Archive for Ricky Nolasco

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Francisco Liriano – He has run hot and cold this year. In his last four games, Liriano is 0-3 with a 4.68 ERA, which cost him a shot at the All-Star game. But Liriano has also enjoyed two different hot streaks this year and overall he has a sparkling 2.88 xFIP and a nice 9.88 K/9. According to the price guide over at Last Player Picked, Liriano has been worth $11 this year, far off the $30+ pace of Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez. While he may not be quite in their class, do not be afraid to pay more than $11 in value to acquire Liriano for the rest of the season.

Ricky Nolasco – One of the most volatile players in fantasy baseball the past few years, Nolasco has really disappointed owners who valued him at 2009’s 3.28 xFIP. But given his streaky nature, now might be the ideal time to take a flyer on him. In his last 30 games, Nolasco has a 27.3 HR/FB rate, easily the highest in the majors. If he can get the HR under control, Nolasco could shave a run or more off his ERA going forward. He is not the strikeout pitcher he was last year, but a 7.64 K/9 is nothing to dismiss lightly.

Kurt Suzuki – The good news this year is that Suzuki is continuing to add to his HR power. In his first full season in the majors he had a 4.2 HR/FB rate. Last year it was 8.0 and so far this year it is 11.2 percent. But injuries and a .240 BABIP have held down his overall value this year. Suzuki appears over the injured ribs that sidelined him earlier in the year. Now he just needs to have a little better luck on balls in play.

SELL

David DeJesus – One of the players rumored to be on the trading block in MLB, DeJesus should be shopped in fantasy, too. He is a good fantasy player because he contributes in all five categories. The problem is that he does not really excel in any of them. He will reach double-digits in both HR and SB, but just barely in each of them. Right now he is very valuable thanks to his .329 AVG. But that was produced with a .366 BABIP, 44 points above his lifetime mark. ZiPS sees him hitting 30 points lower the rest of the way and even that lower mark is still 9 points above his lifetime mark.

Mat Latos – He has been everything his owners have expected and more so far this season. In his last 11 games, Latos is 8-1 with a 1.60 ERA and has 74 Ks in 73.1 IP. That stretch has been fueled by a .212 BABIP and he has allowed just 2 HR in that span. Obviously he will not be able to keep that pace going for the remainder of the season. The other red flag surrounding Latos is the unknown about how much he will pitch the rest of the way. He had injury problems in the minors and earlier in the year the Padres said they would be careful with his workload in the second half. That may go out the window with the team involved in a pennant race but it is still something that fantasy owners need to concerned with in August and September.

Joel Pineiro – In his last six games, Pineiro is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA. That hot streak has brought his ERA (3.96) in perfect alignment with both his FIP (3.95) and xFIP (3.93). So, while he was a bit unlucky early in the season, regression has hit for Pineiro. In his career, Pineiro has a 4.36 ERA, which is essentially what ZiPS projects for him the rest of the season. If you do hold him, you will want to play matchups the rest of the way. Pineiro has a 2.22 ERA at home and a 6.80 mark on the road.

HUNCH

Dexter Fowler – After not hitting the first two months of the season, Colorado sent Fowler to the minors. In Triple-A this year he put up a .340/.435/.566 line in 124 PA before being recalled by the Rockies. While Colorado already had a full outfield, which forced Seth Smith and Ryan Spillborghs to vie for time, Fowler was immediately inserted into the lineup as leadoff hitter. He has picked up right where he left off in the minors, with 10 hits in his first 24 ABs. I like Fowler to win a starting job the rest of the season and to exceed his ZiPS projection of 221 PA the rest of the way. I also think he will hit better than his .255 projection and exceed 9 SB.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Nine.

Jeremy Bonderman – After a rough April, Bonderman has rebounded with a strong May, posting a 1.33 ERA with 26 Ks and 7 BB in 27 IP. But it has not translated into Wins, as Bonderman picked up one victory in May and has a 2-2 record overall. Look for Bonderman to continue his strong pitching with matchups this week against the Indians and Royals, two teams with a combined 37-56 record. He could double his win total this week.

