Archive for ryan franklin

When playing typical fantasy baseball, the main thing that fantasy managers typically worry about regarding relievers is one thing: jobs.  If a reliever is a closer, he has value.  If not, they generally are considered to have very little value except in very deep leagues.

In FanGraphs Points leagues, however, a reliever’s job means a bit less, because saves (worth 5 points apiece) are worth only marginally more than a hold (4 points).  With that in mind, I think it’s interesting to take a look at reliever rankings without worrying about jobs.  In a sense, what we’re talking about are “true talent” projections for relievers, but still including things like park factors that do matter for fantasy comparisons.  If you have an estimate of a pitcher’s true talent, you may be able to find that cheap bargain pitcher who will outperform bad relievers with jobs.  And in all likelihood, the best pitchers would be expected to be among the first to take on the closer role once it becomes available.

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With all the hubub surrounding two nice prospects getting their first licks in the major leagues, let’s not neglect the waiver wire. We all need a little waiver love, and almost none of us have a certain Nationals pitcher on our wire. Instead, let’s look at a couple players that should almost definitely be on your waiver wire today.

Jason Motte, St. Louis (2%)
Okay, maybe if your league counts holds, Motte won’t be available. Then again, he only has four holds on the season, and he probably won’t be closing any time soon unless Ryan Franklin goes down with a (possibly beard-related?) injury. But it’s worth pointing out that Motte has finally harnessed some of his raw power and is pitching the best ball of his career. Coming up through the system, we all knew this converted catcher had gas (95.9 MPH fastball career), but there were questions about his secondary stuff. Questions like: Does he even have another pitch? Well, he’s still throwing the fastball over 70% of the time, so he does like to bring the heat. And he’s gone into extended periods of focusing on the secondary stuff and then forgetting about it. But he’s finally throwing the curveball regularly (10.2% this year), and though linear weights don’t love the pitch yet (-1.1 runs this year), obviously something is working in the overall package. On June 6th, he gave his first run in 9 and 2/3 innings, and during that ten-game stretch, he had a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It’s that nice walk rate (2.31), combined with his booming fastball and developing curve, that makes him an interesting ratios and strikeouts reliever on teams in deeper leagues. Especially if you’re over your innings pace already.

Milton Bradley, Seattle (4% owned)
Yeah, I know. Groan. He’s struggling through a .274 wOBA, 67 wRC+ kind of season. He’s striking out at a career-worst rate (31.4%) and walking at a career-low rate (7.8%). His ISO is his worst since he was in Montreal, and we can’t even blame his BABIP (.283) much. He’s seeing a sports psychologist, and he’s a risk to leave the team at any time. In some ways, there couldn’t be a worse candidate for your fantasy team. All of that is true, and there is very little silver lining. One okay factor is that he still has an average-ish line drive rate (18.3%), and another is that at 32 years old and of above-average athleticism, he’s not so old that we would expect a drop off this precipitous. But the final, most important piece of information regarding Bradley is this: He’s playing. Every day. Even in an 18-team, 5-OF league, all 90 starting outfielders in baseball are relevant, and leagues come deeper than this. Put him on your bench if you can because warm, starting, bodies are valuable if your league is deep enough. Then all you can do is hope he recovers some of his old form. (Hey, the psychologist thing really “worked” for John Smoltz.)

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Since it is turkey day, I figured I’d give thanks to things throughout the fantasy world from last season and the upcoming one.

I’m thankful for…Brandon Webb getting hurt last year. Even though it ruined one of my teams, he will slip past his healthy value allowing owners to snatch him up and hope he’s healthy.

I’m thankful for…Victor Martinez being traded to the Red Sox. With a good lineup around him, it’s hard to imagine the RBI numbers that might show up in the box score next season. If they can add a decent hitting corner infielder, it will be even better.

I’m thankful for…Russell Branyan’s back issues. It may seem cruel that I’m happy about players are getting hurt, but it’s hard not to be. His back slowed him for a couple months, bringing his total numbers down and forcing owners to forget about his hot start a bit. While he won’t be a sleeper again, he may go a round or two later than he should.

I’m thankful for…Luke Scott. Scott’s power streak after coming off of an injury carried my team for a couple weeks. Not bad for a waiver wire pickup.

I’m thankful for…Ryan Franklin’s beard, and saves. Owners will ignore the fluky BABIP and lack of K’s and draft him far too early next year. I’m staying away, thank you very much (see what I did there?).

I’m thankful for…B.J. Upton’s bad 2009. He won’t hit .241 again, I promise. Because he still stole 42 bases, he won’t have sleeper status, but he will be undervalued.

I’m thankful for…Nick Johnson’s healthy ’09. I had Johnson in an OBP league, hoping he’d stay healthy and for once he did. Interested to see where he lands in free agency.

I’m thankful for…Mark Reynolds‘ low batting average. Someone is going to say “no thanks” when they glance at his .260 avg, but I’m more than happy with 40+ jacks and 20+ steals from my third baseman.

I’m thankful for…Curtis Granderson’s struggles against southpaws. Like Reynolds, Grandy’s .249 avg is going to scare other owners off. Dig deeper, and you’ll see he hit .275/.358/.539 with 28 of his 30 homers against right handers. If you’re smart enough to check your matchups and only play Grandy versus righties, he’s extremely valuable.

All that being said, what are you thankful for?

There are two baseball games already underway and another 10 on tap for tonight. Let’s hit some fantasy links as the season rolls on…

Getting amped for September call-up season? So are we, and so are others. Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com thinks Cameron Maybin’s defense could earn him some playing time in Florida’s crowded outfield down the stretch. Maybin has been a disappointment on the major league level thus far, but, as Saponara notes, there’s reason to think he could steal a few bases in September.

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse thinks the Diamondbacks may roll with a closer-by-committee in the wake of Chad Qualls‘ knee injury, with Juan Gutierrez getting most of the chances and a combination of Clay Zavada and Esmerling Vasquez filling in the gaps. “You may want to avoid the Diamondbacks closer situation all together,” Bardeen writes, “and grab either Mike MacDougal or Leo Nunez from the waiver wire.” Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Sports calls Gutierrez “the add,” noting that he averages a closer-like 94.9 MPH average velocity on his fastball.

Bardeen also takes a quick look at the fantastic (and vastly underrated) season that Angels first baseman Kendry Morales is piecing together. The Halos deserve a pat on the back for pulling out of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes last winter and going with the 26-year-old Morales. A .283/.331/.509 career hitter, he is batting .311/.355/.593 this season.

Rotoworld’s Aaron Gleeman believes Zack Greinke is headed for his first Cy Young Award. As Gleeman notes, “He leads the AL with a 2.32 ERA, six complete games, three shutouts, and a 1.08 WHIP while ranking behind only Justin Verlander with 202 strikeouts and second to only CC Sabathia with 190.1 innings.” Even with his lack of win potential, Greinke remains a top fantasy arm down the stretch.

Grey over at Razzball ranks MLB’s closers in tier format. His top dogs for the home stretch? The Twins’ Joe Nathan, the Yankees’ Mariano Rivera, Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon, the Mets’ Francisco Rodriguez and the Dodgers’ Jonathan Broxton. The Cardinals’ Ryan Franklin heads his second group of ninth-inning stoppers.

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