The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for August 31

Agenda

1. Surprise Rainouts
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Surprise Rainouts

I had a dream that my Indians stack went wild, Mike Trout and Kris Bryant both double-homered, and Tyler Anderson tossed a gem. Aside from a big game from Rajai Davis, none of that really happened. And to add insult to injury, Anderson’s start was cancelled. When I checked lineups around 6:00pm, there was basically no risk of rain in Colorado – certainly nothing more than a passing blip. The moral of this story, insofar as there is one, is that weather can be unpredictable. Especially in Colorado.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Rojito got big games from C.J. Cron, Eugenio Suarez, and Asdrubal Cabrera. Big congrats on the unlikely combination – they combined for four home runs. The leaderboard is updated. Today’s contest is also on DraftKings.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Six games are early. My analysis regarding Tyler Anderson remains true today. He’s super cheap despite an excellent matchup against the lefty-prone Dodgers. Sure, the game is at Coors, but that hasn’t deterred Anderson against better opponents. He’s further upgraded because L.A. decided to sacrifice Ross Stripling in the first game of today’s doubleheader.

Chris Sale against Justin Verlander should make for a very good game. Sale is obviously the better pitcher, but that’s ameliorated by their respective lineups. I’m leaning toward Verlander.

Steven Wright is always so hard to project on a given day. The results could range from dud to the top performance of the day. He’s opposite homer prone Drew Smyly.

A word of caution: Matt Moore may be coming off a near-no-no, but I’d stay far far away today. He’s opposed by the lefty-annihilating Diamondbacks.

Stack Targets: Stripling, Ross Detwiler, Martin Perez, Shelby Perez, Mike Fiers, Smyly

Late: Nine games are late. The second game of the Coors doubleheader is unavailable. The aceiest name on the ballot is Corey Kluber against a volatile Twins lineup. While the Twinkers occasionally go wild, they’re usually an easy opponent.

Aaron Sanchez will draw some picks in his return from a minor league siesta. I have no idea how many innings/pitches he’s cleared to throw. I’d anticipate a seven inning cap. Sanchez is opposed by the Orioles – the high octane version of the Twins unit.

Ian Kennedy is pitching unreasonably well, but I can’t bring myself to buy in. Kennedy’s success has mostly stemmed from a sudden decrease in home runs. It’s unlikely he’s suddenly learned contact management after a decade without it.

If you’re looking for value David Phelps is a bargain on FanDuel where his $6,700 price is at least $2,000 below his projected production. Phelps is up against a patchwork Mets offense. Don’t expect more than six innings.

Luis Cessa at Kansas City and Luke Weaver at Milwaukee are also viable bargains. Cessa should give you about six innings, three strikeouts, and a chance for a win. With Weaver, you’re praying for six innings and 10 strikeouts. There’s risk with the better upside. Weaver’s floor is ruinous while Cessa shouldn’t hurt you too badly.

Stack Targets: Pat Dean, Paul Clemens, Adam Morgan, Yovani Gallardo, Ricky Nolasco, Matt Garza, Brandon Finnegan, Ryan Vogelsong

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim says Kluber, Gio Gonzalez, Verlander, Fiers, and Phelps are the top pitchers of the day. I get the Gio pick – he’s tossing to the Phillies. I can’t possibly support homer prone Fiers versus a not-unpowerful Athletics lineup.

Stacks include Mike Trout, a Coors game, Astros, Cubs, Cardinals, Nationals, and Blue Jays.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

It’s a real Thin Thursday. I haven’t seen one of these in ages. Just four games total.

Pitchers to Start: With the exception of his most recent start against the Blue Jays, Ervin Santana has pitched well in the second half. The White Sox lineup comes out flat more often than not. Sweet Erv might have trouble earning a win opposite Jose Quintana, but a quality start with good ratios is well within his grasp.

Also consider: Mike Foltynewicz, Mike Montgomery

Pitchers to Exploit: The site is currently experiencing a case of fatal hiccups. Rather than waiting for the server to reboot, I’ll just point out that Jarred Cosart is terrible.

Also consider: Jose Urena, Jeff Samardzija

Hitters (power): I scraped together as many names as I could. If better players happen to be available in your league, use ’em. My favorite of the power bats is Ryan Schimpf. He’s facing a homer prone pitcher and a weak bullpen. Schimpf has extreme fly ball rates which translate to a big ISO and low average.

Also consider: Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Escobar, Melky Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, James Loney, Kelly Johnson, Nick Markakis, Alex Dickerson, Ryan Schimpf, Yangervis Solarte

Hitters (speed): We’ve talked about all of these players plenty of times throughout the season. It’s possible the White Sox will call up Adam Engel for September. He’s an obvious upgrade in an outfield corner to Avisail Garcia. Engel is a speedster with a too-high strikeout rate and a hint of power. I’ve been comparing my expectations for him to Jankowski.

Also consider: Jorge Polanco, Tim Anderson, Angel Pagan, Jose Reyes, Jace Peterson, Ender Inciarte, Travis Jankowski

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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