The Change: Eno’s Second Half Ranks by Eno Sarris July 19, 2016 How do you judge a pitcher’s true talent? Think of Bud Norris, who recently added a cutter and finally ditched that change that was never any good. Think of Sonny Gray, who’s seemingly lost command of his vaunted curveball. Think of Michael Fulmer‘s new changeup. Matt Shoemaker‘s recent (re)dedication to the splitter. Rich Hill‘s constant injuries. Junior Guerra’s nasty stuff, discovered after a move from behind the plate to behind the rubber. These changes are so radical and so abrupt that it seems too simple to settle on one number to judge them. So these ranks are futile! At least these ranks are based on a few numbers in an intuitive way. The base list was sorted for strikeouts plus pop-ups minus walks, for sure. That’s an easy way to ignore balls in play and focus on the the three outcomes that we think pitchers can really handle best. Then I added a list that featured exit velocity in the ideal launch angles, because there’s some evidence that pitchers can suppress their exit velo. And then, when I encountered a name that has seen a change in production recently, I looked at their game logs. I did! Not only to see what their recent work was like, but then to also check if any of those changes in production were related to large changes in pitching mix. Mike Leake is 90% sinkers, cutters and sliders now! Kendall Graveman is 80% sinkers! These things are weird, and they are beautiful, and they are meaningful. And yet, a month from now, at least ten of these ranks will make me want to slap my forehead. It’s the way the world works. Eno Sarris’ Rest of Season Pitching Ranks Rank Player ES 6/1 ES 4/22 ES 2/16 RG 3/8 Diff% 1 Clayton Kershaw 1 1 1 1 100 2 Noah Syndergaard 2 16 16 19 100 3 Jose Fernandez 5 11 11 9 167 4 Stephen Strasburg 3 9 10 11 75 5 Max Scherzer 4 2 2 2 80 6 Madison Bumgarner 9 6 7 6 150 7 Chris Sale 6 3 3 3 86 8 Corey Kluber 10 12 12 7 125 9 Jacob deGrom 12 10 6 10 133 10 Jose Quintana 21 35 38 32 210 11 David Price 7 4 4 4 64 12 Jake Arrieta 8 5 5 5 67 13 Johnny Cueto 17 19 19 20 131 14 Yu Darvish 14 45 35 50 100 15 Carlos Carrasco 11 14 14 15 73 16 Zack Greinke 15 8 8 12 94 17 Steven Matz 19 42 41 55 112 18 Jon Lester 20 20 20 18 111 19 Danny Salazar 13 18 18 22 68 20 Masahiro Tanaka 23 24 23 25 115 21 Justin Verlander 30 41 48 42 143 22 Cole Hamels 22 25 24 21 100 23 Vincent Velasquez 26 83 102 120 113 24 Kyle Hendricks 32 68 70 54 133 25 Felix Hernandez 35 17 17 13 140 26 Julio Teheran 45 70 64 52 173 27 Kenta Maeda 38 57 62 75 141 28 Gerrit Cole 24 15 15 14 86 29 Chris Archer 25 13 13 17 86 30 Aaron Nola 18 63 63 61 60 31 Jerad Eickhoff 46 69 78 97 148 32 John Lackey 29 39 43 45 91 33 Michael Fulmer 68 #N/A #N/A #N/A 206 34 Drew Pomeranz 37 133 129 #N/A 109 35 Matt Shoemaker 81 101 116 126 231 36 Scott Kazmir 39 59 52 44 108 37 Rich Hill 36 90 73 65 97 38 Jake Odorizzi 41 50 50 35 108 39 Lance McCullers 43 44 40 48 110 40 Aaron Sanchez 55 102 n/a #N/A 138 41 Carlos Martinez 53 34 36 33 129 42 Drew Smyly 31 36 37 46 74 43 Jeff Samardzija 40 58 31 37 93 44 Adam Wainwright 65 23 25 29 148 45 Dallas Keuchel 47 21 21 16 104 46 Jason Hammel 44 61 60 58 96 47 Junior Guerra 84 #N/A #N/A #N/A 179 48 Michael Wacha 54 26 26 30 113 49 Joe Ross 56 64 66 69 114 50 Hisashi Iwakuma 67 47 47 38 134 51 Brandon McCarthy 129 116 114 #N/A 253 52 Matt Moore 60 74 98 95 115 53 Anthony DeSclafani 69 56 58 71 130 54 Danny Duffy 101 182 121 114 187 55 Kevin Gausman 49 54 55 64 89 56 Michael Pineda 61 28 28 31 109 57 Robbie Ray 73 96 95 96 128 58 Marco Estrada 72 89 88 74 124 59 Wei-Yin Chen 62 46 45 34 105 60 Jordan Zimmermann 33 48 53 43 55 61 Trevor Bauer 118 88 86 89 193 62 Marcus Stroman 51 31 33 28 82 63 Taijuan Walker 27 43 44 36 43 64 Tanner Roark 71 165 156 #N/A 111 65 Carlos Rodon 58 49 49 63 89 66 Josh Tomlin 70 143 140 103 106 67 Sonny Gray 48 22 22 24 72 68 Chris Tillman 64 109 106 101 94 69 Jonathan Gray 76 115 113 108 110 70 Ian Kennedy 59 71 68 62 84 71 Adam Conley 80 91 110 #N/A 113 72 CC Sabathia 74 97 94 112 103 73 Rick Porcello 