Archive for Ryan Dempster

Predicting the future performance of baseball players is a wildly frustrating endeavor. When projecting a hitter’s stat line, it’s impossible to account for the player having a BABIP that’s nowhere close to their career average. When projecting a pitcher, it’s hard to know when their HR/FB rate is going to swing drastically away from their career average. The shifts in “luck” make projecting seem like a fool’s errand at times.

But it may be even more frustrating when something within the player’s control changes completely. When predicting the future, you largely have to rely on the assumption that what the player puts into the equation will remain relatively the same. But of course that’s not the case. Hitters will lose plate discipline out of nowhere. Pitchers will lose the ability to induce swings and misses. It just happens. But it’s often very hard to know when those changes are going to happen.

Another example of the input changing is a shift in the mix of pitches a pitcher will use. Read the rest of this entry »

Starting pitching wasn’t a bright spot for the Boston Red Sox in 2012. Nine different arms toed the rubber as a Red Sox starter last season and as a whole, the club managed just a 121 ERA-, finishing 25th in baseball. The conversion of Daniel Bard as a starter never got off the ground, Daisuke Matsuzaka finished with an ERA higher than his K/9, and their former ace Josh Beckett finshed as a Dodger. Despite all of this, there’s actually reasons for some optimism in Boston’s rotation as they have several starters who ought to merit your fantasy consideration entering 2013.

Read the rest of this entry »

For as far back as I could remember,even before I was bitten by the fantasy bug, the MLB trade deadline was one of the most exciting times of the year. Hearing the rumors, listening intently as deals are announced and just the general wheeling and dealing that takes place as the year’s haves and have nots make arrangements for their respective futures. The experience has intensified over the years as the game has evolved, contracts have become what they are and free agency has taken center stage. And of course, now that I am neck deep in the fantasy racket, it has taken on a whole new life. But sometimes, this euphoric time of year that I long for each summer, can get awfully stressful and if the scales of justice are tipping one way and not the other, I find myself saddened and depressed as my favorite time of year just came up and kicked me in the groin. Read the rest of this entry »

Usually we have two columns on two-start pitchers but circumstances beyond my control made the Friday column impossible. So, this week there will be just the Sunday one. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 21.

Fausto Carmona – The overall numbers for Carmona are pretty uninspiring (6-12, 4.89) but in his last seven games he has pitched much better. Carmona’s ERA has dropped a full run in that span, as he has a 2.51 ERA over his last 43 IP. Carmona has had very good control this year and recently he’s kept his HR in check, too. He allowed 15 HR in 104.1 IP before the All-Star break and 4 in 41.0 IP here in the second half. This week he goes up against SEA and KC, two teams that are below average in hitting homers. Get Carmona into you lineup this week.

Bartolo Colon – After he was roughed up by the Blue Jays in his first start in the second half, many began to wonder if the clock had struck midnight on Colon’s surprising comeback season. But Colon bounced back with a 3.71 ERA over his last six starts, with 10 BB and 28 Ks in 34 IP. He’s got a fairly normal .314 BABIP in this span, too. He faces BAL and OAK this week, two teams that are a combined 31 games under .500 this season. He should be active this week.

Ryan Dempster – In his last four games, Dempster is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA. But unlike Colon, he’s done that with a .242 BABIP. Batters have hit 27 fly balls in this span and have 2 HR. Prior to this stretch, Dempster allowed 14 HR on 124 fly balls. Dempster has a home game against the Braves, who have won 12 of their last 16 games, and then a road start in Milwaukee, where the Brewers are second in the NL with 78 HR at home and have a 47-16 mark at Miller Field. Give Dempster a spot on the bench this week.

Ricky Nolasco – It’s hard to imagine worse possible matchups for a starting pitcher in the NL, as Nolasco squares off against ERA leader Johnny Cueto in his first start and gets Wins leader Roy Halladay in his second outing. And in his last start, Nolasco allowed 11 H and 11 ER in 3 IP. For the clincher, Nolasco is not piling up strikeouts like he has in the past, as he has a pedestrian 20 Ks in his last 31.2 IP. Put him on your bench this week.