Rich Harden – It has been a roller coaster ride for Harden in his first season in Texas. At various times this year, Harden has had troubles with BB, HR and BABIP. The overall effect has been both a FIP and xFIP higher than his 5.14 ERA. Harden has a very good 8.82 K/9, but that is down from last year’s 10.91 rate. Additionally, he has a career high 54.2 FB%. So, while his HR/FB rate is a lower than average 9.1 percent, he still has allowed 7 HR in 49 IP. Bottom line, Harden is not pitching anywhere close to how he did in the second half of 2009, so do not risk him being active in a two-start week.

Ricky Nolasco – The story of the Spring was how Ricky Nolasco did not give up a walk until his final appearance. His control has carried over into the regular season, as Nolasco’s 1.60 BB/9 is the seventh-best mark in the majors. And while he is allowing fewer walks, he is also striking out fewer batters, over three per nine compared to a season ago. Not only is he allowing more balls in play, Nolasco’s FB% is up too, checking in at 44.1%. The end result is an ERA of 4.65. While he has been unlucky to the tune of 0.55 by both FIP and xFIP, Nolasco is not having the impact year many predicted. This week he faces the Brewers and Mets. Lifetime he is winless with an 11.81 ERA against Milwaukee and is 4-6 with a 5.62 ERA against New York so leave him on the bench if you have other options.

Ervin Santana – After starting the season 0-2 when he allowed 9 ER in 11.2 IP, Santana has been a much better pitcher. In his last six games he has thrown five Quality Starts. Santana’s K/9 is up to 8.09 for the season. He has been lucky with an 82.2 percent strand rate but he has favorable matchups this week against Kansas City and Seattle. While both of those starts are on the road, Santana has a 3.06 road ERA this year.

Hisanori Takahashi – The Japanese veteran started his career in the U.S. in long relief but did so well he earned a shot in the rotation, where he has pitched 12 scoreless innings. It remains to be seen if Takahashi will continue his success his second time through the league, but this week he gets a road start in Petco against a Padres team that has yet to face him and a home start against the Marlins. Takahashi is 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA in Citi Field, so he is a good pickup for his two-start week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Nine are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Jimenez, Verlander, Garza, Billingsley, Oswalt, Hudson, J. Garcia, Hanson, Pettitte, Liriano, Lackey, Vazquez, Buehrle, Ely, Arroyo, Fister, Myers, Blanton, Matusz, Vargas, Morrow, Blackburn, Correia, Cahill, Talbot, Gorzelanny, Hochevar, Robertson, Westbrook, Narveson, Ohlendorf, Bush, R. Lopez, Bannister, Atilano, Stammen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Seven pitchers and how they fared.

Ely – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 2.77 ERA, 1.077 WHIP (2 starts)
Kuroda – Advised to start. W, 7 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Matsuzaka – Advised to sit. W, 8 Ks, 4.97 ERA, 1.342 WHIP (2)
Pavano – Advised to start. 7 Ks, 7.50 ERA, 1.417 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to sit. 2W, 8 Ks, 1.98 ERA, 1.244 WHIP

Here is the latest update to Week Six 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – John Lackey
FLA – Ricky Nolasco
TEX – Colby Lewis
STL – Brad Penny
TOR – Brandon Morrow
ANA – Joel Pineiro
HOU – Brett Myers
DET – Rick Porcello
NYM – Jonathon Niese
KCR – Brian Bannister
LAD – Carlos Monasterios

After getting roughed up by the Rays, Lackey has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts, picking up two wins in the process. His GB/FB ratio is essentially where it’s been the past few years, but Lackey is striking out fewer batters and issuing more walks. His 1.50 K/BB ratio is the worst of his career. Lackey is surviving thanks to a lower LD% and a lower HR/FB rate. He has posted a lower than average HR/FB rate in six of his eight seasons in the majors and so far this year it checks in at 7.1 percent.

Six of the seven homers allowed by Nolasco this year have come in his home park, where he has pitched 16 innings. The rest of the Marlins’ staff has allowed 7 HR in 135 IP at Sun Life Stadium. The average velocity on Nolasco’s fastball is down 1.1 mph and his K/9 has fallen from 9.49 to 7.26. A 1.82 BB/9 has kept his FIP and xFIP right around his ERA of 4.08, which checks in slightly better than the NL average of a 4.20 ERA.

