Archive for Will Venable

Let’s jump into some fantasy baseball and existential questions from the readers this week. Why should you ask me questions and take my advice? You absolutely shouldn’t; however, I did draft Troy Tulowitzki this year. Just go admire Tulo’s player card right now. We are not worthy. Hopefully the gods of baseball health acquiesce and keep this guy on the field so he can set the all-time WAR record or something insane.

Harry from San Francisco asks, “What happened to Will Venable?  Last year he was a 20/20 guy with a near .800 OPS.  This year, he’s failed to contribute even a single SB or HR to my team.  Do I give up?”

It’s early, obviously, but yes, I’d probably give up on Venable. He’s 31, he’s not getting the bat to the ball enough, the power is missing in action, and it’s not like he’s some horrendous victim of the BABIP gods right now. Also, unless you are in an NL only league, you should be able to upgrade on Venable even if he does get back to where he was last year (.268/.312/.484, 22 dingers, 22 SB). That near-30 percent strikeout rate and .060 ISO would send me running for the hills right now.

Michael from Gloucester, MA asks, “Is Chris Colabello a witch?”

To the best of my knowledge, Colabello is a living, breathing human being with no relation to witches. If nothing else, he’s a mediocre baseball player who I assume you are partial to because he went to college in Worcester which has some of the same letters as Gloucester. Also, if this is the same Michael from Gloucester who I once worked with for a number of very painful years, it’s time for you to get back to our shared cubicle. I miss you. We can fight the post-traumatic stress together by never leaving.

Also, Colabello is probably thinking that if he’s a mediocre baseball player according to this writer, well, this writer is a 20-grade talent. To which I say…I have no comeback there.

Turkelton from Boston, MA and the hit television show Scrubs asks the existentialist, “I’m in a 16-team, points based, head-to-head league. David Wright is currently my starting third baseman. I’m worried that he is going to eventually hit the shelf, so I’d like to ensure that I have a solid backup on the roster. The problem is that third base seems particularly shallow this season. Right now, I’m rostering Mike Olt who has third base eligibility (and a serious prospect pedigree). Olt offers some power upside, but he’s currently hitting a crisp .162/.237/.353. Here are some other options on the waiver wire: your namesake Mark Reynolds, Cody Asche, Lonnie Chisenhall, David Freese (currently on the DL), Donnie Murphy, etc. Should I hold on to Olt and trust his one-time prospect pedigree?”

My shoulder is still messed up from a recent car accident and I have no bat-to-ball skills. Wait, I’m getting my Mark Reynoldses confused here. Just stay away from anyone named Mark Reynolds. Freese gets hurt all the time, Olt and Chisenhall probably don’t play enough, and I honestly don’t even know what in the world Donnie Murphy is. Is he related to Donnie Baseball?

If the Cubs believed in Olt, wouldn’t they have just turned the position over to him for all 162 this year? What do the Cubs have to lose besides another century’s worth of baseball games? Chisenhall would be more deserving of a gamble than Olt, and Asche is probably your best bet because who else are the Phillies going to put there? The Phillies aren’t actually that bad for me. I’d take Chase Utley, Cliff Lee, A.J. Burnett, and a healthy Cole Hamels any day of the week. Okay, the Phillis probably are that bad despite those guys.

Richard from Alameda, CA asks, “Does good pitching beat good hitting?”

Good pitching beats good hitting and good hitting beats good pitching. As John Kenneth Galbraith said, “Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it’s just the opposite.” That written, even a great hitter doesn’t get on base 60 percent of the time. Thus, pitching generally beats hitting whether it’s good, bad, ugly, or indifferent. If I were a GM of something other than a fantasy baseball team, I’d draft position players over pitchers with high picks in most cases because of the high attrition rate of pitching prospects. For instance, I think the Astros blew it drafting Mark Appel last year. I watched Appel pitch in person several times at Stanford, and I never walked away thinking of him as some kind of future ace the way people probably did when they saw Stephen Strasburg dominate in college.

