The Daily Grind: Anibal, Chi Chi, Ruf

Agenda

1. Negotiations and Keeper Valuations
2. Daily DFS – Anibal
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Elias, Chi Chi, Franco, Ruf, Guyer
4. Factor Grid

1. Negotiations and Keeper Valuations

In the comments of yesterday’s article, we discussed my desire to swap a $43 Giancarlo Stanton for a $8 Kris Bryant in my home league. Such discussion provides interesting feedback when considering a difficult keeper trade. One reader felt a one-for-one swap was reasonable, although my rival and I have agreed that I need to give up more than Stanton. Personally, I do think it’s a good starting point and not too far off the mark.

You may have noticed that several of my leaguemates spoke up, including the owner of Bryant. They believed my rival would be better suited making small moves. Per their analysis, Stanton wasn’t a fit for my rival’s roster. Of course, said rival is starting Torii Hunter and Chris Coghlan in his outfield with Josh Donaldson filling a utility spot. In other words, it looks like a pure upgrade to me.

The main barrier to trade is how we calculate keeper value. In our league, prices inflate by $7 per season. As a rule of thumb, I apply a heavy discount to future value, and I almost never project beyond the next season. With injuries and talent levels in constant flux, it’s not uncommon for a surefire keeper to suddenly fall to the scrap heap.

However, it might be time to admit that Bryant is a special case. He can be kept for $8 in 2016 and $15 in 2017. I think it’s fair to include his expected production in those two seasons (with a sizable discount factor).

Alas, we do seem to be at an impasse. I included an $8 Jorge Soler this morning to help balance my rival’s long range planning (granted, I also asked for $15 Carlos Carrasco and $8 Carlos Correa). He rejected the idea and re-offered $11 Yu Darvish and $1-8 Kyle Schwarber. I consider those players to be worth a marginal non-keeper like Ryan Zimmerman (Darvish) or Khris Davis (Schwarber). If I owned them, I would treat them as throw-ins.

In a sense, I’m playing the role of the Philadelphia Phillies. I have an excellent asset, and I need a blue chip return. Maybe it’s too ambitious to ask for Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart for Cole Hamels. It certainly would be easier to take Deven Marrero and Manuel Margot. But I don’t actually have to trade Stanton. If I thought it was a viable swap, I could find the equivalent of a Darvish/Schwarber bag of balls in August. Or next season. In the mean time, why would I settle for anything less than an excellent return?

2. Daily DFS – Anibal

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Forget about the Cubs and Royals today. They’re hanging out with the cheese. Alone. But actually they’re not alone since they’re hanging out together. I’m confused. Why is there cheese here?

Late: Matt Harvey and Cole Hamels pitch in the late contest. Harvey is up against a mediocre Marlins offense while Hamels will neutralize a couple left-handed Rockies. Both pitchers figure to post strong numbers this evening, but they’re expensive. Sonny Gray also looks to have a good matchup against Chris Capuano and the Yankees.

If you go with the alternatives, you’ll have a high bar to clear. I happen to like Anibal Sanchez against the Angels. The game is at pitcher friendly Haloland. Hopefully he doesn’t cough up a score of home runs. His ground ball rate has declined by 10 percent while his HR/FB ratio is at a career high. Otherwise, his numbers are strong. The Tigers offense should provide run support against Hector Santiago. It’s definitely a high risk, high reward play.

Stack Targets: Stephen Strasburg, Anthony DeSclafani, Mark Buehrle, Trevor May, Santiago, Capuano, Taijuan Walker

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Elias, Chi Chi, Franco, Ruf, Guyer

Pitchers to Start: I gave a partial recommendation to James Paxton yesterday against the Indians. The Cleveland offense has performed well against southpaws this year even though the same lineup was feeble last season. Well, they touched up Paxton for three runs in 4.2 innings.

I’m still sold by the larger sample. As such, I’m hopeful that Roenis Elias will survive a start against Trevor Bauer. Elias offers an unexciting fantasy profile with about 7.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and a high 3’s ERA. Hopefully he’ll be on his best behavior.

Also consider: Wei-Yin Chen, Raisel Iglesias, Nathan Eovaldi, Jesse Hahn, Shane Greene

Pitchers to Exploit: The Rangers will summon Alex Gonzalez from the minors. Chi Chi Gonzalez (not to be confused with Chi Chi Rodriguez), has been less than impressive in Triple-A. In eight starts, he has a 4.15 ERA, 5.40 K/9, and 3.95 BB/9. He’s a well-regarded prospect, but his stats don’t scream major league ready.

Also consider: Aaron Sanchez, Jorge de la Rosa, Erasmo Ramirez, Jeremy Hellickson, Kyle Lohse, Wade Miley, Williams Perez

Hitters (power): Streaming assets can often be found on bad teams with good matchups. Such is the case with the Phillies against de la Rosa. Maikel Franco and Darin Ruf will have the platoon advantage. We don’t know if Franco has platoon splits – he’s struggled against lefties in a tiny sample. We do know that Ruf mashes southpaws – .272/.363/.514 in 205 plate appearances.

Also consider: Mike Aviles, Ryan Raburn, Gerardo Parra, David Peralta, Travis Snider

Hitters (speed): Brandon Guyer has earned frequent playing time this season, mostly due to the absence of Desmond Jennings. Guyer has shown decent power against southpaws throughout his short career – .271/.329/.414 in 227 plate appearances. He’s opposed by Chen.

Also consider: Cory Spangenberg, Nori Aoki, Angel Pagan, Billy Burns, Juan Lagares, Jake Marisnick, Ender Inciarte

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Lots of rain in the forecast. Check the weather reports closer to game time.

The Link.

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