The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for August 9
Agenda
- Fantasy Chat Today
- The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
- Daily DFS
- SaberSim Observations
- Tomorrow’s Targets
- Factor Grid
1. Fantasy Chat Today
This is a friendly reminder that I’ll be having a RotoGraphs chat at 1:45 pm ET this afternoon. Topics to be decided by you, the chatee. Or are you the chatter? I think I’m probably the chatter, but maybe you’re also the chatter?
Some tips and tricks to have your comment selected include:
- Ask something that actually requires a second opinion and/or my expertise. I’ll ignore requests for handholding.
- Do not ask me to rank a list of players. I will ignore you.
- I appreciate non-baseball or real baseball questions as a change of pace.
- Ask your question right at 1:45.
- Don’t bother asking a question between 1:50 and 2:10. I won’t see it.
- If you miss the early window, wait for me to say something like “I’m way behind, I’m going to skip forward,” before posting your question.
On those final three points, I usually spend the first 20+ minutes answering everything that comes in. Then I notice the questions are from 1:50 and it’s already after 2:10. So I skip forward to the present. There’s usually one more skip later, but I can’t warn you ahead of time as to how to dodge it.
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
Congratulations to jourgensen who pulled off a closely contended contest. Yasmani Grandal and Edwin Encarnacion provided just enough thump for the victory. The leaderboard is updated.
Today is Tuesday and Tuesday is a DraftKings day. See ya there.
3. Daily DFS
Early: This is the part where I make the joke about the cheese because the Rangers and Rockies stand alone today. Too bad we all miss out on a Coors game.
Late: The other 14 games are in the evening. Max Scherzer is the king of his slate versus @BauerOutage. Trevor Bauer is capable of reeling off fantastic outings. It’s not out of the question that he’ll rise to the occasion. Most probably, he’ll hand Scherzer and the Nationals a relatively easy win.
Chris Sale and the return of Zack Greinke round out the available aces. Sale is a good play at Kansas City while I might hold off on Greinke. He only made one rehab start, and it wasn’t all that good. The D’Backs are opposed by inconsistent Steven Matz and the Mets.
It’s a solid day for Rick Porcello against the ghost of the Yankees lineup. They’re finally escaping the dregs of their roster from the 1990s, but the intermediary product is almost Phillies bad. (That’s hyperbole). Porcello is opposed by high risk, high reward youngster Luis Severino.
John Lackey is hosting Jered Weaver. I smell a blow out. My team recently faced the Jered Weaver of our mens league. He threw a complete game with the help of about 20 line outs and just missed home runs. The Cubs could conceivably do the same.
Either side of Tom Koehler versus Matt Moore could be a core performer – perfect for DraftKings, not so much for FanDuel. They’ll be squaring off in Miami. Wade Miley should have an easy win in Oakland against Zach Neal.
Stack Targets: Neal, Wily Peralta, Tyrell Jenkins, Luis Perdomo, Weaver, Wade LeBlanc, Daniel Norris, Brandon Finnegan, Chad Kuhl, Drew Smyly
4. SaberSim Observations
Scherzer, Kenta Maeda, Sale, Matz, and Greinke comprise the top five today. As you know, I’m passing on Matz and Greinke. I’m also having a little trouble jumping on the Maeda hype train despite a matchup against the Phillies.
Per SimmerSabe, stacks include the Nationals, Astros, Cubs, Brewers, Braves!, Trout, Red Sox, and Blue Jays.
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
Pitchers to Start: I (and others) have been saying for a long time that Robbie Ray could be a future monster. He hasn’t reached his breakthrough moment yet, but he’s getting closer. His strikeout rate is up to 11.31 K/9 (27.9 K%). Unfortunately, he’s dodging his spotty command by throwing fatballs (yes, fatballs). As a result, he has an elevated BABIP and HR/FB rate. Now that he has the whiffs, his next task is to sharpen his command and learn to induce weak contact. His strikeout rate will probably decline as he develops these skills.
He’s opposite a banged up Mets lineup tomorrow.
Also consider: Bartolo Colon, Ervin Santana
Pitchers to Exploit: Ross Detwiler has surfaced from the Cleveland bullpen. He’s scheduled to start for the A’s tomorrow. I recall when I was convinced Detwiler would be a useful back of the rotation pitcher. The Nationals bumped him when they built their super bullpen. Injuries and lousy performances did the rest. Now 30, Detwiler is two years removed from respectable numbers.
Also consider: David Phelps, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Vogelsong, Jorge de la Rosa, Martin Perez, Ricky Nolasco, Joel de la Cruz, Chase Anderon, Yovani Gallardo
Hitters (power): Ryan Rua mashes left-handed pitchers. I’d share the exact numbers, but the site is hiccuping. Sir Rua is also playing at Coors Field. End analysis.
Also consider: Derek Dietrich, Stephen Vogt, Tommy La Stella, Ryan Raburn, Mark Reynolds, Matt Joyce, Tommy Joseph, Aaron Altherr, Cameron Rupp
Hitters (speed): Keep leaning on Brewers versus the Braves. If Perez isn’t available, try Gennett or Arcia.
Also consider: Tim Anderson, Hernan Perez, Scooter Gennett, Orlando Arcia, Rajai Davis, Denard Span, Angel Pagan
6. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Perhaps, you are the Chat (sing.), we are the Chatter (pl.)?
Sir Rua will indeed mash but will be doing so at sea level
Stupid home/away series…
I thought maybe Bauer had turned the corner earlier this year, but a closer look at his numbers leads me to believe he just had a favorable run of matchups. He was promoted to the rotation on 4/30 and his 1st 7 starts he gave up 3, 3, 0, 3, 4, 3, 3 runs. The 1st 2 starts were short as they were stretching him out and only 2 of the starts went 7 IP. No disaster starts but nothing exciting.
He then goes on a really nice run for 6 starts giving up 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 0 earned runs (plus 1 UER in there) along with plenty of K’s (twice hitting 10). Seemed like maybe he had turned the corner. However in looking at it more closely, those games were Mariners, Angels, White Sox, Rays and Braves. The Mariners are currently 9th in wOBA but I think they were lower at that time, The Angels are not very good if you can get by Trout (Trout was 2-4 off Bauer, both singles). The other 3 are just not very good offensively.
Then on 7/1, Bauer came in and threw 5 IP and 83 pitches of relief on 3 days’ rest in that 19 inning game with Toronto. Since then he’s gone back to old Bauer with 5, 3, 5, 2 and 7 runs. His FIP and xFIP are basically where they’ve always been and that really nice 6 start stretch is now a distant memory.
This is not the first time I’ve thought Bauer might be turning a corner. He has just enough stuff and more than enough brain to be much better than he is. All he needs is better command of the repertoire. That can often happen spontaneously.
I do have a new theory about his performance. I was always a very mechanically oriented player like Bauer. Occasionally, I discovered a new “feel” that produced excellent results. Over time, emphasizing that feel pushed my mechanics out of whack. Then I needed a new feel to get back on top. Think of it as trying to balance a pin on its point.
When I talk to players who are less cerebral with their play, they say that’s not how they experience it.
For DFS purposes, I think Miley is a guy to target with A’s tonight. Semien, K. Davis, Valencia, Butler all seem like guys that can do some damage. I would not consider rolling him out.
What I’ve learned with A’s this year is to never stack them. However, a one-off of KDavis, Valencia, or Semien can be valuable.