A wicked slider which he throws over 30 percent of the time has helped make Lewis’ second stint in the majors go significantly better than his first. That has led to a 31.4 O-Swing% and a 10.24 K/9 rate. Somewhere on the West Coast, Carson Cistulli cracks a smile over this.

Last year Penny had a 1.13 GB/FB rate but it is back up to 1.49 this year. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan gets all of the credit for the turnaround yet Penny had a 1.63 GB/FB rate last year with the Giants. Penny is posting the lowest walk rate of his career (1.77 BB/9) and perhaps Duncan deserves credit for that. Still, Penny is pitching better than his peripherals, with an xFIP nearly two runs higher than his ERA.

In his last four outings, Morrow is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA and has 34 Ks in 24.1 IP. The overall numbers still look bad because of the brutal first two starts but you should definitely check the waiver wire to see if he is still available in your league.

Pineiro still has tremendous GB and BB rates, so why is his ERA sitting at 5.30 or nearly two runs a game higher than last season? Check out that 15.6 HR/FB rate, over twice as high as last year’s mark. Pineiro has also been unlucky with a .351 BABIP. The bottom line is that his xFIP of 3.89 is just slightly higher than last year’s 3.68.

This week Myers has two road starts. He has a 2.57 ERA on the road this year and an 0-2 record.

The K/9 for Porcello has risen from 4.69 to 5.70 this season. Unfortunately his BABIP has risen from .281 to .396 and combine that with a 58.4 LOB% and you get a 7.50 ERA. Porcello’s FIP and xFIP are right in line with last year, when he posed a 3.96 ERA and 14 Wins.

Omar Minaya eschewed adding a free agent pitcher in the offseason, saying he liked his internal candidates as much as what was available after Lackey signed. Niese is trying his best to make Minaya look good and has a 3.60 ERA after six starts despite a .382 BABIP.

This season Bannister has made three starts during the day and three at night. He is 1-0 with a 2.41 ERA in the sunshine and 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA under the lights. In his career, Bannister is 18-8 with a 4.06 ERA in day games and 13-32 with a 5.26 ERA at night.

Monasterios was originally signed by the Yankees out of Venezuela. He was shipped to Philadelphia in the Bobby Abreu deal and was underwhelming in three-plus years in the Phillies’ farm system. This year he was selected by the Mets in the Rule 5 draft and then sold to the Dodgers. He has been effective in relief for Los Angeles and gets bumped into the rotation as Los Angeles looks everywhere for help for its rotation. However, his xFIP is two full runs higher than his ERA.

Today is supposed to be a waiver wire article, but we’ll have plenty of those. For those of you still planning one last draft (and the internal FanGraphs league is one of those), I thought I would present to you my second-ever auction draft. Yes, I’m a noob. But with more mocks and real-life auctions in my review mirror, I’ll be able to step up the auction coverage here at RotoGraphs.

Here are my results, with comments coming after:

Position Player $
C Brian McCann 22
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 1
1B Adrian Gonzalez 31
2B Brandon Phillips 21
3B Gordon Beckham 17
SS Alcides Escobar 12
CI Paul Konerko 10
MI Chris Getz 1
OF Justin Upton 30
OF Carlos Lee 19
OF Matt LaPorta 4
OF Seth Smith 1
OF Scott Podsednik 1
UT Gaby Sanchez 2
BN Xavier Nady 1
BN Matt Joyce 1
Total Offense: $173

Position Player $
P CC Sabathia 26
P Josh Johnson 22
P Brett Anderson 16
P Roy Oswalt 6
P Ryan Franklin 5
P Ryan Madson 4
P Kerry Wood 3
P Ryan Rowland-Smith 2
P Jonathon Niese 1
BN Ian Kennedy 1

Pitching total: $87

This was a 15-team put on by MDS (MillionDollarSleeper), who I’m sure you’ve seen around the comment boards at this site and others. He brought in an impressive collection of talent including David Goleblahblah, Paul Greco from FantasyPros911, Tim Heany from KFFL, Rudy Gamble and Grey Albright from Razzball, Paul Bourdett from AOL Fantasy Fanhouse, Antonio D’Arcangelis from RotoExperts, Scott Swanay from Fantasy Sherpas, Chris Carbonell from the Starbonell BlogTalkRadio show, Charlie Saponara from FB365, and yours truly.

