The Daily Grind: Anibal, Chi Chi, Ruf
Agenda
- Negotiations and Keeper Valuations
- Daily DFS – Anibal
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Elias, Chi Chi, Franco, Ruf, Guyer
- Factor Grid
1. Negotiations and Keeper Valuations
In the comments of yesterday’s article, we discussed my desire to swap a $43 Giancarlo Stanton for a $8 Kris Bryant in my home league. Such discussion provides interesting feedback when considering a difficult keeper trade. One reader felt a one-for-one swap was reasonable, although my rival and I have agreed that I need to give up more than Stanton. Personally, I do think it’s a good starting point and not too far off the mark.
You may have noticed that several of my leaguemates spoke up, including the owner of Bryant. They believed my rival would be better suited making small moves. Per their analysis, Stanton wasn’t a fit for my rival’s roster. Of course, said rival is starting Torii Hunter and Chris Coghlan in his outfield with Josh Donaldson filling a utility spot. In other words, it looks like a pure upgrade to me.
The main barrier to trade is how we calculate keeper value. In our league, prices inflate by $7 per season. As a rule of thumb, I apply a heavy discount to future value, and I almost never project beyond the next season. With injuries and talent levels in constant flux, it’s not uncommon for a surefire keeper to suddenly fall to the scrap heap.
However, it might be time to admit that Bryant is a special case. He can be kept for $8 in 2016 and $15 in 2017. I think it’s fair to include his expected production in those two seasons (with a sizable discount factor).
Alas, we do seem to be at an impasse. I included an $8 Jorge Soler this morning to help balance my rival’s long range planning (granted, I also asked for $15 Carlos Carrasco and $8 Carlos Correa). He rejected the idea and re-offered $11 Yu Darvish and $1-8 Kyle Schwarber. I consider those players to be worth a marginal non-keeper like Ryan Zimmerman (Darvish) or Khris Davis (Schwarber). If I owned them, I would treat them as throw-ins.
In a sense, I’m playing the role of the Philadelphia Phillies. I have an excellent asset, and I need a blue chip return. Maybe it’s too ambitious to ask for Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart for Cole Hamels. It certainly would be easier to take Deven Marrero and Manuel Margot. But I don’t actually have to trade Stanton. If I thought it was a viable swap, I could find the equivalent of a Darvish/Schwarber bag of balls in August. Or next season. In the mean time, why would I settle for anything less than an excellent return?
2. Daily DFS – Anibal
Early: Forget about the Cubs and Royals today. They’re hanging out with the cheese. Alone. But actually they’re not alone since they’re hanging out together. I’m confused. Why is there cheese here?
Late: Matt Harvey and Cole Hamels pitch in the late contest. Harvey is up against a mediocre Marlins offense while Hamels will neutralize a couple left-handed Rockies. Both pitchers figure to post strong numbers this evening, but they’re expensive. Sonny Gray also looks to have a good matchup against Chris Capuano and the Yankees.
If you go with the alternatives, you’ll have a high bar to clear. I happen to like Anibal Sanchez against the Angels. The game is at pitcher friendly Haloland. Hopefully he doesn’t cough up a score of home runs. His ground ball rate has declined by 10 percent while his HR/FB ratio is at a career high. Otherwise, his numbers are strong. The Tigers offense should provide run support against Hector Santiago. It’s definitely a high risk, high reward play.
Stack Targets: Stephen Strasburg, Anthony DeSclafani, Mark Buehrle, Trevor May, Santiago, Capuano, Taijuan Walker
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Elias, Chi Chi, Franco, Ruf, Guyer
Pitchers to Start: I gave a partial recommendation to James Paxton yesterday against the Indians. The Cleveland offense has performed well against southpaws this year even though the same lineup was feeble last season. Well, they touched up Paxton for three runs in 4.2 innings.
I’m still sold by the larger sample. As such, I’m hopeful that Roenis Elias will survive a start against Trevor Bauer. Elias offers an unexciting fantasy profile with about 7.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and a high 3’s ERA. Hopefully he’ll be on his best behavior.
Also consider: Wei-Yin Chen, Raisel Iglesias, Nathan Eovaldi, Jesse Hahn, Shane Greene
Pitchers to Exploit: The Rangers will summon Alex Gonzalez from the minors. Chi Chi Gonzalez (not to be confused with Chi Chi Rodriguez), has been less than impressive in Triple-A. In eight starts, he has a 4.15 ERA, 5.40 K/9, and 3.95 BB/9. He’s a well-regarded prospect, but his stats don’t scream major league ready.