John from Petaluma, CA asks, “Should I regret not playing fantasy baseball this year for the first time ever, really?”

If you have to ask, you probably aren’t missing out too much. Like, if there was anything for you to regret, you’d be feeling it in the deepest recesses of your soul. There are a lot of things in my life that I regret having done or not done. That reminds me of the Taoist proverb, “When nothing is done, nothing is left undone.” I kind of understand that, but I couldn’t explain it for the life of me. I guess it means if you do nothing, there’s nothing…yeah, I don’t know. It’s all about the do-do. Intellectually understanding things isn’t that important, anyway, unless you can somehow apply it towards like right living.

Anyway, I quit baseball during my senior year of high school. I regret that decision. I’d probably be in the big leagues right now if I had kept playing. Okay, I definitely wouldn’t be in the big leagues, but the point here is that regret is something you know you are experiencing, not something you have to question. Fantasy baseball might not be for you anymore and that’s okay. It doesn’t matter either way.

Okay, we’ll leave it there for this week. If you have any fantasy questions you’d like answered in a future mailbag—if there is one—you can leave a comment or tweet at me. In the meantime, I’d strongly advise the acquisition of Troy Tulowitzki. He’ll improve your fantasy team and, if you’re like me, your extremely superficial, shallow, and sometimes low self-esteem.

This is a post about small sample sizes and luck, terms that get tossed around so much these days that we may have lost sight of their meaning. It’s also, I suppose, about Will Venable.

Venable kinda sorta broke out in 2013, which Robert J. Baumann covered earlier this week here. But the player inspired more thoughts, so here we are.

Read the rest of this entry »

It wasn’t as if Shin-Soo Choo was really tearing it up for fantasy owners this season anyway, was he?  After back to back 20-20 seasons with a .300 average, the 28 year old Korean-born outfielder ran into a little trouble this year.  He struggled out of the gate in April and was then arrested on DUI charges at the beginning of May.  The apparent shame perpetuated the sub par play and now here in June, after being hit on the hand  by Giants’ starter Jonathan Sanchez, is on the DL with a broken thumb that will require surgery and will be sidelined for a minimum of six weeks. Read the rest of this entry »

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some outfielders.

Alex Rios
Rios surged early this year, and was one of the most added players. Unfortunately, but predictably, he slowed as the season wore one. A lot of this came down to a bad BABIP, as his power production was fairly consistent.
Crude 2011 Projection: .290/.340, 19 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Keep. You got him for cheap last year, and he’s still worth far more than that.

Curtis Granderson
The extraordinary season that many predicted from Granderson was anything but. He still put up solid numbers across the board, and was a four win player, but most expected better. Will his second year in the pinstripes, his age 30 season, be any better?
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.340, 27 HR, 16 SB
Verdict: Keep. His kind of all-around production is still hard to find.

Shane Victorino
A career year at age 29. Who would have guessed? However, some owners are skeptical, and afraid his batting average will never return to a level close to .300. Plus, you have to wonder if he can put up numbers close to his 2010 campaign.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.345, 15 HR, 28 SB
Verdict: Keep. You won’t be able to let him go and pay the same price for him, so he’s worth holding on to, even if he can’t repeat 2010.

Will Venable
Venable was able to be had for next to nothing this year, thanks to playing for the Padres and his low batting average. With added playing time, Venable turned in a solid fantasy performance this year. If he could cut back on the strikeouts, he could be an outstanding player.
Crude 2011 Projection: .250/.330, 15 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Keep. If you paid more than a couple of bucks for him, you can cut him. Otherwise, he’s worth a roster spot.

Carlos Quentin
You didn’t think he could ever repeat 2008, did you? However, for a power hitter, his strikeout rate is pretty darn good. All he needs to do is stop pressing and hit some more line drives, and Quentin will be golden.
Crude 2011 Projection: .255/.350, 25 HR
Verdict: Cut. If he could hit 30+ homers again, I’d be willing to swallow his poor batting average.

