Archive for Torii Hunter

This is a subject I tackled last year, but the basic idea for this article is that people playing in leagues that use non-traditional roto categories may not be equipped with proper draft materials. Almost any set of rankings you can find online are compiled with the standard 5×5 roto categories in mind. Some sites may have rankings published specifically for leagues that replace batting average with OBP, but the vast majority assume standard categories. If you’re using a set of rankings from a site or magazine, you’re doing yourself a disservice unless those rankings were designed for OBP leagues.

I’ve compiled my own projections for 242 hitters to generate my own rankings, and I’ve generated rankings specifically for standard 5×5 leagues and leagues that have replaced batting average with OBP. I want to highlight the players who gain the most in OBP leagues and the players who are hurt the most when OBP replaces average. I base my rankings off a number Zach Sanders calls Fantasy Value Above Replacement (FVARz). Essentially I assign each player a value for each category and add them all up while adjusting for positional scarcity.

Below I’ve included two lists; one shows the players whose FVARz increases the most when OBP replaces average, and the other shows the players whose FVARz decreases the most. I’ve also included their ranking among hitters and auction values for both batting average and OBP leagues. Over on a site of which I’m the managing editor, TheFantasyFix.com, I’ve posted how the rankings and auction values change for all 242 hitters I have projections for when the switch is made to OBP. You can find that here. All values are based on 10-team leagues with 25-man rosters, 13 starting hitter slots and three bench slots. If you have questions about the methodology, the charts or anything else, hit me up in the comments. Read the rest of this entry »

While Nelson Cruz seems to be fouling up a half dozen of our depth chart discussions, assuming the Detroit Tigers don’t boldly go where everyone says not to, their outfield situation is pretty well sewn up. And although they may lack star power, for fantasy purposes, there are players that just might help you.

Read the rest of this entry »

Continuing with our look at the RotoGraphs Reader Mock Draft, here’s a glance at Rounds 17-20.  Since risk is much less of a concern this far down in the draft, I’ll just highlight my favorite pick in the round followed up with some thoughts on some of the other selections. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a long time since we’ve updated the outfielders – moving across country will do that to you. While I struggled with boxes and furniture, injuries and mediocre play have done some serious damage at the top of the tier.

The Top Options:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.361 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.339 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.435 wOBA, .390 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.400 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.344 wOBA, .376 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.395 wOBA, .365 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.389 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox (.377 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.373 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This may upset some people, but it’s just hard to separate out an elite sub-set of outfielders right now. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton certainly have the upside to go on a tear and make this ranking seem silly, but right now they just aren’t showing it. They may even need to go on a tear just to get to the lower end of their preseason projections. Another way to spin this is that there are a lot of really nice outfielders. Everyone in this tier, all the way down to Carlos Gonzalez can give you positive value in all five fantasy categories. Upton’s strikeout rate might mean that his batting average will sink him out of this tier, but he’s also shown lower strikeout rates and higher batting averages in the past, so let’s not count him out yet.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.351 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.381 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.399 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.362 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA))
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.279 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.382 wOBA, .378 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Although this tier is headed up by a couple of veterans, it’s the young speedsters that have the better chance of moving up the ladder. Ichiro! will give you the batting average, but the rest of his line looks a little too much like Denard Span’s to award him first-tier status, and it’s McCutchen that might soon put up Crawford-like numbers to advance tiers. Torii Hunter has power and speed, but it’s a healthy Shin-Soo Choo that has the stronger batting average, so therefore more upside.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York AL (.371 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Dunn, Washington (.403 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the group that provides OF1-like production in deeper leagues, but they’d make a shallow mixed league roster look a little wonky. Brett Gardner and Jayson Werth are the risers here, but Adam Dunn belongs even with his batting average. Manny Ramirez may just fall another tier, especially if he’s out much longer after the break. He’s still good when he’s in, though.

Upside to Join the Top
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.321 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.388 wOBA, .347 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jason Bay, New York NL (.349 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.373 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.363 wOBA, .362 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Colby Rasmus fans will hem and haw, but they might want to check the rest-of-season projections for Curtis Granderson before they get too heated up. They both have some platoon issues (Granderson’s are more pronounced), both don’t have great batting averages, and both have great power and speed. Oh, and this space feels a little vindicated by Carlos Quentin’s recent hot streak, which has shown that he still has much power, even if the batting average is a problem. The BABIP is so low that with additional regression even the batting average might be nice for the second half.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Dan Haren – One of the top 10 pitchers off the board in most fantasy drafts, Haren has produced a -$3 fantasy value this year according to Last Player Picked. On top of that, Haren is known as a first-half pitcher, as his ERA is nearly a full run higher after the All-Star break and his WHIP goes from 1.085 to 1.316 in the second half of the year. But Haren has been one of the unluckier pitchers around, with a .342 BABIP and a 17.0 HR/FB rate. His GB/FB ratio is nearly identical to where it was a year ago and Haren’s K/BB ratio of 5.53 is the second-best mark in baseball.

Juan Rivera – His ownership rate in CBS Sports leagues has declined from 77 percent on Opening Day to just 45% this week. Rivera got off to a slow start in April and did even worse in May. But Rivera had just a .203 BABIP last month. With Kendry Morales on the shelf, there are no worries about Rivera not getting the playing time to work out of his slump. He is likely available for little cost and could provide a nice HR bump going forward. And with a little better luck on balls in play he could prove not to be an anchor in AVG, either.