Bud Norris – In the first half of the season, Norris surrendered 11 HR in 112 IP. In the second half he’s given up 8 HR in 40 IP. Additionally, his K/9 has dropped from 9.1 to 7.2 in the same span. Norris has a start in COL this week, never a good thing for a pitcher struggling with the gopher ball and one who gives up more fly balls than grounders. If you have the depth, give Norris a week on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 21 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Greinke, Cain, Carpenter, Kennedy, Cueto, Wilson, Price, Masterson, Morrow, Lewis, Chacin, Niemann, Jurrjens, Lohse, Zimmermann, Bedard, Niese, Kartends, Lackey, Saunders, Myers, Duensing, Vargas, Pavano, McCarthy, Eovaldi, Chen, Guthrie, Penny, Britton, Detwiler, Coleman.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 19 pitchers and how they fared.

Cecil – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 0.786 WHIP, 14 IP, 7 ER
Garza – Advised to start. 14 Ks, 4.09 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 11 IP, 5 ER
Harrison – Advised to start. W, 12 Ks, 4.38 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 6 ER
Hudson – Advised to start. W, 5 Ks, 4.91 ERA, 1.909 WHIP, 12 IP, 8 ER
Masterson – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 3.72 ERA, 1.138 WHIP, 9.2 IP, 4 ER

The 2011 season has been a high-priced train wreck for the Chicago Cubs. Despite having the sixth-highest opening day payroll among major league clubs, the North Siders own the second-worst record in the game at 27-40. The Cubs are highly unlikely to join the 2008 Seattle Mariners as baseball’s second team to rack up 100 losses with a payroll exceeding $100 million — that would require them to win at a .368 clip or less from here on out — but it figures to be a somber summer in Wrigleyville.

At first blush, Ryan Dempster looks like yet another well-paid underachiever. The 34-year-old righty, pulling down nearly $14 million, has a 5.48 ERA in 15 starts this season. Dempster is on less than half of ESPN players’ fantasy rosters (46 percent), and about two-thirds of Yahoo rosters (67 percent).

Is the starter-turned-reliever-turned-starter finished? Not hardly. The current version of Dempster might not be quite as dominant as the guy who averaged over four Wins Above Replacement per season from 2008-2010, but he’s still well worth owning in all leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

Now that fantasy leagues are back on a 7-day week schedule, it’s time to take our first look at upcoming two-start pitchers. Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 2.

Mark Buehrle – After opening the season with two poor road outings, Buehrle has home starts this week against the A’s and Angels. From 2008-10, the veteran Buehrle has been 26-14 at home compared to 15-21 on the road. Earlier in his career, Buehrle was all over the map as far as performance. However, he has become a reliable hurler the past few years. While he may not strike out more batters for you than a middle reliever this week, he should post respectable ERA and WHIP numbers and has a chance to post two Wins. Make sure he is active in your lineup.

Kevin Correia – After posting a 5.40 ERA in 2010 while playing half his games in Petco Park, few had high hopes for Correia this year in Pittsburgh. But he starts the year off with Wins in his first two games and a nifty 1.38 ERA, putting him on the radar of fantasy players everywhere. But don’t be fooled. Correia has a 4.86 xFIP, much closer to his 4.45 career rate in the category. With games against the Brewers and Reds, look for Correia’s ERA to balloon and do not add or start him if you can help it.

Ryan Dempster – When you drafted Dempster you imagined him as a guy you put in the lineup each week and did not worry about his roster spot. And generally that’s true, although you might want to investigate alternatives this week. Dempster has road starts in Colorado and in Houston, two parks which are hitter-friendly and in which he has struggled recently. Lifetime Dempster is 3-7 in Minute Maid Park and he is 1-3 with an 11.35 ERA in Coors Field. Combined with his rough start to open the season, it looks like a good time to give him a week off if you can.

