The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 19

Agenda

1. Introducing The Daily Grind Invitational
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Stripling, Fister, Gennett, Villar
5. Factor Grid

1. Introducing The Daily Grind Invitational

I’ve stolen an idea from my colleague Paul Sporer. We’re going to have a (mostly) daily, low-stakes reader league. Today’s league is a $2, 20-person contest on FanDuel using the 13-game evening slate. If you’d like to participate, simply sign up. If you’re new to FanDuel, feel free to use my referral link (I’ll get the tiniest bit of money from FanDuel if you do – 10 cents last month).

Both FanDuel and DraftKings allow users to create their own private leagues. The advantage of FanDuel is that I can make a league private with a referral link. DraftKings wants me to email blast my entire contact list. However, Sporer had success making 50 player public leagues without getting swarmed by sharks. In other words, it shouldn’t be an issue.

On FD, the limit for custom league size is 20 entrants – rather small in my opinion. If the league doesn’t fill, it runs as a free contest. On DK, I can create larger contests, but the league will not run at all if not filled. While I plan to mix and match between both sites, we’ll stick to FanDuel until we consistently have more than 20 players. If you miss the boat, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. I’d like an idea of demand.

Because I am sympathetic to the plight of those who live in DFS-banned states, I will also run free contests on a somewhat regular basis. Today is a test run to see if the $2 entry concept will work without diligent recruitment on my part. You may recruit however diligently you like.

2. Daily DFS – Liriano, Stroman, Wood

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Brewers and Twins play at 1:10 pm. Seattle and Cleveland square off at 6:10 pm. Let’s just ignore them.

Late: The remaining 13 games are part of the main contest. Stephen Strasburg costs the most, and he has a good matchup against the Marlins. I prefer cheaper options today.

If he wasn’t returning from injury, Francisco Liriano would be an easy pick against the Padres. Hamstring injuries tend to be very tricksy – I should know, I’m currently nursing a Grade 1 strain that won’t quite heal. I may still role the dice on Liriano since the matchup is so tasty. San Diego has the fifth highest strikeout rate – 25.8 percent.

Remember when Jaime Garcia and Vincent Velasquez dominated the scene last week. They’re back. Garcia has a difficult pairing with the Cubs while Velasquez should have an easier time with the Mets. He’s already posted a strong six inning outing versus New York.

At a slightly cheaper price, superior pitcher Marcus Stroman will be challenged by a star-studded Orioles offense. This one is attractive mainly because Stroman is opposed by not-starting-pitcher Mike Wright. The 12 point FanDuel win should be Stroman’s. I typically don’t worry about wins on DraftKings since they’re only four points.

But wait, there’s more, says the infomercial guy. Alex Wood will return to Atlanta to defeat a garbage Braves offense. The amount of sheer bad on that team is unspeakable. And if you need an even cheaper alternative, Adam Conley has a rematch against the Nationals. Round one only lasted one inning. Or should you try Logan Verrett in Philadelphia? So many choices.

Stack Targets: Eric Surkamp, Colin Rea, Matt Cain, Jorge de la Rosa, Wright, Robbie Ray, Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon, Scott Feldman, Julio Teheran, Matt Shoemaker

3. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim thinks Ervin Santana has a huge advantage over Wily Peralta. I’m not convinced. Sweet Erv is the fourth ranked pitcher, but I’d slide him down the list. The rest of the top five are Strasburg, Liriano, Velasquez, and Wood. Michael Pineda and Derek Holland are also on the bubble. I’m not comfortable with either of them, but I also don’t see them as pitchers to avoid.

The Blue Jays stack is both obvious and highly rated. I can tell SaberSim wants to hype Twins. Miguel Sano makes sense at sixth overall. Brian Dozier is near the bottom of the top 30. Eduardo Nunez is around the 20th best hitter? No way. Where’s Joe?

The Astros and White Sox also work for stacking action.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Stripling, Fister, Gennett, Villar

Pitchers to Start: I mostly have negative things to say about Ross Stripling. Words like “unimpressive” and “mediocre.” That all changes when he’s opposed by the Braves. Have I mentioned their terrible lineup? Yes, I believe I have. Stripling doesn’t have much by way of strikeout stuff, nor is his command particularly strong. However, he has more than enough at his disposal to earn a win against Williams Perez

Also consider: Chad Bettis, Kyle Hendricks, Ian Kennedy, Nate Eovaldi, Bartolo Colon, Jeff Locke

Pitchers to Exploit: The Astros did not have a good offseason, and it’s because they failed to address potential weaknesses in their rotation. The decision to sign Doug Fister looked bad at the time. He was obviously a better fit for a rebuilding club in need of veterany auras – like the Braves. Sure enough, Fister is barely touching 85 mph while throwing strikes. The result – he’s been TORCHED. Fister was a rebound candidate entering the season, but now it’s clear he isn’t a major league pitcher.

Also consider: R.A. Dickey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Rick Porcello, Perez, Tommy Milone

Hitters (power): I’m going to explain my inclusion of Scooter Gennett rather than some of the better picks for tomorrow. Conventional thinking says to avoid Gennett against any lefty. Indeed, the Brewers may avoid the matchup for you. However, it’s worth noting that Gennett may not be automatically bad against a mediocre lefty like Milone. Gennett sees a disproportionate amount of lefty specialists – i.e. the guys who are nearly impossible to hit. It follows that his numbers against lefties are bad. Let’s remember that Milone has very little in common with a Randy Choate or Jorge Lopez.

Also consider: Melvin Upton, David Freese, Joe Mauer, Chris Heisey, Chase Utley, Jed Lowrie, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Ben Paulsen

Hitters (speed): Jonathan Villar is this year’s Marcus Semien with none of the hype. Villar isn’t actually a disaster at shortstop, and he’ll eventually move down the spectrum to second or third base. He’s been patient this year, compiling a .257/.395/.400 line. When all is said and done, I expect he’ll have around 12 home runs, 15 steals, and decent run production. Not bad for a free player.

Also consider: Coco Crisp, Joey Rickard

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

A couple low risk rain games tonight. Keep an eye on them.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.