Archive for travis wood

Las Vegas seems to think that 2016 might just be the year when Cubs fans finally celebrate a World Series win in the streets of Wrigleyville. Stacked with a potent lineup from top to bottom and arguably the best starting five in baseball, Theo Epstein’s deity status could extend westward some 850 miles come October. But while there’s no position battle in the rotation to speak of, injury concerns, like curses, are real something to write about.

John Lackey joins Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, and Jason Hammel in a formidable rotation that ZiPs projects for nearly 17 WAR. But they also enter 2016 having pitched a combined 6,674.1 career innings. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at who stands to step in should any of the Cubs’, let’s go with, seasoned starters miss some time.

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One of the more interesting keeper choices I have in one league this offseason is Cubs left-hander Travis Wood. It was late in my auction draft and I was looking for some unheralded young arms who people seemed to be overlooking yet could be in line for a potential breakout. I ended up with Wood for $3. I could have gotten him for a buck, but one guy was simply trying to get people to eat through their remaining bid money and he forced me into the extra money. Given what I had left, I had no problem throwing down the extra cash and I’m happy I did as he put together a fantastic season for himself. Now, given our league inflation rate, he’ll only go to $4 for this year, but the question is, is he still worth it? Does he still have what I saw in him last March and can that be brought to the table once again? Read the rest of this entry »

Travis Wood has a 2.03 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He’s now thrown 53.1 innings and given up only 31 hits, striking out 36 opposing batters. Travis Wood will destroy all comers.

That’s probably what owners are telling you anyway.

You don’t have to dig too deep to notice that Wood’s FIP is 3.65 and xFIP is 4.46 (his career xFIP is 4.44). His strikeout rate and walk rates are lined up neatly with his career averages (and neither are very good), and he’s really living off that .186 BABIP and 83% strand rate. If you’re busy, there’s the end of the story, move on to another award winner by Jeff Sullivan.

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As Eno pointed out yesterday, streaming on the final day of the season can be a tricky proposition. Teams headed for the playoffs might pull back a starter or at least give him an early hook while team that are out of it could leave a pitcher in far longer than he should be left in (rember Edwin Jackson’s last start?). But if you can grab even the slightest advantage in your final head to head match-up or you can eke out another point or two in your roto league, you’ve got to do whatever it takes to give yourself the best possible chance to win. Here are some names to consider here at the end… Read the rest of this entry »

The Cincinnati Reds, now with Mat Latos on board and apparently ready to let Mike Leake abscond with the back-end rotation duties, used their plethora of starters to acquire Sean Marshall, whom they view as having the potential to close games. In that deal, they jettisoned Travis Wood along with two youths to the Chicago Cubs, where he will likely slot in as the team’s #3 starter behind Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza, assuming of course that Garza is not traded.

Wood, 24, will be under team control for five years, so there’s certainly time for the Cubs to be patient, but for fantasy baseball purposes in 2012, the more pressing issue is what does this move mean for his value now.

In 2010, it appeared that Wood was establishing himself as a rising star with a 3.51 ERA (3.42 FIP), 1.08 WHIP, and a K/9 of 7.54 in over 100 innings pitched – all as a starter. Some concern was that his 2010 was somewhat buoyed by a .259 BABIP and a low HR/FB rate of 6.3% for a flyball pitcher in a hitters park. Indeed, 2011 treated him to a .324 BABIP although his HR/FB rate still remained low at 6.7%. On the whole, he was far more hittable and he lacked his usual control leading to a disappointing 4.84 ERA (4.06 FIP) and 1.49 WHIP, ultimately resulting in a demotion. When he was recalled, it was mostly as a reliever, and he remained ineffective.

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The first three slots in the Cincinnati Reds’ rotation are set — Johnny Cueto’s locked up long-term, Bronson Arroyo will keep on strumming Fenders and tossing benders after getting his own contract extension, and Edinson Volquez looks to polish his post-Tommy John stuff in front of paying crowds once his visa situation allows him to do so. But who will fill the fourth and fifth spots for the defending NL Central champs? Here’s a quick rundown of the candidates (listed in alphabetical order), along with their 2011 projections from Oliver, PECOTA and ZiPS.

Homer Bailey

Oliver: 7.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.61 ERA
PECOTA: 7.2 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.54 ERA
ZiPS: 7.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.47 ERA

Bailey, a former top 10 prospect who took some beatings as a 21 and 22 year-old breaking into the majors, made considerable progress on the mound last season. The difference between his 2009 and 2010 ERAs was minuscule — 4.53 in ’09, and 4.46 in ’10 — but his xFIP, based on whiffs, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, improved from 4.58 to 3.91. Bailey upped his K rate from 6.83 per nine to 8.26, and he pared his free passes from 4.13 per nine to 3.3.

