Archive for wade davis

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.

Mark Buehrle – In his last 19 starts, Buehrle has gone 9-3 with a 2.62 ERA. Overall, his ERA is about 0.75 less than his FIP and nearly a full run worse than his xFIP. But Buehrle has out-performed both FIP numbers in seven of the previous nine seasons, so it’s not a huge surprise. The estimators have a tough time with Buehrle because his strikeout rate is so low. But he counters with an excellent walk rate and better than average HR and LOB rates. He has a home start against MIN and he has a 0.39 ERA in three starts against the Twins this year. He’s also got a game at DET and lifetime he has a 3.37 ERA and a 1.179 WHIP in 123 IP at Comerica Park. Keep Buehrle in the lineup this week.

Brett Cecil – The one weakness for Cecil is his gopher ball tendencies. He’s allowed 14 HR in 91.1 IP this year and all 14 HR have come against RHB. This week Cecil squares off against BAL and NYY, with both starts on the road. The Yankees lead the AL with 98 HR at home and the Orioles are tied for third with 82 HR. The Yankees have power up and down the lineup while the Orioles feature three RHB – Hardy, Jones and Reynolds – with over 20 HR apiece. Give Cecil the week off.

Wade Davis – The year started off miserably for Davis as he adopted more of a pitch-to-contact approach which resulted in an inflated ERA. After 18 starts he had a 4.47 ERA and a 4.13 K/9. But in his last five starts, Davis has fanned 28 in 36 IP for a 7.00 K/9 and he has a 3.75 ERA. The Rays are 5-0 in that stretch, although Davis has just one win to show for it. If he can keep up the solid pitching, the wins will come so make sure you have him active this week.

Doug Fister – Last year Fister was a low-end matchup guy, one you could put into the lineup when he had home starts. He had a strong 3.61 ERA and 1.139 WHIP at Safeco but a 5.06 ERA and a 1.551 WHIP in road games. This year he’s been good both at home and on the road. There was concern about how he would do after the trade to Detroit, but in four starts with the Tigers, Fister has produced two strong outings, both at home. This week he has two home starts, with games against the Royals and White Sox, two teams below .500 and who are just middle of the pack versus LH starters. Get Fister active this week.

Hiroki Kuroda – Since coming to this country in 2008, Kuroda has been a very reliable pitcher for both the Dodgers and fantasy owners. Despite strong overall numbers, he’s never been a big asset in Wins and this year was even worse than normal as he had a 6-13 record at the end of July despite a 3.11 ERA. But fortune has smiled upon Kuroda in August, as he has a 4-1 record this month. He has a normal .305 BABIP in August yet has a 2.16 ERA in 33.1 IP. This week he has a home start against SD and a road start in ATL. He has more wins against the Padres (7) than any team in the majors. His start against the Braves is a day game and Kuroda has a 2.58 ERA and a 1.148 WHIP with a 4.0 K/BB rate in day games this season. Make sure he is in the lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 22 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Sabathia, Kershaw, Romero, Marcum, Hellickson, D.Hudson, Scherezer, J. Garcia, Worley, Latos, W. Rodriguez, Hamels, Tomlin, Harrison, Cahill, Lackey, Harden, Lowe, Morton, Vazquez, Bailey, Arroyo, Hochevar, Pelfrey, Guthrie, White, L. Hernandez, Beavan, Wells, Pineiro, Francis, Slowey, Huff, Williams, Ohlendorf, Volstad.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 20 pitchers and how they fared.

Billingsley – Advised to sit. 12 Ks, 3.07 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, 14.2 IP, 5 ER
Burnett – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 12.27 ERA, 2.591 WHIP, 7.1 IP, 10 ER
Gonzalez – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 14 IP, 5 ER
Leake – Advised to start. 10 Ks, 6.75 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 12 IP, 9 ER
Luebke – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, 12 IP, 2 ER

As the 2011 season got under way, Tampa Bay locked up Wade Davis with long-term deal that could potentially keep him in a Rays uniform through 2017 while putting a total of over $36 million in the right-hander’s pockets. So far, Davis has rewarded Tampa’s aggressive move to cost-control his arbitration years and potentially buy out a pair of free agent seasons. In 44 innings pitched, Davis sports a 3.07 ERA that places among the top 20 in the American League.

