Archive for Robert Gsellman

Just one day being used in a low-leverage situation, Corey Knebel was thrust into the 10th inning of a tie game with the Rockies. To his credit, Knebel breezed through the inning, allowing only a two-out walk to David Dahl. Three of the four batters he faced were left-handed, and Knebel’s recent struggles have occurred disproportionately against right-handed batters. Craig Counsell left Knebel in for the 11th inning, and after retiring leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon, he was set to face two tough righties, DJ LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado. The latter put the Rockies ahead with a solo home run.
Read the rest of this entry »

While many pondered the potential outcomes when deciding on taking Ken Giles in preseason drafts and auctions, Brad Peacock emerged as a popular target in the later rounds. In spite of his transition to the bullpen to start the year, Peacock’s 13 wins, 29.5 strikeout percentage and 161 strikeouts over 132 innings in 2017 made him an interesting pitcher to pair with Charlie Morton or an upside arm to deploy as a reliever with starting pitcher eligibility in leagues which use designations. After two strong innings on Wednesday, the Astros opted to leave Peacock in for three innings and the win rather than adhere to standard procedure by using their closer, Ken Giles to secure the last three outs against the Orioles.

There’s not reason for panic by Giles owners, yet at least, since leaving Peacock, while in a rhythm, translated into him retiring nine of the 11 hitters he faced. Peacock whiffed five of them, allowed two hits and issued zero walks. All told, Peacock threw 39 pitches in three innings generating 12 swinging strikes (30.8 swinging strike percentage in the appearance) and notching his, and Houston’s first save of the season. A.J. Hinch proved last postseason he would not be averse to using pitchers in roles outside the popular think box to close out games with Lance McCullers Jr. taking over high leverage last October. It’s a marathon of a season and Giles owners have reason to be upset, but it’s not time to panic, yet. Houston’s powerful offense could also cut into potential save chances as the year progresses, so Giles owners need to plan accordingly. Read the rest of this entry »

Woof. I don’t know what has happened. I’ve taken a real beating over the last couple weeks, and I apologize for anyone who has taken my advice. I’ll continue to write this column in vain, but completely understand if people don’t trust me again for a long, long time. Anyway, so here goes:

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 10)

17-16 record
5.10 ERA
7.6 K/9
2.1 K/BB
1.57 WHIP
17 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Jason Hammel – 8.7% ESPN – v. BOS (98), v. TOR (92)

Surely neither his team’s nor his season have been much to write home about — 5.05 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.40 FIP — but Hammel has been better of late, and it’s not like he hasn’t had stretches where he was really, really good recently. That includes the month of June, where over the 20.1 innings he’s thrown this month, he’s posted a 2.21 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just one walk in three starts. Of course, that includes a start against the woeful Giants last time out, but he did also make solid starts against the Indians and Astros. Back up to his last five starts — since a rough outing against the Yankees on May 16 at home — and Hammel still has a 3.52 ERA and 24-7 K/BB ratio in 30.2 innings. That’s a string of five pretty good starts, or about 15 percent of a season. We’ll give him a spin here in a couple interesting matchups.

LHP Francisco Liriano – 10.5% ESPN – @TEX (89), @KC (82)

I understand being scared to death to trust Liriano — the literal definition of a human time bomb — but these two matchups were too good for me to ignore. If you don’t like it, there are a couple names at the bottom of this post to consider otherwise. It’s not like Liriano has been all bad this season, as he’s fanning a batter per inning. If that feels like a bit of a reach for you, at least he’s been pretty good in June, too: 17 innings, 19-5 K/BB ratio and 3.71 ERA. One thing that might give you pause is that this month, opposing batters are hitting .231/.278/.462 against him. He isn’t giving up much, but when he does, it’s big. He does have a 12 percent swinging strike rate this month, though — so there’s potential for some big strikeout games this upcoming week.

RHP Robert Gsellman – 9.2% ESPN – @LAD (102), @SF (77)

It’s been a rough season, but I’ve always believed in the talent here, and hopefully it can come to roost this week. Since a rough start against th Brewers a month ago sent him to the bullpen, Gsellman has been pretty darn good. In six appearances (four starts) in the meantime, he’s posted a 2.25 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 28 innings (eight walks) and an opponents’ slash line against of .204/.268/.320. I’m especially salivating over the matchup against the Giants, but it’s not like the Dodgers have absolutely obliterated opposing pitchers this year, either. Sure, they have the ability to make life difficult, but it’s not like facing this year’s Yankees. It’s the classic give-to-get scenario either way, because again, I really like his chances against San Fran.

