The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for June 1

Agenda

1. Team wRC+
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Team wRC+

It’s officially June. Time for more fun with leaderboards. Yesterday, we talked about lefty-mashing hitters. The data is a little less fluky when we zoom out to the team level. Check it out. The top of the list is mostly who we expect – the Red Sox, Rays, Pirates, and Nationals. One team is conspicuously missing. The Blue Jays are the 15th ranked club versus left-handed pitching with a meager 95 wRC+. I expect them to be top five (if not top one) over the rest of the season.

The bottom of the list is informative too. The Braves, Phillies, and Twins are terrible in general. They’re especially bad against lefties. The Twins have rebound potential, but the Braves and Phillies should continue to be easy exploits. The Yankees have also been bad.

Against right-handed pitching, the Red Sox, Mariners, and Cardinals pace the league. This all passes the smell test. I do believe the Boston lineup is scheduled for some regression. They’re good, but they’re not the best offense against lefties AND righties. Right? The Braves, Padres, Phillies, and Reds are the laggards. They’ll continue to lag. If there’s one team I’d pick to rebound, it’s the Rangers with their 91 wRC+. I see that as a 110 wRC+ lineup. Here’s the link.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Yesterday’s winner was spx333. He had the balls to use the rainy Coors game, and now he reaps the spoils of 17 runs. The leaderboard is updated.

We’re back on DraftKings today for $2 and 30 users. The regular invite list now includes 15 people. If you’re not on it, snap up your spot quickly. For whatever reason, 30 user contests fill quickly and 35 user contests don’t fill at all.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Four games are in the early bundle. You’ll have to fly blind on the Rangers-Indians due to a 6:10 start time. The pitchers are Jake deGrom, Cole Hamels, Jaime Garcia, and five guys who will probably pitch very poorly. Personally, I’d go with Hamels or Garcia.

Stack Targets: Zack Davies, Pat Dean, Sean Manaea, Miguel Gonzalez, Trevor Bauer

Late: The other 11 games are late. There is speculation that the Mariners are going to bump Felix Hernandez’s start for James Paxton. In either case, a matchup against the Padres is a big plus. King Felix is a little too royally priced for my taste – $11,000 on both sites.

Max Scherzer is easily the top pitcher opposite the Phillies. As we’ve already noted, Philadelphia has the third worst offense against right-handed pitching. Scherzer ain’t your ordinary righty. He’s had this weird command issue this lead which has led to home runs and bouts of wildness. He’s an auto-win opposite lefty Adam Morgan. Remember, the Nats are good against lefties. Plus Morgan is bad.

I’d give some consideration to Jon Lester and Chris Archer, if only because they should be less popular. Scherzer is an easy bet to outperform them, but they should hold their own against the Dodgers and Royals respectively.

If you’re looking for cheaper fare, Michael Fulmer has a good matchup against the L.A. Trouts. It’s kind of funny that teams still pitch to him yet they’ll walk Bryce Harper all day. Harper has an actual supporting cast. Mike Trout’s all alone.

Robbie Ray is a high risk, medium reward option. He picks up his share of strikeouts, and the Astros should cooperate. They may also bash several extra base hits.

Stack Targets: John Lamb, Christian Friedrich, Mike Bolsinger, Morgan, Mike Wright, Williams Perez, Ray, Danny Duffy, Mike Fiers, Jon Niese, Matt Shoemaker, Joe Kelly, Tyler Chatwood, Adam Conley

4. SaberSim Observations

Scherzer is projected to outscore the next best pitcher by near 10 points on FanDuel. And that second best pitcher is…Fiers? Color me confused. I think that’s a light shade of aquamaitan. DeGrom, Lester, and Garcia round out the top five. Phew, back to the rational world.

The Coors game, Red Sox, Cardinals, Pirates, Astros, Nationals, and Giants come highly recommended as stacks today. Let it not be said you lack for options.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: The Padres aren’t a bad team against left-handed pitching, but they still aren’t a good offense either. Wade Miley should have a good shot at a win and a quality start. Nothing complicated here. He won’t drive you to a strikeout win or spare your ratios.

Also consider: Chase Anderson, Jerad Eickhoff

Pitchers to Exploit: The Reds bullpen is going to mighty tired by the end of this Coors Field series. Alfredo Simon will probably be terrible. He’s also the rare pitcher who will probably improve his ERA at Coors. After all, it’s hard to go up from a 9.60 ERA.

Also consider: Aaron Blair, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wei-Yin Chen, Michael Pineda, Matt Boyd, Eddie Butler, Colin Rea

Hitters (power): Left-handed hitters have a .371 wOBA versus Eickhoff. Scooter Gennett is a not-especially-powerful left-handed hitter. He’s also not entirely without power thanks to an offseason workout regimen. This is as good a day as any to go for it with Gennett. Plus you should get some other kind of hit as a side bonus.

Also consider: Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Sean Rodriguez, David Freese, Tommy Joseph, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Brandon Drury

Hitters (speed): Go ol’ Melvin Upton has six home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a 99 wRC+. It’s almost as if he’s a real, viable major league player. Strangely, he’s spraying the ball to all fields and hitting few inning flies. A pull-centric approach with way too many infield flies have doomed him in the past few seasons.

Also consider: Aaron Hicks, Cameron Maybin, Ichiro Suzuki

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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