Reach Or Sleep
If you participate in snake or circular drafts, you’ll have asked the following questions. Do I need to reach for Player X? Can I wait on Player Y? Once you’re in the draft room, the meta game revolves around guessing upon which players your leaguemates will and will not pounce.
Yesterday, Chad Young and I had the 15th pick in the dynasty league The Devil’s Rejects. It’s a 20-team league with 28 keepers, 45 player rosters, and a circular draft. We can select any player in the world regardless of affiliation. While very few of you will be faced with similar decisions, this league creates a lot of reach or sleep scenarios.
The top of our draft board read Carson Fulmer, Hyun-soo Kim, and Delvin Perez. Draft prospects like A.J. Puk and Jason Groome were kept while others were selected before it was our turn. Fulmer was the first selection of the draft while Kim was snagged eighth overall by Ben Duronio. Perez was still available at number 15, as was the recent Cuban defector Yulieski Gurriel (his brother Lourdes was picked earlier) and another top 2016 draft name.
Chad and I briefly talked about targeting 31-year-old Gurriel first even though he wasn’t atop our draft board. Perez is one of the least hyped candidates for the first pick of the draft. I felt there was a chance he could last until our second pick. Chad talked me out of it, saying that one of the other 19 owners would surely share our valuations.
Sure enough, our selection of Perez elicited a groan from the guy with the 17th pick. Not only was Perez not going to make it back to us in the second round, he wasn’t even going to escape the first. Our decision to play it straight paid off.
Here’s a more common scenario. Let’s say you own the 10th pick in a 12 team snake draft – meaning you also pick 15th. When it’s your turn, let’s say your draft board reads Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenado, and A.J. Pollock. Let’s also say the other big third basemen – Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, and Kris Bryant were already selected.
This is a situation when it could benefit you to take Arenado over Betts. There’s a decent chance Betts or Pollock will fall into your lap at pick 15. Even if they don’t, the top of the outfield market is well populated. Depending on your opinion of Miguel Sano, third base falls off a cliff after the fourth or fifth name.
Later in the same draft, let’s say you’re on the clock with pick 39. Kyle Schwarber is atop your board. You happen to be extremely bullish about Schwarber, projecting a top 10 season with the help of his catcher eligibility. You prefer him to Buster Posey. Both Xander Bogaerts and Francisco Lindor are also still available. Your next pick is number 58. There’s no chance Schwarber, Posey, Bogaerts, or Lindor stick around. You have to decide if you’ll reach for your fantasy crush or stick with a safer pick.
If you’re on the book ends of a snake draft, the reach or sleep decision is informed largely by your position. If your next pick is soon, sleeping looks safer. If it will be awhile, then you may be forced to reach. Owners in the middle of the draft will constantly be tempted to sleep on their favorite guys. Sometimes it will pay off, sometimes you’ll get burned.
As Chad pointed out to me when we had our own decision to make regarding Perez, the size of the league matters. You might think you have the most bullish projection for Rougned Odor. If you’re in a 20 team league, chances are somebody shares your lofty opinion. A 10 team format makes it much easier to play the waiting game. Not only is it less likely somebody shares your valuation, the opportunity cost of missing Odor is low. You’ll be left with someone like Ben Zobrist, Joe Panik, or Kolten Wong. Those are nice consolation prizes.
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Brad, what’s your definition of reaching? I see the term used all the time and my perception is always “paying more than you value him because you don’t think you’ll get him if you don’t pick him now”. That is a terrible strategy, but because of this, I get the feeling this isn’t what is meant by the term reach. If it is, I don’t understand how this is a decision. There is rarely ever a time it makes sense to overpay for a player in a snake draft based on your valuation (there are some occasions that do occur, but not often).
It’s not exactly how you describe it. Take my Schwarber scenario. If your valuations disagree sharply with the consensus, then you can still reach by consensus standards without having overpaid per your own analysis. That’s mostly what I mean by reach.
There are also scenarios with skilled positions like catcher and shortstop when an owner on the turn may have to overpay to ensure they have someone worth owning.
Reliable and good closers can fall into this same category. Being on the turn of a 20-team draft can mean all of them gone between two of your picks.
Ahhhh so it relates to ADP. I don’t consider that reaching. If a player’s ADP is round 8 and you value him as a 3rd rounder, obviously you can’t risk waiting until the 8th rd to nab him. So you take him in the 6th or 7th to ensure you get him and still lock in strong profit based on your projection. Guess it’s just an issue with semantics.
To respond to Jeff, yeah with closers, often actual value goes out the window, so it’s definitely an exception.
Discussing a runs on a position would be an interesting add to this conversation. As Jeff points out closers often go in groups. Is it still a reach of there is a run on a position and you feel you have to grab one or miss out?
Brad I am sure you have a lot more access to information than I do, but I was wondering where do you get all this information on guys like Perez and such. I think I do quite a bit of research, even in the offseason, and I didn’t know his name off the top of my head. I mean I know of guys like Otani in Japan, but that was more luck reading a BR article than anything. If you have a good free source other than the common ones out there I would really appreciate it.
Perez came across my radar via a KLaw article with corroboration from some other sources. Nearly all of my prospect research is via Twitter and Google (and the usual baseball sources). Unfortunately, it’s not practical for me to actually get out to games for first hand knowledge or develop a network of scouting resources. I know a couple guys I can ask very general questions, but they usually give me vague responses.
A couple good prospects snuck through my radar too. When researching top amateurs before draft season, that’s going to happen.
I thought the reference was to a situation where you (not ADP) valued a certain player lower than you chose to take him because the remaining options likely to exist at the position next time you pick are so much worse, while other positions should still be flush with decent options. So I disagree that it is always a bad option to reach beyond your absolute valuations when contextual issues relating to who remains available at what position comes into play.
There always seems to be a round where I’m not a fan of the next 20 or so players by ADP. Do I grab the guy 21 spots down the board that I like? That’s how I would see a reach.
I think of it as grabbing someone before his projected draft slot through ADP or whatever forecasting software might be telling you, not before your own projected value, so still in the butter zone of positive value but not quite as buttery as you might have hoped.
paying for a guy’s best case scenario. see it with young guys all the time.
yeah I could see this being a useful part of the “reach” definition. paying for ceiling regardless of floor or other possible (probable) outcomes.
As much as I love RotoGraphs, I think that sometimes it loses sight of the fact that fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun. I reach for guys on the White Sox (and I know a lot of guys in my league will reach for Cubs’ players). It’s funner to have players on your favorite team that you’re rooting for anyway, and I’ll pay a little extra for that. I’m reaching – completely – on Miguel Sano. Young players bursting with what-if-potential? Much more exciting than old & boring players. (And this is usually in shown ADP.)
There’s no such word as “funner.”
What you’re seeing here is language evolution in action. Enjoy it. Savor it. Some day tell your grandchildren: “I was there. I saw the words change to fit the meaning. Like, you could say something one day, and then two months later you could say something else. It was like – you didn’t have to drive the same route every day. You could take the direct route. You could take the scenic route. You could sit in traffic if you wanted! Who’d want to do that? I don’t know? Not me. But you could make your own path too. You could get there how you wanted. It was the most excitingest of times.”
“You play to win the game!”
homer n. (ho-mer): 1. (baseball) A baseball struck by the batter that passes over the outfield fence. 2. (baseball) a fantasy sports participant that favors players from their home town, and because of that loses regularly.
WAR DELVIN PEREZ