Also consider: Aaron Sanchez, Jorge de la Rosa, Erasmo Ramirez, Jeremy Hellickson, Kyle Lohse, Wade Miley, Williams Perez
Hitters (power): Streaming assets can often be found on bad teams with good matchups. Such is the case with the Phillies against de la Rosa. Maikel Franco and Darin Ruf will have the platoon advantage. We don’t know if Franco has platoon splits – he’s struggled against lefties in a tiny sample. We do know that Ruf mashes southpaws – .272/.363/.514 in 205 plate appearances.
Also consider: Mike Aviles, Ryan Raburn, Gerardo Parra, David Peralta, Travis Snider
Hitters (speed): Brandon Guyer has earned frequent playing time this season, mostly due to the absence of Desmond Jennings. Guyer has shown decent power against southpaws throughout his short career – .271/.329/.414 in 227 plate appearances. He’s opposed by Chen.
Also consider: Cory Spangenberg, Nori Aoki, Angel Pagan, Billy Burns, Juan Lagares, Jake Marisnick, Ender Inciarte
4. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Lots of rain in the forecast. Check the weather reports closer to game time.
This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.
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I don’t usually use this strategy, but do you have any thoughts on rolling out Liriano and Shields against each other tonight on 2 SP sites? It looks like it could be a K fest out there and fairly low scoring (if Shields can avoid the HR plague effecting all Pads pitchers)
Not on a day with 14 games. I’d like the idea more if it was say a 5 game contest.
Hey, loved reading about the Stanton-Bryant proposals as I went through that two years ago, didn’t have to deal away but at the same time, I wanted to so badly cause I was stuck with aging yet productive pieces who weren’t helping me climb the ranks (I was in the middle of the pack, 6/7 in a 12 teamer). Yet I also had young kids who were performing well enough to build around for the next year or two, I ended up rehauling that same team a tad bit here in the past week bringing in Dickerson and Fernandez to join my already injury filled bench of Puig, Wright, Alonso, etc.
Now I am faced with a new problem however, as I feel with the health improving of my team I can make a second half surge and compete for the title. I have David Wright, not doing me any good on the DL and I honestly am already tired of having this headache. It’d be cents on the dollar, obviously, but in a 12 teamer deep rosters to the point the only guys on waivers are Denorfia, RP’s without high K’s and prospects who won’t make it to the majors this year, whom should I target in a trade? I want it to be keeper eligible incase I run into injuries, TJ’s or just freak incidents and need another for next year.
Would you say going after a Ryu type might work? Another DL-er but comes back next year and can be a good not great piece to my squad?
Thanks in advance.
This year’s version of Anibal Sanchez is like my 2nd wife; a thing of beauty, or “avert your eyes” cringe-worthy. He’s either working on a no-hitter, or slashing your tires, throwing your clothes out the window, and making you spend the night at a hotel, so to speak.
Kinda like Anna Benson.
Solid animal themes in the title.
Interesting you compare yourself to the Phillies, who should have been in rebuild a couple years ago but stubbornly hung onto overpriced stars because they held out hope that someone held the same value (no one did). You may find yourself in 12th place again next year with a high-priced Stanton, but doggone it at least you didn’t sway from your valuations!
If it’s me, I’d want 2-3 young prospects. Correa would be a great start. In fact, if I was looking like I was in rebuild and you asked if I’d rather have Stanton for 2 more years at $47 and $54, or Correa at $8 and $15…it’s not THAT far off. Throw in Carrasco and Schwarber (One proven MLB arm, one top prespect in the game, one prospect flyer) and that might be enough.
If I didn’t keep $43 Stanton, I’d just spend the money on a slightly lesser player at the same price.
I thought the Bryant-Stanton swap is fair.
get that $8 Donaldson instead?
Going back to the site’s rake, I think many of FanDuel’s tournaments have roughly a 13% rake. Is that what you guys are seeing? Seems pretty high.
The Yu and Schwarber offer may be the most insulting offer I’ve seen. Yikes. Wouldn’t negotiate after that.
The Stanton/Bryant talks, it may make more sense in your particular league parameters, but in most large keeper leagues, say an 18 tm mixed with good size bench, and a farm, to trade away a keeper priced Bryant would take an absolute kings ransom, as in multiple studs from a rebuilder.
Your unique perspective of greatly discounting future value, ensures that the primo blue chip guys wont end up on your team. If you are a rebuilder, and choose to hold onto a high priced Stanton, who is worth nothing to you, you said yourself you would not keep him, then you are not doing something right to maximize your future.
Oh, I said I’d definitely keep him at $43. He’s a viable keeper up until about $65 once you factor in inflation (which tends to show itself in weird ways). So not trading him simply means I won’t be drafting a high priced rebound candidate like McCutchen next season.