Take a Chance on Sisco
It’s impossible to resist an opportunity for a cheesy pun. If you haven’t followed the Orioles or prefer researching Major Leaguers to minor leaguers, you are completely forgiven for not realizing this article is all about the Orioles’ latest call-up, catcher Chance Sisco. Though it feels like he has floated around prospect lists forever, Sisco is still just 24 years old and has just 206 MLB plate appearances to his name. Clearly, that’s way too small a sample to give up on him, which would be true of any player, especially a top prospect.
Sisco first got his feet wet back in 2017 when he was a September call-up. He showed enough at the big league level to open the 2018 season as with the Orioles, sharing time behind the plate with Caleb Joseph. Unfortunately, it didn’t go so well. He posted a hideous .259 wOBA, struck out about 36% of the time, hit few line drives, and displayed little power. Oh, and his framing metrics were poor, as per StatCorner. So the boot he got, back to Triple-A he went.
He was certainly better at Triple-A, but heck, it ain’t too difficult to outhit a .259 wOBA. He posted a .319 mark, which failed to impress, and it meant that he would have had to do a lot this spring training to open the year with the big league club. It didn’t happen.
So he began his fourth year in Triple-A, which is the point at which you pray a major offensive breakout occurs. Thankfully, it did. Both his strikeout rate and SwStk% fell to their lowest marks during his various Triple-A stints, he became a line drive machine, continued his impressive avoidance of the pop-up, and finally experienced that big power surge that was hoped for sooner or later.
That power spike was driven by a near 30% HR/FB rate, which, amazingly, was actually the first time his HR/FB rate even reached double digits over a reasonable sample size. How crazy is that?! His ISO skyrocketed to .241, nearly double his previous reasonable sample size career best of .128. Now we have a catcher prospect with some real offensive potential!
Even better is that despite the fact we all think of the Orioles as a weak offensive team, their ballpark is excellent for power. Last year, it inflated left-handed home runs by 14%, which ranked fifth best in baseball. So the ballpark will do its best to help stave off regression from his Triple-A power explosion. Surely, regression is coming, but it would be a lot more if he called AT&T Park home, for example.
With the Orioles going nowhere, they are full-on youth movement. Well, at least they are trying all sorts of things to find out what sticks. Sisco figures to get a long leash and as a left-handed batter, might end up slotting in on the strong side of a platoon with the incumbent Pedro Severino.
The catcher position has been a wasteland and it’s not often a backstop is recalled that has real offensive potential and the chance for regular playing time. Sisco is a buy in nearly all league sizes and formats.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Worth dropping Lucroy for?
Yeah, Lucroy’s fly ball Hard% at its lowest mark since 2011, not buying the return to a double digit HR/FB rate.
Lucroy is a tough one to figure out. I rostered him for a bit last year because his granular stats were just really not that different from what he was doing when he was one of the best hitting catchers in the game. BB%, K%, batted ball stats, plate discipline stats, even the Statcast numbers back to 2015 – none of it is all that different from his 2012-2016 peak. He doesn’t get shifted at all so it isn’t that.
Yet here we are on year 3 of him being borderline (depending on league depth of course).
“Even better is that despite the fact we all think of the Orioles as a weak offensive team, their ballpark is excellent for power. Last year, it inflated left-handed home runs by 14%, which ranked fifth best in baseball. So the ballpark will do its best to help stave off regression from his Triple-A power explosion.”
Not to mention, Harbor Park in Norfolk is hardly considered a friendly park for hitters.
drop carson kelly for him?
Tough call. Kelly is outperforming expectations, but has posted solid skills supporting his results. I feel like since he’s already doing and will record a much better strikeout rate, he’s safer than Cisco, though not sure who’s playing time would be more secure.
Worth dropping Narvaez for?
Man, have I been wrong about him! Fly ball Hard% is down, but Pull% has surged, helping support the teen HR/FB rate. I’d stick with the guy who is the clear starter and has done it for about a full season’s worth of at-bats now.
Worth dropping Posey for? OBP 5×5
Wow, so sad that this is actually a legit question! Posey’s strikeout rate jump is a killer and is hurts his best attribute — ability to hit for average. That said, he should still easily beat Sisco in average, so it’s really up to you — do you want the safety of a good batting average and middle of the order hitter and every day at-bats, or the power upside of Sisco in a far better park?
Would you take over Garver? Worried Garver won’t get the at-bats.
Curious of your thoughts on how he compares to Danny Jansen? Jansen’s still walking quite a bit, his batted ball metrics don’t look too bad, with the exception of a below average (high) ground ball rate. 40% hard hit% isn’t nothing out of a catcher…but he’s sitting often and batting 8th or 9th when he does play.
Am I just imagining things that aren’t there with Jansen? You’re one of the best writers in the business, keep up the great work Mike.
Thanks! That compliment will certainly get you a response 🙂 Given the Blue Jays willingness to turn over their roster and demote struggling hitters, I’m shocked Jansen has survived this long. The thing with catcher is that there’s a much higher bust rate on the offensive side as there is so much to learn defensively. This could just be a very slow start, or, Jansen doesn’t figure it out offensively for years.
There were glimmers in his minor league stats that showed potential, like strong plate discipline. But mixed power output means that even improved performance doesn’t yield a heck of a lot.
I’d try for Sisco. Worst case is that Sisco ends up like Jansen!
Drop him for Astudillo?
Drop who?
Obviously I meant drop Astudillo for him…
With Garver back and the Twins healthy now, Astudillo’s playing time outlook isn’t great. So yeah, would prob go with Sisco.
Ok thanks lol
Mike, great article. So great in fact that I dropped Pedro Severino this morning even though I had him teed up for tonight’s game against lefty Drew Smyly! So I missed Severino’s career day, but trust you’d agree that Sisco is the long-term play, right?
Haha, looks like Severino isn’t quite ready to give up his job. The Orioles aren’t exactly run logically, so this game could certainly hurt Sisco’s chance for playing time in the near term.