Given that it was a 15-team league and my second attempt ever, I don’t think I fared so badly. I’d say Adrian Gonzalez for $31 was a little much, but the top-tier first basemen went for closer to $40 and Albert Pujols went for $48, so I think I did okay there. Maybe $10 is too much for Paul Konerko, but Adam LaRoche went minutes later for $15 and I felt (much) better. Things happened a little differently with Alcides Escobar – ten minutes after wondering if I’d spent too much on him, Everth Cabrera went for $4 and I wondered if Escobar’s superior batting average (based on fewer Ks and minor league history) was worth $8. Maybe it will prove to be. Carlos Lee for $19 looks about as bad as he does in a uniform, but the crib sheet I was using from LastPlayerPicked.com had Lee worth $21 next year and I was happy to get the power production with a good batting average for relatively cheap. And as for Scott Podsednik and Gaby Sanchez, who both showed up on my NFBC teams, too: They were cheap. And I think they’ll play almost regularly all year. So that’s something.

On the pitching side, CC Sabathia went for less than Johan Santana ($28), Dan Haren ($31), Felix Hernandez ($33), Zack Greinke ($32) and Tim Lincecum ($41), so I was happy to get my ace for cheaper than most. I also preferred CC, despite his big innings totals, over Ubaldo Jimenez ($26) and Ricky Nolasco ($25) as much as I like the younger pitchers. Lord knows CC has put up big innings totals before.

Once I spent my top-closer money on Brett Anderson, I knew I’d be looking for value in the saves category. Advice from Baseball Prospectus’ Marc Normandin was ringing in my ear (punt saves!), but I decided I’d rather try to field a full team this time. Once he’s healthy, I happen to think that the Indians will want to run Kerry Wood out there at closer to pump up his value for a trade, meaning that between him and Ryan Madson, I think I might have a second closer in there somewhere.

It’s kind of a wonky team and seems devoid of elite, top-shelf talent, but it just might work. What do you guys think?

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, we’re doing starters by tiers. Tier one, otherwise known as SP1, was last week. SP2 is below.

Imagine if, on offense, you were just able to pick whomever regardless of position? Or, more correctly, what if there were only two positions on offense in fantasy baseball? Infield and Outfield? That’s what it’s like on the pitching side. So, not surprisingly, the second tier of fantasy starting pitchers looks pretty nice. (It’s also reason #36,978 to draft pitching later!)

All of the hurlers in the first tier could easily end up as fantasy aces next year. Matt Cain and Javier Vazquez were probably even SP1s last year… we just doubt their ability to repeat those seasons. Jake Peavy got a demotion from the first set of pitchers because of his health and move to the stronger league. Yovani Gallardo and Tommy Hanson are young, exciting, and ascendant: pick one of them as your SP1 and follow it up with a possible bounce-back veteran like Cole Hamels, and your likelihood of having two fantasy aces is high.

The next tier just has more question marks. Clayton Kershaw has some awesome pitches, and an equally terrible walk rate to go with them. Jair Jurrjens just had too many stranded runners and too many bouncing balls go his way to trust him to be anywhere as good as he was last year. Wandy Rodriguez has now sustained his excellence two years in a row – but his fastball barely cracks 90 miles per hour, and throwing all those curveballs (almost 40%) has to catch up with you some day, maybe. John Lackey brings multiple question marks (rising walk rate, dropping strikeout rate and innings totals) with him into a new stadium. Chad Billingsley looks like he got a little unlucky last year and may return to grace, but given his walk rate, his WHIP may never be elite.

The final tier includes some semi-controversial pitchers, since we all seem to love Brett Anderson more than his major league numbers perhaps bear out. It could be because of his unique stuff, as Dave Allen showed us a while back in a great post. Then we have numbers that seem to suggest that Ricky Nolasco was very unlucky last year and should be in line for a good season as the luck pendulum swings back for him. We also see two former aces that have ridden injuries to the bottom of the SP2s in Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb. Webb’s injury is a bigger deal because it was in his shoulder, but Oswalt is a slight guy with declining innings totals that has talked of an early retirement.

