Archive for Red Sox

One day removed from his first blown save since last August, Craig Kimbrel rebounded by striking out the side punctuating his eighth save this year. Clean innings by closers prove to be ideal along with fantasy owners appreciating Kimbrel’s uptick in velocity averaging 97.5 MPH with his fastball on Wednesday. This save also puts Kimbrel on the precipice of history closing in on being the fastest reliever to 300 saves by games, save opportunities and age. Kimbrel’s converted 299 saves in 329 chances during his career translating to a 90.9 success rate as a closer. He’s also recorded at least three strikeouts in two of his last three outings while rounding into form after an abbreviated spring training.

Putting to rest controversy in the short term in St. Louis regarding which pitcher gets the ninth inning, Bud Norris notched his sixth save of the year by retiring all four hitters he faced with two strikeouts. He’s recorded a win, save or hold in seven of his last 10 appearances along with five straight scoreless outings. Until Greg Holland regains confidence in his fastball, it’s remains Norris as the closer for the Cardinals. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 95

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Cincinnati Reds and the Boston Red Sox.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music Approximately 72 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

There’s no way to know how often players push through injuries they shouldn’t; it certainly happens with some frequency, but the times when one can pinpoint the exact moment a player should have been placed on the disabled list and wasn’t are few and far between.

I have no idea when in 2011 John Lackey tore his ulnar collateral ligament – if my life depended on guessing, I could talk myself into a late July tear, which would mean he made an additional 11 or 12 starts carrying an injury that used to be career-threatening – but I do know that it affected his performance rather negatively. The problem is that there’s still not a good way to determine how much of his abominable 2011 was due to the injury and how much was simply a bad season. Read the rest of this entry »

The future position of Xander Bogaerts has become a hot button issue this season. Baseball Prospectus’ prospect guru Kevin Goldstein cited a potential move down the defensive spectrum, possibly even out of the infield, as a reason the 19-year-old didn’t make his mid-season top 50 prospect list.* Goldstein’s rationale drew the ire of many despite the commonly overlooked fact that Kevin is far more connected and knowledgeable than just about everyone who hurled accusations at him. Why does Boegarts’s future position rile up so many? Rabid Red Sox fans and the fantasy implications. Read the rest of this entry »

Currently, I am playing in seven different roto leagues and if there is a common thread to be found in each one, it’s that just a handful of stolen bases can vault a number of teams up in the standings by an average of five points.  Unless you’re sitting at the top of the stolen base category or sitting in last by a ridiculously large margin, a boost in steals could mean the difference between languishing in the bottom third of your league standings and competing for the championship.  Here are a pair of outfielders who just might be able to help… Read the rest of this entry »

Pitching, pitching, pitching! That’s the focus of today’s Roto Riteup.

–  We talked a little bit about the closer situation in Boston earlier this week, but now things have gotten more complicated. Andrew Bailey is going to have surgery on his thumb, and there’s a good chance he now misses half the season or more. Whoever is name his replacement will have solid value throughout the season, whether it be Mark Melancon or Alfredo Aceves.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s Roto Riteup isn’t nearly exciting as your Monday is going to be. Monday’s are the best.

–  It looks as if Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey is going to start the year on the disabled list. Owners of Bailey should have been expecting a DL stint at some point, but starting the year on the bench can be a little less psychologically damaging. With Daniel Bard sliding into Boston’s rotation, one would assume setup man Mark Melancon would finish games in Bailey’s absence. However, there is growing speculation and reports that the Red Sox would hand to job over to Alfredo Aceves, the loser of the three man fight for Boston’s final rotation spot. You should probably pick up whoever gets the nod, especially with Bailey’s injury history.

Read the rest of this entry »

Seen on the face of things, this has not been a great season for Clay Buchholz. Neither his 3.99 ERA nor his 1.70 WHIP is attractive. He’s striking out a minuscule 5.63 batters per nine, which is especially disconcerting given his double-digit minor league strikeout rates. He’s walking 4.7 batters per nine, too. So why the renewed enthusiasm for the young pitcher in some circles?

First, his luck has never been even average in the past two years. Consider that his BABIP allowed for the past two seasons has been .366 and .328 respectively, this despite giving up 20.9% and 17.6% line drive rates in those two seasons. That last line drive rate could even be considered a good one.

To continue the “he’s better than he looks” theme, Clay’s velocity is still on it’s way up, and has increased in all three of his major league seasons. All of his offspeed stuff has rated positively in our linear weight system, and his fastball is improving. Buchholz has also had a good groundball rate that has gotten better progressively.

In fact, Keith Law addressed many of these positives in Buchholz’s game with one question and answer on his August 14 chat on ESPN.com:

Brian (MA)
Is Buchholz’s high gb% this year real? Seems to me his fastball has more sink to it this year, but was wondering your thoughts after seeing him in person.

