Archive for Steve Pearce

Check out last month’s rankings here.

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No more bland, rote tiers from this guy! Thanks to the urging of commenter “Urban Shocker,” my eyes are now open to the fun that can be had with ridiculously labeled tiers. You see, I used to just write these monthly second-base columns with boring old numbered tiers. That is, until Urban Shocker convinced me in the comments section of my April rankings to name my tiers from then on.

To be perfectly honest, the task of doing these monthly rankings can get rather stale — for both me and you — as the season wears on. Eventually, it gets to the point where the rankings barely change, because 30-day samples don’t substantially change the way I/we think about a certain player.

Furthermore, there’s only so many ways I can say “Jose Altuve had a good month again,” or “Dee Gordon steals lots of bases,” or “Holy crap, Dan Uggla is so incredibly terrible!” (Actually, never mind on that last one. I will never get sick of making jokes about Uggla, who got paid $13 million last year to post a weighted offense 72% below league-average.)

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The days of highway robbery early-season trades are a thing of the past, but it’s rarely too early to kick the tires on making trades. I’ve identified a five players who make for strong trade targets — depending on league type and settings, obviously. A pair of sluggers who could be had at a discount are joined by a white-hot hitting veteran and a couple of right-handed pitchers with varying degrees of success thus far. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday I looked at bust candidates according to the 2015 Steamer projections. I ran the projections through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and then compared the rankings at each position to early ADP data from NFBC drafts. Today we’ll look at a sleeper candidate from each position. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, Jeff Zimmerman presented Early 2015 Hitter Projections using Steamer and/or ZIPS averaged ROS projections. The main contingency at this time: all values are set to 600 plate appearances. If I had all the time in the world, I would go through the list and manually adjust the PA based on lineup position, career PA/G, etc, but I’m not that much of a Mensch.

The next day, Mike Podhorzer highlighted some of the surprises ranked in the top 30. Again the 600 PA contingency is clear as Rajai Davis, Jarrod Dyson and Corey Dickerson make the list although if Dickerson doesn’t get platooned, I (and Mike) think he’ll surpass expectations. His splits page tells us there is no good reason to platoon him.

In Mike’s intro, he also referenced that there is no adjustment for position in Jeff’s SGP rankings. That’s where this post comes in.

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There comes a time in a season when you’re willing to give run to some players whom you wouldn’t, ordinarily. This is probably that time. You take a stab at help in a category in which a couple of them might make a world of difference. You pick up a player who has had a negative fantasy impact since he made his debut. Either of those kinds of plays isn’t your first choice, but it doesn’t make it a bad choice. You’re just open to ideas and possibilities, and you’ll take a win however you can get it. Read the rest of this entry »

Pittsburgh Pirates placed 1B Steve Pearce (ankle) on the DL; recalled UTIL Neil Walker from Triple-A Indianapolis.

The ankle injury is a tough break for Pearce, as the 27-year-old was beginning to get some big league playing time with Jeff Clement (.235 wOBA) flailing at the plate. Still, Pearce is basically a first base-only player who likely doesn’t have the bat to hold the position. The Pirates experimented with him in the outfield, but the 5-11, 200 pounder doesn’t cover much ground. The former South Carolina Gamecock owns a career .281/.354/.482 triple-slash at the Triple-A level, and his ZiPS projection (.269/.336/.455, .345 wOBA) is a little light for first base. He’s the new Chris Shelton.

Walker, meanwhile, is trying to revive his prospect status after all but falling off the map. The 11th overall pick in the 2004 draft began his career as a catcher, but was shifted to third base prior to the 2007 season. The 6-3, 215 pound switch-hitter turned in modestly productive offensive numbers in A-Ball, given that he was behind the dish at that point:

Low-A South Atlantic League (2005): .301/.332/.452, 3.9 BB%, 15.7 K%, .151 ISO
High-A Carolina League (2005-2006): .281/.331/.402, 5.6 BB%, 17.3 K%, .121 ISO

Baseball America ranked Walker as the #81 prospect in the game prior to 2005, #43 before 2006 and #74 leading up to the 2007 season. Before ’07, BA said that Walker’s power was muted in 2006 by a surgically repaired left wrist, but claimed he had “the potential to hit 30 home runs a season.” They did caution that he lack of patience could become an issue in the upper levels of the minors, and that Walker’s D behind the dish was a work in progress. “The Pirates might get more long-term production out of him,” BA said, “by shifting him to another position, and he has the athleticism to handle third base or the outfield.”

In ’07, the Bucs did move Walker to the hot corner, and he batted .277/.349/.434 in a season spent mostly at Double-A Altoona. His power improved somewhat (.157 ISO), and happily, he stopped hacking so much. Walker walked in 9.8 percent of his plate appearances, whiffing 17.4 percent. Baseball America again named him a top 100 prospect, placing him at #61 before the 2008 season.

