Chad Bettis hosts the Braves at Coors Field. Koehler’s semi-rare good days run about 45 FD points. Bettis tends to cap around 40 FD points.

Stack Targets: Mike Pelfrey, Matt Garza, Tyler Duffey, Bettis, Koehler, Mike Foltynewicz, Cashner, James Shields, Sonny Gray, Francisco Liriano, Matt Moore

4. SaberSim Observations

Strasburg, Liriano, Waino, Eickhoff, and Gray top the charts according to SaberSim. I am not going anywhere near Liriano versus the Brewers. I think they’ll stomp him flat. SaberSim is putting too much weight on irrelevant performances in 2014 and 2015.

There’s a Coors game and a homer friendly pitcher starting for the Braves. The Marlins, Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, and Twins round out the stacking targets.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: When he’s healthy, Brandon McCarthy is so underappreciated. The Dodgers are scheduled to visit St. Louis tomorrow with McCarthy opposite Michael Wacha. BMac has a 1.69 ERA (1.96 FIP) with 12.38 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 through his first three starts. The good version of McCarthy has a history of home run problems. Buyer beware.

Also consider: Adam Conley, Archie Bradley

Pitchers to Exploit: I know we’ve seen Dylan Bundy touted as a prospect for a thousand years. Do yourself a favor and bet on the opposite side of his starts. He’s pretty bad. He skated by as a reliever, and he’ll be hopelessly overexposed as a starter.

Also consider: Luis Perdomo, James Paxton, Kyle Gibson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jacob Turner, Jon Gray, Julio Teheran, Sean Manaea, Dan Straily

Hitters (power): You don’t see much said about Ryan Rua. Versus left-handed pitching, he’s batting .338/.410/.521 (.404 BABIP) with a tolerable 21.7 percent strikeout rate. Rua has seven home runs and seven steals in 207 plate appearances. In other words, he’s on a 25-25 pace over a full season. He’s opposed by Duffy.

Also consider: Brandon Guyer, Chase Utley, Alex Bregman, Wilmer Flores, Derek Dietrich, Robbie Grossman, John Jaso, Tyler Naquin

Hitters (speed): The Tigers are using Cameron Maybin as their second hitter. So far, it’s working. He’s batting .330/.392/.395 with good contact rates and 10 steals in 223 plate appearances. The White ox are sacrificing Jacob Turner tomorrow.

Also consider: Ender Inciarte, Michael Bourn, Jose Peraza, Ben Revere, Trea Turner

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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