That whiff rate may come down some this year — his swinging strike rate last season was just average (8.4 percent), and his contact rate (81.8%) was actually a percentage point above the big league norm. Plus, Bailey does come with durability concerns. He missed nearly three months last season with shoulder inflammation, from late May to mid-August. Out of minor league options, Bailey looks to be the favorite for the fourth rotation spot. Maybe he’ll never be a phenom, but he’s capable of posting an ERA better than the league average if he can avoid further injury woes.

Aroldis Chapman

Oliver (as RP): 9.3 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.91 ERA
PECOTA: 10.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.36 ERA
ZiPS (split role): 10.6 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.00 ERA

By all accounts, Chapman is headed to the bullpen to start the season. As the above projections suggest, the Cuban’s triple-digit heat will elicit lots of late swings; hitters might just want to plaster their bats on their shoulders and hope for ball four. Chapman made 13 starts and 25 relief appearances at AAA Louisville last year, punching out 11.6 per nine while walking nearly five, and then averaged nearly 100 MPH with his fastball out of the Reds pen while throwing the fastest recorded pitch in MLB history.

The 23-year-old lefty won’t figure into the back-of-the-rotation conversation without a change of heart by management, but he’s plenty capable of pushing incumbent closer Francisco Cordero aside. Cordero’s K rate has fallen four years running, a period during which his xFIP has climbed from 2.82 to 4.53.

Mike Leake

Oliver: 6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.08 ERA
PECOTA: 5.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.81 ERA
ZiPS: 5.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.34 ERA

The eighth overall pick in the ’09 draft out of Arizona state, Leaked leaped right to the majors and proved to be a quality, if not terribly exciting, starting option. Throwing everything but a Ephus — two-seamers, sliders, curves, cutters, changeups — Leake had 5.92 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, a 50.2% ground ball rate and a 4.31 xFIP. His rookie season did end on a dour note, as he was placed on the DL in late August with shoulder fatigue. Leake didn’t throw another pitch after that, as Cincinnati played it safe and shut him down for the rest of the year.

Leake currently appears to be the sixth man for the Reds, behind Bailey and Wood, and GM Walt Jocketty said in February that Leake could end up in the bullpen rather than going to the minors to keep stretched out if he loses out on a rotation spot. Of course, no team’s one-through-five ends up staying perfectly healthy and productive — Leake is one sore elbow or shoulder away from regular rotation turns. He’s not going to miss many bats, but Leake’s ground ball tendencies aid him in a park where warning track flys often turn into round-trippers.

Sam LeCure

Oliver: 6.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.12 ERA
PECOTA: 6.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.86 ERA
ZiPS: 6.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.00 ERA

LeCure, a 26-year-old with a four-pitch mix (high-80s fastball, upper-70s slider, low-70s curve, and a low-80s change), faces the longest odds of any pitcher listed here. In 48 MLB innings pitched last year, divided between starting and relief, LeCure had 6.94 K/9, 4.69 BB/9 and a 4.86 xFIP. The former Longhorn has sharper control of his limited stuff than that sample suggests, but his career minor league walk rate of three per nine is more decent than Maddux-esque.

LeCure did generate more grounders last season (54% at AAA, 45.6% with the Reds). Considering that Great American Ballpark increases home run production by 20 percent for left-handed hitters and 33 percent for righties, he’ll need to retain those gains to be much more than replacement-level flotsam.

Matt Maloney

Oliver: 6.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.43 ERA
PECOTA: 6.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.26 ERA
ZiPS: 6.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 ERA

As a lefty who relies on pinpoint control to compensate for a fastball that needs a strong backwind to reach the upper-80s on the gun, Maloney’s game is the antithesis of Chapman’s pure power. That said, the former Phillies prospect has 7.9 K/9, 2 BB/9, and 0.7 HR/9 in well over 400 innings at the Triple-A level. Maloney has performed adequately in 61.1 MLB innings divided between starting and relief over the past two years, with about six whiffs per nine innings, 1.9 BB/9 and a 4.70 xFIP. On a lot of teams, he’d have a good shot at pulling down a rotation spot. In Cincy, however, he’s a long shot looking to secure a bullpen spot for Opening Day.

All three projection systems have Maloney coughing up ample home runs, and dingers may well be a problem for the fly ball-centric 27-year-old. According to First Inning, Maloney’s ground ball rates have ranged from 40 to 45% at AAA, and he has induced grounders about 35% of the time in the big leagues. Maloney needs his exquisite control to limit multi-run long-ball damage.

