Archive for Trevor Rosenthal

In a tumultuous season for the Cardinals’ bullpen, it was starting to look like Trevor Rosenthal was creating some stability. He had rattled off seven consecutive saves over a 16-day period, the first six of which were scoreless.

On Wednesday night, it took just eight pitches to ruin that placid state. On his second pitch — a 91.4 mph four-seam fastball — Rosenthal gave up a home run to Xander Bogaerts. Six pitches later, Mitch Moreland took a free pass. Mike Matheny was sufficiently concerned that he removed Rosenthal for Zach Duke. Rosenthal averaged 94.3 mph on the six four-seam fastballs he threw, after he had hovered around 97 mph over his previous six appearances. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Duke and John Brebbia didn’t fare much better, and the latter gave up Mookie Betts‘ walk-off double.
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The Cardinals have been teetering on a the cusp of a closer change for awhile, and Mike Matheny may be finally taking the plunge with Trevor Rosenthal. It was Rosenthal, and not Seung Hwan Oh, who came in for the save at Arizona on Wednesday night, even though Oh was clearly available, having warmed up earlier in the game. Rosenthal came close to frittering away a 4-2 lead, as a wild pitch allowed Brandon Drury to score and Chris Herrmann to advance to third base with two outs. He eventually got out of the jam, getting David Peralta to ground into the final out.

Whether Rosenthal is officially the closer, sharing the job with Oh or the recipient of a one-off save chance is not yet known. If he is not the Cardinals’ full-time closer, he is certainly much closer to having that status than he was prior to Wednesday’s win. It’s time to find room to stash him.
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Let’s get to the injury updates/analysis….

Jung Ho Kang is on the 15-day DL with a left shoulder injury. No official word as to what he hurt, but the way he landed on it gives me some pause. Hopefully it is minor, and he did run off the field afterwards. These impact injuries could be anything in such a complex joint as the shoulder, from a collarbone fracture to a ligament sprain to a labral tear. Yes, non-pitchers can tear their labrum too. Tough timing because he was starting to hit the ball well.

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Phillies at Athletics: Ken Giles is the closer! This has already happened, but It’s my first BP Report since the Jonathan Papelbon grundle-grab, and I wanted to type it. I also wanted to type grundle-grab. Giles hasn’t had a save opportunity yet and his only 9th since was on 9/17. Sean Doolittle converted his 22nd save with 100% fastballs. Much of his success comes from throwing high, hard and historic which he did here:

I get two BP reports in a row so today i’ll focus a bit more on the game decisions and updates. Tomorrow I’ll get back to my normal per-pitch effect and component-comparison deal. I’ll also furnish an updated rankings list for your different league formats. I’m thinking the following:

5×5 (ERA,WHIP,W,K,SV)

6×6 (ERA,WHIP,W,K,SV + HOLDS)

5×5 Rate Stats Leagues (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, H/9, RA/9).

Any other formats? Shoot me a note in the comments section and maybe i’ll include it in tomorrow’s different rankings.

Indians at Twins: Glen Perkins has finally been shut down and Jared Burton will continue to consume closing responsibilities. While a MRI revealed no damage to his UCL (great news), he’ll be shutdown with a forearm strain and nerve irritation in his elbow. Strengthening and two months should do the trick. Burton got the win yesterday in 2/3 IP while Cody Allen blew his fourth save of the season through a Suzuki Double, Arcia Single and a botched double play ball.

Red Sox at Orioles: Edward Mujica got his 7th save of the season through three balls in play which is what we’ll continue to see from Mujica about 78% of the time (80% general contact-rate). Koji Uehara last pitched on 9/16 striking out the side. I just don’t see much motivation for them to make the swap at this point, but i’ll still swap him and Tazawa in the grid below. Zach Britton kept the game scoreless in the 9th and Darren O’Day continued his all or nothing month with a mistake and loss to David Ortiz. This says it all:

That red quadrilateral dead center? Yup, Ortiz capitalized.

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• White Sox at Yankees: David Robertson furnished save #34. D-Rob has only blown 2 saves all year this year and has done an awfully good job displacing Mariano Rivera. In fact, as a closer, Mariano Rivera never reached a 30% K-Rate and his career contact rate was 79.7%. D-Rob has a sub-70% contact rate this year and could be even better next year assuming the luck stats (BABIP based on his inflated line drive rate this year; HR/FB and LOB%) all take a step forward next year. It will be interesting to see where D-Rob lands next year considering he deserves a big payday and the Yankees still have another dominate K%(39.9%)/Contact%(70%) reliever in Dellin Betances. D-Rob got the 10th best K%-BB% in baseball right now: 28.5% tied with Koji Uehara.
• Rays at Blue Jays: Casey Janssen has offset an awful K-rate with the best BB-rate of his career, but he walked Wil Myers tonight to start the 9th and blew a save after a couple of singles. Brad Boxberger pulls an Armando Benitez and gives up a 2R-HR to Dioner Navarro and a double to Colby Rasmus. We were getting pretty spoiled with Boxberger: 8 scoreless innings since August 10th with a 13:1 K:BB ratio and only 3 hits. Between Koji Uehara yesterday as well as Boxberger and Ken Giles today, the R2M (Regression to the Means) Monster hit me hard this weekend.

