The Daily Grind: 9-11-14 – Presented by FanGraphs

Agenda

1. Shifts For Thought
2. Daily DFS
3. Friday Picks
4. Table

1. Shifts For Thought

Daniel Schwartz provided some excellent food for thought regarding shifts. You absolutely have to factor them into your hitter AND pitcher valuation. They’re a bit complicated to get your head around, so begin trying to implement them early and often.

This season, I was about the only person I knew who implemented shift data into my valuations. Granted, my method was simplistic. I took number of shifts against and assumed a .260 BABIP. Basically, I assumed teams would shift only when it was advantageous. What can I say, I’m not a perfectionist. The data Daniel is offering has more granularity. You can attempt to use individual BABIPs. For example, my method was far to friendly to Chris Davis while a bit harsh to Pedro Alvarez.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: There are 11 games today, but only 10 are accessible to DFSers. That’s because the Twins and Indians are playing a classic doubleheader starting at noon. Four of the games are early.

Kyle Gibson shouldn’t be considered an A plus target, but he is some form of exploitable against the Indians at Progressive Field. His ground ball rate (55 percent) keeps him from being a pushover.

Randall Delgado has a lot to prove as a starting pitcher. Can he go more than five innings? Can he keep his walk rate to a reasonable level? What about his penchant to allow crooked numbers as a reliever? I’ll take the Giants in this one.

Late: Six are late.

Lucky for Cory Rasmus, he’ll face a soft Rangers lineup. Even bad lineups explode on offense sometimes, and Rasmus’ lack of time in the rotation could leave him exposed. On the other side of this matchup is regular target Nick Martinez. Go ahead and pencil the Angels in for five to eight runs this evening.

Clay Buchholz looks to be on a roll. When his command and control are right, he brings a presence to the mound. When they’re off, he gets smacked around. We’ll see which Buchholz shows up today. The Royals will try to limp through the game with Liam Hendriks. He’s your classic eleventh starter, complete with command, control, and meager stuff.

If you want to get sleepy, look at Nate Eovaldi and Mike Fiers at Miller Park. It’s a pure ballpark play where the hitter friendly dimensions could yield some big numbers.

3. Friday Picks

The Yankees and Orioles have a doubleheader tomorrow.

Pitchers to Start: Henderson Alvarez leaves his owners wanting strikeouts. If you can look past that flaw, he’ll face an easy Phillies lineup. Unfortunately, he’ll also face Cole Hamels, so a win will be hard to secure. Do you really need ERA and WHIP?

Tsuyoshi Wada has the pleasure of opposing the Pirates at PNC Park. While he’ll likely thank the park’s spacious dimensions, Gerrit Cole will likely give him a run for his money.

Derek Holland has pitched well in his first two starts of the season. It’s nice to see him avoid walks entirely. On the one hand, the Braves have a pitiful offense. On the other hand, it’s actually quite potent against left-handed pitching. Most of that production came early in the season. For Holland, it’s probably just a matter of avoiding Justin Upton. He’s unlikely to win against Alex Wood.

You could try either side of the Jason Hammel versus James Paxton affair. Hammel has irregular performance and superior support while Paxton has the more exciting stuff.

Pitchers to Exploit: Nate Karns does good things when it comes to his strikeout rate. Still, I’m hesitant to do anything but exploit a pitcher who has a 5.08 ERA at Triple-A. I’ve never watched Karns, so all I know is what his stats sheets say. J.A. Happ is on the other side of this one.

Allen Webster was pushed back a day. Everything I said yesterday still applies.

I’ve grown to kind of like Brett Oberholtzer, but he’s surely screwed against the Angels lefty-eating offense.

Eric Stults is opposed by a soft Diamondbacks lineup. He’s still Eric Stults.

Hitters (power): I’m going to start calling the A’s attack against lefties The Thousandfold Stack. It consists of Josh Donaldson (unavailable), Derek Norris, Jonny Gomes, Nate Frieman, Jed Lowrie, and Craig Gentry.

Trevor Plouffe draws a lefty at fabulously hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field.

Adam Lind seems to bat cleanup now.

Alejandro De Aza bats second for the Orioles on occasion, and he’ll get to swing twice at the short porch.

Hitters (speed): Maybe A.J. Pollock is out there for you?

Norichika Aoki could get things started against Webster.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Weather risks are low, but it looks like the atmosphere is unstable today. Philadelphia and Texas check in as the biggest storm risks at 40 percent.

The Link. The early contest has a couple hitter havens and pitcher heaven. The late contest skews hitter friendly, with only one pitcher’s park.

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