Kyle McClellan – After 202 appearances in the majors as a reliever, McClellan made his first start this year, as he moved into the rotation to take over for the injured Adam Wainwright. McClellan showed strong peripherals in his time in the bullpen and carried that over to his first start, as he allowed six hits in six innings while walking one and fanning seven. The matchups are not overly favorable to McClellan this week, with road starts in Arizona and Los Angeles. But both of those clubs have struggled some offensively out of the gate and are in the bottom half of the league in runs per game. He’s a good waiver pickup if he is available in your league and if he is already on your roster you should consider giving him a start this week.

Esmil Rogers – During his brief time in the majors, Rogers has put up some ugly ERAs but has gotten strikeouts and ground balls, two things which bode well for his future performance. He continued with that combination in his first outing of 2011, with 7 Ks and 11 ground balls in 7.1 IP. Rogers was hurt last year in the majors due to his .385 BABIP, a figure that should heavily regresses in 2011. Rogers has decent control and his high ground ball rates help keep his gopher ball totals low. Combined with the strikeouts that is a pretty nice package for a guy likely on the waiver wire. Go out and grab him and do not be afraid to start him this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 2 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Kershaw, Carpenter, Haren, Hanson, Billingsley, Marcum, Volquez, Myers, Hellickson, Stauffer, Niese, Braden, Pelfrey, Latos, Blanton, Hammel, L. Hernandez, Volstad, Enright, Figueroa.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Here is the latest update to Week Eight 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

SFG – Tim Lincecum
STL – Adam Wainwright
LAD – Clayton Kershaw
CHC – Ryan Dempster

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Jaime Garcia
CHC – Tom Gorzelanny
SFG – Todd Wellemeyer
LAD – Ramon Ortiz

Lincecum’s velocity is down nearly three miles per hour from 2008 but he has career highs in K/9 (11.01), GB% (48.3), O-Swing% (31.2) and SwStr% (13.4). Not surprisingly, Lincecum also has a career-best 2.35 ERA. Both his FIP and xFIP are slightly higher, but his FIP (2.50) ranks second in the majors while his xFIP (2.72) is the lowest. However, in his last outing Lincecum allowed 5 ER and 5 BB in a no-decision on the road against the Diamondbacks.

In his past four seasons, Wainwright has posted HR/FB rates in single digits. But this year’s mark of 3.6 percent has led to an xFIP a full run above his 2.49 ERA. Regardless, Wainwright is one of the elite pitchers in the game. He uses both a curve and slider effectively and combines a high strikeout rate with a high ground ball rate. Add it all up and Wainwright has thrown a Quality Start in eight of his nine appearances this season.

After getting roughed up in a start against the Brewers, Kershaw has been on fire. In three starts covering 22.1 IP, he has allowed 12 H, 2 ER, 7 BB and has 23 Ks. For the season, Kershaw has a 10.02 K/9 but has really struggled with his walks. His 5.26 BB/9 is the second-worst mark in the league. Kershaw also has a very low 5.6 HR/FB rate, which has led to an xFIP almost a full run above his 3.23 ERA.

Always a good strikeout pitcher, Dempster’s 8.33 K/9 is the highest mark he has ever posted as a starting pitcher. But even with that strikeout rate, a solid GB rate and a .252 BABIP, Dempster is just 2-4 on the season. Last time out he snapped a stretch of four straight losses with a no-decision. Dempster’s HR/FB rate is 11.9% but he has served up 7 HR in his last five games.

Here is the latest update to Week 17 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

WSX – Buehrle
CUB – Dempster
MIL – Dillard
WSN – Balester

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CUB – Harden
BAL – Hill
MIL – Burns
KCR – Chen

Buehrle can be forgiven for wondering what a fellow has to do to get in a fantasy lineup. He is 11-3 and in his last start he pitched a perfect game. Yet at press time he was starting in only 78 percent of CBS Sports leagues, with 16 two-start pitchers this week having a higher percentage. For what it is worth, Buehrle’s FIP is 4.21 compared to a 3.28 ERA this season.

Dempster is slated to be activated this week in time for a Tuesday start against Houston. Dempster has been out with a broken toe. Prior to the injury, Dempster was struggling to match last year’s output, as he allowed more home runs and had a lower strand rate than a season ago. However, Dempster had been on a roll, with Quality Starts in six of his last seven outings before the injury.

