The Change: Eno’s Pitching Ranks

We looked at strikeouts plus pop-ups minus walks, even if I need to re-run those numbers with pop-ups divided by plate appearances. And then we looked at Arsenal Scores, even if I need to re-run those numbers with more precision. Those things, plus projections, all inform my rankings, which I’ll run below.

But a word about my process. Pitching foils projection systems more than hitting for a reason: there are small changes that can make a huge difference. And changes in role are huge.

So, if you sort for the third category in my rankings below (difference percentage), you’ll find a bunch of guys that made small changes down the stretch that I think will make a big difference. And a bunch of guys that I think will win the fifth starter role. As well as guys that get hidden outs with the pop-up, and a bunch of guys undervalued by their overall numbers despite good arsenals.

You might be surprised to hear that I don’t run this all through a projection system and press go, and then run the rankings. That might be the best way to go. But I’m more intuitive. I’d rather play the would you rather and rely on my first impression in some cases. I’d rather go by my own sense of the depth charts than any that is put together for me. I’d rather feel my way through the ranks.

So, yeah, my default rankings are basically straight out of the auction calculator. That helps me stay grounded in the numbers. But then I move guys around like a human being, using all the inputs at my disposal, making intuitive choices along the way. And this is what popped out of my brain machine.

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Eno Sarris Pitching Ranks

Eno Sarris	Player	RG RK	Diff%
1	Clayton Kershaw	1	100
2	Max Scherzer	2	100
3	Chris Sale	3	100
4	David Price	4	100
5	Jake Arrieta	5	100
6	Madison Bumgarner	8	133
7	Zack Greinke	12	171
8	Stephen Strasburg	10	125
9	Jose Fernandez	6	67
10	Matt Harvey	9	90
11	Jacob deGrom	11	100
12	Corey Kluber	7	58
13	Chris Archer	17	131
14	Carlos Carrasco	14	100
15	Gerrit Cole	16	107
16	Noah Syndergaard	19	119
17	Felix Hernandez	13	76
18	Danny Salazar	24	133
19	Johnny Cueto	20	105
20	Jon Lester	18	90
21	Dallas Keuchel	15	71
22	Sonny Gray	27	123
23	Masahiro Tanaka	23	100
24	Cole Hamels	22	92
25	Adam Wainwright	26	104
26	Michael Wacha	36	138
27	Tyson Ross	21	78
28	Michael Pineda	29	104
29	Francisco Liriano	25	86
30	Garrett Richards	28	93
31	Jeff Samardzija	30	97
32	Drew Smyly	50	156
33	Yordano Ventura	40	121
34	Marcus Stroman	31	91
35	Raisel Iglesias	43	123
36	Yu Darvish	38	106
37	Carlos Martinez	37	100
38	Jose Quintana	33	87
39	James Shields	39	100
40	Lance McCullers	48	120
41	Steven Matz	56	137
42	Luis Severino	54	129
43	John Lackey	47	109
44	Taijuan Walker	42	95
45	Wei-Yin Chen	44	98
46	Patrick Corbin	49	107
47	Hisashi Iwakuma	32	68
48	Justin Verlander	41	85
49	Carlos Rodon	60	122
50	Jake Odorizzi	34	68
51	Collin McHugh	46	90
52	Scott Kazmir	35	67
53	Jordan Zimmermann	45	85
54	Mike Fiers	59	109
55	Kevin Gausman	66	120
56	Jaime Garcia	69	123
57	Shelby Miller	62	109
58	Anthony DeSclafani	68	117
59	Eduardo Rodriguez	74	125
60	Jason Hammel	61	102
61	Gio Gonzalez	51	84
62	Kenta Maeda	76	123
63	Aaron Nola	63	100
64	Julio Teheran	55	86
65	Anibal Sanchez	64	98
66	Joe Ross	71	108
67	Andrew Cashner	52	78
68	Kyle Hendricks	57	84
69	Ian Kennedy	58	84
70	Nathan Eovaldi	78	111
71	Hyun-Jin Ryu	75	106
72	Clay Buchholz	53	74
73	Rich Hill	65	89
74	Rick Porcello	70	95
75	Andrew Heaney	77	103
76	John Lamb	99	130
77	Alex Wood	85	110
78	Nate Karns	86	110
79	Jerad Eickhoff	105	133
80	Brett Anderson	67	84
81	Derek Holland	73	90
82	Jimmy Nelson	72	88
83	Mike Leake	80	96
84	Jake Peavy	88	105