Davis was, health permitting, supposed to become a prominent piece of Tampa’s starting rotation. On the strength of what Baseball America called “a heavy 93-94 mph fastball with above-average sink” and a “plus” curveball, Davis punched out 8.3 batters per nine frames at the Triple-A level. BA ranked him between number 17 and 34 on its Top 100 prospects list from 2008-2010. Given his stature amongst scouts, Davis’ hot start to the 2011 season makes him appear to be a talented starter converting potential into major league production.

The problem is the current version of Wade Davis pitches nothing like that glowing scouting report. He’s fooling just about no one, while also lacking the fine control and ground ball tendencies to compensate.

Among qualified starters, Davis’ 5.1 swinging strike percentage places ahead of only Brad Penny, Ivan Nova, Kyle McClellan and Dustin Moseley. For reference, the big league average is around 8.5% While Davis’ 6.7% swinging strike rate from 2009-2010 was rather disappointing for a guy touted as a power pitcher, that looks robust compared to this year’s clip. Davis has struck out 10.6% of batters faced this year, down from 17.1% from ’09 to ’10. That explains why his K/9 mark is just 4.09. He K’d around 6.6 per nine from ’09 to 10 (7-7.1 MLB average in recent years).

Davis’ average fastball velocity is down from 92.3 MPH last season to 90 in 2011. While over 40% of Davis’ pitches classified by Pitch F/X as four-seamers were thrown at 93 MPH or higher in 2010, about four percent have reached that velocity this year. Davis suggested to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times that the lack of mid-to-upper 90s gas is at least partially intentional:

Part by design, part by the way he typically builds arm strength into a season, Davis is throwing with less velocity and getting more outs.

“Every year I come in after spring training and I’ve always been a little down, and toward the second half I always pick it up,” Davis said. “And this year’s a little different just because I’m trying to pitch a little more instead of just relying on stuff. My command’s a lot better of the strike zone, I can attack hitters a lot easier being more relaxed.”

Unfortunately for Davis, it’s hard to find much evidence the “pitcher, not a thrower” mantra will pay long-term dividends. He’s certainly getting fewer K’s, with his fastball’s whiff rate down slightly compared to last year and his breaking stuff getting even fewer whiffs (just 2.6% for his curve and 7.2% with his slider; those rates were 5 and 13 percent, respectively, last year, and the MLB averages are 11.6% for the curve and 13.6% for the slider). But his declining punch out rate has come without better control or an uptick in ground ball rate.

His first-pitch strike percentage, which was 58.9 percent from 2009-2010, is a shade under 53% in 2011 (58-59% MLB average). Opposing batters are drawing a walk in 10% of their plate appearances against Davis, compared to 8.6% from ’09-’10. Consequently, he’s issuing about 3.9 walks per nine innings this season after allowing 3.3 free passes per nine in ’09 and ’10 (3.3 MLB average).

Davis was already a flyball-slanted pitcher coming into this year, posting a 39.2 GB% from ’09 to ’10, but he’s getting even fewer worm burners in 2011 (36.3%). So far, all those pitches lifted skyward haven’t been an issue — he has surrendered just two homers. However, Davis has a 2.9% home run per fly ball rate that’s bound to increase. If he had given up homers on fly balls (which isn’t something a pitcher has much control over) at a rate close to the AL average, he’d have a HR/9 mark of 1.2-1.3 instead of his actual 0.41.

While Davis is flirting with a sub-three ERA, his peripherals suggest that he has actually been over 30 percent worse than the average MLB pitcher (134 xFIP-). Maybe you feel that Davis’ .260 BABIP won’t climb quite as much as usual due to Tampa’s skilled fielders, and maybe he won’t have severe home run problems pitching in the power-suppressing Trop. But even so, Davis just isn’t showing the requisite control and earth-scorching style to survive with such a low strikeout rate. Either he’s going to find a way to miss more lumber, or he’s going to get beat with the regression stick.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 12. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Wade Davis – In his last three starts he is 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA. While he has two home starts this week, you might want to bench him until you see some better results.

Gio Gonzalez – Roughed up in his last two starts, both on the road, Gonzalez returns home for two games this week. In Oakland he has a 2.90 ERA in six games. Make sure he is active for games against the Reds and Pirates.