Dillard returned to the rotation after spending all of last season as a reliever. He posted an impressive 10-4 mark in Triple-A but posted only a 3.36 K/9 ratio. A fastball-slider pitcher with little room for error, fantasy owners should not rush out to add him to their squad.

Balester can dial it up to the mid 90s with his fastball and he has a plus pitch with his curve. But he has had trouble parlaying that into success in his limited exposure to the majors. Balester was 7-9 with a 4.35 ERA in Triple-A this year and in his only start with the Nationals he gave up three runs (two earned) in three-plus innings.

Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ANA – Lackey
TB – Shields
WSX – Buehrle
CUB – Dempster
ARZ – D. Davis
SEA – Bedard
OAK – Braden
TEX – Padilla
STL – Wellemeyer
OAK – B. Anderson
TOR – Mills

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TB – Garza
LAD – Kuroda
WSX – Contreras
SEA – Vargas
OAK – G. Gonzalez
TEX – Holland

Lackey has a career high .337 BABIP and a career low 69 percent strand rate. But he has gone seven or more innings in seven of his last eight starts and has two home starts this week.

Shields also gets two home starts this week. He has 4 W and a 3.18 ERA at Tropicana Field this year. He has very similar rate stats to a year ago but in 2008 he averaged 4.92 runs per game and went 14-8. This year he receives 4.11 runs per game and his record is 6-6.

Buehrle has a .260 BABIP and a 78.4 percent strand rate. That’s led to a 4.09 FIP compared to a 3.09 ERA and an overall record of 8-2 despite HR, SO and BB rates the same or worse as last year’s 15-12, 3.79 ERA season.

Dempster has been unable to repeat the magic from his 2008 season. He is still performing at better than his career averages in most metrics but the 32-year old is a .500 pitcher. His fastball, which was such a good pitch for him last year, checks in at -10.4 according to Pitch Type Values.

Davis gets two home starts which is normally a good thing. But the big lefty is just 1-5 in Chase Field this year, where he has allowed eight of his 11 home runs.

Bedard is slated to return on Tuesday after missing a month with a sore shoulder. He threw a simulated game on Friday and Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu was impressed with the results of the 54-pitch outing.

Braden has gone at least five innings in each of his 17 games this season. He changes speeds, keeps the ball in the park (0.59 HR/9) and does not hurt himself with walks (2.37 BB/9). Braden’s best pitch is his changeup, which has an average speed over 15 mph slower than his fastball and one that checks in with a 7.8 Pitch Type Value.

Padilla is throwing as hard as ever but has the worst strikeout rate of his career. He has a career average of 6.15 SO/9 and last season posted a 6.68 rate. But in 2009 it is down to a 4.86 mark.

Wellemeyer has a .336 BABIP and it is lefty batters doing most of the damage. LHB have a .342/.417/.595 mark against him this year. Batting against Wellemeyer turns the average lefty batter into Prince Fielder. But oddly enough, Fielder has a .200/.333/.200 line against Wellemeyer this season in six at-bats.

Anderson averages 91.8 mph with his fastball but his slider is his best pitch. Anderson throws his slider 31 percent of the time, which would be the sixth-highest figure in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify.

Mills has had good strikeout numbers throughout the minors and in his brief major league career. But he is hardly overpowering, instead he features a changeup as his strikeout pitch. Mills allowed a 43.5 percent fly ball rate at Dunedin last year and it was 48.3 percent when he was promoted to New Hampshire. This year in his brief tenure with Toronto, he has a 74.1 percent fly ball rate.

In a season rife with unexpected twists and turns, Ryan Dempster’s transformation from sufficient reliever to rotation stalwart might have been the biggest surprise. Prior to 2008, Dempster had not made more than twenty starts since his last season in Cincinnati (2003), and the results were disastrous back then: A 6.54 ERA, 134 hits and 14 home runs surrendered in 115.2 innings pitched. Dempster’s lowest Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) as a starter was 4.35, all the way back in 2000 as a member of the Florida Marlins. And, to top it all off, Dempster had posted a FIP ERA over four as a reliever for the Cubs over the 2006 and 2007 seasons combined, and failed to crack a 2/1 K/BB ratio in any of his four seasons in the Chicago bullpen between 2004 and 2007.