And then we have the two toughest names to place on this list. James Shields never had plus strikeout rates, and with the walk rate and WHIP rising slowly, you have to wonder if he’ll just always be a high-3s ERA guy that won’t get you much more than 160 Ks. Joining him is fellow low-WHIP meister Scott Baker. Both pitchers actually have okay strikeout rates, good walk rates, poor home run rates, and high-3s FIPs. Their low WHIP makes them attractive, and they are good pitchers. But who do you move off the list to get them on?

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 7.

Ricky Nolasco – Yes, when you drafted Nolasco you thought he’d be one of your top pitchers when he was healthy. But instead he’s been horrible. Maybe Nolasco is hiding an injury or maybe his teammates are tipping all of his pitches. Either way, you do not want him in your lineup for two lousy starts. The fear is that the moment you take him out is when he rights the ship but is that upside worth the damage he could do to your staff? Nolasco leads the NL in hits allowed (58) and ER (36).

Scott Baker – So far in 2009, Baker has a 2.14 HR/9 mark. This week he goes on the road to face the White Sox against their top pitcher, Mark Buehrle. And his second start he faces the Brewers, who are tied for the lead in the NL with 45 HRs.

Shairon Martis – Yes, he’s 5-0 but his peripherals are underwhelming. And LHB have really feasted on Martis this year. Lefties have a .319/.394/.473 mark in 104 PA versus the rookie from Curacao. The Pirates lineup features five lefty hitters while the Orioles as a team are batting .288/.362/.474 versus RHP.

Brandon McCarthy – The Texas pitcher is 3-1 and has two road starts this week. Ordinarily that would be a good thing, but McCarthy actually has pitched better at home so far this season. Still, his pitching matchups are Dontrelle Willis and Mike Hampton. The Rangers are third in the league in runs scored, they have a .292 AVG versus LHP and should be able to give McCarthy good run support versus pitchers who are several years removed from their last good season.

Jason Hammel – Yes, the ERA looks really bad but Hammel has been killed at Coors Field, where he has allowed 12 ER in 10 IP. This week he has two road starts, where Hammel has yet to give up a run in 10 innings. Plus, he gets to face Jo-Jo Reyes and Willis in his two starts. This is a good guy to pick up off the waiver wire for this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 7 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Haren, J. Johnson, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Shields, Lilly, Lee Buehrle, Jurrjens, Pettitte, Wolf, Young, Wakefield, E. Santana, Washburn, Richmond, Zito, Bannister, Pineiro, Perkins, Ohlendorf, Marquis, Palmer, Tallet, Looper, Willis, Hampton, Owings, Niemann, Augenstein, Bergesen, Outman, Gallagher, Karstens, Redding, Reyes, Richard.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 5 and how they did.

Beckett – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP (2 starts)
Volstad – Advised to sit. 6 K, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)
Buehrle – Advised to start. W, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP (1)
Maholm – Advised to start. 9 K, 6.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP (2)
Paulino – Advised to start but sent to bullpen.

With a month’s worth of games in the books, let’s take a quick look at the starting pitchers who have significantly over performed or underperformed, based on their Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). By taking a gander at those core numbers (strikeouts, walks, homers), we can get a better idea of which hot starts are unlikely to last or which “struggling” starters might be in for a rebound. Here’s a recap of those who have posted an ERA significantly higher than their FIP would indicate. These are the guys who will very likely post better numbers in the coming months, should their peripherals hold up.

Justin Verlander, Tigers

6.75 ERA, 3.22 FIP

Verlander’s ERA looks like something out of an Alfred Hitchcock horror film (how appropriate, given Comerica’s tendency to go to the birds). However, the Old Dominion product actually pitched very well in April: again flashing mid-90’s gas (his fastball is up to 95.3 MPH in ’09, after coming in at 93.6 MPH in ’08), Verlander has fooled 34 batters in 28 innings (10.93 K/9) while shaving slightly over 1 walk per nine innings off his ledger (2.89 BB/9, down from 3.90 last season). Only a mind-bending .408 BABIP and 50.3% strand rate have kept Verlander from being recognized as improved. Don’t let the Maroth-like ERA fool you: Verlander is dealing, and he’s a great buy-low candidate.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

