Archive for Ricky Romero

Through the first two-plus months of the year, Toronto had been fortunate enough to have one of the healthiest rotations in the big leagues. With the exception of one Joel Carreno start in the third game of the season, the quintet of Ricky Romero / Brandon Morrow / Henderson Alvarez / Kyle Drabek / Drew Hutchison had started every Blue Jays game through June 16. Consistency isn’t quite the same as effectiveness, of course, since Alvarez & Drabek were each cruising along with ugly FIP scores over 5.50, but nonetheless, few teams had made it that far into the season with such a low turnover in the rotation.

That situation fell apart completely in the span of four days last week, as Morrow (oblique), Drabek (elbow), and Hutchison (elbow) each hurt themselves and landed on the disabled list. Drabek will have Tommy John surgery and will be out until well into 2013; Hutchison’s fate is yet to be decided but a zipper of his own hasn’t been ruled out. Neither had much fantasy relevance, but the loss of Morrow for a month or more is acute, as he’d evolved into one of the better starters in the game, most recently ranked as the #20 overall starter on the latest Yahoo! leaderboards.

With the trio gone, Toronto suddenly has to fill 60% of their rotation. Let’s look at who’s left standing and who is now in line for opportunity; you might want to take the very young and very old out of the room before continuing, because it’s not pretty…

Read the rest of this entry »

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some starting pitchers.

James Shields
If you listen to xFIP, this was James Shields best season. If you ask ERA, or a majority of fans, this was his worst season. His strikeout rate was much better than his past two seasons, but it doesn’t look like he did anything to deserve it. He got smacked around this year, and even the great R.J. Anderson couldn’t really figure out why.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 4.15 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’ll be undervalued next year, so prey on other owners and draft him a couple rounds later than he should go.

Josh Beckett
For all the crap the mass media and Red Sox fans are giving him, Beckett wasn’t all that bad this year. He ended with an xFIP of 4.01 in less than 130 innings. However, he did have the worst whiff rate of his career, and his worst season throwing first pitch strikes.
Crude 2011 Projection: 160 IP, 4.10 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. 160 innings isn’t worth the price you have to pay. Draft him, but don’t keep him.

Ricky Romero
I was giddy when Romero was pitching well early on, but he struggled in the second half. For the last three months, Romero failed to post a K/BB over 2, but kept his xFIP around 4.00. He was still a four win pitcher this year, and his 55% ground ball rate is great. Pitching in the AL East didn’t help things, either, and I’m willing to bet he wins 17 games in most divisions.
Crude 2011 Projection: 200 IP, 3.75 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Odds are you got him off the waiver wire, and he’s worth that price.

Brett Cecil
Cecil had a nice April and May, but didn’t get much hype. The lefty doesn’t do anything special, and he’s a slight above-average pitcher. It was good to see him walk less batters, and his SwStr% was improved by a percentage points.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He wasn’t worth much in drafts, so he’s a nice value to have in the back of your rotation.

If you have a starting pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

Not that long ago, Ricky Romero was known to Blue Jays fans as the answer to the following trivia question: “who did Toronto take with the sixth pick in the 2005 draft instead of Troy Tulowitzki?”

While Tulo established himself as a top prospect at a premium position, Romero posted so-so-numbers on the farm. The Cal State Fullerton lefty struck out seven batters per nine innings, while walking 3.8 per nine and posting a 48.6 percent ground ball rate. Prior to 2009: Baseball America gave Romero the following assessment:

Late bloomer or bust? That’s the question surrounding Romero, whom the Blue Jays selected sixth overall in 2005 and signed for a club-record $2.4 million. He has spent the bulk of the past three seasons in Double-A and been passed by several lefties in the system…Romero still needs to show more consistency to reach his ceiling as a No. 3 or 4 starter.

While there are clearly worse scenarios than ending up with a first-rounder who’s a mid-to-back-end starter, the Jays likely had higher aspirations. Since that scouting report was published, however, Romero has taken his game to a different level.

In 2009, Romero turned in a quality rookie season. Tossing 178 innings, he posted rates of 7.13 K/9, 3.99 BB/9 and had a 54 percent ground ball rate. His expected FIP (xFIP) was 4.09. This year? He’s pitching like a bona fide ace. In 56.1 frames, the 25-year-old has 9.43 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, a 55.9 GB% and a 3.12 xFIP that ranks 7th among starters with at least 30 IP.