Jamie Moyer – A terrible outing against the Red Sox two starts ago has masked a string of solid pitching by Moyer since early May. Activate him for his two home starts this week.

Jon Niese – Since returning from the disabled list, Niese is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA. He has a tough matchup against Justin Verlander in his first outing but has two home starts, where the Mets are 24-10. Keep him active this week.

Jason Vargas – Not everything has been disappointing this season in Seattle. Vargas has a 2.88 ERA and has hurled a Quality Start in 11 of his last 12 outings. Get him in your lineup for this week’s action against the Cubs and Brewers.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 12 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Verlander, Lincecum, Lester, Kershaw, Oswalt, Hanson, Danks, Dempster, Burnett, J. Garcia, E. Santana, Latos, Leake, Baker, Cecil, A. Sanchez, L. Hernandez, Hunter, Chacin, Talbot, Guthrie, Narveson, Ohlendorf, R. Lopez, Chen.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 10 pitchers and how they fared.

Cueto – Advised to Start. W, 6.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.667 WHIP (2 starts)
E. Jackson – Advised to sit. 4.26 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.895 WHIP (2)
Lewis – Advised to sit. 2 W, 1.80 ERA, 15 Ks, 0.753 WHIP (2)
Matsuzaka – Advised to start. W, 0.00 ERA, 5 Ks, 0.750 WHIP (1)
Slowey – Advised to start. W, 3.86 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.143 WHIP (2)

The Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in baseball at 32-13 and not surprisingly are receiving strong pitching performances from all five guys in their rotation. Here are the fantasy numbers for the Rays’ SP:

Those numbers look very good, but let’s examine two other numbers for each pitcher.

The Rays’ staff goes from being excellent to being less impressive after Shields when we look at these other numbers. Davis goes from a very strong #5 pitcher to one who looks more league average. Out of 51 qualified pitchers in the American League, Davis ranks 47th in K/BB and 46th in xFIP. And in his last four starts, Davis has gone 1-3 with a 5.75 ERA. He has 11 BB and 12 Ks in 20.1 IP and has allowed 4 HR in that span.

Normally, the conclusion might be that Davis is just hitting a rough patch and that he should be given a chance to straighten things out. Especially given his status as a former top prospect and a player who is just 24-years old and holding his own in the toughest division in baseball.

But complicating matters for the Rays is the presence of another top prospect in Triple-A who is having great success in Durham. Jeremy Hellickson, rated the Rays’ number-two prospect by our own Marc Hulet prior to the season, is pitching lights-out in the International League this year. Hellickson is 7-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 10 starts this year.

Hellickson has 12 BB and 60 Ks in 58 IP and has allowed just 2 HR. Monday night ne pitched eight scoreless innings against Pawtucket and allowed just one hit. It really is not much of a surprise that Hellickson is doing well in Triple-A. He got a mid-season promotion to Durham last year and went 6-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 9 starts there in 2009.

In parts of two seasons at Triple-A, Hellickson is 13-3 with a 2.65 ERA. He has allowed 27 BB and notched 130 Ks in 115.1 IP. The only less than glowing marker is his ground ball rate. Minor League Splits shows him with a 31.5 GB% (not counting his start against PAW) this season. However, that might be a sample size issue, as he has a 43.5 GB% in his minor league career and had a 44.2 percent mark in Durham last year.

Listed as 6’1 by MiLB, Hellickson does not have intimidating size. Minor league prospect maven John Sickels compared him to Roy Oswalt in this regard prior to this season. Oswalt came up at age 23, spent eight games in the bullpen, moved into the starting rotation in June and ended up with a 14-3 record his rookie year.

It would not be surprising to see Hellickson on a similar path, even if he does not come close to duplicating Oswalt’s W-L record. He has little left to prove in Triple-A and Hellickson has received in-season promotions in both 2008 and 2009. The big question is how long the Rays can remain patient with Davis. A 5.5 game lead in the division makes it easier to allow Davis to go out and pitch every five days without looking over his shoulder.

Still, do not be surprised if Hellickson gets a promotion soon. The Rays waited until September to promote Davis last year, but he did not dominate at Durham like Hellickson. Davis posted a 7.94 K/9 and a 3.40 BB/9 at Durham in 2009. Hellickson’s numbers are 9.31 and 1.86, respectively, this year. Like Oswalt, the Rays could call up Hellickson to begin his major league career in the bullpen with the idea of moving him into the rotation when needed.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Four.