52 75 74 73 71 74 Mike Foltynewicz 90 138 132 138 122 75 Steven Wright 82 #N/A #N/A #N/A 109 76 Jeremy Hellickson 86 140 120 107 113 77 Jaime Garcia 57 53 56 67 74 78 Collin McHugh 100 51 51 41 128 79 J.A. Happ 103 #N/A #N/A #N/A 130 80 Mike Leake 92 85 82 68 115 81 Hector Santiago 98 87 85 92 121 82 Alex Wood 97 80 76 81 118 83 Jameson Taillon 124 173 163 #N/A 149 84 Francisco Liriano 66 29 29 26 79 85 Gio Gonzalez 42 62 61 49 49 86 Nicholas Tropeano 75 108 101 #N/A 87 87 James Paxton 114 166 178 121 131 88 Blake Snell 77 161 191 #N/A 88 89 Mike Fiers 105 52 54 60 118 90 Tyson Ross 78 27 27 23 87 91 Zack Wheeler 112 120 118 123 123 92 Nathan Eovaldi 34 67 69 83 37 93 Edinson Volquez 85 98 96 80 91 94 Garrett Richards 139 30 30 27 148 95 Daniel Mengden #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 96 Jimmy Nelson 63 82 81 66 66 97 Tyler Anderson #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 98 Yordano Ventura 96 32 32 39 98 99 Sean Manaea 89 134 154 #N/A 90 100 Hyun-Jin Ryu 120 73 71 90 120 101 Zachary Davies 158 139 135 #N/A 156 102 Bartolo Colon 109 129 126 110 107 103 Jose Berrios 108 107 134 109 105 104 Lucas Giolito 107 106 133 127 103 105 Bud Norris #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 106 Patrick Corbin 79 40 46 51 75 107 Eduardo Rodriguez 83 60 59 76 78 108 Mike Montgomery #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 109 Alex Cobb 125 117 115 122 115 110 Cody Reed #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 111 Kendall Graveman 93 125 139 134 84 112 Tyler Glasnow 127 155 150 144 113 113 Tyler Chatwood 126 #N/A #N/A #N/A 112 114 Archie Bradley 91 144 141 #N/A 80 115 Kyle Gibson 131 79 97 78 114 116 Dan Straily 88 157 170 #N/A 76 117 Daniel Norris 133 119 117 115 114 118 James Shields 106 37 39 40 90 119 Drew Hutchison 136 122 100 119 114 120 Jake Peavy 130 86 83 85 108 121 Matt Cain 140 113 109 137 116 122 Matt Boyd 117 163 155 #N/A 96 123 Andrew Cashner 115 66 67 57 93 124 Tyler Skaggs 159 178 169 142 128 125 Adam Warren 147 152 147 #N/A 118 126 Luis Severino 94 38 42 53 75 127 Shelby Miller 111 55 57 56 87 128 Raisel Iglesias 28 33 34 47 22 129 Nate Karns 50 76 77 93 39 130 Chase Anderson 95 111 93 128 73 131 Brandon Finnegan 104 104 105 130 79 132 Ervin Santana 137 99 99 88 104 133 Wade Miley 102 95 111 82 77 134 Jesse Hahn 119 78 84 87 89 135 Chad Bettis #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 136 Martin Perez 122 141 136 118 90 137 Miguel Gonzalez 152 174 164 149 111 138 A.J. Griffin #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 139 Rubby de la Rosa 113 84 90 99 81 140 Zach Eflin #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 141 John Lamb 132 105 79 131 94 142 Tyler Duffey 142 114 112 140 100 143 Cody Anderson 121 124 196 #N/A 85 144 Matthew Wisler 123 168 158 124 85 145 Tim Lincecum #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 146 Colby Lewis 141 196 189 #N/A 97 147 Ricky Nolasco 143 201 195 #N/A 97 148 R.A. Dickey 151 172 162 91 102 149 Logan Verrett #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 150 Julio Urias 87 151 180 #N/A 58 151 Ivan Nova 161 198 192 #N/A 107 152 Jon Niese 149 169 159 100 98 153 Eddie Butler 128 #N/A #N/A #N/A 84 154 Anibal Sanchez 134 65 65 70 87 155 Jered Weaver 150 170 160 141 97 156 Christopher Devenski 138 #N/A #N/A #N/A 88 157 Henry Owens 157 103 104 147 100 158 Ubaldo Jimenez 146 150 146 94 92 159 Mat Latos 145 121 119 105 91 160 Williams Perez 160 184 175 #N/A 100 161 Matt Harvey 16 7 9 8 10 162 Juan Nicasio 99 118 n/a #N/A 61 163 Jhoulys Chacin 110 #N/A #N/A #N/A 67 164 Andrew Heaney 116 77 75 72 71 165 Clay Buchholz 135 72 72 59 82 166 Derek Holland 144 92 88 84 87 167 Shane Greene 148 162 153 #N/A 89 168 David Phelps 153 181 173 #N/A 91 169 Trevor May 154 183 125 150 91 170 Henderson Alvarez 155 185 176 #N/A 91 171 Pat Dean 156 #N/A #N/A #N/A 91 172 Marco Gonzales 162 149 145 #N/A 94 Aimed generally at 15-team mixed league redraft leagues with rotisserie 5×5 scoring. Diff% shows how the player has moved since my last ranking, with higher = moving up.