Travis Wood

Oliver: 6.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.87 ERA
PECOTA: 6.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.06 ERA
ZiPS: 7.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.64 ERA

A lithe left-hander who originally got scouts all hot under the polo shirt collar as high schooler throwing 95 MPH, Wood no longer touches that velocity but nonetheless looks like a good fantasy option poised to win the fifth starter’s gig. After posting rates of 8.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 3.23 FIP in an even 100 AAA frames, Wood got the major league call in July. While he averaged about 90 MPH with his gas, Wood’s cutter, change and curve enticed batters to expand their zones — his 32.8 outside swing percentage was well above the 29.3% MLB average. In 102.2 innings with the Reds, Wood struck out 7.54 hitters per nine innings and walked just 2.28 per nine on his way to a 3.51 ERA.

I said that Wood is a good fantasy option, but whether he’s a good value is another question. Wood’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (30.5 GB% in the majors), and his home run per fly ball rate (6.3%) figures to rise. So will his BABIP (.259 last year), though perhaps less than most given those aforementioned flyballing ways (fly balls have a lower BABIP than grounders). If you draft Wood expecting an ERA somewhere in the neighborhood of four, you won’t be disappointed. Get caught up in his near no-no and mid-threes ERA, and you might end up pulling the trigger while better options are still on the board.

On Saturday night, Cincinnati Reds lefty Travis Wood nearly became the third starting pitcher to twirl a perfect game during the 2010 season (well, technically fourth, but let’s not beat a dead horse). The 23-year-old went toe-to-toe with Roy Halladay, who achieved perfection on May 29th against the Marlins. Wood punched out eight, walked none and surrendered just one hit (a double to Carlos Ruiz to lead off the 9th) while going nine frames. Despite that superb effort, the Phillies prevailed in 11 innings.

Wood went to his fastball early and often — according to BrooksBaseball.net, he threw his 90 MPH four-seamer (topping out at 93 MPH) on 77 of his 109 pitches (71 percent), getting a strike with the pitch 71 percent of the time. He also mixed in some high-80’s cutters, low-80’s changeups and low-70’s curves. Overall, Wood threw strikes 68 percent of the time.

So, who is this guy, and what can we expect from him moving forward? Let’s take a closer look.

An Arkansas prep player, Wood was selected by the Reds in the second round of the 2005 draft. The 5-11, 165 pound port sider had a strong college commitment to Arkansas, but Cincy persuaded him to turn pro for $600,000. Wood’s size and delivery (Baseball America said he had some recoil at the end) scared some scouts, but his fastball piqued their interest. Here’s part of BA’s scouting report from 2005:

Wood is a long-term project, albeit an intriguing one because there aren’t many lefthanders who can reach 95 mph. His fastball sat at 88-91 mph for much of the spring, but he started making more frequent forays into the mid-90s as the draft drew closer. Wood isn’t tall, but he generates his velocity with a quick arm and athleticism. Wood hasn’t shown much aptitude for spinning a breaking ball, and his curveball ranges from below-average to decent. For the most part, he just rears back and blows fastballs by inferior competition.

Wood made his debut that summer, putting hitters to shame in 48.2 innings split between the Rookie Level Pioneer and Gulf Coast leagues (12.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 2.29 FIP). In 2006, he moved up to the Low-A Midwest League and continued to miss lots of bats — 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 4.01 FIP in 140 frames. After the season, BA noted that his low-to-mid-90’s fastball from high school was largely absent (he sat 87-91 MPH), but his changeup had developed into a true weapon. His breaking ball, on the other hand, remained a work in progress.

Unfortunately, Wood wouldn’t get much of a chance to improve in 2007. Bothered by a sore shoulder, Wood saw his fastball velocity dip into the mid-80’s at times, generally sitting in the high-80’s. He logged just 46.1 innings in the High-A Florida State League, with 10.5 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9 and a 4.37 FIP. Baseball America, which rated him as the third-best prospect in the Reds’ system before 2006 and number six prior to 2007, dropped him down to 21st leading up to the 2008 campaign.

2008 did little to redeem his standing within the organization. Opening the season back in the FSL, Wood performed decently — he whiffed 7.9 per nine innings, walked 4.1 per nine and served up 0.4 HR/9. His FIP in 46.2 innings was 3.48, and his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP (per Minor League Splits) was 3.94. But a promotion to the Double-A Southern League proved difficult. His K rate declined (6.5 K/9), his walk rate ballooned to 5.4 BB/9 and he gave up a homer per nine frames. Wood’s ERA was a macabre 7.09 in 80 innings. While he wasn’t near that bad, a 4.92 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was nothing special. BA booted him off of Cincinnati’s top 30 list altogether.