Mark Buehrle – He has allowed six runs in back-to-back outings and his K/9 rate has dipped to 3.86, the worst mark of his career. His walk rate is the highest it has been since his rookie season. Buehrle has been unlucky with his strand rate, but that has been cancelled out by a low HR rate. And to make matters worse, the White Sox offense is 12th in the league in runs, averaging just 3.69 per game. Sit Buehrle this week for his road starts in Texas and New York.

Wade Davis – After struggling in his first outing against the Yankees, Davis has put up back-to-back strong outings. Still, his peripherals are all over the map, with a terrible walk rate (5.82), a low BABIP (.205) and an elevated HR rate (18.2). Davis is lucky to have a 2.65 ERA. But I think the walks will come down and the other rates will stabilize, making Davis a good option to put in the lineup this week, especially with two home starts.

Zach Duke – The Pirates scored a combined 17 runs in Duke’s first two starts, helping him get out to a 2-0 record. But Duke is doing worse than his usual poor marks in strikeouts, while both his BB and HR allowed are up. It all makes for a 4.88 xFIP and a 5.91 FIP. With two road games this week, put Duke on your bench this week if at all possible.

Derek Lowe – The troubles that began in the second half of 2009 have carried over into this year for Lowe. He has managed 3 W despite a 5.24 ERA thanks to three outing where the offense put up 7 or more runs for him. But outside of wins, Lowe has been a very poor fantasy pitcher this year. On top of that he has to pitch this week in St. Louis, where he is 1-6 lifetime, including 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in the latest version of Busch Stadium. Get him out of your starting lineup this week.

Randy Wolf – A trip to Pittsburgh proved to be the perfect tonic for Wolf, who posted his first strong start of the season in his last outing. Still, after four games, his overall numbers are pretty much where you would expect them to be. He faces two below-average teams in runs scored this week in the Pirates and Padres. While I generally do not like pitchers immediately facing a team they just dominated, this week feels like an exception. Make sure Wolf is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Four are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, F. Hernandez, Weaver, J. Johnson, Beckett, Carpenter, Haren, Gallardo, Greinke, Liriano, Sanchez, Hudson, Hughes, Jackson, Kuroda, Sheets, Marcum, Wilson, Millwood, Harang, Silva, Latos, Eveland, Padilla, Bonderman, Norris, Lohse, Garland, Huff, Lannan, Gorzelanny, Perez, Hammel, Harrison, Snell, Davies, McCutchen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Two pitchers and how they fared.

Maine – Recommended to sit. 8 Ks, 13.28 ERA, 2.50 WHIP (2 starts).
Pavano – Recommended to start. W, 6 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Recommended to sit. W, 13 Ks, 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP (2)
C. Young – Recommended to start. DNP
Zito – Recommended to start. W, 4 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP (2)

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays (owned in 17% of Yahoo! leagues)

Before the start of the season, Fans projected Davis to notch 11 Wins, a 3.93 ERA and 149 Ks. Last year John Lackey had 11 Wins, a 3.83 ERA and 139 Ks, and that was good enough to earn him a 5-year, $82.5 million contract and a 93% roster rate in Yahoo!

Davis got off to a rough start, as he allowed 7 H and 4 ER in 6 IP against the Yankees in his 2010 season debut. But his velocity was good, his mix of pitches was very similar to last season and his batted ball profile was right in line with his 2009 results, too. The one thing that stands out was that Davis had 4 BB and 3 Ks. Last year he had a 2.77 K/BB ratio. But it was the Yankees he was facing, a team known for its plate discipline.

The three previous years, Davis has earned a mid-season promotion each year. In 2007, he split time between Hi-A and Double-A. In 2008 it was Double-A and Triple-A while last year it was Triple-A and the majors. Davis was 16-9 with a 3.55 ERA in Double-A and 14-10 with a 3.23 ERA in Triple-A.

This is one of the top young pitchers in the game. Do not let one disappointing start against the Yankees cloud what he has done the past two years and what everyone projected him to do coming into the season. Davis remains a pitcher who should give a league average ERA with the chance to hit double-digit Wins and a K/9 rate around 7.

