Archive for White Sox

Alex Colomé was solid as the White Sox’s closer in 2019, going wire-to-wire in that role. He blew only three of his 33 save opportunities, but because he was short on strikeouts (55 in 61 innings) and had a merely good ERA (2.80) and WHIP (1.07), Colomé finished just 17th among relievers in 5×5 Roto value. Based on ADPs in NFBC drafts so far, that seems to be roughly where fantasy owners expect him to slot in among relievers in 2020. Colomé’s ADP of 160.0 places him 14th among relievers, so if anything, his 2019 performance has fantasy owners expecting a slightly better standing this season.

Many of us are likely to have some trepidation about any closer outside of the top six or so, meaning that Colomé’s ADP is not a sign of fantasy owners’ overwhelming confidence in him. Nonetheless, he is typically getting drafted ahead of Emilio Pagán, Brandon Workman, Hansel Robles, José Leclerc and Archie Bradley, so he is getting some respect. Also, no other White Sox reliever is getting drafted within the top 500 picks overall, as Aaron Bummer’s 586.6 ADP is the next closest. Colomé has engendered enough confidence that he is not viewed like Pagán, whose ADP is only 100 points higher than that of teammate Nick Anderson, or Mark Melancon, who is getting drafted 92 picks on average later than Will Smith, even though he is slated to be the Braves’ closer.
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Edwin Encarnación had been overshadowed by bigger-name free agents throughout the Hot Stove season, but he had the Christmas Day headlines all to himself. That’s when reports emerged of the 36-year-old slugger reaching an agreement with the White Sox on a one-year, $12 million contract with a 2021 team option. There had not been much buzz over the market for Encarnación, possibly because he will turn 37 in January and his main appeal is as a designated hitter. Perhaps he also received less attention because of missing the vast majority of the final two months of the 2019 season due to a fractured right wrist and a strained left oblique.

Despite missing a substantial chunk of the season, Encarnación smashed 34 home runs. This was two more than he hit for the Indians in 2018, and his .287 ISO was his highest ever. Encarnación wasn’t hitting the ball harder — his 94.4 mph exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV FB/LD) was within 0.2 mph of his averages from 2017 and 2018 — but he was hitting it a lot higher. His 22.5 degree average launch angle was more than four degrees higher than any of his previous averages during the Statcast era, and his 50.6 percent flyball rate was a career high.
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The hot stove season is a time of discovery. In responding to the news of trades and signings, and in doing research to prepare our annual preseason rankings, we learn things that we missed during the regular season.

After the Rays traded Tommy Pham to the Padres earlier this month, I wrote about how Pham mysteriously started hitting grounders with less authority one-third of the way into the season. (Also, thank you to commenters randplaty and zwibi, who pointed out that Pham was playing through hand and elbow injuries over several weeks late in the season.) Of 130 hitters who saw at least 1,500 pitches and hit at least 100 ground balls in both 2018 and 2019, Pham experienced the sixth-largest year-to-year decline in average exit velocity on grounders (EV GB), and that was even with his decline not beginning until two months into the season.
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A hitter doesn’t have to be selective in order to produce, but it certainly helps. Alex Bregman, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, George Springer, Marcus Semien and Anthony Rendon were all among the top 10 percent of qualified hitters in terms of O-Swing% this season. In other words, they were among the choosiest hitters, swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone at exceedingly low rates.

Eddie Rosario, Tim Anderson, Javier Báez, Jeff McNeil, Nicholas Castellanos, Eduardo Escobar and Rafael Devers were in the bottom 10 percent for O-Swing%, proving that you can still be valuable in fantasy (and in real, actual baseball) without having even decent plate discipline. Some members of this group are simply good bad-ball hitters. Rosario, McNeil, Escobar and Devers were well above average at making contact with out-of-zone pitches. McNeil also made relatively high-quality contact on those offerings, posting an xwOBA (.314) that was 16 points above the average on out-of-zone pitches for hitters who saw at least 1,000 pitches this season.
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This season, Yoán Moncada narrowly surpassed Kris Bryant as the most valuable Chicago third baseman in 5×5 Roto value. Figuring out whether he is likely to keep the crown in 2020 is not an easy task.