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• The dreaded “closer in a non-save situation” …and Casey Janssen strikes out 2! The Blue Jays are only 4.5 games back from the Wild Card and Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez was up to start the inning so manager John Gibbons appropriately went all out. Janssen struck them both out, even though he only induced one whiff in seven swings total for the inning. Still, 12 of of his 15 pitches were thrown for strikes/fouls.
• “Put it in the (anxiety-inducing) Books” says (thinks) Howie Rose. With Jenrry Mejia unavailable due to his back and not his hernia supposedly, Jeurys Familia relieved Vic Black in the 8th after he loaded the bases. While he walked Sam Fuld forcing in run, he struck out Andy Parrino and got Josh Donaldson to ground out to shortstop. He got away with two things in the innings: the third strike to Parrino was a bit outside and the breaking ball on a full-count to Donaldson was a bit of a hanger although IMO it needed to be a breaking ball. At least it was thrown for a strike. A Stephen Vogt double after a Derek Norris strikeout in the 9th was the only other damage to give Familia the 5-out save. In any case, I think if he can continue to locate the fastball running outside on a lefty, he could be effective to all handedness. I’m a fan of the 3-pitch Fastball-Slider-Sinker repertoire that induces enough swinging strikes (12.4%) and ground balls (56%). We’re seeing it already in the outcomes and on the pitch level: According to Baseball Pro’s Pitchf/x Leaderboard, Familia has the 12th fasted RP velocity on the Fastball; 7th best whiff rate (51.43%) and 9th best GB/FB rate (3.2) on the slider; and 6th best whiff rate on the sinker (22.37%) which balances the fact that it only induces a 3.33 GB/FB ratio on it. If he can control the BB-rate, he should be successful and consume closing duties for at least the remainder of this year based on Mejia’s ailments. P.S. I’m a Mets fan so I apologies for the longevity associated with this run-on.
• Mark Melancon picks up the win (+1K) with a perfect inning in the top of the 9th vs. the Braves due to a Justin Upton error on a routine fly ball that allowed Jordy Mercer to score on a sac fly in the bottom of the 9th.
• Neftali Feliz hasn’t let up a run since August 3rd (only 6 appearances since). On this day, he had a 100% HR/FB ratio as Marcell Ozuna and Jarrod Saltalamachhia both went deep.
• A Bullpen Report where I don’t get to talk about Ken Giles or Brad Boxberger is a report I don’t enjoy writing nearly as much. Luckily, Ken Giles struck out Chris Denorfia, Logan Morrison and Dustin Ackley – all swinging in the 8th. To date, for relievers (200 pitches minimum), Giles has the 6th fastest FB velocity (97.72 MPH) with a top 15 whiff rate (26.7%). He also has a top 15 whiff rate on the slider (50.6%).
• The 8-9 punch of Darren O’Day and Zach Britton continues to ensure wins for the AL East leading O’s. O’Day strikes out both batters he faces and Britton strikes out 1 in a perfect 9th. O’Day threw 8/10 pitches for strikes: 4 whiffs, 3 looking, and only 1 time did the bat make (foul) contact with an O’Day offering. But Zach Britton! Whose ballsiest forecast had him at a 2.00 ERA and 30 saves?! a 77+% (77!!!) ground ball rate (11% flies and 12% liners) backs up the elite .222 BABIP right now. Nothing else on him screams elite, but the balls in play breakdown verifies the 2.04 ERA through a sub-2.00 SIERA.

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There seems to be plenty to love about the Cardinals bullpen here in 2014, particularly from a fantasy standpoint. And we’re not just talking about saves here. Should your league count holds and use stats such as K/9 or HRA, then this is the pen you want to sift through on draft day. The arms are young, electric and should miss an awful lot of bats this season. Read the rest of this entry »

Finally, the “Updated Middle Reliever Tiers” are complete, for now. Each of the five standard pitching categories — and of course holds — played a role in determining these tiers.

The first two tiers were pretty simple to establish. Horses like Mark Melancon, Jesse Crain and Trevor Rosenthal seem to have separated themselves from the rest of the pack through the first two months of the season and are elite middle relief commodities at this point. But when it came time to find homes for the Aaron Loups and Cody Allens of the world, I felt like I was splitting hairs.

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It was a slow day on the diamond with just five games on the schedule, so here are just a few bullpen notes to hold you over…

Jason Grilli’s early season ninth-inning heroics vaulted him to the number seven slot in the Bullpen Report’s “Updated Consensus Closer Ranks,” and this afternoon’s 14-pitch effort did nothing but solidify that ranking. The Pirates closer faced the minimum in the ninth and struck out the final two Cubbies to remain a perfect 19-for-19 in save chances this year. The two looking strikeouts — courtesy of Luis Valbuena and Welington Castillo — inflated the right-handers whiff rate to 41.4% on the year, which as of tonight, is a major league best. In addition to the fantastic strikeout rate, Grilli lowered his ERA and WHIP to 1.25 and 0.74 WHIP on the year respectively.

