The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 18

Agenda

1. Are Stacks Too Popular?
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets –
5. Factor Grid

1. Are Stacks Too Popular?

In DFS, a stack is a group of hitters from the same lineup. There are gains to be had by using multiple players for the same lineup. If Anthony Rizzo drives in Ben Zobrist and you own them both, the run is double counted. It’s become common knowledge that the way to win is via a stack. Common knowledge tends to lag behind the actual best approaches.

This isn’t a question I can attack analytically because I don’t have useful data. However, I’ve been wondering if the whole stack approach to DFS, especially for large GPPs, is too popular to succeed. The stacks you want to use like the Blue Jays, Cubs, Coors games, and lineups against obvious exploit pitchers tend to be very heavily owned.

You’re left with a couple choices if you plan to stack. Everybody tends to clump their picks around the one through five hitters. Grabbing a few down-the-order guys could make your stack a little more unique. Alternatively, you can select unpopular stacks. Unfortunately, there’s usually a reason nobody loads up on Phillies hitters. Thus far, I’ve had more success with the former approach than the latter.

Going forward, I’m not going to stack at all for contests with 10 or fewer games. I’ll continue to stack for deeper contests. Instead of a true stack, I’ll do what I call “chaining” – picking two players from a lineup who could form a feedback loop.

GB/FB Update: The update is that there’s no update. As a peace offering, I will share the raw data here.

2. Daily DFS – Thor, Chase

Seven games are late today. The Blue Jays and Red Sox are playing some goofy morning game.

Noah Syndergaard is a must play against the Phillies. He costs a boatload and a 60 percent ownership rate would not surprise me. Pick him anyway. It’ll be too hard for other owners to out-offense you.

If you insist upon a cheap option, you’ll be using Chase Anderson. The righty is a solid command and control type. He could manage upwards of seven strikeouts in seven innings against the Twins offense while extending his scoreless streak. That’s a very sunny projection though, I expect something more like six innings, three runs, five strikeouts, and half a win (30 FD points). Minnesota might be rainy tonight.

Stack Targets: Phil Hughes, Tanner Roark, Mike Leake, Jake Peavy, Dan Straily, Jordan Lyles

3. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim says Thor and Jose Fernandez. Duh. Surprisingly, Straily somehow ranks third. Don’t. Peavy fourth, Hughes sixth, Jerad Eickhoff seventh? No grazi.

Ignoring the Boston game, the top stacks per SaberSim are located in Chicago. Try loading up on Angels or White Sox. Or both.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Verrett, Cain, Mauer, Brito

Pitchers to Start: I didn’t think Logan Verrett would last more than four innings against the Marlins, but he dealt for six frames. Now that we know he can actually earn a win, he becomes a solid streaming option versus the Phillies. The soft-tossing righty is a kitchen sink kind of guy. He throws an average performing fastball and sinker. His best pitches are a changeup and slider. He’ll also flip the occasional curve.

Also consider: Wade Miley, Ervin Santana, Adam Conley

Pitchers to Exploit: In a general sense, Matt Cain looks a lot better this year. He’s showed improved command in the innings I’ve watched. That shows in his 8.44 K/9 and 1.69 BB/9. Unfortunately, he’s barely touching 90 mph, and he’s officially a fly ball pitcher. AT&T Park should help Cain to keep the ball in the yard. I’m still a big fan of the Diamondbacks lineup tomorrow.

Also consider: Wily Peralta, Mike Wright, Eric Surkamp, Joe Kelly, Jorge de la Rosa, Alfredo Simon, Matt Shoemaker, Mat Latos, Colin Rea

Hitters (power): Sweet Joe Mauer is looking mighty fine in the early going. Batting third for a mostly terrible Twins lineup could prove beneficial once the rest of the team starts hitting. Mauer claims to have corrected his vision and improved himself physically. He isn’t swinging through anything, and he’s even shown a hint of power. His home park is poorly designed for him, but he may still be worth owning outright.

Also consider: Jake Lamb, John Jaso, C.J. Cron, Melky Cabrera, Zack Cozart, Brandon Phillips, Devin Mesoraco, Adam Duvall, Ben Paulsen, Aaron Hicks, Mike Napoli, Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario

Hitters (speed): If Socrates Brito was a Rule 5 pick on a terrible, I’d say he has a decent chance of posting a similar season to Odubel Herrera’s 2015. Since the Diamondbacks are contenders, I don’t expect the club to stick with Brito long enough for him to settle in. He’s looked overmatched at times. I’ve seen enough to think he’ll improve over time. He tends to bat second against righties like Cain.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Rafael Ortega, Jimmy Rollins, Rajai Davis

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Watch out for rain in Minnesota.

The Link.

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