Archive for Tony Cingrani

The Mystifying Reds Rotation

The 2014 Reds rotation ranked third in ERA but just 23rd in WAR, which is a bit strange given that Cincinnati got more innings out of its starters than any other team. Alfredo Simon played a fairly large role in that discrepancy as he threw just shy of 200 innings with a 3.44 ERA but just 0.9 WAR. Simon’s low strikeout rate doesn’t exactly rack up WAR. If Mat Latos and/or Homer Bailey had been able to throw a full season’s worth of innings, the discrepancy surely would have been less pronounced.

The good news is that Simon will be staving off the regression monster elsewhere and Bailey will hopefully make at least 30 starts this year. The bad news is that Latos is gone and the Reds didn’t do much in the way of replacing Latos or Simon’s numbers. They’ll go with internal options, which isn’t assured to go wrong, but the back half of the rotation is iffy at best. Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Sleeper Candidates According to Steamer

Last week I ran the 2015 Steamer projections for starting pitchers through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared them to early NFBC ADP data to identify some possible bust candidates. Today we’ll look at some sleeper candidates.

Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds

After an impressive 100-ish inning debut in 2013, Cingrani struggled mightily last year. His season ended in mid-June after he was sent to the minors to work on his command, and he then revealed he had been dealing with a shoulder issue. Apparently he’s expected to come to Spring Training healthy and is a likely candidate for a rotation spot, but drafters aren’t buying a bounce back as his ADP among starters is 97. But Steamer does see a bounce back as he comes in 46th in the projection rankings. Read the rest of this entry »


Tony Cingrani’s Early-Frame Foul-Ups

On Wednesday, Tony Cingrani put forth another disappointing outing, the third of his in 2014 in which he failed to complete more than five innings. Two of those starts have come against the Chicago Cubs, for whatever that’s worth. He’s expended more than 20 per pitches per inning in each of those three semi-clunkers, and each has resulted in a sub-50 Game Score.

The fact that he might labor through some starts isn’t surprising. No one expects him to lead the league in quality starts. He’s allowed seven earned runs total in the first stanza, one in the second and four in the third in 2014. I figured I’d try to discern what the particular problem or set of problems is when the folks at “MLB Tonight” on MLB Network threw a graphic on the screen comprised of those tallies. Such exaggeration doesn’t seem to have existed in his splits last season, according to info from Baseball Reference.

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An Enviable Cincinnati Reds Rotation

Believe it or not, the Cincinnati Reds’ Starters contributed more total innings than any other National League rotation in 2013. In fact, there aren’t too many other teams with fewer question marks going into 2014 than the Reds, and that’s despite letting their #3 starter walk in free agency (or so it seems). The Reds, by my count, have a very solid four contributors in any fantasy format, and even though they play in one of the friendliest places to hit, you’d be pretty fortunate to have a pair of them on your squad headed into 2014.

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Cheap Starters: Options for Daily Leagues in Week Three

Chris Capuano | Los Angeles Dodgers | Home to San Diego on Tuesday

One man’s folly is another man’s fortune, right? Well the bizarre and unfortunate injury to Zack Greinke after the altercation with Carlos Quentin and the Padres gives Capuano the fifth spot in the Dodgers rotation. Had I been making decisions in LA, he might have had that spot this season to begin with.

Capuano is coming off two straight seasons in which he topped 180 innings and had an xFIP under 4.00. He displayed some serious skill in 2011 with an above average strikeout rate (21%), an above average walk rate (6.6%), and a solid xFIP of 3.60. Unfortunately he was a little unlucky with balls in play (.311 BABIP), and he let a few too many fly out of the park (1.31 HR/9) which led to a 4.55 ERA. But the next year he was basically luck-neutral (.284 BABIP, 1.13 HR/9), and his ERA fell to 3.72. His strikeout skills weren’t the same but were still slightly above average (19.8%), and his walk rate was equally good.

Capuano can obviously pitch, and I am glad to see him get the chance to start again, even if I wish it had come via less unfortunate circumstances. He’s got a good matchup at home against the Padres on Tuesday. He’s currently owned in just 2% of ESPN leagues. Read the rest of this entry »


NL Call-Ups: Five to Watch

Ah, September: that bizarre time of year where rosters expand, the disabled list disappears, benches swell, and all of a sudden managers have access to 16-man pitching staffs.

For the purposes of this article, we’ll only be looking at players who either have already been called up or who we can confirmed will be shortly, so if you’re wondering why Billy Hamilton & Oscar Taveras aren’t listed, that’s why.

