The Daily Grind: Analyzing a Winner

Welcome back to The Daily Grind, an all-you-can-eat DFS buffet. Today’s listed prices are for FanDuel.

AGENDA

1. Analyzing a Winner
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Fade Fade Fade
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Analyzing a Winner

This, apparently, is a $5,000 roster.

In many ways, we could have seen this coming. He went with the two best pitchers, a strangely unpopular Giants stack, and a couple lucky patches. Note the ownership rates on Brandon Crawford and Gorkys Hernandez. When you expect an offense to go off, everybody will have a share of the big names. You want to catch the fluky night from an otherwise scrubby player – at least if you’re trying to score big in a GPP. By using players like Gorkys, you will lose more often. Your wins may be bigger too.

2. Weather Reports

Two of the three early games — Cubs-Cardinals and Tigers-White Sox — will be befouled by storms. Both games are postponement risks. In the 12 game main slate, only the Philadelphia-Cincinnati contest is at risk of postponement. Washington D.C. may see some late rain.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Let’s ignore the early slate since it’s essentially one game. The top trio of pitchers – Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, and Rich Hill should draw plenty of attention. Sale is the true ace of the day and has the price to match. He’s hosting the Pirates. You may be better off paying nearly $2,000 less for deGrom and Hill, both of whom project to perform similarly to Sale.

There are plenty of options to work with beyond the upper crust. Tanner Roark and Garrett Richards aren’t good values, but they’re fine pitchers. Richards will be interesting to follow. Matt Moore isn’t an ideal play at Chase Field, nor is Taijuan Walker. However, they represent what should be unpopular picks with some upside.

Everybody’s favorite sleeper, James Paxton, will take plenty of heat with a $7,700 price tag. He’s popular due to the peripheral breakouts he made last season. Maintaining those and converting them into better on field success is his task for 2017. He’s opposed by another sleeper, $6,400 Charlie Morton. Keep an eye on his velocity and the quality of his curve.

Others of interest include Jharel Cotton, Dylan Bundy, Dan Straily, Bartolo Colon, Cole Hamels, Danny Salazar, and J.A. Happ. It’s a busy day chock full of unimpressive mid-tier options.

Stack Targets: Michael Pineda, Alex Cobb, Tyler Chatwood, Wily Peralta, Trevor Cahill

4. Fade Fade Fade

Stars: Edwin Encarnacion is expensive – $600 more than teammate Carlos Santana. The Indians stack should be unpopular versus Cole Hamels, and I’d bet on most Santana drawing most of the attention. Hamels gives up his share of home runs. Encarnacion could run into one.

Having watched all of five Carlos Correa swings, I’m fairly convinced he’s in top 2015 form. The Astros star shortstop costs $4,000 opposite Paxton. Between rosters with Paxton and cheaper, similarly talented shortstops, Correa could be unpopular. If I’m right about his performance level, he’s still a bargain.

Tanner Roark is the type of pitcher whom Giancarlo Stanton should mash. He fills the lower quadrant of the strike zone – Stanton’s nitro zone. Multiple home runs could follow. Trendier expensive outfielders like Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Bryce Harper should leave Stanton unattended.

Bargains: If the Reds-Phillies game happens, there’s a good chance Tommy Joseph will be overlooked. For $2,000 on FanDuel, he’s a must-play versus a mediocre southpaw at a homer happy stadium. There’s multi-homer upside on the table.

Owners will be all over Paul Goldschmidt versus a lefty. Chris Owings ($2,400) might find his usage boosted by Goldy. Owings’ aggressive approach is a great match for Chase Field.

Andrew Toles will probably reprise his leadoff role opposite Trevor Cahill. After trouncing the Padres on Opening Day, the Dodgers were skunked yesterday. They’ll be out for blood.

5. SaberSim Says…

Hill, Pineda, deGrom, Sale, and Salazar rate as the top five pitchers per SaberSim. Betting against Pineda (or at least never using him) has been quite profitable for me. At $8,200, it’s not as if there’s much room for profit. Take a safer, slightly more expensive arm, or reach deeper for a higher floor with a similar ceiling.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

KingTrout won the lowest scoring contest I’ve ever seen. Jake Arrieta, Lance McCullers, and Carlos Santana produced over three-quarters of his 106.6 points. A pitiful performance from all involved (kidding). There were no repeat winners in the first two days – here’s the leaderboard.

Let’s slide over to FanDuel for today’s contest. It’s the same 20-team, $2 format. Top six teams are paid on FanDuel.