Jason Hammel, Colorado Rockies (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

Crowded out in Tampa Bay, Hammel was picked up by the Rockies last year in exchange for Aneury Rodriguez and turned in a 10-win season. The key for Hammel last year was that he had a sparkling 3.17 K/BB ratio, which tied with Johan Santana for the 23rd-best mark in baseball. This led to a FIP (3.71) and an xFIP (3.81) lower than his ERA (4.33), even with a below-average HR/FB rate.

Can Hammel keep his BB/9 rate near last year’s 2.14 mark? Probably not, but Hammel showed good control in the minors, with a lifetime 2.8 BB/9 in six seasons, so his command should still be an asset. Along with his command, Hammel gets a decent number of ground balls and has a 6.38 K/9 lifetime in the majors.

At the very least, Hammel is a guy to target for his road starts. Last year he had a 5.73 ERA in Coors and a 3.13 ERA on the road. He allowed 12 HR at home and only 5 on the road. His first start in 2010 came at home, where he allowed 4 ER in 7 IP for a 5.14 ERA.

Chris Snyder, Arizona Diamondbacks (owned in 3 % of Yahoo! leagues)

The mad dash should be on to acquire Snyder, who takes over for the injured Miguel Montero as the starting catcher. Snyder has some injury problems of his own, after undergoing back surgery last year. But when healthy, Snyder offers the promise of good power from the catching position. He hit 13 HR in 326 ABs in 2007 and 16 HR in 334 ABs in 2008.

Unfortunately, along with that power comes some low AVG. He has a lifetime .234 mark in the majors. And as you might imagine, Snyder offers nothing in terms of SB, as he has yet to record his first steal. But with the starting job his for at least the next month, Snyder immediately becomes an attractive option. Montero has a torn meniscus, which has a recovery time of at least four weeks. And if they find ligament damage when he undergoes surgery, he could miss the remainder of the season.

Let’s take a look at our third group of fifteen starters, the SP3 tier. Predictably, by the time you are looking at your third or fourth fantasy pitcher, the candidates begin to thin out and the valuations of the players vary wildly. Consider that this tier goes all the way from Matt Garza (119.67 ADP) down to Wade Davis (306.98). One is a pitcher on the rise with plenty of reasons to for a fantasy manager to get excited, and the other is a youngster just battling for a spot on the roster. Let’s focus on two pitchers that stretch the range and might provide good return on your investment.

Scott Baker (148.34 ADP) is currently a relatively cheap pitcher, going in about the twelfth round of a twelve-team mixed league. You can denigrate his lack of strikeouts (6.88 K/9 career), but there are plenty of other things to like about this young man. Take his walk rate (2.05 BB/9 career), for example. It’s been virtually identical over the past two years, even (2.19 in 2008, 2.16 in 2009), so he’s got that going for him. If you’re looking for flaws, he’s certainly a fly ball pitcher (33.7% GB, 45.4% FB career) and he’s had troubles with the home run (see last year’s 1.26 HR/9) that have inflated his ERA from time to time. Those that follow the Twins might have heard this record before (see: Kevin Slowey).

It’s a little worrisome that he’s moving to a new park, but at least one person thinks will play as a pitcher’s park (AL Petco!). Either way, if the park plays at all similarly to the Mall of America Field, which played between a 1.11 and .896 park factor for home runs over the past three years, he should actually be in for some regression in the home run department. That regression could even get him back to his excellent 2008 levels. (A note: all but nine parks played within that range last year, so it’s likely that Target Field will, too. Also, climate and altitude, not explicitly covered in the above study, are a big part of how a park plays. Those should be similar in the new park.) He still limits walks, he still has a good fastball/slider combo, and he’s still getting batters to reach on 30+% of his pitches outside the zone. The possibility of a high-threes ERA and low 1.2s WHIP is worth a 12th round pick.

It’s not often that a pitcher improves his underlying statistics and loses ground in his more visible numbers, but Gavin Floyd (185.06) pulled off that feat from 2008 to 2009. Here is the full list of component statistics that Floyd improved: strikeout rate, walk rate, home runs per nine, ground ball rate, fly ball rate, O-Swing rate, and contact rate. You got that? And yet somehow, his ERA went up to 4.06 from 3.84 – mostly because his BABIP normalized (from .268 in 2008 to .292 last year). Since his ‘luck’ stats were about where they should have been last year, most of the projection systems say that Floyd will repeat his year, perhaps with a little ERA inflation due to the difference between last year’s nice home run rate (.98 HR/9) and his career number in that category (1.37).