During his rookie year, 48.4 percent of Romero’s pitches were within the strike zone (the MLB average is 48-49 percent) and he garnered swings on pitches off the plate 24 percent (25-27% MLB average). In 2010, Romero has tried to bait hitters into expanding their zones, and it’s working. Placing just 44 percent of his offerings over the plate, he has induced outside swings 31.2 percent.

Romero’s contact and swinging strike rates were above average last year, but he’s in elite territory so far in 2010. Opponents put the bat on the ball 77.9 percent in ’09, compared to the 80-81% MLB average. That contact rate is down to 72.7 percent this season, and only Tim Lincecum, Brandon Morrow and Clayton Kershaw have been more adept at avoiding lumber. Romero’s swinging strike rate, 9.6 percent during his first foray in the majors, is 11.9 percent in 2010 (8-9% MLB average).

One of the keys to his success is a fantastic changeup. On May 15, Romero whiffed 12 Rangers batters on his way to a complete game shutout. From this AP article, here’s Texas 3B Michael Young describing Romero’s off-speed pitch:

It has kind of a split action to it. It’s not a straight change, it kind of has a little dive down in the zone. It’s a good pitch, it’s a plus pitch for him and you could tell he really had a lot of confidence in it.

Young’s observations look spot-on. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool at texasleaguers.com, Romero has gone to his 84-85 MPH change nearly one-third of the time. The bottom falls out of that pitch, and it moves more like a splitter. The average changeup has 6.1 inches of vertical movement, meaning it drops 6.1 inches less than a pitch thrown without spin. By contrast, Romero’s change has -0.3 inches of vertical movement–it falls 0.3 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. Batters are swinging at that changeup 53.6 percent (48.3 MLB average), and are whiffing 20.7 percent (12.1 MLB average). That’s, as Young said, a plus pitch.

In 234.1 major league innings, Romero has a 3.86 xFIP. He misses bats, has decent control and induces ground balls by the bushel. Yet, he is still available in nearly one-fifth of Yahoo leagues (81 percent ownership rate). Romero likely won’t keep up this pace all season, but he has the skill set to remain a well above-average starter. Snatch this guy up if he’s still on the waiver wire.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 23.

Homer Bailey – The overall numbers this year are underwhelming for Bailey but in his last three starts he is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 19 Ks in 21.1 IP. He is consistently in the mid-90s with his fastball and can dial it up to 98. The gopher ball is still a problem, he gave up two in his last start, and he does have a road start this week in Coors. Still, I like him this week as a two-start pitcher.

Garrett Mock – In the last 24 games of August, the Nationals were 8-16. In that same time span, Mock was 3-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 32 SO in 28.2 IP. Walks have been a problem for Mock, but his FIP is still nearly a run lower than his ERA. Get him into your lineup this week, even with a tough matchup against the Phillies.

Clayton Richard – Fantasy owners have really been hesitant to pick up Richard since his move to the NL, despite a 4-1 record with the Padres. He is 3-0 at home and gets one of his two starts this week at Petco. Since his road start is at San Francisco, I think he is a good two-start pitcher this week.

Ricky Romero – It has been a very successful rookie season for Romero, but the lefty has been hitting the wall lately. In his last six starts, Romero is 1-3 with a 6.32 ERA and a 1.851 WHIP. He catches a break by not going up against any AL East teams this week, still I think it is good to give him a break and not suffer two starts equal to what he has posted recently.

Andy Sonnanstine – One year after pitching in the World Series, it has been a disappointing season for Sonnanstine. He was unimpressive in the beginning of the season and was sent back to the minors. Sonnanstine posted a 4.40 ERA in nine games at Triple-A Durham and then made it back to Tampa Bay after the Kazmir deal. And his first start back was more of the same as he fell to 6-8. This week he has road starts at the New York and at Boston. Keep him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 23 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, Vazquez, Jimenez, Beckett, Happ, Lilly, Marquis, Kazmir, E. Santana, Garza, Scherzer, Buehrle, P. Martinez, Buchholz, Porcello, Penny, Richmond, Correia, Duensing, Bannister, Nippert, Lehr, Davies, Bush, Moehler, VandenHurk, Redding, Manship, Misch, Paulino.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 21 and how they did.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 1.88 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.05 WHIP (2 starts)
Buchholz – Advised to start. W, 5.54 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.08 WHIP (2)
Millwood – Advised to sit. W, 5.40 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.71 WHIP (2)
Niemann – Advised to sit. W, 4.72 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.20 WHIP (2)
Rowland-Smith – Advised to start. 3.14 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.05 WHIP (2)

