The Argument for Logan Webb

I don’t only like sexy pitchers with double-digit strikeout rates. There are guys for whom I’ll make arguments because they’re being slightly or greatly underdrafted or I’ll pick out a guy who seems about right in Logan Webb, who readers might get a little bit of sticker shock.

Note the list of players with an XFIP- of 65 or lower in 2021 consists of:

Corbin Burnes
Logan Webb

That’s it. That’s the list.

Webb was the epitome of a bad pitch-to-contact guy in his 2019 debut and the shortened 2020 before exploding to find a lot more strikeouts, a ton of control, and continued great power prevention. We hunt down K/9 in volume for good reason, but it’s important to focus on Webb’s control improvements because control keeps him ahead of the count for strikeouts and keeps him in the game for innings.

The velocity on Webb’s fastball didn’t improve last season. It’s sat in the 93 range his entire short career. Yet, his K/9 went from 7.95 in 2019-20 to 9.59 in 2021. The 5.36 ERA to 4.15 FIP gap from the pre-2021 seasons was gonna close naturally, but to close up to 3.03 ERA wasn’t really foreseeable. And he was actually unlucky, as his FIP was 2.72. Webb’s control created this change more than anything.

Webb’s 3.64 BB/9 in 2019-20 made him ineffectively wild. Reigning that into 2.18 makes him arguably a top-ten real-life pitcher in MLB. And when we see a really good real-life pitcher posting over a strikeout per inning, we have to take notice. We don’t have to project improvements to his rates to say he’s adequately being drafted in the sixth round when we can foresee his innings going up from around 5.2 in 2021 to over six.

There are lot of variables that take pitchers out of games. A manager’s strategy is out of our control. But baserunners are within Webb’s control. First, Webb posted a low ERA in 2021, despite a BABIP near .310. Second, his run prevention can be predictably low due to his sub-1.00 HR/9 being totally sustainable with his 5.5% career barrel rate. And last, but not least, Webb’s low BB/9 trickles down into other factors which cap his baserunners.

Of 68 pitchers who posted 140-plus innings in 2021, Webb’s 9.59 K/9 ranked only 25th, but his 66.6% first-strike rate was tied for ninth with Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea. Again, control is more than just low walks for someone with a contact rate like Webb’s; control is getting ahead in the count early and often to create unforced errors. This first-strike rate with the ability to avoid walks should keep Webb in games longer this season, which is all we need with the rates he can post.

Webb only threw 100-plus pitches twice last season, but threw 90-plus 13 times. In the 22 games where he walked two or fewer, he went six-plus innings in 15 of them. In the four games where he walked three or more, he went 5.1, 7.0, 3.2, and 5.0 innings. At 25, he should be able to handle a greater workload and I wanna be in front of it.

Waiting and seeing has some value. Webb has a capped ceiling in the 10.00 K/9 range, but gives us so much in run prevention that all we’ll need from him is innings. The Giants aren’t the best team to expect 200 innings from any starter, but Webb’s control with the baserunner prevention (and therefore run prevention) is enough to wanna get in on the ground floor for volume. Because once his volume comes, good luck getting him from another manager. Scoop him while he’s still a sixth-rounder.