The Coldest Drops This Week 7/19: Yay or Nay?

Yesterday, I discussed the five players with the highest ownership spikes over the last week in CBS Sports leagues. Today, I’ll check in on the players fantasy owners are scrambling to kick to the curb and drop them off their rosters. The most dropped list could be a good place to start if you’re looking to buy low. Let’s see if that’s the case this time or if owners are justified dropping each. Since the top of the list is littered with players on the DL or players demoted to the minors, I will only include those healthy and in the Majors.

Remember when CC Sabathia held a microscopic 2.20 ERA over his 11 starts this season? Many wondered whether he finally adjusted to his lack of velocity and was back to becoming a respectable performer again. However, nothing actually changed…except his luck. His LOB% jumped above 80%, which was never going to last, and his HR/FB rate was a tiny 3.1%. His 4.54 SIERA instead told the story of a pitcher in continued decline. Naturally, his good fortune was bound to run out sooner or later, and it has over his last five starts, as he has posted a 7.94 ERA and suddenly his LOB% and HR/FB rate luck vanished. He deserves to be the top healthy player dropped, but his 46% ownership rate still remains wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too high.

Injuries and poor play fueled Whit Merrifield’s promotion to Kansas City and through July 2nd, he had done pretty well for himself, posting a .332 wOBA. Of course, that was driven by a .388 BABIP, so you knew the collapse was coming. And indeed it has. Since that game, he has posted a brutal .176 wOBA over 34 plate appearances, as his BABIP has fallen back to Earth (.211) and he has been striking out like crazy. The regression has pushed him to the bench the last two games in favor of Christian Colon. Luckily, he has been excellent defensively at second base and Colon isn’t any better of a bet offensively. Still, Merrifield isn’t much of a shallow mixed league option and deserves to be dropped as he has been.

Moving to a team that shifted often and given the opportunity to work with pitching coach Ray Searage made Jon Niese an interesting sleeper this season. That hasn’t exactly worked out as he posted a 5.13 ERA over 18 starts as he couldn’t keep the ball in the park. Now in the bullpen, he’s not going to be much help as a reliever.

When Wade Davis went down with a forearm strain a couple of weeks ago, I placed a respectable bid on Kelvin Herrera, thinking the worst was possible for Davis. It turned out to be nothing and Davis is back already in his familiar closer role. Herrera recorded just one save in Davis’ absence and will return to just being one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. He’ll continue to earn value in AL-Only leagues and deeper mixed leagues, but obviously becomes worthless in shallow mixed leagues with weekly transactions.

Jake Peavy’s fastball velocity is at a career low and yet his SwStk% is at its highest mark since 2007! Curiously, those swings and misses haven’t actually led to strikeouts, as his strikeout rate is nearly identical to last year, when he set a new career low. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, AT&T Park is the perfect place for him, but a .327 BABIP isn’t helping matters. With some luck, he might be able to earn a touch of NL-Only value, but he shouldn’t be owned in anything shallower. I’m not sure why his ownership has changed so dramatically recently, and he certainly shouldn’t be owned in such a high percentage of leagues to begin with.