Here is the latest update to Week 20 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

TOR – Romero
DET – Porcello
LAD – Haeger

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

DET – Verlander
TOR – Richmond
LAD – Jeff Weaver

Romero just finished a five-game stretch where he walked 14 batters in 28.2 innings and had a 5.65 ERA yet had a 3-2 record. In his last game he got a no-decision after allowing three runs in six IP versus the Yankees. Overall, an 80.5 percent strand rate has led to a 3.70 ERA compared to a 4.41 FIP. But Romero has been a bit unlucky with his HR/FB rate of 14.7 percent. Fortunately, he is a ground ball pitcher, with a 1.78 GB/FB ratio. That is the eighth highest GB ratio among qualified major league pitchers.

Porcello has a 3.81 ERA and a 1.288 WHIP in road starts this year compared to a 4.92 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in Comerica Park. Additionally, his SO/BB numbers are over twice as high on the road, where he sports a 2.29 mark in the category. This week he has both a home start (vs SEA) and a road game (at OAK). Porcello is 7-0 this year in games in which he has not allowed a HR. But he has allowed 17 HR this year and has a 16.7 HR/FB mark.

Haeger has allowed 26 BB in 34 IP in his brief major league career. This year the knuckleball specialist is 11-6 with a 3.55 ERA at Triple-A Albuquerque, where he is currently tied for the Pacific Coast League lead in wins and is eighth in ERA. He has a 3.61 BB/9 ratio this season in the PCL, continuing a trend of declining walk numbers one step beneath the majors. His walk numbers the previous three seasons in Triple-A: 2006 (4.13), 2007 (4.08) and 2008 (3.89).

Heading into the 2009 season, Toronto lefty Ricky Romero was viewed as something of a disappointment. The Blue Jays ponied up $2.4 million to make Romero the 6th overall pick in the 2005 draft out of Cal State Fullerton. Many fans and analysts derided the selection, noting the club passed up more heralded talents such as Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce.

It’s not that Romero had been a “bust”, mind, you. He just hadn’t really stood out. While Tulowitzki, Maybin, McCutchen and Bruce went on to become prospect darlings and organizational building blocks, Romero entered the ’09 season as the third-best lefty pitching prospect in the Toronto system (behind Brett Cecil and Brad Mills), according to Baseball America.

His peripherals in the minors, while not poor, were bland. Romero punched out seven batters per nine innings, while generously dishing out free passes (3.8 BB/9). Baseball America called him a future “number 3 or 4 starter.” Truth be told, most teams would gladly take such production from a first-rounder. But having selected Romero at the expense of five-tool talents, the Jays were left wanting more.

So far in 2009, Romero has at least slightly eased the pain of passing on the Tulowitzkis and McCutchens of the world. In 14 starts, the 6-1, 200 pounder has compiled a 3.25 ERA. How has Romero come to post the 7th-lowest ERA in the A.L., and what should we expect moving forward? Let’s try to answer those questions.

While Romero has been legitimately impressive, a closer look at his numbers reveals a discord between his ERA and fielding-independent stats. Ricky has racked up 7.59 K/9, while issuing 3.45 BB/9. His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on a pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB ratio to root out extreme performances on flyballs) is 3.98. Not that there’s anything wrong with that: Romero’s XFIP ranks 9th in the A.L. But, he has benefitted from an 84.8% strand rate, which is a good 13-14% above the league average.

The former Titan totes a four-pitch mix, keeping hitters off balance with a 91 MPH fastball (thrown 51.9% of the time), 83 MPH slider (15.1%), 77 MPH curve (10%) and an 84 MPH changeup (23.1%). Romero’s heater (-0.83 runs/100 pitches) and slider (-1.12) haven’t been instilling fear into the opposition, but his curve has been above average (+0.26) and the changeup has been superb (+3.45).