If you have an outfielder you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

Man, moving into an old house is hard. Every little thing opens up into eight million other things you gotta do. Bah. But you don’t want to hear me whine, you want the waiver wire dirt. So here are a coupla outfielders that could do you good. (Yeah, grammar goes out the window when you are this exhausted.)

Tony Gwynn, Jr, Padres (1% owned)
Gwynn is no unqualified get – they rarely are at this stage of ownership – but he does have some things going for him. For one, it looks like he’s the best outfield defender on his team, going by his double-digit career UZR/150 in center compared to Scott Hairston’s single-digit number. He also can take a walk – his current 13.3% walk rate is second on the team in fact. Last, his current BABIP is so low that he figured highly on Goleblahblah’s xBABIP – BABIP list just the other day. A man that fast should not have a .255 BABIP. As the dinks and dunks fall in, he’ll be able to pair a passable batting average with good speed. With contact rates like he has (96.5% in the zone, 91.6% overall), he could even put up a good batting average. Of course, the rub is that he’s in a crowded outfield. Apologies to Oscar Salazar and Luis Durango, though, Gwynn is, at the very least, in the top four. Will Venable has some strikeout issues (that weren’t this bad in the minor leagues), and Aaron Cunnigham is finally showing something in the major leagues (but could take a walk here or there), so along with Hairston, the Pads have cobbled together a passable outfield. Some days, possibly against lefties (Gwynn had a lower OPS versus lefties in the minors), Hairston will play center field. The rest of the time, it will probably be Gwynn out there, so deeper leagues should look to Gwynn for steals.

Domonic Brown, Phillies (2% owned)
Rumors are rumors, but the newest rumors have Jayson Werth headed to Tampa. The Rays don’t seemingly go for Werth’s type usually (read: big-time in-season acquisition), but his contract expires at season’s end, and at $7.5 million is not onerous. For all the talk that Werth is somehow slumping, his slash line (.280/.371/.502) and wOBA (.376) are almost identical to last year’s (.268/.372/.506; .382). He’s not slumping. Yes, his ISO is a little down (.238 to .222), but it’s closer to his career numbers. So Werth is more probably the 2008 Werth than the 2009 Werth, but would anyone complain about a 20/20 outfielder either? Anyway, back to Brown. He was good enough to make our top 50 trade value list (at #50) and was named the number one Phillies prospect by maven Marc Hulet. We’ll allow space for a longer article concerning Brown (he seems to deserve it), but he’s 22, hitting .328/.389/.592 in Double-A and Triple-A combined this year, with speed (86 stolen bases in 416 minor league games at a 72% success rate) and power (.166 career ISO, with a full-season peak of .214). Let’s just call this a wake-up call for those in deeper leagues. There might be a nice prospect on the way.

A star on the diamond and the hard court at Princeton, San Diego Padres outfielder Will Venable has baseball blood lines and a diverse set of skills. Max Venable’s son earned the right field job for the Padres, and he’s showing an unprecedented blend of power and speed. Should he be on fantasy radars? Let’s try to answer that question.

The Padres selected Venable in the seventh round of the 2005 draft, and the 6-2 lefty batter split the summer of ’05 between the Rookie Level Arizona League and the Short-Season Northwest League. Overall, Venable batted .247/.321/.379, with 7.2 percent walk rate, 23.7% K rate and a .132 Isolated Power in 221 plate appearances. He also swiped six bases in seven tries.

Venable spent the 2006 campaign in the Low-A Midwest League, upping his line to .314/.389/.477 in 541 PA. He showed solid secondary skills (10.2 BB%, .163 ISO), lowered his strikeout rate (17.2 K%) and went 18/23 on the base paths, with the caveat being that he was long in the tooth for Low-A at 23 years old. Following the season, Baseball America lauded his “pure left-handed stroke and bat speed,” and predicted more power would flow from his 210 pound frame.