To be fair, Jason Grilli isn’t the only story coming out of the Pirates ‘pen these days. Twenty-eight-year-old Mark Melancon owns a 0.72 ERA, 0.80 WHIP a 27.4% K%, a 1.1% BB% and has notched a league-leading 16 holds in 25 trips to the hill. Yes, those numbers are real. Parlay those ratios and whiffs with a scab win here, a scab save there and you could have yourself a top 100 player. Melancon is owned in just 20% of Y! leagues, but at this point, he’ll be more than useful in all 12-team and deeper mixed formats.

Papa Grande shook hands for the fifth time this season as the Tigers closed out the Twins, 7-6. Valverde sat down the Twinkies in order — including two via the strikeout — to raise his strikeout rate to 25% on the season. In 11 appearance since rejoining the Tigers, Valverde is 4-of-4 in save chances with a 0.82 ERA and a 0.54 WHIP. Today’s save pushes Jose Valverde’s career save total up to 282, placing him 28th on the all-time career saves list and only behind Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodriguez among those still in the game. Watch out Mo, Jose is just 343 saves away!

There are seven middle relievers that have earned four or more holds in the past two weeks. Joel Peralta (6) notched the most of the bunch, while Trevor Rosenthal and David Robertson are the only two with a minimum of four holds and ten strikeouts. Four of the seven — Jesse Crain, Sean Doolittle, Jake McGee and Trevor Rosenthal — own a perfect 0.00 ERA. And what do you get when you add Rosenthal, McGee and Doolittle’s efforts together over that time? A 2-0 pitcher who sports a glistening 0.00 ERA and a 7.6 K/BB. Yes, that’s Chris Sale territory. Moral of the blurb? If the top 20 starting pitcher you’re looking to acquire continues to elude you, simply stack a few elite middle relievers and get close to the same result — if you have the roster spots.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Fantasy baseballers in non-holds leagues often look past middle relievers who don’t appear to be in line for saves. But these late-inning arms can provide support in the wins, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and even K/BB categories for those in alternative formats.

Here are three middle relievers who could help you stabilize a few categories in your standard non-holds leagues.

All ownership percentages reflect Yahoo! leagues.

Trevor Rosenthal | Cardinals | 15% – Trevor Rosenthal became a household name late last season when his rocket of an arm first went on display in the bigs. Based on this showing, industry analysts quickly pegged the fireballer as the favorite to succeed Jason Motte for ninth-inning duties in St. Louis when Motte went down with what would eventually be a torn ulnar collateral ligament. And Mike Matheny provided Rosenthal with the opportunity to do so, but he blew two saves in his first four outings, resulting in Edward Mujica’s ascension into the Cardinals’ closing role.

Despite the fact that Rosenthal may not get the nod in the ninth frame doesn’t suggest the right-hander isn’t valuable for fantasy purposes. Sure, a large portion of the 15% of leagues that own shares of Rosenthal are likely to be holds leagues where he carries the most value, but it’s time for owners in all leagues to consider adding the 23-year-old for steady production in the strikeout and ratio categories.

Rosenthal’s 30.9 K% isn’t exactly Kimbrelian, but it places him among the top 25 relievers with at least 10 innings on the hill — and it reeks of upside. His current 2.95 ERA (2.85 FIP) and 1.31 WHIP also leave a lot to be desired — especially if you’re adding him for ratio support — but it appears he’s made some strides as of late. In Rosenthal’s last six trips to the bump (5.2 IP), he’s posted a 0.00 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP and a 33% K%. Seems helpful, right? It is.

Parlay the fireballer’s recent success with the understanding that he has just 41 major league innings under his belt and he has the potential to be a future closer.

Jerry Blevins | Athletics | 4%  – Blevins, the Athletics’ 29-year-old southpaw, is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA (1.78 FIP), a 0.71 WHIP and a 27.9 K% in just over 18 innings of work. He’s missing bats and inducing weak contact at career rates — 12.5% SwStr% and 25% IFFB% respectively — meaning his stuff is either better than ever or he’s due for some regression. In addition to the spike in swings-and-misses and weak contact, Blevins has earned more fly ball outs in ‘13 (50% FB%) versus his career (43.7% FB%), but luckily, most are falling in the field of play (4.2% HR/FB — also a career best).

Blevins may get bit by the regression bug sooner-or-later, but in the meantime, allow him to provide your team with some scab wins, strikeouts and ratio support. Leaving a middle reliever like Blevins in your starting lineup is a relatively low-risk strategy to gain an edge in those categories since they pitch so few innings per week.

Steve Delabar | Blue Jays | 2% – Speaking of scab wins, Delabar is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA (2.83 FIP) and a 28.2% K%. Fantasy owners love the three scabs wins, but we can’t expect them going forward since there is a bit of luck associated with them. The downfall for the 29-year-old is an unimpressive 16.5% BB% — the root of a 1.35 WHIP — but sometimes we have to take the good with the bad. Streaming middles like Delabar in deeper rotisserie or head-to-head formats is an intriguing strategy for owners looking for a few extra strikeouts and some possible wins.