Last two out: Brad Peacock (@OAK, @SEA) and Scott Feldman (v. TB, v. TOR)

We’re back at it after an up-and-down start to Week 3, but I think we have a fairly good trio — including oddly enough, a holdover — heading into Week 4. Let’s dive right in.

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 3):

5-4 record
3.18 ERA
8.7 K/9
2.1 K/BB
1.35 WHIP
7 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

LHP Hector Santiago – 23.9% ESPN – v. OAK (106), v. BOS (99)

Santiago’s one of those guys who won’t wow you on the mound, but you look up in the fifth and you’re down 4-2 and aren’t sure how he’s kept you at bay. He works high in the zone with a low-90s fastball and doesn’t have especially good control, but just battles with every pitch and executes when he needs to. He’s been a consistent FIP beater for his entire career, which makes it sort of crazy that he was traded for Ricky Nolasco — among others — considering the latter does the exact opposite. What stands out for Santiago this year — in addition to improved walk rates — is that he’s changed his changeup grip and it appears to be working wonders. It has a little less fade than his screwball — which he still throws — and that allows him simply another look with which to attack batters. So far, that changeup has a 14 percent whiff rate this season — well above the 9.6 percent mark he’s had on it over his career.

RHP Robert Gsellman – 14.1% ESPN – @ATL (88), v. MIA (93)

I know the Braves pummeled him last time out — Kurt Suzuki? C’mon man! — but I’ll always gamble on the talent, and I love Gsellman in that respect. He’s still striking out a batter per inning and putting the ball on the ground (57.1 percent), and even despite the fact that he’s facing the Braves for a second time in a row, I think he can beat up on both of these teams. If you like someone else better that’s fine, but I’ll always, always gamble on the talent in these things.

LHP Daniel Norris – 11.9% ESPN – v. CLE (112), @OAK (106)

I really liked Norris last year — 9.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.38 ERA — and think he’s bound to round into form here eventually. This is another “gamble on the talent” kind of guy, with a higher groundball rate and lower home run rate than last year. To me, those things are tougher to correct than walk and strikeout rates, where he’s faltering compared to last season. His velo is up and he’s throwing more sliders….I think the strikeouts are just around the corner.

Sorry for being so late on this one friends. I had Twins coverage the last two days that pushed into my time. Also, this was one of my least favorite weeks in what’s now I think four years of doing this. A limited slate on Monday and a rather ugly one on Tuesday has left me with some options I don’t particularly love, but I do hope through a mix of matchups and other things we have a good one here.

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 2):

2-1 record
2.40 ERA
8.7 K/9
2.1 K/BB
1.31 WHIP
5 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

LHP Wei-Yin Chen – 4.7% ESPN – @PHI (96), v. PIT (81) Read the rest of this entry »

Here we are, for the penultimate edition of #2xSP this year. We’ve had a markedly better year than last, and the goal is to keep the ERA under 4.00 — after last week, woof — with a continued push for maybe 8.5 K/9 (high goal, but why not reach for the stars?) and hopefully lowering that WHIP under 1.30.

Here’s what we’re working with so far:

43-43 record
3.94 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.8 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
61 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP A.J. Cole – 13.3% ESPN – @MIA (93), @PIT (98)

It’s hard to really know what matters in samples as small as what Cole has put forth. What we do know for sure if this is a couple of pretty solid matchups, though going on the road can be a daunting task for any young pitcher. His first two starts on the road this year were solid — @BAL, @NYM — where he’s combined for a 3.46 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and an OPS against of just .640. Again, that’s just two starts, but those are solid numbers. Also solid is that Cole has induced double-digit swinging strike numbers in four of five starts, with the lone time he didn’t being eight in a season-low 78 pitches against the Phillies in his second-to-last start. That seems to back up the fact that he’s fanned more than a batter per inning — 31 in 28.2 innings — which should help us in the K/9 department. Now, let’s just hope for a couple quality starts.

UPDATE: We’re going with Clayton Richard instead of Cole, who will likely be bumped by the return of Joe Ross. The Padres face the Diamondbacks (95) and Giants (98) this week. Richard has a 1.70  ERA in eight appearances (six starts) with the Padres, with a 7.3 K/9 mark and a couple decent matchups at home this week.

Read the rest of this entry »