Here’s one thing, though: Floyd has not yet figured out the optimal mix of his pitches. His fastball is not a great pitch (-46.3 runs for his career), and so he’s using it less (47.8% last year, down from 66.7% in 2006). For the last three years, the pitch has begun to find a niche around the scratch level (-4.9 runs last year), and his other pitches have zoomed forward in productivity as he has relied on them. His slider (+7.5 runs) and curveball (+14.1 runs) both hit career highs last year. Even though Floyd threw his fastball ninth-least in the majors last year, he could throw it less (!) since he once threw his curveball regularly over 20% of the time before settling in around 18%. The point isn’t to say that Floyd will throw the fastball less and the curveball more and succeed – the point is that he’s a pitcher available in the fifteenth round that has a floor around the low fours in ERA, should put up a WHIP lower than 1.3, and is not finished figuring out the optimal mix of his pitches. There’s value there, no?

With the Red Sox and Yankees recently adding big names to their respective rotations other guys like Wade Davis tend to slip under the radar. Davis doesn’t have the name recognition of a John Lackey, Javy Vazquez, or even David Price but he’s pretty darn good. The Rays were confident enough in his abilities to have him take over for Scott Kazmir in the rotation after they traded Kazmir to the Angels.

Davis shined during his first six starts at the big league level. He had strong peripherals (8.92 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9) which led to a 2.90 FIP. This suggests that his 3.72 ERA should have been better though his September 12 performance against the Red Sox (2.2 IP 8 ER) helps explain the bloated ERA. More good news from his big league line: His 62.5% strand rate looks a bit light and his .318 BABIP should be expected to regress.

I was fortunate enough to take in a few of Davis’ starts this past summer and came away impressed each time. During my Baseball America days one of my former colleagues and I closely charted Davis and the opposing pitcher. His broad shouldered build is impressive and he knows how to dial it up with his fastball. Davis’ curveball is a true plus pitch and has filthy break.

The Rays have a lot of rotation depth like the Yankees and Red Sox. But the Rays have younger depth that is spilling into the minor leagues and sparkling on the top prospect lists. As of today the Rays figure to open the season with a tentative rotation of James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price, and Wade Davis. Davis’ sparkling 2009 MLB debut should give the 24 year-old the upper hand for the last rotation spot. He’s slowly but steadily progressed through the Rays system and has no significant injury history. He’s also proven to be a workhorse during his minor league tenure. Here are his combined inning totals the past few seasons:

2009: 195
2008: 161
2007: 158
2006: 146

Davis has seen his inning totals increase every season and he’s had success at every level. He’s ready to be cut loose at the big league level and the Rays should be confident in his ability to provide 180+ innings at the big league level. While there may not be immediate pressure on Davis if he’s the teams fifth starter he better try avoiding any early big season slumps.

Andrew Friedman knows each win really counts in the American League East and if Davis struggles (his weaker points can be his command and consistency of his slider and change up) they have a few appetizing options that could slot in easily for him. Jeremy Hellickson (known for his lethal change up) is going to be pounding on the door at Triple-A Durham where he tore through hitters to wrap up his 2009 season with a 2.66 FIP in nine starts. And Andy Sonnastine is going to be hungry for another opportunity after an embarrassing 2009 showing (5.45 FIP in 100 IP) at the big league level although he showed signs of life (3.37 FIP in nine starts) after a demotion to Durham. Jake McGee cannot be forgotten as he’ll begin his first full season back from Tommy John surgery after tossing 30 innings (mostly in Double-A) during his recovery year. McGee could rocket through the system if he finds his pre-injury stuff.

I like Davis’ chances of nabbing 10-15 wins with an ERA south of 4.00 next season with the Rays. His home run per nine rate will rise from his 0.50 big league marker but Davis’ plus fastball and curve will allow his to earn plenty of strikeouts. A big key to Davis’ game will be his ability to harness his command and if he has it big league hitters better watch out because this guys going to be here to stay.

Davis has flown under the radar and closely monitor him when pitchers and catchers report in February. He has big upside and can be had later during your drafts especially with all the attention New York and Boston’s rotations are receiving.

Sunday is the last scheduled day of the regular season and congratulations if you are still in contention for a money spot and can pick up a guy going in Game 162. Here are the pitchers going Sunday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Jeff Karstens (1%) – Has a road start in Cincinnati against Bailey. Had his longest outing since 6/5 when he went 5 IP, gave up 2 ER and picked up the win 9/30 versus the Cubs. However, he fanned only one. For the season Karstens has a 4.26 K/9 but has just 2 Ks in his last five outings, covering 10.2 IP.

Homer Bailey (49%) – Has a home start versus Karstens and the Pirates. In his last eight games he is 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 46 Ks in 52.1 IP. Bailey is 4-2 with a 4.52 ERA in the Great American Ball Park this year and is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three games versus Pittsburgh.

Wilton Lopez (1%) – Has a road start in New York against Figueroa. In his first start of the season Lopez allowed 5 ER in 3.2 IP against the Phillies and saw his ERA rise to 9.42 for the season.

Nelson Figueroa (6%) – Has a home start versus Lopez and the Astros. Figueroa lost his fifth straight game in his last outing but deserved a better fate. as he allowed 2 ER in 6 IP and had 5 Ks. It was his second straight loss with a Quality Start. Figueroa is 1-4 with a 5.74 ERA this season in Citi Field. He has yet to face the Astros this season.

J.D. Martin (3%) – Has a road start in Atlanta against Hudson. In his last start, Martin allowed 3 ER in 6 IP but got a no-decision. He is 3-1 with a 4.62 ERA in his last seven starts. Martin is 4-2 with a 3.78 ERA in road games this season but he has yet to face the Braves in 2009.

Jeremy Guthrie (28%) – Has a home start versus Romero and the Blue Jays. Despite pitching a Quality Start (7 IP, 3 ER) in his last outing, Guthrie dropped his fourth straight decision. This year he is 5-8 with a 4.74 ERA at Camden Yards. Guthrie is 1-2 with a 4.09 ERA in three games against Toronto this season.

Tomo Ohka (0%) – Has a road start in Boston against Buchholz. Ohka pitches for the first time since 9/19 and makes his first start since 7/18. He is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA in 28.2 road innings this year. Ohka has not pitched against the Red Sox in 2009.

Wade Davis (36%) – Has a home start versus Barnett and the Yankees. Davis picked up his second win of the season in his last outing, when he hurled 7 IP and gave up 1 ER versus the Orioles. He has a 1.83 ERA in 19.2 IP at Tropicana Field this year but Davis has yet to face New York.

Luke Hochevar (24%) – Has a road start in Minnesota against Pavano. In his last six games, Hochevar is 1-5 with an 8.47 ERA. He is 3-7 with a 7.53 ERA in road starts this year. However, in two starts versus the Twins, Hochevar is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA.

Jeff Suppan (9%) – Has a road start in St. Louis against Pineiro. In his last five starts, Suppan is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA. He is 4-4 with a 4.20 ERA in road starts in 2009. Suppan is 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA in four games against the Cardinals this season.

Doug Davis (49%) – Has a road start in Chicago against Dempster. In his last eight games, Davis is 1-4 with a 6.20 ERA, with 24 BB and 8 HR in 45 IP. He is 3-7 with a 4.58 ERA in road games this year. Earlier this season, Davis pitched seven socreless innings against the Cubs, fanned seven and picked up the win.

Gio Gonzalez (28%) – Has a home start versus Saunders and the Angels. In his last nine starts, Gonzalez is 2-5 with a 5.94 ERA but with 54 Ks in 47 IP. He is 2-5 with a 6.75 ERA this season at McAfee Coliseum. Gonzalez 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts against the Angels.

Cesar Ramos (0%) – Has a home start versus Sanchez and the Giants. Made his first start in the majors 9/29 against the Dodgers and went 5 IP with 1 ER but got a no-decision. Ramos hit 94 with his fastball versus Los Angeles.