Romero has long been noted for pulling the string well, which helps to explain his reverse platoon split (.228/.321/.371 vs. RHB, .314/.352/.559 vs. LHB). That trend was also present throughout his minor league career. According to Minor League Splits, Romero had a 4.50 FIP against lefty batters (4.56 BB/9) and a 4.25 mark against righties (3.33 BB/9).

The 24 year-old still isn’t showing the best of control. Romero has placed 46.6% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average), while tossing a first-pitch strike 56.8% of the time (58% MLB avg). On the other hand, Ricky is getting a decent number of outside swings (hitters are chasing 26.9% of his offerings out of the zone, compared to the 25 percent MLB average) and he has a quality contact rate (76.4%, 80.7% MLB avg).

Romero hasn’t been as impressive as his ERA would imply, but he has certainly been a quality starter in his first foray in the majors. He’s missing a decent number of bats with a deep arsenal of pitches, while also keeping the ball on the turf (51.8 GB%). The question moving forward will be: can he limit the walks? Intermittent control plagued Romero throughout his minor league career. For what it’s worth, ZiPS is predicting Romero to return to Earth with a big thud (5.46 ERA, 5.33 K/9 and 4.89 BB/9 during the rest of the 2009 season).

That seems awfully harsh. Granted, Romero toils in the ultra-competitive A.L. East, with a troubling history of missing his spots in the minors. And it’s also true that we’re examining what amounts to a half-season’s worth of data in the majors. But there’s nothing that screams “fluke” in Romero’s big league numbers. He definitely won’t continue posting an ERA in the low three’s, but it seems reasonable to hope for a mark in the low four’s from here on out. Romero is no future ace, but he’s also not a lost cause by any stretch of the imagination.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

Jose Contreras – In his first five starts of the season, Contreras was 0-5 with an 8.19 ERA. Since then he is 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA and has pitched into the eighth inning in four of his last five starts. Contreras has his highest SO rate (6.18) since 2005 and his walk rate (2.82) is under three for the fourth straight year. His FIP checks in 84 points lower than his ERA. And while his BABIP is a touch low (.285) his 60.4 percent strand rate has room for improvement. Owned in only 25 percent of CBS Sports leagues, Contreras could be a good add for two starts this week.

Jon Garland – A free agent pickup by the Diamondbacks in the off-season, Garland has had a Jekyl-Hyde type season. In road games, Garland has a 2.47 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. In home games, Garland checks in with a 7.51 ERA and 1.827 WHIP. He has eight starts each home and away. With two home games this week, sit Garland if you can.

Mike Pelfrey – He was very tough in May, with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP. However, June was less kind as he posted a 6.39 ERA in five starts. His last start came Wednesday, the first day in July, and Pelfrey pitched 7.2 innings of scoreless ball along with six strikeouts. Historically, Pelfrey has done his best work in July and August, the only two months in his career where his ERA is below four. He gets two starts at Citi Field this week, where his ERA this year is ¾ of a run lower than his road mark.

Ricky Romero – While the pre-season hype surrounding a rookie Blue Jays pitcher was reserved for Brett Cecil, it has been Romero who has been the biggest contributor. Romero has an impressive 2.54 SO/BB ratio and a very nice 1.24 WHIP. The LHP from California has six straight Quality Starts and is working on a streak of 20 consecutive scoreless innings. Owned in just 22.4 percent of ESPN leagues, check your waiver wire and see if he is available to pick up and insert into your lineup.

Jordan Zimmermann – Our own David Golebiewski has a nice write-up of Zimmermann, one of my favorite rookie pitchers this season. However, you may want to sit him this week if possible. Zimmermann has two road starts in Week 14, and away from Nationals Park he has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.470 WHIP. And not only are they road starts, but Zimmermann will take the mound in Colorado versus the second-highest scoring team in the National League and in Houston, where Minute Maid Park is one of the top HR parks in the majors this season.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Beckett, Vazquez, Gallardo, J.Johnson, Cain, Hamels, Wainwright, Weaver, Garza, Cueto, Millwood, Kershaw, Jurrjens, Harang, Baker, Pettitte, Happ, Smoltz, Kuroda, Meche, Marquis, Wells, Correia, Washburn, Bergesen, Zito, Hammel, Galarraga, West, Hampton, Vargas, W. Silva, G. Gonzalez, V. Vasquez, Sowers, Holland, Stammen, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 12 and how they did.