The next two years of Walker’s career wouldn’t be nearly as sunny. At Triple-A Indianapolis, he batted .242/.280/.414 in 2008 and .264/.311/.480 in 2009. Walker popped some extra-base hits, with a .172 ISO in ’08 and a .216 ISO in ’09, but his plate approach was lousy. He drew ball four just 5.3% and struck out 20.2% in ’08. In ’09, he walked 6.7% and K’d 15.4%. Walker also missed time last year with a sprained knee and a broken pinky. The Pittsburgh native made his big league debut last September, but it was with considerably lower expectations than when the Pirates called his name back in 2004.

Prior to 2010, BA ranked the perennial top-100 prospect as just the 26th-best farm talent in Pittsburgh’s system. His scouting report was blunt: “he undermines his offensive potential by lacking plate discipline…Walker has expressed a willingness to become a super-utility player.” That, said BA, “may be his ticket to having a big league career of any length.”

With Indy this season, Walker has roamed around the diamond. He has logged time at first, second and third base, while also manning left field. He put up a .321/.392/.560 line in 189 PA. A .360+ BABIP certainly helped, but Walker posted a .239 ISO, walked 10.1 percent of the time and whiffed 18.5 percent.

ZiPS projects Walker to bat .259/.304/.439, with a .325 wOBA. His future in Pittsburgh remains hazy, though — Pedro Alvarez is going to man one of the infield corners in short order. And While Andy LaRoche will never be a star-caliber talent, he did post a 2.6 WAR season in 2009. If Alvarez takes over at third, LaRoche could be shifted to second base. Should Pedro play first, Walker could enter the picture at the keystone spot. The outfield corners are a possibility as well.

For now, Walker will get a little PT at third while LaRoche rests his achy back. Walker, 24, is no longer a top prospect. However, his position versatility and power make him a good bet to at least have a long career as a super-utility type.

I’ll do one shallow league guy just because he’s heating up and I’ve seen him on some wires, but then it’s back to the deep leagues of course. This triptych of ineptitude may leave you with a bad taste in your mouth, but there’s utility here despite their warts.

Nate McLouth | OF | Braves (50% owned)
It’s a mixed bag with McLouth, who was already behind the eight ball in leagues that count batting average. Since swing rates stabilize first, we’ll take a look there – and find the numbers going in different directions. Overall, he’s swinging a lot less this year (34.7%) than in his career overall (40.1%), but it’s hard to say that’s a negative right off the bat. Swinging less could, for example, lead to more selectivity and more walks. Accordingly, McLouth is reaching less (20.4%) than he has in his career (21.2%), and walking at a career high rate (14.3%). And that’s good. What’s bad is that his contact rate is down (81.3% this year, 85.4% career). In any case, more contextual clues lead to some hope. A week ago, McLouth had been dropped to 8th in the order and wasn’t playing against lefties. Though 478 at-bats against lefties is hardly an opus, his .702 OPS against lefties is close to a disasterpiece. Count it as hope that McLouth has been moved back to leadoff against righties, and you’ll get yourself a lifetime .818 OPS hitter against that hand. As long as you have daily lineups, and can wait for righties, he’s a good pickup.

Delmon Young | OF | Twins (15% owned)
Yes, I know. Hold your nose. Young is not the dynamic star that was once prognosticated for him. He’s very flawed. He doesn’t have much power. But this isn’t to say that he hasn’t improved. In fact, his swing profile includes some improvement in virtually every category. For such a wild swinger, swinging less has to be a positive – and Young is swinging less (54.7% this year, 61.2% career). He’s reaching at a career-low rate (36.8%), and this improvement is particularly informative because it’s part of a trend. He’s improved his reach rate in every season in the bigs. The best news is that his contact rate is up big (79.9% this year, 75.3% career) at the same time. He still swings at bad pitches too often, and his power is just barely above average, but there’s a good chance that he retains the gains he’s made in the early going. Though it’s not yet significant, it’s nice to note that he’s sporting a career high in flyball rate right now, and a .290/20/10 season is not out of reach. The hardest part will be following the lineups to make sure he’s playing.

Steve Pearce | 1B | Pittsburgh (0% owned)
Is another major league team about to give up on Jeff Clement? When is a good time to cut your losses and give up on a player? Did the Pirates already give up on Pearce before Clement? These are all good questions that won’t be answered here. Instead, we’ll just report that Pearce was recalled today and is on the major league roster. Though he’s shown a platoon split in the major leagues (.920 OPS versus lefties, .607 vs righties), those have come in a mere 378 plate appearances total. The same split is not as pronounced in the minors (.929 vs lefties, .871 vs righties) and virtually disappeared in his hot 2010 start (.353/.456/.612 overall). Maybe he’ll get some starts at first base against lefties, or maybe he’ll steal some time from the scuffling Lastings Milledge. It’s worth stowing a guy with a .889 career minor league OPS in about 2000 at-bats, especially when he’s just turned 27 and has a fire under his behind.

Ownership rates courtesy Yahoo Fantasy Sports.