The Daily Grind: A Sumptuous Sunday

Welcome to the struggle and grind. It’s weekend TDG!

AGENDA

1. Weather Reports
2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
3. Players to Avoid
4. SaberSim Says…

1. Weather Reports

Cleveland, Detroit, and St. Louis all have between 30 and 50 percent chances for rain throughout the afternoon. The Indians are playing the Mariners so they’re more likely to wait out the rain. The Tigers and Cardinals have in-division matchups. They might be quicker to postpone since they’ll be easier to reschedule.

2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

For whatever reason, FanDuel decided the Angels-Rangers game doesn’t fit in either time slot. Doesn’t make any sense since it only starts two hours after the beginning of the contest. That leaves 10 games in the main and four late. The evening crew includes three 4:10pm games and one 8:08pm start. But the Angels-Rangers don’t fit.

Main Slate: Noah Syndergaard maybe won’t get bumped this time. The Mets wanted to perform an MRI on his biceps strain, but he told them to piss off. I wonder what the Mets players think about their training staff. From an outsider’s perspective, no team has been more reactive and lost looking than the Mets when it comes to injury management.

Is Dallas Keuchel back? I very much doubt we’ll ever see the 2015 version again, but it’s looking increasingly possible that he’s recaptured his 2014 form. Keuchel posted a 2.93 ERA and 3.21 FIP that season. He makes up for his 6.57 K/9 by pitching deep into his starts. Look at him as a high floor, mid-ceiling cash game stud.

Chris Archer is the anti-Keuchel. He should be considered massively volatile. His command tends to come and go, but he has the stuff necessary to pile up 15 strikeouts on a lucky night. The Blue Jays lineup is a disaster zone these days. Even their supposedly good hitters aren’t hitting.

After the top trio, there’s a who lot of gross. Then, near the bottom, you’ll find Jordan Montgomery for another high volatility play. Unlike Archer, Monty costs just $6,600. I’m very enthused about this young lefty’s future. I think he can be Rich Hill with a full repertoire. There will be bumps in the road along the way. There’s a reason he’s currently suffering from a .378 BABIP – it’s called a “sinker.” He just needs to realize his future is high fastballs and low breaking balls.

Stack Targets: Chase De Jong, Phil Hughes, Matt Garza, Chad Kuhl, Tom Koehler, Josh Tomlin, Mike Foltynewicz, Bronson Arroyo, Jason Hammel, Jesse Hahn, Jordan Zimmermann

Late Slate: Maybe just skip this slate? The best starters are Kyle Hendricks and Eduardo Rodriguez. They face each other which is doubly problematic because it also means they play the Red Sox and Cubs offenses at Fenway.

Nick Pivetta is making his debut against the Dodgers. Too bad he isn’t left-handed. He’ll probably help fuel the L.A. offense enough to hand Hyun-Jin Ryu the victory. Ryu has yet to produce a DFS relevant start, but all the elements are there for a 40 point night. Honestly, that’s all you’re shooting for in this slate.

Stack Targets: German Marquez, Ty Blach, Pivetta, Clayton Richard, Pat Corbin

3. Players to Avoid

Aaron Sanchez will be limited in his return from the disabled list. There’s almost no chance he’ll earn his $9,100 salary.

Mike Foltynewicz is the seventh ranked pitcher today, but that includes his 2016 performance. The 2017 version is down about one mph on the fastball, and his command is a 40 on the 20-80 scale. It was a 50 last year.

Joe Ross will tempt many with his $6,200 price tag. I’m not convinced he’s a good bet to toss more than five innings. Nor have I been encouraged by his two starts. His fastball velocity is down two mph. The slider is slightly less slidey.

Be wary of Trea Turner today. Even though he’s facing Syndergaard, he should remain incredibly popular. Because, you know, stolen bases. Turner has to reach base to steal. Guys like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, and Trevor Story are cheapers (much in the case of Story).

I generally try to steer clear of guys like Billy Hamilton or Jose Peraza when they’re facing Yadier Molina. Too much of their value is dependent on stolen bases.

4. SaberSim Says…

Syndergaard, Keuchel, Archer, Sanchez, and Montgomery are the top starters. The simulator doesn’t know about Sanchez’s stint on the disabled list. Sixth on the list is Wade Miley. The top bats are Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Eric Thames, Jonathan Villar, and Ryan Braun. Good luck picking a first baseman. Interestingly, SaberSim like Foltynewicz AND the Brewers lineup today.