85	Kris Medlen	102	120
86	Hector Santiago	101	117
87	Jesse Hahn	87	100
88	Marco Estrada	79	90
89	Trevor Bauer	91	102
90	Rubby de la Rosa	97	108
91	Phil Hughes	81	89
92	Erasmo Ramirez	92	100
93	Chase Anderson	134	144
94	CC Sabathia	121	129
95	Robbie Ray	83	87
96	Edinson Volquez	94	98
97	Kyle Gibson	103	106
98	Matt Moore	90	92
99	Ervin Santana	98	99
100	Nicholas Tropeano	145	145
101	Vincent Velasquez	132	131
102	Chris Bassitt	158	155
103	Henry Owens	146	142
104	Brandon Finnegan	155	149
105	Chris Tillman	110	105
106	Chris Heston	111	105
107	Drew Hutchison	118	110
108	Homer Bailey	125	116
109	Matt Cain	107	98
110	Adam Conley	157	143
111	Wade Miley	84	76
112	Tyler Duffey	147	131
113	Jonathan Gray	113	100
114	Brandon McCarthy	159	139
115	Alex Cobb	116	101
116	Matt Shoemaker	117	101
117	Daniel Norris	112	96
118	Zack Wheeler	115	97
119	Mat Latos	106	89
120	Jeremy Hellickson	93	78
121	Danny Duffy	119	98
122	Jesse Chavez	95	78
123	Roenis Elias	151	123
124	J.A. Happ	82	66
125	Trevor May	154	123
126	Bartolo Colon	114	90
127	Chad Bettis	143	113
128	Jorge de la Rosa	108	84
129	Drew Pomeranz	184	143
130	Yovani Gallardo	96	74
131	C.J. Wilson	100	76
132	Mike Foltynewicz	127	96
133	Lucas Giolito	137	103
134	Jose Berrios	120	90
135	Zachary Davies	177	131
136	Martin Perez	109	80
137	Robbie Erlin	126	92
138	Jarred Cosart	150	109
139	Kendall Graveman	144	104
140	Josh Tomlin	104	74
141	Archie Bradley	175	124
142	Tyler Lyons	185	130
143	Charlie Morton	136	95
144	Tom Koehler	138	96
145	Marco Gonzales	149	103
146	Ubaldo Jimenez	89	61
147	Adam Warren	192	131
148	Taylor Jungmann	135	91
149	Joe Kelly	123	83
150	Tyler Glasnow	167	111
151	Chris Young	133	88
152	Yusmeiro Petit	162	107
153	Shane Greene	174	114
154	Sean Manaea	199	129
155	Matt Boyd	181	117
156	Tanner Roark	163	104
157	Michael Lorenzen	172	110
158	Matthew Wisler	128	81
159	Jon Niese	124	78
160	Jered Weaver	139	87
161	Dylan Bundy	180	112
162	R.A. Dickey	122	75
163	Jameson Taillon	171	105
164	Miguel Gonzalez	148	90
165	Frankie Montas	198	120
166	Jeff Locke	129	78
167	Vidal Nuno	194	116
168	Matt Garza	142	85
169	Tyler Skaggs	140	83
170	Dan Straily	165	97
171	Shaun Marcum	178	104
172	Ryan Weber	200	116
173	David Phelps	160	92
174	Colin Rea	173	99
175	Williams Perez	186	106
176	Henderson Alvarez	188	107
177	Doug Fister	141	80
178	James Paxton	130	73
179	Mark Buehrle	153	85
180	Julio Urias	164	91
181	Kyle Lohse	161	89
182	Jordan Lyles	193	106
183	Wily Peralta	131	72
184	Scott Feldman	169	92
185	Ryan Vogelsong	196	106
186	Alfredo Simon	183	98
187	Aaron Harang	187	100
188	Justin Masterson	189	101
189	Colby Lewis	166	88
190	Tommy Milone	152	80
191	Blake Snell	156	82
192	Ivan Nova	168	88
193	Erik Johnson	170	88
194	Brett Oberholtzer	179	92
195	Ricky Nolasco	182	93
196	Cody Anderson	190	97
197	John Danks	191	97
198	Carlos Frias	195	98
199	Manny Banuelos	197	99
200	Tyler Matzek	200	100

RG RK = RotoGraphs ranks
Diff% = (RGRK – my Rank)*100
(higher means I like them more than consensus)

Here’s a fun thing to do with the ranks. Sort by Diff% (descending) like I said above. You’ll basically get all the guys I like more than consensus. Without really looking at other peoples ranks, I outed my own ‘sleepers.’ It’s full of all the names you’d expect.

I’ll update these again in March, when we know a little bit more about depth charts — after all, there are 70 unsigned free agents that may change things up in the next month. And, hey, since this is the product of my sense of reasoning, I may even listen to your impassioned defense or attack on one player or another in the comments section. Keep it civil, though, I have a three year old at home that yells at me enough for three lifetimes.