Last year, the Reds sent him back to the Southern League. Wood responded with 7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 0.15 HR/9 in 119 IP. His adjusted FIP was 3.98. Following a promotion to the Triple-A International League, Wood struck out 5.9 per nine, issued 3 BB/9 and had 0.7 HR/9. In 48.2 innings, his adjusted FIP was 4.23. Leading up to 2010, BA jumped Wood back up to seventh on the Reds’ list of top farm talents, saying that he remained healthy, regained his 88-91 MPH fastball velocity and added a cutter to his repertoire.

Back at Louisville this season, Wood thrived. Prior to his July 1st big league debut, Wood had 8.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 3.00 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP in 98 IP. After last night’s masterpiece, he’s got a 17/5 K/BB in 20.2 MLB innings, with a 3.99 xFIP. It’s a very small sample, but hitters have chased Wood’s stuff out of the zone 34.3% of the time (28.6% MLB average).

Before you get too excited about a rookie starter zooming out of the game and nearly making history, it’s important to remember that Wood has long been regarded as more of a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation-type. BA mentioned that some scouts question his long-term durability, while John Sickels said Wood “looks more like a four/five starter based on his stuff.” He’s a fly ball pitcher (career 41 GB%) who’ll make his home starts in a park that, according to the Bill James Handbook, increased home run production by 25 percent compared to a neutral stadium from 2007-2009.

Per Minor League Splits, Wood’s performance at Louisville this season equates to a 4.58 major league FIP, with 7.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. CHONE’s rest-of-season-projection is similar — a 4.58 neutralized ERA, with 7.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. Should Wood remain in the major league rotation, those forecasts look about right to me — near perfecto aside, he’s more of a serviceable big league arm than a future star.

Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

MIN – Carl Pavano
OAK – Trevor Cahill
WAS – Livan Hernandez
SEA – Erik Bedard
DET – Andrew Oliver
CIN – Travis Wood

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

MIN – Kevin Slowey
DET – Armando Galarraga
MIL – David Bush
CIN – Edinson Volquez
SEA – Ryan Rowland-Smith
WAS – J.D. Martin

Pavano has hurled five straight Quality Starts and has gone 4-0 in that stretch. Both his FIP and xFIP are right in line with his 2009 numbers, but Pavano has seen his ERA drop from 5.10 last year to 3.30 in 2010. He’s been lucky with a .261 BABIP but he has also upped his GB% to 47.6 percent, his highest since 2005.

Cahill has a 2.24 K/BB ratio, up from 1.25 a season ago. While both his FIP and xFIP show a pitcher around a 4.00 ERA, Cahill’s actual mark is 2.74. He beat both his FIP and xFIP in 2009 and may turn into the rare pitcher who can do it on a consistent basis. A 54.3 GB% certainly helps and a .232 BABIP also holds down Cahill’s overall numbers.

Hernandez continues to confound the experts, who predict him to collapse virtually every outing. One thing that Hernandez does exceptionally well is take advantage of his home ballpark. He is 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP in Nationals Park. On the road Hernandez is 2-3 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.432 WHIP. This week he has home starts against the Padres and Giants.

Bedard is slated to come off the DL and make his 2010 season debut. He is trying to make it back from labrum surgery and has not pitched in the majors since July 25th of last year. Assuming no further setbacks, Bedard will get two home starts, but will have to square off against Zack Greinke and C.C. Sabathia.

Oliver was a second-round draft pick in 2009. He started his professional career in Double-A Erie this year and went 6-4 with a 3.61 ERA. In 77.1 IP, he had 70 Ks and 25 BB. Oliver has pitched well in his two starts for the Tigers but has yet to come away with a Win. A fastball-slider pitcher, Oliver has averaged 93.5 with his heater so far but his success will rise or fall with his breaking pitch.

Wood went 13-5 between Double and Triple-A last year and was 5-6 with a 3.12 ERA this year at Louisville. He made his major league debut July 1st against the Cubs and turned in a Quality Start, as he allowed just 2 ER in 7 IP but came away with a no-decision. Wood averaged 90.4 with his fastball but profiles as more of a finesse pitcher, as he also throws a cutter, change, slider and curve.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Tyler Colvin: You have to give a break to this former (surprise) No. 1 draft pick by the Cubs. He had a pretty lousy approach at the plate, which resulted in walk rates of 6.0% and 3.0% early on in his career. After a lousy double-A season in 2008, the organization demoted him to high-A to begin the year. Still only 23, the outfielder changed his ways to a degree and increased his walk rate to 10.4%, although he hit just .250/.326/.357 with just one homer in 112 at-bats. Colvin was rewarded with a trip back to double-A, where he is hitting .319/.342/.652 with six homers in 69 at-bats. The bad news, though, is that he’s reverted to his old ways and has a walk rate of 4.2%. Toronto’s catching prospect J.P. Arencibia should be paying attention.