Despite the laundry list of reasons as to why “Dempster the starter” seemed like a dubious proposition, the Cubs went ahead with the plan, and were rewarded with one of the better pitching performances in the National League. In 206.2 innings, Dempster struck out 8.14 batters per nine innings, and kept his walks at an adequate level (3.31 BB/9), something he has struggled to do in the past (career BB/9 of 4.47). Dempster’s 2.46 K/BB ratio was the highest of his career, and was actually only the second time that he has surpassed that 2/1 mark (2000 being the other year).

However, his 2.96 ERA overstates his case by about a half a run, as Dempster’s FIP ERA was 3.41. That dichotomy is the product of a low home run/flyball rate (HR/FB%) of 7.7%. HR/FB rates tend to stabilize around 11-12% for pitchers, so expect that number to regress going forward. As that HR/FB rate ticks up, so will Dempster’s 0.61 HR/9.

Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, we can get a more accurate read on Dempster’s performance. XFIP is perhaps the best way to gauge of a pitcher’s controllable skills, as it uses strikeouts, walks and an average HR/FB rate to calculate ERA. By doing so, XFIP eliminates lucky or unlucky performances on flyballs. So, Dempster’s auspicious HR/FB rate is regressed, giving us a better indication of his actual performance. If we adjust for the home run luck, Dempster’s XFIP ERA comes in at 3.94. That figure ranked 11th among NL starters.

Is Dempster’s 2008 showing a sign of things to come, or just an aberrant, blip-on-the-radar season? As we have seen, Dempster’s performance was quite good, but not sub-three ERA good. But can Dempster be expected to keep an ERA in the high three’s to low four’s during the course of his new four-year, $52 million contract?

Ordinarily, one would have every reason to be highly skeptical of a 31 year-old with a mild track record of success, a pitcher who last performed well in the rotation at the advent of the new millennium. However, Dempster does have some things working for him on a scouting level, as his repertoire played differently in the starting five than it did out of the bullpen.

Using Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog, we can compare Dempster’s stuff out of the ‘pen in 2007 to what he threw as a starter in 2008.

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

2007

Fastball: -7.21 X, 8.15 Z
Slider: 0.16 X, 0.81 Z
Changeup: -7.13 X, 5.71 Z

Dempster’s fastball had a good deal of tailing movement in on right-handers (-7.21 X), but his slider and changeup weren’t especially reliable. His slider did not register much horizontal break away from righties. His changeup did a nice job of mirroring his fastball in terms of horizontal movement, but the difference in vertical movement between the two pitches was just 2.44 inches. That’s not a whole lot, especially considering that his fastball (92 MPH) and change (83.1) had less than a 9 MPH dichotomy in velocity.

2008

Fastball: -6.72 X, 8.26 Z
Slider: 1.23 X, 0.08 Z
Changeup: -6.95 X, 3.75 Z

Dempster’s fastball registered similar horizontal and vertical break, but the quality of his secondary pitches increased. Dempster’s slider broke over an inch more away from righties this past season, while also showing a little more dropping action in the zone. Dempster’s changeup continued to mirror his heater in terms of horizontal movement, but the difference in vertical break between the two pitches improved. Dempster’s change dropped in the zone 4.51 inches more than his fastball did, almost doubling the difference from 2007. When commentators talk about a pitcher “pulling the string” on a changeup, this is what they are referring to. With similar horizontal break but a pronounced drop in vertical movement, hitters gear up for the fastball, get the changeup, and swing over top of the pitch.

Will Dempster’s improved secondary stuff allow him to keep most of the gains that he made during the 2008 season? The Marcel projection system seems to think so, forecasting Dempster for a 3.70 ERA, 7.77 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9 in 2009. It’s important to keep in mind that Dempster outperformed his peripherals this past season, and we would expect some regression in his ERA even if he repeated his strikeout and walk levels. If Dempster keeps his walk rate in check and continues to display a nasty slider/changeup combo, he could meet Marcel’s projection.