Instead, Venable’s pop evaporated upon making a two-level jump to the Double-A Texas League in 2007. In 572 PA, he posted a .278/.337/.373 triple-slash, with a paltry .095 ISO. Venable didn’t control the zone especially well either, walking 6.6 percent of the time (his whiff rate remained similar to ’06, at 16.3%). He at least thrived when he managed to get on base, with 21 SB in 23 attempts. BA noted that Venable added a toe-tap to his set-up between ’06 and ’07. The toe-tap, they claimed, “took his legs out of his swing.” He eliminated the trigger during the second half of the ’07 season.

In 2008, Venable moved up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and made significant progress. He batted .292/.361/.464 in 464 PA, drawing a walk 8.9 percent with a .172 ISO. The worthwhile trade-off for the extra thump was a higher K rate (23.3 K%). Venable didn’t do much running for the Beavers, with seven steals in 10 tries.

Will got the big league call in late August of ’08, logging 124 PA for the Padres. He hit .264/.339/.391, walking 10.5%, whiffing 19.1% and posting a .127 ISO. He only attempted two steals, getting caught once.

Last year, Venable again split the year between Portland and San Diego. In Triple-A, he authored a .260/.329/.520 line in 226 PA, with his walk and strike out rates barely changing (8.8 BB%, 23 K%). The power output was impressive (.260 ISO). With the Padres, Venable slashed .256/.323/.440 in 324 PA. His strike zone control was rough (7.7 BB%, 30.4 K%), but Venable continued to hit for power with a .184 ISO. He succeeded in six of seven steal attempts.

Heading into 2010, Venable was projected for a .249/.315/.406 line (.318 wOBA) and 7 SB by CHONE and a .249/.309/.385 (.310 wOBA) performance by ZiPS, with 9 SB. The 27-year-old is besting those forecasts so far. In 141 trips to the plate, Venable has a .240/.319/.440 line, with a 10.6% walk rate and a .200 ISO. He’s suddenly running again, too, stealing 12 bases and getting caught once.

Venable’s taking a very aggressive approach at the plate–he has swung at 36.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone this year (25-27% MLB average), up from 30.4% in 2009 and 25% in 2008. His walk rate has remained stable because he’s getting few strikes. Opposing pitchers have put just 44.8 percent of pitches within the zone against Venable (48-51% MLB average), compared to 47.8% in 2009 and 49% in 2008.

Will’s power surge has come at the expense of contact. He’s connecting 72.6% of the time in 2010 (80-81% MLB average), a decline from his 73.5% rate in 2009 and 79.7% mark in 2008. He’s punching out 37.6 percent of the time this season.

While Venable is making hard, loud contact when he puts the bat on the ball, it’s questionable if he can keep up this pace. His batting average on balls in play is .347, which is 20 points above his career average in the majors and bests his .336 minor league BABIP. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .313 BABIP for Venable.

It’s also likely that he’ll hit for less power moving forward. Venable’s minor league track record and work with the Padres from 2008-2010 suggests that he has made a concerted effort to hit with more authority, but a .200 ISO is pushing the upper bounds of what could reasonably be expected. ZiPS forecasts a .148 ISO for the rest of 2010.

Also worth considering: the Padres appear to be shielding Venable from lefty pitching, though he has started against southpaws recently with both Scott Hairston and Kyle Blanks on the DL. Venable didn’t show much a platoon split in the minors, but he has a .282 wOBA against LHP in the majors and a .344 wOBA versus righties. Keep in mind, we’re dealing with a small sample size–140 PA is hardly enough to suggest helplessness against same-side pitching.

With fewer hits falling and Venable hitting for less power, ZiPS calls for a .247/.309/.395 rest-of-season line. I think it’s possible that he bests that modest projection. If he hits around his career mark in the majors (.254/.325/.430, .335 wOBA) and continues to steal bases, Venable is a decent option in NL-only leagues.

Venable is a solid major league hitter–accounting for the constricting confines of Petco, his bat has been 13 percent better than the league average since 2008 (113 wRC+). That being said, placing faith in the Padres’ right fielder continuing his 2010 mashing would be misguided.