David Wright – Current owners may look at his .353 BABIP and .269 AVG and decide that Wright is no longer an elite fantasy player. Certainly, the 35.5 K% is troubling to everyone. But Wright’s HR power is back from its 2009 vacation, as his 16.4 HR/FB mark is nearly 10 percent higher from a year ago and right in line with the numbers he produced from 2004-2008. (U) ZiPS sees him getting the same 27 SB he did a season ago. So the big question is: How will Wright do in AVG here on out? A plethora of Ks killed his AVG through most of May, but Wright seems to be getting on track recently. In the tiny sample of eight games, Wright has 6 Ks in 29 ABs and a .310/.382/.517 slash line. In his previous 21 games, Wright fanned in 34 of his 80 ABs and posted a .250 AVG. If Wright can keep his strikeouts down to his career level of 20.9 percent, he is a good bet to challenge for .300 going forward.

SELL

Elvis Andrus – Despite a .267 AVG last year, Andrus excited fantasy players with his ability to steal bases. (U) ZiPS shows him finishing the 2010 season with 43 SB, which would top all of the preseason projections for him. Andrus is also projected to smash the preseason predicitions with 92 R, thanks in part to his move to the top of the order. But now is the time to sell high on the Rangers’ shortstop. His .380 BABIP screams regression. (R) ZiPS sees a .318 mark here on out and even that might be optimistic. As a GB hitter with good speed who can hit line drives, Andrus profiles as a player who would post a high BABIP. But last year he had a .305 mark in 541 PA.

Matt Garza – A four-category contributor on the first-place Rays, Garza is ready to challenge for career-bests in each fantasy category. But his K/9 is down from 8.38 a year ago to 7.11, his GB/FB ratio is a career-low 0.84 and he has a .266 BABIP. Garza has consistently posted low HR rates, so his FIP might be a better marker than xFIP, but both of those metrics are a full run above his current 3.08 ERA.

Andy Pettitte – The Yankees ace just keeps rolling along and is on pace for a 20-win season for the first time since 2003. But (R) ZiPS sees his production from here on out falling off significantly. And given Pettitte’s age (38 in June), xFIP (4.09) and injury concern, that projection should be taken seriously. Pettitte missed a start in early May due to elbow inflammation. In four starts since returning, he has a 3.08 ERA and a 4.85 K/9.

HUNCH

Torii Hunter – Last season Hunter was enjoying a career year before ending up on the DL with a groin injury which cost him 39 games. This year Hunter got off to a solid start in April but scuffled in May. After pounding fastballs last year, Hunter is below-average against them this season. I like Hunter to recapture the magic from last year and exceed his (U) ZiPS projection of .278-21-83-77-12.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders and left fielders.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

There might be some grumblings about putting Matt Kemp into a tier of his own. The fact is, he’s the closest to .300 30/30 out there and that means something. Even with the eventual bounce back that both Grady Sizemore (.276 BABIP in 09, .308 xBABIP in 09, .317 career BABIP) and Curtis Granderson (.276 BABIP in 09, .301 xBABIP in 09, .323 career BABIP) will be getting in the average department, they both should fall short of those hallowed numbers. Kemp just needs a few more fly balls to leave the yard, and with his increasing fly ball totals and HR/FB ratios, it doesn’t take much squinting to get him there.

Carlos Beltran doesn’t quite have the speed to join the top tier, but injury concerns aside, he’s pretty much the definition of the second tier. Before last year, he’d cleared 600 plate appearances for eight straight years, so he’s a decent bet as a value pick once the first two rounds are complete. Jacoby Ellsbury is in the news a lot these days, has more speed than anyone on the list, but also has very little power and may be destined for a new position. You could pick him if you are getting plus power from a position on the infield, though, and not miss a beat.

Josh Hamilton’s position in the tier may be the most tenuous. The injury concerns are real (469 average PAs over the last three years), and speed is probably not part of the package any more (20 stolen bases and 7 caught stealings career). I would definitely be tempted to wait on him and pick the surging Carlos Gonzalez instead. CarGo rode a .320/.384/.608 second half (with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases) into our collective consciousness. One of the main reasons for his effectiveness was that he cut down his strikeouts (23.2% in second half, 26% career), and we know he has the tools to continue producing should the refined approach continue. Bucs wunderkind Andrew McCutchen and O’s rising star Adam Jones help fill the Upside Tier, a trough that many knowledgeable readers will be dipping into next year. With Jones’ tiny walk rate (5.6% career) I just see a little more risk there. We’ve written extensively on B.J. Upton, who may yet have books written about him. Suffice it to say that his oscillating power (ISOs ranging from .046 to .209) and BABIPs (.312 to .399) make him risky.

The next tier we might as well call the “No-Power-All-Speed” tier. With his terrible 2008, of course there’s a reason to doubt Michael Bourn, but his walk rate, BABIP and line drive percentage all finally approached his minor league rates. He might have just found himself on the major league level finally, and he looks to have the best speed of this bunch. Otherwise, there’s not really much difference between Bourn, Nyjer Morgan and Rajai Davis. Take your pick.

The last tier is looking for redemption in some cases. Shane Victorino is being grounded slightly by his splits (.749 career OPS vs righties) but also by rumors that Placido Polanco will take his position in the lineup for reasons unclear. He still could provide tremendous value if he gets drafted at this tier position. It’s unclear why he stole fewer bases as his success rate (79.6%) and speed score (7.5) are still elite. Torii Hunter will get some love in the comments, perhaps, but his BABIP was at a nine-year high last year, and if his average drops, his 20/20 prowess looks a little less sexy. If batting average is not a concern, he’s a decent pickup late in the game. Vernon Wells just needs more space than we have here.

This position was deeper than I expected. Young players like Colby Rasmus, Dexter Fowler, and Franklin Gutierrez could all join the big boys with some steps forward in their games. All of them already make decent bench picks even in mixed leagues.