Cahill – Advised to start. W, 6 K, 6.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (2 starts)
Cook – Advised to start. 2 W, 8 K 1.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Liriano – Advised to sit. 2 W, 12 k, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)
Richmond – Advised to sit. W, 3 K, 2.57 ERA, 0.57 WHIP (1)
Wang – Advised to start. W, 7 K, 4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (2)

This weekend’s Interleague Series featuring Toronto and Washington may not be a huge draw south of the border, but there are three interesting things to keep an eye on. Firstly, the Nationals were, of course, originally Canada’s first Major League Baseball team – the Montreal Expos. Secondly, it will be the first time that the two clubs have met up since Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi made some disparaging remarks in the media about (then Cincinnati Reds slugger) Adam Dunn, who now plays in Washington. Do you think Dunn will be locked in?

Thirdly, and most interestingly (as far as I am concerned), this series will feature appearances from five (out of the possible six) rookie starters. Toronto will send veteran Brian Tallet to the mound on Friday, but then he will be followed by rookies Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero. Interestingly, all three pitchers are left-handers. Washington will counter with three rookies this weekend: Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler (also a southpaw), and Shairon Martis. The Washington line-up is right-handed heavy (with the exception of Dunn and Nick Johnson) so the on-paper match-up goes to the Nationals.

Brett Cecil, 22, pitched fairly well in his first three Major League games this season. It was his fourth start that doomed him and sent him back to the minors. On May 20 in Boston, Cecil allowed 11 hits in 4.2 innings of work, along with two walks and five home runs. Overall, he has allowed 28 hits in 24.2 innings of work, while allowing seven homers and posting rates of 2.19 BB/9 and 6.57 K/9. His ERA is 4.38 but his FIP is 6.39. Cecil also has a ground-ball rate of 52%.

Ricky Romero has been a savior to the Jays’ rotation in 2009, despite missing time with an oblique strain (but what Jays pitcher hasn’t been injured this season). The 24-year-old former No. 1 draft pick has a 3.73 ERA (4.77 FIP) and has allowed 52 hits in 50.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 2.84 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.28 K/9. Romero has a ground-ball rate of 50%.

Jordan Zimmermann, 23, has been inconsistent this season, but his talent is obvious. In 57 innings, he has allowed 61 hits, while posting rates of 2.53 BB/9 and 9.47 K/9. His ERA is 5.37 but his FIP is just 3.79. He has a ground-ball rate of just 44.2%, which has been hurt by a line-drive rate of 25.0%.

Ross Detwiler, 23, has a 5.23 ERA, but once again a Nationals pitcher has a much lower FIP at 3.83. He has allowed 36 hits in 32.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 3.86 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.34 BB/9. Detwiler has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with just two homers allowed (0.55 HR/9).

Shairon Martis, 22, has pitched more than any other rookie pitcher in this series at 75 and he’s allowed just 69 hits. His rates, though, are not that good with a walk rate of 4.04 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 3.45 K/9. His ERA is currently 4.75, with a FIP of 5.14. He’s allowed eight home runs (0.85 BB/9). With a ground-ball rate of just 41.3%, Martis is constantly flirting with disaster thanks to his modest fastball (an average of 90 mph) and his spotty control.

The youth movement in Major League Baseball is in all its glory this weekend in Washington. In fact, the Jays organization actually has more rookies in its Major League rotation right now, than it does in triple-A Las Vegas. So who do you think will win the battle of the rookies – in both this series and in the years to come?

Here is the latest update to Week 11 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYY – Sabathia
MIL – Gallardo
TEX – Millwood
TOR – Romero
MIN – Perkins

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

MIN – Liriano
NYY – Wang
TEX – Mathis

Sabathia reeled off five straight Quality Starts but has allowed four runs in each of his past two starts. Sabathia’s FIP (3.74) is almost identical to his ERA (3.68). He has an interesting mix as his BABIP sits at a low .261 but his strand rate is just 69.2 percent. Sabathia is one of the few pitchers seemingly not affected by the homer explosion at new Yankee Stadium. He has allowed just three HR in 42 IP at home this season.

