Archive for yovani gallardo

As is usually the case, the selection of streamable starting pitchers is much heavier on risk than reward, but there is actually a widely-available starter who looks like a pretty safe bet to help your rotation. It’s Felix Pena, who is unowned in at least 85 percent of the leagues on ESPN, CBS and Yahoo and more than 75 percent of Fantrax leagues. In a column I wrote just last week, I made the case for viewing Pena as Patrick Corbin Lite.
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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

At present, the Orioles are far from favorites to win the AL East. In fact, our own projections have Baltimore finishing dead-last in the division this year, with a 78-84 record. Personally, I think they’re considerably better than the Rays, but that’s not the point of this column.

As was the case with Jeff Sullivan’s piece on Friday, Yovani Gallardo may or may not have signed with the Orioles by the time you’re reading this. If you want an in-depth look at Gallardo himself, I highly suggest reading Jeff’s article. Either way, it’s interesting to dig into the “why” behind the club’s pursuit of Gallardo, who will turn 30 later this month.

It would certainly seem that the Orioles view themselves as contenders, as they would need to sacrifice the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft to sign Gallardo, because he declined the Rangers’ qualifying offer. Why else would a team coming off a .500 season in a highly competitive division cough up a top-15 pick and ~$15 million a year for a solid — yet unspectacular — mid-rotation arm? Especially when that organization possesses an already-depleted farm system?

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Injuries decimated the 2014 Texas Rangers. Injuries to Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo and Jurickson Profar played a big part in Texas hitters amassing the fifth lowest WAR total in the league. Injuries to Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Martin Perez and Matt Harrison led to the Rangers using 15 different starting pitchers. As a group, those starters amassed the ninth lowest WAR total of any rotation.

The good news is that Darvish and Holland, their two starters who were above league average according to xFIP when healthy last year, are expected to enter the season healthy. The bad news is that Perez and Harrison won’t be back until at least summer and potentially might not be back at all this year. That’s especially true for Harrison who has had three back surgeries in two years and considered retirement after his last surgery. But they’ve added a few new arms that will hopefully limit the number of Nick Tepesch and Nick Martinez starts that Rangers fans have to watch this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Prior to the season, I wrote an article in which I warned fantasy owners to stay away from Yovani Gallardo on draft day. I cited his velocity decline, his decreased strikeout rate, his decrease swinging-strike rate, and his increasingly-ineffective curveball. I mentioned how he could experience a bounce-back season, but the right-hander would need to reverse a couple of those worrisome trends.

After a trio of starts this year, however, Gallardo has thrown the ball brilliantly. He’s tossed a quality start in every outing. He owns a 0.96 ERA and 2.23 FIP, and the Milwaukee Brewers have won all three of his starts. He also has a .333 OBP at the dish, which is largely irrelevant, but I love when pitchers aren’t inept at the plate and it does mark the first time the hurler drew a walk since 2011.

So, where did the preseason analysis go awry? To put it differently, where has Yovani Gallardo shown improvement and what didn’t I see coming into this season?

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The Brewers’ starting rotation got much more interesting last week, as they inked right-hander Matt Garza to a four-year deal with a vesting option. He and Kyle Lohse should headline a rotation that could surprise some people who wrote them off after posting a 4.13 ERA and 4.23 FIP in the first half last year.

In the second half, the Brewers’ rotation collectively turned a corner. Their 3.42 ERA was better than the Cardinals and Athletics in the latter half of the season, and it hints at what could be brewing in Milwaukee if the majority of breaks go the Brewers’ way. Marco Estrada was a beast down the stretch, Wily Peralta displayed signs of putting it together, and Yovani Gallardo finally tightened the tourniquet and stopped the bleeding.

Adding Matt Garza to the mix gives the Brewers five solid starters with a pair of intriguing arms waiting in the wings with Tyler Thornburg and Jimmy Nelson. It’s not a top-heavy rotation that will awe opposing teams, but it’s a rotation that could pair a couple number-two starters with three mid-rotation guys. Of course, that’s banking on no severe regression from anyone, but the organization has quietly assembled a starting rotation that projects to be at least league average.

But let’s look at the fantasy value because the name brands may not be where the value truly lies.

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Episode 87

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris preview the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 100 min of joyous analysis, & excuse the barking dog about 90 minutes in.

FSTA draft results mentioned several times in the show

Prior to the 2013 season, right-hander Yovani Gallardo had been a number-two starter for the Milwaukee Brewers and roughly a third-tier starter for fantasy owners. He’s been a good source of strikeouts and an ERA between 3.50 and 3.75 on an annual basis. But owners have largely spent the last five seasons waiting for Gallardo to take the next step forward.

This can be seen by the fact that he was the 24th-drafted starter on draft day, selected in the same breath as James Shields, Max Scherzer and Mat Latos. All three of those starters finished the season as a top-25 starter. Gallardo, on the other hand, suffered through the worst season of his career. He compiled a 4.18 ERA, saw his strikeout numbers drop significantly, and was ranked outside the top-75 fantasy starters.

To be fair, it wasn’t a complete trainwreck of a season for the 27-year-old hurler. He barely kept his ERA under 5.00 in the first half, but he wrestled the train back on the tracks in the second half, posting a very solid 3.09 ERA in 67 innings. The turnaround has led some to believe Gallardo’s first half was mere aberration and he’ll return to his career norms in 2014.

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Yesterday Blake Murphy detailed how some teams are using a lot more players in their lineups late in the season so that we can identify good pitching matchups. More youngsters in the lineups means better stats for pitchers. But young hurlers don’t see as much late season experience because of innings limit concerns. This explains why a large majority of the probable starters today are guys who have been in the majors for most of the season. In my estimation, all but three or four of today’s probables have been around for most of the year.

Today’s probables also happen to be a pretty above average bunch. Below is a chart showing how today’s starters have fared this year compared to league average.

Because there are so many good starters going today, you’re probably going to need to load up on more expensive hitters facing the few bad starters today. To save some money for bats, we’ll pick some of the cheaper starters with at least decent matchups. After the jump there will be a chart showing which of today’s starters you should be stacking up hitters against and how those starters fare against hitters of each handedness, and then we’ll pick some names.

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Back on April 21st, I wrote a Kicking Rocks piece entitled, “Don’t Chase the Ace” in which I lamented going pitching heavy in my draft.  I was disgruntled with the fact that my offense was anemic while I continued to watch my ratios explode with each and every start from my supposed stable of high quality aces.  While there were several of you that felt my pain, there were also many of you that criticized me for my concerns so early on in the season.  I was then asked to re-visit this 3 months into the season, so as we get ready to head into the All Star Break, here we go… Read the rest of this entry »

For years I have preached about the immense depth at starting pitching.  You can find plenty of quality starters for cheap in your draft and, with the help of the waiver wire, can build a successful fantasy rotation without having to invest heavily in an ace or two.  With a nice complement of some quality relievers, you can go cheap on starters and, in turn, bulk up on better hitters.  In the end, your team dominates in the offensive categories, puts up a solid showing in almost all of the pitching categories, and leaves you at the top of your standings by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »