Archive for ty wigginton

We are entering year two of the post-Albert era in St. Louis and after an 88-win season that resulted in a wild card berth and a trip to the NLCS that fell just one win short of a World Series appearance, the Cardinals are returning with a largely unchanged infield configuration. For better or for worse, the St. Louis brass opted to leave things as is and let other teams play the free agent market this season. The “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” philosophy is in play here and for fantasy purposes, it’s not bad, but the upside is just as limited now as it was just a year ago. Read the rest of this entry »

When it gets down to the final few rounds of your draft or those last couple of auction dollars, you need to make some smart decisions.  Keeper league owners usually drift towards the minor league hopefuls that could make an impact either this year or next, but for re-draft leagues, it’s about winning now.  Sure, you could take a chance on a prospect and hope to get a second half call-up, but obviously there are no guarantees and the player could be waiver fodder by mid-season, rendering the pick a waste.  You might be better served sifting through some of the major league rosters and finding yourself a couple of utility players who could realistically end up with extra playing time.  It happens almost every year, and the value that some of these guys produce by year’s end could be the difference between a championship squad and an “also-ran”.

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Ty Wigginton has hit 117 home runs the last six seasons combined. No kidding.

For someone who has hit 20 or more home runs in four of his last six years, Wigginton doesn’t get a whole lot of respect in fantasy baseball circles. Why? Perhaps because he’s rarely had a defined role other than “super-utility.” Wigginton, 34, has played all over the diamond in his career (those 13 innings at shortstop in 2009 were no doubt a boon to many) but for fantasy baseball purposes, it’s difficult to rely on consistent at-bats from him (even though he gets pretty consistent at-bats). But he now takes his act to Philadelphia, where that stigma only worsens.

Wigginton will qualify at first base, third base, and outfield in almost all formats and manager Charlie Manuel has indicated that Wigginton will be used mostly at the corner infield positions. At last check, those corner positions are currently occupied by Placido Polanco and Ryan Howard. So how will this play out for Wigginton?

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With players like Dan Uggla and Chone Figgins stinking up the joint and others like Brian Roberts and Mark Ellis banged up, there is a dire need to patch up some roster holes at both second base and the middle infield position.  Sometimes, though, filling in the holes can be rough.  When you’re fishing near the bottom of the waiver wire barrel, the production expectations are usually pretty low, however, here are a pair of guys who just might exceed your expectations. Read the rest of this entry »

Third Base has been a scramble for most owners this season. The position has been riddled with injury and ineffectiveness all season long and it has sent many owners to their respective waiver wires for help. Below I’d like to quickly highlight some guys who have returned from fantasy irrelevancy in part because of their recent production and in part because of just how God-awful the position has been thus far. In deeper leagues, they’re probably already on a roster, but their ownership rates right now suggest that there are plenty of teams that might need their services.

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There has been some fairly creative positioning going on over the last couple of weeks, and while all of the players mentioned here are probably more useful in deep and/or league-specific formats, you might want to keep an eye on their roles going forward. If you’re particularly thin at any given position or trying to weather an injury (or prepare for one), being a position eligibility maven can sometimes patch holes until you find a better solution.

Ty Wigginton

Ian Stewart being dinged up early, Jose Lopez generally sucking, having a fairly diverse defensive skill set, and playing in Colorado makes Wigginton’s future rather intriguing. He may add OF to his eligibility soon giving him 1b, 2b, 3b, and OF eligibility, which, given limited roster space, makes him awfully useful.

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I’ve done a fair amount of reading on third base rankings headed into the 2011 fantasy baseball season. While most prognosticators and enthusiasts recognize some elite talent at the tippy-top of the list, references such as “terrifying,” “black hole,” and, ahem, “talentless batch of hackers” have described the rest of the list, which I might venture to simply call not terribly deep. Third base will present many managers with a challenge, but I’m not so sure there aren’t some gems to be had in this list.

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Some people are still fighting in their finals, or trying to squeeze some life out of their last few at-bats, so we’ll do a few last waiver wires. This one is themed by statistical profiles!

Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / Stolen Bases / Runs
There’s no way we can talk about batting average right now and not talk about Mike Aviles (38% owned). Yes, we profiled him just last week, but he’s found that patented Aviles magic once again – his .358 batting average in September is nice. In stretches like this, his low walk rate is a boon: he’s had more at-bats in which to put up those hits, and four multi-hit games in the past week shows it’s working right now. He doesn’t steal many bases, though, so you could also give Cliff Pennington (10% owned) a look in Oakland – he’s getting on base right now and stealing bases to boot. He’s had a nice year, and if he could cut that strikeout rate just a smidgen (19.3% this year, 19.9% career), he might be able to push that batting average up a few points. Franklin Gutierrez is walking a little more in September (5 walks) than he has since his freakish May (20 walks), is playing in a nice park in Texas the next few weeks (against a catcher core that gives up a 67% success rate on stolen bases), and has five stolen bases in his past two weeks. He’s a good shallow league option (26% owned). Ryan Kalish (3% owned) also deserves a mention as the Red Sox fall out of contention, but he’s not quite playing every day, isn’t walking enough just yet (5.6%) and is also batting low in the lineup when he’s in. Finally, deeper leaguers have to look the way of Peter Bourjos (1% owned) for speed and speed alone. He’s still playing most days and he’s swiped four bags in the past two weeks. Beyond improving poor plate discipline stats (3.6% walk rate, 22.4% strikeout rate), Bourjos could also use some regression to the mean in his BABIP (.231). At least he’s gotten on base in five of his last 13 plate appearances and his excellent defense (+36.1 UZR/150!).

Slugging Percentage / Home Runs / RBI
Now we’re looking for boppers. Ty Wigginton (54% owned) is a nice power pickup because he’s playing well and is eligible all over the diamond. The Orioles’ infielder has been wiggin’ out a little at the plate – his strikeout rate climbed almost 7% from last year – but his power is back in line with career norms (.173 ISO, .180 career) and he finishes the year at home, where he has a decent .269/.318/.455 line. He has struggled a little out of the gate, but Pedro Alvarez (19% owned) has been much better in September (.292/.354/.562) and could be your lightning in a bottle – which is, let’s face it, what you are looking for in the final week. The reason we can be excited about this final stretch is that Alvarez has been struggling with the whiff all year (34.9%) but has really cut down on those Ks this month (24.7%), and with nice power already (.200 ISO) and more on the way (.251 ISO in minor leagues), that lower strikeout rate will play just fine. We’ve given Michael Morse (9% owned) a lot of love recently for his power, but he deserves another shout-out here. John Bowker (1% owned) and Lucas Duda (0% owned) are both available in most leagues and could run into some home runs this week as their teams look to next year. Bowker might be the better bet – he’s in his peak years at 27 years old, and has all that minor league promise yet to be tapped into (.198 career minor league ISO, up to .264 over his final two stops). On the other hand, the Bucs draw decent pitching staffs in Florida and St. Louis while the Mets face Milwaukee and Washington over the final week.

It’s been almost six weeks since we updated the rankings for second basemen. Oh, in those hallowed days of yore – six weeks hence I lived in New York City, my commute was filled with tourists and teenagers, six-packs cost $12 and every once in a while human feces was something I had to watch out for. Greatest city in the world. On to the second basemen, with to-date wOBA and ZiPs RoS wOBAs included for your pleasure.

The Top Targets:
Robinson Cano, New York AL (.403 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Kinsler, Texas (.359 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.381 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.349 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Not much to report here, other than perhaps the fact that some would want Cano in his own tier with Utley and Pedroia down and Kinsler showing much less power than he has in the past. It’s not an unreasonable position. However, the other three guys still have 20/20 type skills, and with Cano’s lack of speed, it makes sense to create this tier.

Strong Secondary Options
Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.375 wOBA, .360 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.379 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.345 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Johnson is enjoying the best power production of his career, and his home park might just have a little to do with it. Just look at his home slugging percentage (.605) compared to his road number (.380). It still evens out to an effective second baseman either way. Zobrist is stealing enough bases and showing just enough power to be useful even in this less-exciting version. He could be a mascot for the tier – a little ugly, but getting the job done.

Will They Ever Get it Together This Year:
Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .406 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Chone Figgins, Seattle (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.292 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Of course the question with Utley is one of health. The latest reports say the splint is off and he hopes to be back before the end of the month, meaning that he could be a sneaky acquisition for a manager looking for a late boost. In head-to-head leagues in particular, Utley is intriguing as a strong addition for a contending team stocking up for the fantasy playoffs. Since the break, Figgins has been hitting .300 and striking out less, so it’s possible the old Figgins is back and we just didn’t notice. Kinda makes him either over-rated or a buy-low candidate depending on how you parse that statement. There’s a whole lot of rust and a really small sample size for Roberts, so he makes the riskiest buy low of the trio.

Pick ‘Em:
Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .348 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Martin Prado, Atlanta (.364 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ian Stewart, Colorado (.348 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.335 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ryan Theriot, Los Angeles (.290 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.339 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.330 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is a pick ’em tier not because they all have the exact same value. In many leagues, these guys are free agents and their value is close to nil. Of course, deeper league owners are happy to have many of them. It’s the fact that each offers production in a category or two that makes them pick ’ems. Need a little bit of pop? Try Wigginton or Uribe if Stewart is not available. Need some speed? It could be worse than The Riot. Need some batting average help? Polanco can help while Prado is out. The flaws are all there, too, though.

Upside to Join the Top:
Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.296 wOBA, .331 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Aaron Hill, Toronto (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.317 wOBA, .326 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Desmond, Washington (.302 wOBA, .321 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Technically, this group still has the upside to move upwards. They’ve all had some poor batted ball luck – Hill of course the most extreme (.204 BABIP) – and the regressions to their means might give for a nice stretch or two in the final seven weeks. On the other hand, their flaws are also fairly impressive at this point. Hill hits everything in the air to his detriment (52.1% flyballs, 13.2% popups), Desmond reaches a little too often (34.1%, 17.5% more than average) and could make more contact (79.1%, 2.3% below average), and Kendrick still doesn’t have the power (.141 ISO) or the speed (4.9 Speed Score) to make an impact in the counting categories. Beckham hasn’t been too unlucky with his BABIP, and though he does have the flaws to put him in this group (.117 ISO most prominently), his rookie year still shows his upside and makes his owners wonder which Beckham is the true version. These guys have a sliver of hope between them and the next group down.

Filler:
Carlos Guillen, Detroit (.331 wOBA, .353 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.335 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.323 wOBA, .316 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles AL (.311 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.300 wOBA, .304 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

This is a new tier, but the name reveals all. It’s nice to get most of the second basemen in the league listed in one place, so this group has a place. That place is probably not on your fantasy team unless most starters in your league are owned. It’s completely possible that not a single guy among the four will crack double-digits in either home runs or steals, or hit .300.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Zack Greinke – Last Player Picked has Greinke’s 2010 season valued at $0 so far this season, the same as Brandon League and Hisanori Takahashi. Clearly, that is not what owners expected when they spent a second or third-round pick on him. He is underperforming in every category, especially Wins, where he really has a chance to turn things around from here on out. Many fantasy owners abhor chasing Wins but with Greinke we have a player with a .200 winning percentage who has an outside shot to finish above .500 for the season. (R) ZiPS sees him going 8-6 and while that won’t get him to .500 it will make him a much more valuable pitcher going forward.

Pablo Sandoval – Coming into 2009, most fantasy owners thought Sandoval would hit for a good AVG but not give much in HR. Then he went out and put up a .330-25 season and expectations went through the roof for 2010. Sandoval has not met those expectations, instead putting up numbers more in line with preseason 2009 projections. Currently, Sandoval is struggling on the road, where he has a .261 BABIP and a .100 ISO. He is also scuffling versus LHP, with a .229 AVG. Last year Sandoval hit .379 versus southpaws. Sandoval is not going to revert to 2009 levels but there is room for growth in both power and especially AVG.

Matt Wieters – Subjectively, Wieters looks terrible at the plate. Objectively, Wieters has been similar to what he was in 2009 except for poor luck on BABIP. His ISO of .115 is right in line with the .124 he put up last year. His BB/K of 0.38 is similar to last year’s 0.33 and his HR/FB rate of 9.1 compares favorably to last season’s 8.4 percent. But last year Wieters had a .356 BABIP while this year it checks in 90 points lower. Any owner who has watched him play will be happy to trade him. Anyone who believes in regression could see him being a serviceable fantasy catcher the rest of the year.

SELL

Cole Hamels – One of the most common questions asked in these columns is “What could I get for Player X in trade?” That’s an impossible question to answer because there are so many variables involved, not the least of which is an individual owner’s trading skills. But since he was listed as a “buy” above, how about trading Hamels for Greinke? Here are the current numbers:

CH – 6 W, 3.75 ERA, 85 Ks, 1.31 WHIP — $3
ZG – 2 W, 3.94 ERA, 83 Ks, 1.20 WHIP — $0

And here are the (R) ZiPS projections:

CH – 7 W, 3.98 ERA, 109 Ks, 1.23 WHIP
ZG – 8 W, 3.41 ERA, 121 Ks, 1.18 WHIP

Kevin Kouzmanoff – After a slow start, Kouzmanoff has been raking in the month of June, with a .402 AVG, 5 HR and 13 RBIs, and a week still to go to pad the counting numbers. Kouzmanoff has a good chance to reach 20 HR but he has never been very good with his BABIP, which currently sits at .320 for the season. His current AVG seems inflated and this feels like the right time to execute a sell-high move.

Ty Wigginton – Perhaps a bit past the peak time to sell high, Wigginton still has good overall numbers. He has additional value due to his position eligibility. He has played over 20 games at both 1B and 2B, which combined with his eligibility at 3B from last season, makes him available to fill multiple holes for potential owners. While the forecast is not pessimistic for Wigginton going forward, owners have to be concerned about playing time. He is a butcher in the field and with the Orioles going nowhere, he could easily lose ABs down the stretch to younger players.

HUNCH

Alfredo Simon – Earlier in the year it looked like Simon was grabbing hold of the closer’s role. But an injury put everything in flux and the Orioles have David Hernandez and Mike Gonzalez as immediate and future competitors for the position. But I like Simon’s chances to nail down the role. (R) ZiPS really can’t be used as a comparison in this case, as it sees him making some starts the rest of the season. But Simon has 7 Saves currently and has a shot to finish the year with 20.