The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 28

Agenda

  1. Rainy Days
  2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
  3. Daily DFS
  4. SaberSim Observations
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets
  6. Factor Grid

1. Rainy Days

I love rainy days for DFS. People make mistakes. They don’t tinker their lineup when a game is postponed early, or they use a starting pitcher who only gets three innings before a delay. The key to surviving days like these is to stay on top of the weather reports. I use multiple resources – Baseball Daily Data, weather.com, and Twitter. BDD tells me which games to monitor more closely. I’ll watch future weather maps to do my own amateur forecasting. Pay attention to what beat writers and @KevinRothwx have to say on Twitter. They usually have a good idea if a game is going to happen.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Sorry to anybody I confused with yesterday’s errant link. It looked like most people made it into the correct contest. I was originally going to do an early-only contest on FanDuel, but every single game in the time slot has rain. That’s no fun. Unfortunately, I won’t be around to set lineups for the late games. You should have no trouble beating a blind entry from me. Here’s the link (it’s correct!)

Congratulations are in order for Rotogut. By virtue of winning our largest contest yet, he’s the leader on the DraftKings board. We’ve still had nobody win twice on DK. Special thanks to Paul Sporer who helped me fill the contest AND finished second. Now where’s my cut?

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: As I mentioned, all four games will probably see some rain. The Cubs game is at greatest risk of postponement. Sorry to everybody who wanted to use Jake Arrieta today (or yesterday). Tanner Roark and Aaron Nola are fine alternatives. I’m willing to bet the other Five Guys are hugely unpopular.

I may take a flier on Bassitt personally. He’s using a five pitch arsenal this season. Like most pitchers with a sinker, it’s his worst pitch. The volume of terrible sinker ball pitchers in the league continues to shock me. He has a good curve and a crappy slider. A matchup versus the Tigers is a toughie.

Stack Targets: Anibal Sanchez, Juan Nicasio, Taylor Jungmann, Chris Bassitt, Tyler Chatwood

Late: The other four games are late. Jose Fernandez is the most expensive pitcher of the time slot, but you better believe everybody will be in on Kenta Maeda. Clay Buchholz has been bad this season, but he could rebound against the lowly Braves. Michael Wacha is also a fine choice.

Stack Targets: Tyler Wilson, Jhoulys Chacin, John Danks, Rubby de la Rosa.

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim is drooling over de la Rosa today. He’s the fourth ranked starter today. Color me confused. I think that’s a yellowish-green color with random blotches of brown-black. The rest of the pitcher picks are the guys you’d expect.

On the hitting side, it’s Coors, Red Sox, Cubs, and Orioles.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: You have three call-ups to choose from tomorrow. Manaea is the best of them with a borderline ace-level ceiling. I expect more of a mid-rotation type talent level. The Astros are a tough but strikeout prone first assignment.

I’m not a big believer in Fulmer based on his minor league numbers. The scouting reports are better than his performance. The opposite is true of Morgan. He’s pitched well despite possessing the physical talent of a swingman.

Also consider: Adam Morgan, Adam Conley, Michael Fulmer, Sean Manaea, Alex Wood

Pitchers to Exploit: Mike Fiers is a streaky pitcher. Through his first four starts, he’s catching way too much plate with his offerings. The result is a crazy 28.6 percent HR/FB ratio which is only compounded by his fly ball tendencies. Fiers will recover once he stops tossing cookies.

Also consider: Aaron Blair, Mike Wright, Henry Owens, Jake Peavy, Colby Lewis, Zach Davies, Mike Leake, Chris Rusin, Robbie Ray, Cesar Vargas

Hitters (power): To me, it’s pretty clear that Oswaldo Arcia isn’t back for good. A 42.6 percent strikeout ain’t gonna fly for a guy with merely “good” power. The punch out rate doesn’t even smell all that fluky because he swings through everything.

Against Fulmer, Arcia offers ceiling and floor. Fulmer makes mistakes and could be punished for them. He also has solid strikeout stuff, giving him an advantage against Arcia.

Also consider: Chase Utley, Chris Coghlan, Jed Lowrie, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Raburn, Brandon Drury, Martin Prado, Aaron Hicks, John Jaso, David Freese, Mike Napoli

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis will take on Phillies changeup specialist Morgan. The change has a nice reverse platoon split so Morgan could easily win this battle. Davis has been valuable to fantasy owners as the Indians leadoff man.

Also consider: Coco Crisp, Jimmy Rollins

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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NCKLM
7 years ago

Yeah, what happened yesterday? I submitted a DK lineup but it didn’t run somehow?