Vicente Padilla (32%) – Has a home start versus Marquis and the Rockies. Padilla returns to the rotation after making a relief appearance 9/30 versus the Padres. In seven games since joining the Dodgers, he is 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA with 28 Ks in 34.1 IP. Padilla has a 4.35 ERA in two games this year in Dodger Stadium and is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA this season against Colorado.

Here on Tuesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Tuesday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Carlos Torres (2%) – Has road start in Cleveland against Masterson. Torres has pitched in six games for the White Sox and made four starts this year. Had a home start 8/8 versus the Indians and allowed 4 ER in 3.1 IP. His repertoire includes a fastball, cutter and curve. Torres offers some strikeouts possibilities with a 7.59 K/9 in the majors following a 9.14 mark this year in Triple-A.

Justin Masterson (34%) – Home against Torres and the White Sox. Has made nine starts for the Indians and allowed four or more earned runs in five of them. Masterson’s longest outing of the season is 6.1 innings. Has one appearance versus Chicago this season, his first start for Cleveland, in which he went four innings, gave up one run and fanned four on 8/8.

Anthony Lerew (0%) – Has road start in New York versus Burnett. Lerew was 10-6 with a 4.09 ERA in the Double-A Texas League this year with 101 Ks in 152 IP. In his only start in the majors, he gave up four runs (two earned) in 4.2 IP versus the Red Sox. Lerew had a 30.7 percent fly ball rate in the minors but gave up four ground balls and 11 fly balls in his start against Boston.

J.D. Martin (3%) – Has a home start against Pelfrey and the Mets. Is 1-1 versus New York this season, including a win on 9/18 when he gave up two runs and fanned three in 5.1 IP. Martin is 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.611 WHIP in seven home games this season.

Wilton Lopez (0%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia against Happ. See Sunday’s two-start pitcher update for more on Lopez.

Brian Duensing (38%) – Has a road start versus Verlander in Detroit. Duensing has won five straight decisions since moving into the rotation, posting a 1.88 ERA in the seven-game stretch. He is 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA in 30.2 road innings this season. In three games (one start) against the Tigers, Duensing is 1-0 with a 0.61 ERA and has 8 Ks in 14.2 IP.

Jeremy Guthrie (27%) – Has a road start versus Davis and the Rays. Guthrie has lost three straight decisions and has a 6.38 ERA in that span. He is 5-8 with a 5.48 ERA in road games this year. Guthrie is 1-0 versus the Rays this season. He pitched six scoreless innings against Tampa in a home start on 4/11.

Wade Davis (35%) – Faces Guthrie and the Orioles at home. See Friday’s two-start pitcher article for more on Guthrie.

Homer Bailey (47%) – Has a home start versus Pineiro and the Cardinals. In his last seven starts, Bailey is 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA. He has a 1.288 WHIP and a 7.3 K/9 mark in home games this year. Bailey is 0-1 with a 4.99 ERA in two games against St. Louis this year.

Kevin Hart (3%) – Has a road start versus Dempster and the Cubs. Hart has picked up a loss in six straight games. He has a 7.31 ERA in that stretch, with 18 BB and 21 Ks in 32 IP. Hart started the year with Chicago and went to Pittsburgh in the Gorzellany/Grabow deal.

Chris Narveson (5%) – Has a road start in Colorado against Marquis. Narveson has appeared in 19 games for the Brewers and moved into the rotation three games ago. In his last outing he picked up the win, as he allowed one run in 5.2 IP and notched 10 Ks in a home game against the Cubs.

Cesar Ramos (0%) – Has a home start against Billingsley and the Dodgers. Ramos went a combined 6-7 with a 3.56 ERA among three stops in the minors this season. In three games in relief with the Padres, Ramos has 5 Ks in 5.1 IP. The lefty averages 91.8 with his fastball and also throws a slider, curve and change.

Trevor Cahill (39%) – Has a road game versus Hernandez and the Mariners. Cahill has won four straight decisions and in his last seven games he has a 2.43 ERA and a 1.131 WHIP. He is 3-5 with a 4.66 ERA in road games this season. Cahill is 0-2 with a 1.99 ERA in three games against Seattle this year.

Doug Davis (49%) – Has a road start against Sanchez and the Giants. Since the All-Star break, Davis is 4-4 with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.580 WHIP. He is 3-6 with a 4.39 ERA in road starts this season. Against the Giants, Davis is 2-2 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.545 WHIP.