Even though Moncada made 75 fewer plate appearances than Bryant did, as he missed three weeks in August with a strained hamstring, he outearned his North Side counterpart, $18.0 to $17.0. Moncada made up deficits of 25 runs and six homers by driving in two more runs, stealing six more bases and, most important, hitting .315, which gave him a 33-point advantage in batting average. He improved in every category, other than steals, but Moncada’s surge from a .235 batting average in 2018 played the biggest role in catapulting him into the top 10 at third base (he ranked ninth and Bryant ranked 10th).
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Having watched Gerrit Cole breeze through yet another postseason start in Sunday’s Game 5 of the World Series, I wanted to refresh my memory on how dominant he had been in the regular season. My go-to destination for such things is the Plate Discipline leaderboard right here on FanGraphs. This leaderboard tells me a large portion of what I need to know about how pitchers have performed — how well they’re missing bats by swinging strikes (SwStr%) or avoiding swings in the strike zone (Z-Swing%) and how they are limiting walks by throwing first-pitch strikes (F-Strike%) or getting out-of-zone chases (O-Swing%).

I sorted by SwStr%, and Cole was at the top. Unlike many pitchers who get a lot of swings and misses, he had a slightly lower-than-average Z-Swing%, and he was comfortably above-average at throwing first-pitch strikes and getting chases. He had a lot in common with the pitchers who ranked just behind him, but one of the names near the top of the leaderboard caught me off guard. It surprised me enough that I felt the need to tweet it out.
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As Greg Jewett noted in Tuesday’s Bullpen Report, Felipe Vázquez was arrested on Tuesday morning. Subsequent to his arrest on charges of computer pornography, solicitation of a child and providing obscene material to a minor in Florida, the Pirates placed him on the restricted list. Vázquez is also facing charges in Pennsylvania for statutory sexual assault, unlawful contact with a minor, corruption of minors and indecent assault of a person less than 16 years old.

In pitching two scoreless innings to wind up the Nationals’ 6-2 win over the Cardinals on Tuesday night, Daniel Hudson collected his fourth save of the season. It was also the first save for any Nationals reliever since Aug. 16 and the team’s first ninth-inning save situation since Aug. 30. Hudson’s performance snapped a string of six consecutive blown saves by the Nationals’ bullpen. During the time since their last save, the Nationals’ relievers have collectively compiled a 5.49 ERA, which is the third-highest for any team over that period. Hudson (2.61 ERA) is the only Nationals reliever to pitch at least 10 innings over this stretch and post an ERA below 3.50.
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Chasing saves in Colorado could be tenuous, but avoiding Wade Davis for fantasy right now would be advisable. Davis entered a tied game on the road and promptly served up a go-ahead solo home run to Carson Kelly. He rebounded to strikeout Adam Jones then yielded a single to Jarrod Dyson, who stole second moving up on a throwing error to third. Davis also struck out Ketel Marte but a walk to Eduardo Escobar with two outs led to his exit. Jake McGee entered putting gas on the fire giving up a triple to David Peralta with two more earned runs charged to Davis’ ledger. It’s been a tough stretch for Davis allowing runs in five of his last 19 appearances, but he’s given up at least three runs in each of these occasions. Plus, Davis entered with a 0.63 ERA on the road in 14.1 innings prior to this outing which jumps to 2.40 courtesy of the last night’s results. There’s no clarity as to which Rockies reliever will get the next save chance, but:

#Rockies manager Bud Black said he's not ready to anoint the next closer, but expect to see Jairo Diaz and Carlos Esteves get chances to pitch the ninth.

— Patrick Saunders (@psaundersdp) August 19, 2019

If using August as a guide, Carlos Estevez pitched after Jairo Diaz on Saturday when trying to gauge the pecking order. However, Diaz owns the better numbers this month with a robust 13:1 K:BB, 2.16 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 8.1 innings. As for Estevez, his 5:4 K:BB this month in six innings includes a meltdown on the third when he did not retire a batter yielding two hits along with two walks leading to two earned runs. It remains to be seen who Black will turn to, but time will tell. Archie Bradley racked up his fifth save working around a solo home run by Charlie Blackmon preserving Arizona’s win. Bradley’s been scoreless in 16 of his last 18 appearances with a 1.30 ERA over 20.2 innings with 26 strikeouts. Yoan Lopez garners his second win inducing an inning ending double play.

Extra innings before a doubleheader does not bode well for the Angels and Rangers bullpen. Cam Bedrosian suffered his third blown save allowing two runs (one earned) on three hits and a walk with a strikeout. Consecutive singles by Hunter Pence and Rougned Odor tied the game for Texas versus Bedrosian who entered unscored upon in 11 of his previous 12 outings. Hansel Robles navigated 1.1 scoreless innings giving up a hit and a walk with a strikeout. Since June first, he’s recorded a 1.73 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 31.1 innings. Noe Ramirez incurs the loss serving up a walk and two hits in the bottom of the 11th resulting in his second loss. Jose LeClerc survived walking the bases loaded with two outs inducing a pop out to second base by Luis Rengifo. This marks LeClerc’s first three walk game since July 28th. He held on for his fifth straight scoreless contest, but his struggles usually include issuing free passes. Rafael Montero gets his second win logging two innings giving up two hits and two walks in them.