6.92 ERA, 3.64 FIP

After a ridiculously productive second half in 2008, Nolasco has spurred a lot of “what’s wrong with him?” talk in the first month of the season. While his control hasn’t been especially sharp (3.12 BB/9, after a pinpoint 1.78 BB/9 in 2008), it’s not as though Nolasco is getting shelled and struggling horrendously. His K rate has remained stable (7.62 per nine): it’s the .391 BABIP that’s killing him (you’ll note a trend on this list: strong peripherals sabotaged by very poor showings on balls put in play) as well as a 56.9% strand rate. Don’t discard Nolasco at a bargain-basement price: he’ll likely reward you in the coming months.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox

7.22 ERA, 4.05 FIP

Beckett has gotten shelled his last two trips to the mound against New York and Tampa Bay, and to be sure, he hasn’t been ace-quality so far. He’s struggling to locate (5.02 BB/9, after walking less than 1.8 per nine in 2007 and 2008), and has placed just 42.3% of his pitches in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average, 53.5% career average). So, to say there are no problems would be incorrect. But still, a .398 BABIP and a 58.6% strand rate have made Beckett look like a batting practice dummy as opposed to a very good hurler who’s experiencing some control issues. Don’t hit the panic button just yet.

Joe Blanton, Phillies

8.41 ERA, 6.08 FIP

This falls into the “damning with faint praise” category, no? Unlike the first three guys on this list, Blanton has been legitimately bad. Or has he? FIP is a great stat, but it falls victim to wacky HR performances. Blanton has posted decent strikeout and walk ratios (an uncharacteristic 8.85 K/9 and 3.10 BB/9), but he’s giving up taters at a pace that would make Brett Myers laugh: 2.66 HR/9, on the back of a 22.2 HR/FB%. For comparison, Blanton’s career HR/FB% is 8.5.

If we used Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) instead, Blanton comes in at 4.41. That’s actually better than his 2008 mark, and is the third-best figure of his career. Blanton has basically been the same mid-rotation Average Joe in 2009, but has given up homers like he’s throwing under-handed with a beach ball.

Dana Eveland, Athletics

5.95 ERA, 3.79 FIP

Eveland might actually be the reverse of Blanton: his FIP says he’s been better, but I’m not so sure. He’s both struck out and walked 5.49 batters per nine innings, and has yet to allow a homer in 19.2 innings. His BABIP is a loopy .400, but it’s hard to recommend a guy who lacks both the fine touch to paint the corners (career 4.57 BB/9) and ability to punch out hitters with great frequency (6.71 K/9). At least he’s kept the ball on the ground (59.7 GB%).

Back in November, Peter Bendix expressed his admiration for Florida Marlins right-hander Ricky Nolasco. As Peter put it:

“How many people realize just how good he was this year? Or, more importantly, how good he’s likely to be next year? Chances are, most of the people in your fantasy league are either unaware of Nolasco, or don’t fully appreciate how good he is.”

With most fantasy players squarely in draft mode right about now, this seems like a great time to hammer home the talent level and productivity of Florida’s covert ace.

Originally drafted by the Cubs in the 4th round of the 2001 draft, Nolasco often posted impressive numbers in the minors. By the age of 21, he had turned in a knockout campaign in AA (107 IP, 9.7 K/9, 3.11 BB/9). Still, the California native was sent back to the Southern League in 2005, where he once again struck out over a batter per inning (9.6 K/9) with better control (2.56 BB/9). Despite the impressive peripherals, Nolasco often flew under the radar in Chicago’s system, ranking 19th on Baseball America’s top 30 Cubs prospect list in 2005.

In December of ’05, the North Siders shipped Nolasco, Sergio Mitre and Renyel Pinto to the Marlins in an ill-fated deal for Juan Pierre. While Pierre would spend just one season in Chicago, Nolasco stepped into Florida’s rotation in 2006 and turned in a respectable rookie showing. In 140 frames, he punched out 6.36 batters per nine and walked 2.64 per nine. The flyball pitcher had some issues with the gopher ball (1.29 HR/9), but ended up with an adequate 4.68 FIP.

Unfortunately, Nolasco did not have the opportunity to build upon that work in 2007. Ricky’s entire season was essentially washed away by arm maladies, as he was placed on the DL with elbow inflammation in April and an elbow strain in May. He tossed only 21 innings for the Fish, posting a 5.44 FIP.

