The Daily Grind: deGrom, Happ, Miley, Holland

Agenda

1. Daily DFS – deGrom, Happ
2. GB / FB Splits
3. SaberSim Hi/Lo
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Miley, Holland, Olivera, Rusney
5. Factor Grid

1. Daily DFS – deGrom, Happ

Early: Once again, it’s the Cubs (with the Indians) all by their lonesome at 2:05 ET. Wave hi to Corey Kluber and Jon Lester.

Late: It’s too bad because Jacob deGrom is the only other ace available today. For owners who prefer to make “safe” pitching picks and gamble on bargain hitters, you’ll all be clumped together owning deGrom. It’s a great day to use him too – he’s visiting Philadelphia.

Hisashi Iwakuma and Lance Lynn are reasonable fall back options. They’re still expensive, but they both have decent matchups. Iwakuma pitches against the A’s at Safeco Field. Lynn has the Diamondbacks in Arizona.

Alternatively, J.A. Happ is once again near the top of the SaberSim list. And this time, I’ll bite. He’s visiting a Marlins club that was just swept by the Phillies. His opponent, Tom Koehler, is comparably skilled, but the Pirates have the superior offensive presence. Happ lives and dies by BABIP. He gets just enough strikeouts so as not to be an utter drain. He’s a high floor, low ceiling pick. Even on a great day, don’t count on more than six innings and four strikeouts. You’re looking at a range of six to 14 points.

Stack Targets: Scott Feldman, Nathan Eovaldi, Adam Morgan, Jorge de la Rosa, Buck Farmer, Keyvius Sampson, Joe Kelly, Felix Doubront

2. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

It’s a short list today.

Josh Reddick and Marcus Semien v Hisashi Iwakuma
Jonny Gomes v Jorge de la Rosa
Ruben Tejada and Michael Cuddyer v Adam Morgan

3. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: While I don’t necessarily disagree with the overall projection, SaberSim thinks Kris Medlen will pitch 6.46 innings in his first start of the season. Even lasting that deep into the game, he’s projected for fewer than nine FanDuel points. I expect him to be a popular punt, but I wouldn’t use him myself. SaberSim is down on him, and it’s not even accounting for the likelihood that he lasts only five innings. Throwing over six innings is an absolute ceiling, not a median expectation.

Right: Before you open up the SaberSim hitter list, take a guess at the top name. Hint: it’s a slugger at an extreme home run park.

Jeff Samardzija is kind of scrubby this year. He’s the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, yet SaberSim lists him as the third worst pitcher today. The hitter in question is opposite Samardzija – David Ortiz. He’s projected for 4.51 FanDuel points. Only Miguel Cabrera (vs. Sampson) is also expected to eclipse four points (obviously, many players actually will). Ortiz is displaying all his usual power antics. He’s now a low-BABIP hitter, but you’re picking him for his shot at two home runs at U.S. Cellular Field. He costs $1,000 less than Miggy.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Miley, Holland, Olivera, Rusney

Pitchers to Start: The battle of the Sox continues tomorrow with Wade Miley opposed by Jose Quintana. Miley has been a frequent guest of the less illustrious portion of this section (i.e. the exploits). Miley has shown flashes of acceptable performance throughout his career. Even at his best, he’s prone to the occasional meltdown.

We can see that in his last seven outings. He’s averaged over 6.1 innings with a 3.55 ERA, 7.69 K/9, and 2.96 BB/9. However, 12 of the 18 runs he’s allowed over the seven game period have come in two outings. If you catch one of the good days, he’s a decent bet for a win.

Also consider: Josh Tomlin, Jesse Chavez

Pitchers to Exploit: Derek Holland had a successful return from the disabled list last week. Most days, he’ll be a good pick as a starter. Tomorrow, he’s opposed by the lefty-mashing Blue Jays. I’m hesitant to use top right-handed pitchers against Toronto. Holland has the stuff to survive the outing, but it could get a little ugly.

Also consider: Jerome Williams, Alfredo Simon, Jered Weaver, Chad Bettis, Mike Foltynewicz, John Lamb, Brad Hand, Miguel Gonzalez, Matt Cain

Hitters (power): Hector Olivera is not yet searchable in the Yahoo player universe. Rumors are split as to when he’ll make his big league debut. He was originally slated to join the lineup today, but now he may be delayed until later in the week. The scouting reports suggest he’ll control the strike zone with some sneaky pop.

Also consider: Chris Coghlan, Seth Smith, Mark Canha, Stephen Piscotty, Nolan Reimold, Chris Colabello, Eddie Rosario, Scott Van Slyke, Kelly Johnson, Michael Conforto

Hitters (speed): Rusney Castillo has remained scalding hot. Since his recall in late July, he’s hitting .355/.395/.553 with a .421 BABIP. Paraphrasing House Stark, regression is coming. However this is roughly what Boston and fantasy owners expected entering a season – a .270 true talent hitter with pesky power.

Also consider: Tyler Saladino, Delino DeShields

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

We’re all good on the weather front.

The Link.

This post is a part of this balanced breakfast.