The Daily Grind: Beware The PPG

Reader beware, you’re in for a scare.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Poops Per Game

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

I, uh, forgot to reserve my entries in yesterday’s Invitational. I have two questions. Did anybody notice around what time the contest filled? Can somebody supply the names of the top five participants for the leaderboard?

My entries for tonight’s contest are locked and loaded. It’s a five-game evening slate in the form of a $2 GPP, 52-entries, 2 max per person.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

This being early April, the weather is a tad chilly. There is no rain in the forecast. Yankees Stadium has 20 mph swirling winds.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

The action is split today with five games in the early afternoon, five in the evening, and four lost to the mid-afternoon.

Early: Corey Kluber ($21,500) leads the way with a very affordable price tag versus Carlos Rodon ($14,100) and the White Sox. I see no reason to shy away from either offense. Rodon may have trouble earning the win bonus. I don’t believe he’s turning a corner. He’s still the same occasionally useful guy from last year.

Aaron Nola ($19,700) looks like a must-play. The Phillies offense is putting up video game numbers. Although I’m fanboy #1 of the new Anibal Sanchez, I’m avoiding him in starts against Philadelphia. Then again, FantasyDraft is trying to tempt me back with a $11,800 price.

The Rockies and Rays are sending a couple good pitchers to the bump. German Marquez ($19,600) is the latest winner of an extension. After a sizzling debut, it looks like he has carried over his second half success. Charlie Morton ($17,200) has the longer track record of performing at this level. He’s probably the smarter play today.

Kyle Gibson ($12,900) looks like a must-use bargain versus the lowly Royals. Copious run support should be available with an assist from Homer Bailey.

Favorite Plays: Kluber, Nola, Gibson

Stack Targets: Bailey

Evening: Gerrit Cole ($22,300) is the boss tonight. His opponent, Mike Minor ($9,000) scuffled through his 2019 debut. Rebounding against the Astros is easier said than done. Cole was in top form last week, notching 10 strikeouts in six innings with nary a walk.

The tasty Giants matchup goes to Ross Stripling ($19,300). As I hammered throughout the offseason, Stripling was always going to get his share of the Dodgers starts. Here he is making his second appearance after a fantastic debut. One thing to keep an eye upon is his velocity. He was down two mph from last year.

Miles Mikolas ($14,900) is visiting Jameson Taillon ($15,300) in an interesting mid-tier pairing. Both pitchers are very affordable and will probably supply over a point per $1,000. They also both made some mistakes last week. It’s important to not overreact to small sample happenings. This is a particular danger in DFS. I’ll explain in Section 5. Anyway, the game is at pitcher friendly PNC Park. Taillon obviously has the more difficult side of the battle, but he’s also the better pitcher. A little home field advantage doesn’t hurt.

Jon Lester ($14,900) had a gutsy outing against the Rangers, but I’m not on board for the encore in Atlanta. The Braves possess a tricky offense to navigate. Lester also didn’t show any signs that he’s conquered his demons. He hasn’t been a truly good pitcher since 2017. These days, he has more in common with CC Sabathia than an ace. His velocity was down 1.5 mph. I prefer the Julio Teheran ($13,600) side of the equation. He’s jumped on the slider barrage bandwagon, mixing in an occasional backup two-seamer to keep hitters honest.

Nathan Eovaldi ($18,000) is kind of expensive. He’ll face a deep Athletics lineup. Expect plenty of run support.

Favorite Plays: Cole, Stripling, Mikolas, Teheran

Stack Targets: Minor, Marco Estrada, Derek Holland

None of these stack targets are especially bad pitchers. This might be a good slate to mix up your strategies.

4. SaberSim Says…

I’m only looking at the evening slate since that’s where most DFSers will play. Stripling Cole, Taillon, Eovaldi, and Mikolas are the top-rated pitchers tonight. The Sim prefers Holland, Taillon, Minor, Estrada, and Mikolas for bargain hunters. Smells right to me.

Premium bats belong to Ronald Acuna, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, and George Springer. If you prefer value, Ozzie Albies, Matt Chapman, Robbie Grossman, Steven Duggar, and Shin-Soo Choo are the players to target.

5. Points Per Game

As promised, let’s quickly talk about how DFS sites (unintentionally?) lead their users astray. They prominently display a points-per-game column which has a pernicious psychological effect on our choices. When we see Mikolas and Lester at the same price but Lester has five times more points per game, a dark corner of our mind starts whispering madnesses. Usually, the difference is smaller yet no less misleading.

One trick is to simply use a tool like SaberSim or some homebrewed calculations to inform your choices. Projection systems err in the opposite direction. They’re more likely to include irrelevant versions of a player in their expectations.