Shelby Miller, RHP Cardinals

To merely glance at Miller’s 2012 stat line, you might think that the 2009 first-round draft pick had suffered through a disappointing year, one which would surely knock him off the top prospect lists. Sure, 160 strikeouts in 136 2/3 innings is impressive, but a 4.74 ERA (4.48 FIP) that was in large part due to a disturbingly high 1.58/9 home run rate – amid reports of maturity questions and declining velocity – can easily make you wonder, “well, what happened?”

It’s a little more complex than we have room to get into here, but the Miller of September 2012 bears little resemblance to the one who started the season, and that’s to be taken literally. A renewed commitment to conditioning and improved mechanics – Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has more on that here – allowed Miller to regain velocity and effectiveness, and the results were eye-catching. In 17 starts before the All-Star Break, Miller had a 6.17 ERA; in 10 starts after, it was just 2.88 along with a stellar 70/7 K/BB.

Miller is probably up only to soak in the atmosphere and perhaps get some time in out of the bullpen than he is to join the rotation, though it’s worth nothing that current #5 starter Joe Kelly pitched out of the bullpen last week and was hit hard in his most recent start. In keeper leagues, Miller is an obvious add.

Andrew Cashner, RHP Padres

Cashner started the season in the San Diego bullpen and made 27 appearances before being shifted into the rotation in June. He made just three starts before injured his lat and landing on the disabled list, and that’s the crux of the problem right there: when he left his third start after just two innings because of that lat, the main reaction was joy that he hadn’t blown out his arm. No one doubts Cashner’s talent, just his ability to stay healthy.

Cashner will get another shot when he starts on Friday against Arizona, and if he can stay upright he could get as many as four starts this month. The San Diego rotation is so tattered right now that when Andrew Werner started on Monday, the undrafted free agent who was in the independent leagues just two years ago was the 14th different starter to suit up for the Padres in 2012, so Cashner will get as long a look as possible with an eye towards 2013. The opportunity plus the talent – even if his fastball, which averaged 98.6 MPH this year, dips a little bit out of the bullpen – makes Cashner a worthwhile pickup in NL-only leagues and still intriguing in deeper mixed ones.

Tony Cingrani, LHP Reds

If you haven’t heard of Cingrani before, don’t feel too bad, because the 2011 draftee was a college senior, which is rarely where you’ll find the most touted prospects. Then you look at what he’s done so far in the minors this year – 172 strikeouts in 146 innings, even though his first ten starts came in the hitter-friendly California League – and suddenly you start to wonder why exactly you haven’t heard more about him. Cingrani’s future role is still up in the air, because despite being a starter in the pros, he was mainly a reliever in college for Rice, and isn’t likely to be considered for a start in September when he gets called up.

That might be for the best, since Cingrani brings a plus fastball while still working on his secondary pitches, and it’s not hard for Reds fans to drool at the thought of a Cincinnati bullpen that could add another power lefty to go with Aroldis Chapman & Sean Marshall. I consider him one of the more intriguing new names this September, though the lack of a clear role makes him interesting to NL-only leagues for now.

Xavier Nady, OF Giants

Who says a September callup has to be a highly-touted rookie? It’s been nearly 12 years since the 33-year-old Nady made his big-league debut, but it was only on September 1 that he made his first appearances with his hometown Giants after being cut by the Nationals in June. Of course, the last part of that sentence is a huge red flag, because Nady hasn’t really had a good season since 2008. Still, the Giants have a big, Melky-sized hole in the outfield to fill, and Gregor Blanco isn’t getting the job done. For opportunity alone, Nady has to be considered in NL-only leagues, but despite doubles in each of his first two games… he’s still Xavier Nady. I hope you’re not that desperate.

A.J. Ramos, RHP Marlins

Ramos, a 21st round pick out of Texas Tech in 2009, has been the closer for each of his three full seasons in the minor leagues, moving up a level at a time. While we should know by now that you can’t scout a minor league stat line, the numbers remain impressive, with 288 strikeouts in 211.1 career innings and only eight homers allowed. Better, his control appears to be improving, as a walk rate which was 4.9/9 in 2010 and 3.4 in 2011 is down to just 2.8 this year. Ramos will be 26 this month, which makes him old for his level and may explain some of the impressive stats. Still, the Miami bullpen seems to be constantly in a state of flux, and it’s not hard to see him getting a chance to show his stuff as a lost season slips further away for the Marlins.