Keith Law
I only saw one outing but I could believe it. His arm slot was a little lower and his fastball had more life than I’d seen in the past (and it was harder – 92-96).

Reading something like this, and taking into account his last 19 innings, in which he’s given up four earned runs, and had 33 groundballs to 18 flyballs, it seems obvious that we have to consult Pitch F/x to see if something has indeed changed recently.

His arm slot is certainly lower. Compare the release points from this game chart for the August 13 matchup with the Tigers to the same release points from the game chart for his July 22 matchup with the Rangers and you’ll see clearly that his release point is lower.

His usage rate on the fastball has also gone up this year. There might be two schools of thought here. If his offspeed stuff is so good, why use the fastball more? The other is more developmental: if he is to be a good pitcher someday, he’ll have to establish that fastball. At 94 MPH with more horizontal movement this year (up over an inch), Buchholz’ fastball seems to be gaining steam. Perhaps the second school has it correctly.

One thing comes clear if you look at the movement and velocity charts for this pitcher. This is not a complete product. Just look at all the movement changes (every pitch gained or lost around an inch of movement either horizontally or vertically from 2008 to 2009) and the velocity changes (again, every pitch gained almost a mile per hour from 2008 to 2009) and you’ll see that he is still in flux.

Consider his slider. Last year, he showed a 79.8 MPH slider with 0.9 inches of horizontal movement and 5.1 inches of vertical movement. This year that same slider is 84 MPH and has 2.4 inches of horizontal movement and 0.9 inches of vertical movement. Perhaps we are still waiting to see the real Clay Buchholz.

In 2008, Kevin Youkilis had a season completely out of line with what he did previously. Everyone focused on the home run power, as his 29 homers matched his combined total from 2007 and 2008. But Youkilis also enjoyed a career-best average last season, as he posted a .312 mark. His previous high was the .288 he posted in 2007.

Because of his big 2008, Youkilis was one of the more difficult players to project. The Bill James forecast was the most optimistic, and it had him with a .289 average and 23 home runs. The CHONE system had him with a .286 average and 18 home runs.

Of course, Youkilis is off to a great start here in 2009. One of the biggest grey areas in fantasy is determining when we can project that it is more than a hot start and more likely to be something to last the whole season.

I think we may have reached that point with Youkilis and his average.

I took all of the players in 2008 who qualified for the batting title and who batted plus or minus five points from the .286 average that CHONE predicted. I came up with a group of 26 players. Then I took all of the players from this group and counted how many hits they had through 75 at-bats last season.

Our 26 players ranged from 16 to 27 hits in their first 75 at-bats last season. It is not a perfect bell curve but the right side of it does display a standard downward-sloping tail as you can see by the crude chart below:

	x										
	x				x						
	x				x		x				
	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x			
x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27

I came up with an average of 20.7 hits and a standard deviation of 3.1 for this group. So, two standard deviations gives us a high and low of 15 and 27 hits. So, for this definition of a .286 hitter, 95 percent of the time he should have between 15 and 27 hits in 75 ABs.

Youkilis ended play last night with 74 at-bats and 30 hits, meaning he falls outside of our 95 percent range. Our most likely conclusion is that he is a better hitter than the CHONE projection prior to the start of the season.

This is just a first step and I have no projection on what Youkilis will end up hitting in 2009. ZiPS projected Youkilis to bat .288 this season. Dan Szymborski just came out with an update to ZiPS based on 2009 stats. He now projects Youkilis to bat .298 for the rest of the season and finish with a .313 average.

Jacoby Ellsbury finished third in the majors with 50 SB last year. Along with his 98 runs scored and his .280 batting average, Ellsbury posted a $21.55 dollar value last year, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. That was the 32nd-best season by a fantasy hitter last year. The mock drafters are not completely sold on Ellsbury, giving him an ADP of 57 according to the latest update over at Mock Draft Central.

Ellsbury made 129 starts last year, a figure that should go up with Coco Crisp no longer around to siphon off playing time. That should translate into better counting numbers, including steals. As for his average, all five of the projection systems see him besting his .280 of a season ago. Last year, Ellsbury had a .314 BABIP, a reasonable number given his speed, groundball tendencies (51.7%) and line drive rate (20.3%).

Ichiro Suzuki is a similar player to Ellsbury. Here are their fantasy lines from 2008:

IS – .310-6-42-103-43
JE – .280-9-47-98-50

Now, 30 points of average is a big difference but is it worth 29 slots of ADP? Certainly, Ichiro has more of a track record and could realistically post an even higher AVG in 2009. But Ellsbury could see a boost in his numbers thanks to both the expected playing time bump and the normal improvement from a young player. Would a 60-SB, 110-R season from Ellsbury be a surprise?

Ellsbury is not going to be a big threat in either HR or RBI. But with above average production in runs along with one of the best SB totals in the game he should provide great value for fantasy players, especially given his current ADP.