Save number five for Andrew Miller working 1.1 scoreless against the Brewers. Miller opted to work around Christian Yelich in the eighth inning with runners on second and third with two outs getting Mike Moustakas to ground out to second base ending the threat. Returning for the ninth inning, Miller retired all three Milwaukee hitters in a row closing out a win for St. Louis. Miller’s recorded three saves in the second half. This month, he’s allowed more walks (5) than strikeouts (4) registered. No longer a ratio protector, Miller maintains his value with ancillary save chances. Giovanny Gallegos notched his 12th hold with a scoreless inning. He did give up the only hit in the game to Yasmani Grandal, but been scoreless in 13 of 14 appearances in the second half with a 0.51 ERA and 20:5 K:BB over 17.2 innings since the break.

Holding on for his 24th save, Alex Colome yielded three hits leading to an earned run while striking out one in Minnesota. Although Colome owns a 1.37 ERA in save situations this year spanning 26.1 innings, he’s allowed runs in five of his last seven outings. He’s also given up multiple hits in three of these contests resulting in eight runs (three earned) and seven walks with nine strikeouts within this sample. Evan Marshall gets his 11th hold striking out one in a clean eighth inning. Aaron Bummer coughed up a solo home run to Jorge Polanco en route to his 17th hold allowing two hits with a strikeout.

Oakland will be adding some potential upside to its bullpen with A.J. Puk set to be activated prior to Tuesday’s game. Puk features a high-90’s fastball with a plus slider and a change-up in his arsenal. He’s allowed six runs as a reliever at Triple-A in 11 innings with 16 strikeouts against three walks. Puk recorded a 36.4 strikeout percentage while in the Pacific Coast League and could work his way into high leverage spots with a strong start. But, he’s more of a deep league target for fantasy purposes unless he can channel his inner Chris Sale from 2010 cutting his teeth in the majors as a relief pitcher for the White Sox (21 games, 23.1 IP, two wins, four saves, 34.8 strikeout percentage, 1.07 WHIP). Also of interest, Carlos Carrasco made his debut as a reliever with Double-A Akron last night:

Carlos Carrasco finishes off his inning with a strikeout and a roaring ovation. He threw 16 pitches, 9 for strikes.

0 R, 0 H, 1 BB, 1 K pic.twitter.com/FQO2RGMoRF

— Mandy Bell (@MandyBell02) August 20, 2019

Carrasco hit 97, 96, 96 and 96 MPH on the radar gun on his first four pitches returning from his treatments for Leukemia. Rooting hard for Carrasco not only to overcome his fight with leukemia, but to return for high leverage moments with Cleveland. With Brad Hand struggling of late, perhaps Carrasco could reprise the role of Cody Allen with Hand providing the Indians with match-up options late in games. It’s too early to predict, but not out of the realm of possibilities. Reports also indicate the Cubs will activate Steve Cishek before Tuedsay’s game having sent David Bote to Triple-A. This adds much needed length to its bullpen for the stretch run.

Quick Hits: Javy Guerra vultures the win taking over for Joe Ross in Pittsburgh. Guerra tossed 3.2 innings with a strikeout for the Nationals…Save number 22 for Ian Kennedy working around a solo home run to Rio Ruiz in the ninth. It’s his first run allowed since July 23rd snapping a seven game scoreless streak…Kirby Yates held on for his third straight save, and 36th this season. Yates allowed three hits, an earned run and hit a batter with a strikeout. He will get Tuesday off. Those chasing saves hope an Andres Munoz chance lies in the offing…Lucas Sims fired two clean innings for the Reds striking out three. He’s not given up a run in his last five contests (6.1 innings)…Roberto Osuna notched his 28th save yielding a hit with two strikeouts.

Two factors could make this a very intriguing trade deadline. First, with seven teams within seven games of each other in the Wild Card race in the American League along with 11 teams in the National League, the sellers face tough decisions. Second, due to a rule change, the July 31st trade date will be a hard deadline with no waiver transactions in August. So, the onset of the second half will not only dictate which players may be traded, it could change how teams finish within their divisions. Read the rest of this entry »

With July on the horizon and the trade deadline set to take center stage after the All-Star break, bullpen hierarchies will remain fluid. Ahead of all of this, things seem to be intensifying in Cincinnati with Michael Lorenzen receiving the save chance against the Cubs on Friday night. Lorenzen converted his fifth save, and third in a row giving up a hit in 1.2 scoreless innings with two strikeouts. More intriguing, Raisel Iglesias did not make an appearance in this game with the Reds protecting a three-run lead. Momentum and performance tilt to Lorenzen’s favor to the chagrin of Iglesias owners. Read the rest of this entry »