Kila Ka’aihue: Despite breaking out in a big way in 2008, Ka’aihue failed to impress the Royals’ management, which went out and acquired Mike Jacobs from the Marlins, who is now hitting .231/.314/.431 with 10 homers in 216 at-bats. And he’s doing it for $3.5 million. Ka’aihue, on the other hand, hit 38 homers last year in the minors and has a triple-A line of .273/.417/.498 with 10 homers in 227 at-bats and could be doing that in the Majors at the league minimum. The 25-year-old first baseman has also posted an ISO above .200 for the past three years. Right now, he’s a wasted resource. As of late, you don’t hear quite as much love expressed for Royals’ GM Dayton Moore as you did this past off-season.

Chris Carter (Oakland): Another powerful first baseman, Carter (not to be confused with the one in Boston) has made a lot of improvements to his game over last year – and that’s saying a lot considering he hit 39 homers with 104 walks. Although he’s not hitting for as much power, Carter has reduced his strikeout rate, while also increasing his batting average over last year when he hit .259 in high-A. This year in double-A, he has a line of .292/.396/.496 with 11 homers and 23 doubles in 284 at-bats. The 22-year-old prospect is probably less than a year away from helping out at the MLB level.

Michael Taylor: The Phillies organization has to be ecstatic with the development that Taylor has made over the past two seasons. A good, but not great, player at Stanford University, Taylor exploded in 2008 and hit .341/.408/.553 with 19 homers combined between two A-ball affiliates. In double-A in 2009, the 6’6” 250 lbs outfielder is hitting .340/.399/.579 with 13 homers in 247 at-bats, proving last year was no fluke. He’s even stolen 11 bases in 15 attempts. The 23 year old is a bit of an unusual prospect – not unlike San Diego’s Kyle Blanks.

Jarrod Parker: Another first-round prep pitching gem from the 2007 draft, had a nice debut season in 2008. His stuff has been even crisper in 2009 and he was promoted to double-A from high-A after just four starts (0.95 ERA, 12 hits in 19 IP). At double-A, the right-hander has been a little more hittable with 51 hits allowed in 47.1 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 4.18 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.32 K/9. Only 20, Parker is holding his own at a level dominated by 23 year olds. With a fastball that can touch the upper 90s and improvements being made on the secondary pitches, Parker could develop into a No. 2 starter, if not a No. 1, which will be good news for the Arizona organization if ace Brandon Webb has to undergo shoulder surgery.

Marc Rzepczynski: A senior draft pick out of UC Riverside in 2007, this southpaw has improved with each minor league step he’s taken. Not only does Rzepczynski strike out his fair share of batters (almost 10.0 K/9 in his three-year career), the hurler also gets a mind-boggling number of groundball outs (career 64.6 GB%). His fastball is more like a bowling ball that can touch 92 mph and he also has a good slider and sinking (of course) changeup. With all the pitching injuries in Toronto, Rzepczynski could be up before the end of the season. His ultimate ceiling is probably that of a No. 3 starter.

Travis Wood: Wood is a perfect example of why you never give up on a good arm. The left-hander is a former second-round pick out of high school from 2005. He’s battled injuries and inconsistencies. Last year in 17 double-A starts, Wood posted a 7.09 ERA and allowed 91 hits and 48 walks in just 80 innings. This year, though, things have clicked again and he’s leading the minors in ERA with a 1.27 mark (2.82 FIP) in 15 starts. He’s allowed just 62 hits in 92 innings, along with a walk rate of 3.33 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.63 K/9. Only 22, Wood has allowed just one homer this year.

Kasey Kiker: The club’s first-round selection out of high school in the 2006 draft, Kiker sometimes gets lost in the shuffle with all the other great prospects in the Rangers’ system. The left-hander is having another solid year, this time in double-A, with a 3.25 ERA (4.21 FIP) and 64 hits allowed in 72 innings. He also has a walk rate of 4.63 BB/9 and 8.25 K/9. Only 5’11” 185 lbs, Kiker could eventually move to the bullpen, where his fastball has hit 95-97 mph in shorter stints.