Gallardo has allowed two earned runs or less in nine of his 12 starts this year. However, he has been lucky with a .243 BABIP and an 81.2 percent strand rate. Gallardo’s velocity has rebounded and his K/9 sits at a nice 8.88. Besides walks, his other ratios are in line with, or better than, what he did in 2006. Gallardo is doing everything owners could have reasonably hoped for coming into the season.

Millwood keeps pitching well despite, well, everything. In his last outing he pitched into the eighth inning without allowing a run despite striking out only one batter. His FIP is two runs above his ERA, his strikeout rate is at a career low and he has his highest home run rate since 2001. And according to CBS Sports, he is the 51st-best fantasy player in 2009.

Romero currently has a 3.71 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. ZiPS is not impressed. For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects Romero to finish with a 6.04 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. It just goes to show what an 86.4 percent strand rate can do for a fellow.

Perkins has not pitched in the majors since May 18th due to a sore elbow. He has made two rehab starts in Class-A, going seven scoreless innings with four strikeouts on June 9th. He gets home starts this week against Pittsburgh and Houston, two below-average teams in terms of runs scored and the bottom two squads in the NL Central.

For the last few weeks, I have been focusing on the hitting side of things when it comes to the Rookie of the Year race in both the American and National Leagues. In this post, we are going to take a look at the pitchers currently in the running for the year-end award in the AL. It seems to be a down year for rookie pitchers, though, with the likes of Tampa Bay’s David Price still in the minors.

If you’re an ERA fan, then Trevor Cahill’s 4.50 would probably lead you think, “OK, not great but it could be worse.” Well it is. The Oakland right-hander has allowed 27 hits and 18 walks in just 26 innings of work. He’s also added just eight strikeouts. With a line-drive rate of 24 percent, BABIP of .269, and a FIP of 6.37, he’s been lucky (while playing in a big home park) and he’s been bailed out by the defenders behind him. The 21-year-old could probably use a little more polish in the minors.

Cahill’s teammate Brett Anderson has also had a rough go of things so far this year. Coming into the season, the 21-year-old lefty was considered a more advanced pitcher than most players his age but he’s still learning. Anderson has a 5.79 ERA (5.00 FIP) and has allowed 33 hits and nine walks in 28 innings of work. He’s also struck out an uncharacteristically low 4.5 batters per nine innings. In fairness, he’s faced three very tough lineups in Texas, Boston and New York (AL). Anderson is getting opponents to pound the ball into the ground (55.7 GB%) and they also are not hitting the ball with consistent authority against him (10.3 LD%). He’s going to see some good results soon.

Detroit’s Rick Porcello is another player who has been rushed to the Majors, after spending all of last season in high A-ball. The right-hander currently has allowed 28 hits and nine walks in 28.2 innings of work. Porcello has a 4.71 ERA (5.80 FIP) in his five starts. The six home runs allowed are worrisome (1.88 HR/9) but his groundball rate is good (52.1 GB%).

The sixth overall pick from the 2005 draft, Ricky Romero is still trying to live up to that lofty standard. In his first three starts of the season – after surprising everyone by nailing down a rotation spot in spring training – Romero was outstanding. He posted a 1.71 ERA (3.28 FIP) with 19 hits and just four walks in 21 innings of work. Unfortunately, he injured his oblique and hasn’t pitched since April 19. Fortunately for Toronto, he should be back within two weeks. The talent is there, he just needs to trust his stuff and hope he’s finally turned the corner with his command and control.

There may not be a rookie in the Majors who is flying more under the radar than Romero’s teammate Scott Richmond. The Canadian is a great story as a 29-year-old rookie. He took three years off school after high school and did not graduate from Oklahoma State University until he was 25, so he went undrafted. The Jays noticed him while he was pitching in independent baseball in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Within one year of signing, he pitched 27 innings for the Jays in 2008. So far this year, he has allowed 25 hits and 12 walks in 30.1 innings. He also has 26 strikeouts. Among MLB rookies, Richmond is second in strikeouts and innings pitched, as well as first in ERA and wins. He’s 12th in all of baseball in ERA amongst starters with at least 30 innings pitched.