In 2008, Nolasco returned with a vengeance. After a ho-hum start, the 6-2, 220 pounder went on a tear during the summer months:

April: 26.1 IP, 13/9 K/BB
May: 34 IP, 25/13 K/BB
June: 35.1 IP, 29/7 K/BB
July: 39 IP, 37/5 K/BB
August: 43 IP, 51/4 K/BB (!)
September: 34.2 IP, 31/4 K/BB

In 212.1 innings, Nolasco posted a 3.77 FIP. He still gave up some taters (1.19 HR/9), but his peripherals were just sparkling: 7.88 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9. His 4.43 K/BB ratio ranked 7th among all starters, one spot ahead of stretch-run deity CC Sabathia. Ricky had always possessed a well-placed low-90’s fastball and a sharp mid-70’s hook, but he added another dimension to his repertoire in 2008 with a mid-80’s slider:

2006: FB 61.4% (91.5 MPH), SL 0.1% (82 MPH), CB 34.1% (74.9 MPH)
2008: FB 51.6% (91.2 MPH), SL 15.8% (83.9 MPH), CB 26.8% (75 MPH)

Supplementing those three offerings with an occasional changeup, Nolasco was more difficult to put the bat on the ball against. Opposing hitters swung at 28.6% of pitches Nolasco threw outside of the strike zone (22.1% in ’06), made less contact on those outside swings (64 O-Contact% in ’06, 60.7% in ’08) and made less contact overall (83 Contact% in ’06, 79.3% in ’08).

Ricky Nolasco does come with some risk. He has an elbow injury in his not-too-distant past, and he is coming off of a season where he threw considerably more than ever before: his prior highest inning total was 161.2, back in the Southern League in 2005. Despite those concerns, fantasy owners should take a long look at Florida’s underappreciated ace, with the hope that he avoids the trainer’s table. If he remains healthy, Nolasco could be a top-20 starter in 2009.

I’ll admit it: I have a mancrush on Ricky Nolasco.

How many people realize just how good he was this year? Or, more importantly, how good he’s likely to be next year? Chances are, most of the people in your fantasy league are either unaware of Nolasco, or don’t fully appreciate how good he is.

This year, Nolasco finished with a 3.52 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 212 innings pitched. That’s a very good season, but his overall numbers don’t reflect just how well Nolasco pitched for most of the season.

Going in to his start on June 15 against the Rays, Nolasco sported a 4.63 ERA, and had a 43/26 strikeout/walk ratio in 72 innings. However, on that fateful night in Tropicana Field, something changed. Perhaps it was a minor adjustment that paid major dividends, or the result of something Nolasco had been working on for years; either way, Nolasco was never the same after.

On June 15, Nolasco allowed two earned runs allowed in eight and two thirds innings, with one walk and 12 strikeouts. It was only the third time he had walked less than two batters (the second time was his previous start), and the first time he had struck out more than seven in a start.

After his start against the Rays, Nolasco had 19 more starts. He walked one or fewer batters in all but one of those starts. And he struck out seven or more batters in 10 of those starts. In fact, including his June 15 start, Nolasco finished the season by pitching 140 innings with a 2.95 ERA, striking out 143 and walking 16.

Think about that: 143 strikeouts and 16 walks.

For comparison, CC Sabathia pitched 130 innings with the Milwaukee Brewers this year, and had a K/BB ratio of 128/25. From June 15 on, Nolasco had a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate than Sabathia did in his time with the Brewers.

Of course, Nolasco may not be in the same class as CC Sabathia. Nolasco’s one weakness is that he is somewhat homer prone: he gave up 28 long balls this season, including 15 in his amazing 140-inning stretch to end the season. However, that is not an absurdly high total, and it is artificially enhanced by a rather high amount of balls in the air that became homers.

Nolasco allowed a homer on 10.6% of the fly balls hit against him. League average for a starter is somewhere around 11%. Furthermore, Nolasco plays in a spacious ballpark, suggesting that he should allow even fewer homers than average. Therefore, we can reasonably expect his homer rate to regress next year.

Nolasco had a 2.95 over his 140-inning stretch of dominance despite having a homer rate higher than it should have been.

Even if we assume that Nolasco can’t possibly be as dominant as he was from June 15 until the end of this season, we have every reason to expect that Ricky Nolasco is going to be one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball next season. And he has the potential to be one of the biggest steals of draft day.