The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 29

Agenda

1. Getaway Days
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Getaway Days

Our topic yesterday was rain – specifically that I love rainy days for DFS. I’ve soured on them in the last 24 hours (not really). The Rockies game was cancelled despite being very playable. The best guess among my Twitter colleagues is that the club didn’t want to delay their travel plans by three hours. I had invested heavily in Rockies and Pirates (six of them). My other three players including Anibal Sanchez put up 80 points. The rest of my lineup could have easily contributed another 80 to 120 points.

The moral of the story: add another factor to your analysis of possible rain outs – getaway days. The most frustrating part – the Rockies had a short trip to Phoenix. They seemingly cancelled the game out of deference to the visiting Pirates – they’re back in Pittsburgh.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Yesterday’s FanDuel contest didn’t fill – I guess people don’t like Thin Thursdays. We only reached 16 participants so FanDuel ran it as a free contest. User rpimble won. I’ve decided to exclude free contests from the leaderboards.

Today’s TDG League is a 40-teamer on DraftKings. The column gets more exposure on Fridays so I think this will fill.

Correction: In yesterday’s The Daily Grind, we said nobody had yet to win two DraftKings contests. User Perge actually won his second contest on April 27. We apologize for the mistake.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

The Braves and Cubs have the only early game today. /ignore

“Aces” include Stephen Strasburg, Corey Kluber, and Felix Hernandez, aka guys who could be very good but probably don’t merit the investment.

You won’t find comfortable targets at a lower price, but there are still plenty of alternatives. First up is Aaron Sanchez opposite the aggressive Rays. If Sanchez has a primary weakness, it’s spotty command. The Rays regularly let their opponents get away with shaky command. When Sanchez faced the Rays earlier this season, he went seven innings without walking a batter. He always walks somebody. Pitcher friendly Tropicana Field is a positive here too.

A couple newbies – Michael Fulmer and Sean Manaea debut today. Fulmer’s matchup with the Twins is a good one, although I see him as a pitcher I’ll target more often than not. Manaea is the better hurler, but he’ll face a tougher opponent – the Astros. Remember new pitchers usually throw five or six innings tops.

High risk/reward choices abound like Steven Matz versus the Giants, Mike Fiers opposite Oakland, Alex Wood against the lowly Padres, and Drew Smyly’s rematch with Toronto.

Stack Targets: Carlos Rodon, Colby Lewis, Fiers, Wood, Juan Nicasio, Jake Peavy, Phil Hughes, Kris Medlen, Robbie Ray, Mike Leake, Mike Wright, Henry Owens, Zach Davies, Cesar Vargass, Adam Morgan, Dan Straily, Tyler Chatwood

4. SaberSim Observations

Jon Lester is the top pitcher today per SaberSim. Oh, he’s not available to us. Then try Strasburg, Ray (!?), Smyly, Wood, or Kluber. I passed over Hector Santiago’s tough matchup with the Rangers, but he’s an option too (10th ranked by SaberSim).

It’s not a big stacking day. The few Angels worth owning look tasty today – namely Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Kole Calhoun. Astros also figure prominently on SaberSim’s list despite facing a good young pitcher. Brewers could make for a sneak stack – specifically Ryan Braun, Chris Carter, and Domingo Santana.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: It’s a shockingly good day for streaming pitchers. Let’s talk about the guy you don’t know even though he isn’t the best pick available. Chris Devenski is a 25-year-old who has worked as a minor league swing-starter in recent season. He’s been used as the Astros’ long man with a 0.66 ERA, 7.90 K/9, and 0.66 BB/9 in 13.2 innings. He’s induced a 12.2 percent swinging strike rate.

Devenski uses a 93 mph fastball with a solid change, slider, and curve. I don’t have enough PITCHf/x data to make judgments on the quality of his repertoire. It’s deep enough to be valuable with the right command. Nobodies usually do nothing, but it’s not always the case. See Eickhoff below. It helps that Devenski is against the A’s tomorrow.

Also consider: Kendall Graveman, J.A. Happ, Kevin Gausman, Jerad Eickhoff, Rick Porcello, Wei-Yin Chen, Chase Anderson, Ross Stripling

Pitchers to Exploit: On the one hand, a terrible pitcher can’t post a 0.74 ERA over 24.1 innings. Something will go wrong at some point. But…his favorable .167 BABIP and 3.2 percent HR/FB ratio won’t hold up forever. When those regress, his complete inability to miss bats (4.81 K/9, 5.3% SwStr%) will burn him. Camden Yards is a rough park in which to turn pumpkin.

Also consider: Tyler Duffey, Julio Teheran, Matt Cain, Alfredo Simon, Shoemaker, Chris Rusin, Collin Rea, Wade Miley

Hitters (power): With Dee Gordon musclebound from the juice, Derek Dietrich is now an everyday starter versus right-handed pitching. He’s a career .246/.334/.448 hitter versus righties. He’s been even better since the start of 2015.

Also consider: Chase Utley, Brandon Drury, John Jaso, David Freese, Odubel Herrera, Ryan Howard, Brandon Guyer, Chris Coghlan

Hitters (speed): Jonathan Villar usually bats near the top of the Brewers lineup when facing a southpaw. Chen is a tough opponent. Villar could offer four or five category production.

Also consider: Carl Crawford, Cesar Hernandez, Joey Rickard

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.