Archive for Red Sox

It seems the more we think to know about the Red Sox bullpen, perhaps the less we do? Matt Barnes opened the season as the highest leverage reliever, capable of appearing at any point when needed by manager Alex Cora. Last night, this happened, but with Ryan Brasier entering the game in the top of the seventh with runners on second and third base with two outs, taking on the A’s most dangerous hitter, Khris Davis. Brasier retired Davis with a strikeout, then threw a clean eighth getting the win in relief for his efforts. After Boston extended its lead, Hector Velasquez opened the ninth but only recorded one out while loading the bases on a hit and two walks. This pressed Barnes into duty and he responded with his second save. Read the rest of this entry »

By now, we have all become aware of the home run explosion that’s occurred in the early weeks and the appearance of a juiced ball. High-leverage relievers have not been immune to the deluge of dingers. Josh Hader, Matt Barnes and Kenley Jansen all allowed home runs on Sunday that led to a loss or a blown save. The three normally-reliable relievers have teamed up to allow seven home runs over their last 8.1 innings combined. Hader has allowed homers in each of his last three appearances, Barnes has allowed one in each of his last two outings, and Jansen has given up two homers over his last three appearances.

Despite the rash of long balls, it’s far too soon to be concerned about any of the three. Hader is still missing bats at a stratospheric rate, sporting a 22.8 percent SwStr%. However, his flyball rate of 72.2 percent is even more otherworldly. It’s nearly double the major league average of 36.7 percent. Not only is Hader letting the ball get lofted, but hitters are making a lot of hard contact on those airborne balls, averaging 97.4 mph in exit velocity (per Baseball Savant). As he accumulates more innings, this could become a real problem barring some serious regression, even with his healthy whiff rate.
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Having recorded his second save of the season, Ryan Brasier has surged into lead for saves in the Red Sox’s bullpen. However, there will be no such surging into the lead spot in the Red Sox’s portion of the closer grid.

It appears that Alex Cora may trust Matt Barnes to handle the highest leverage situations, and over the long haul, that could translate into more saves for him than for Brasier. On Sunday, as soon as the Red Sox took a 1-0 lead against the Diamondbacks on Mitch Moreland’s homer in the top of the seventh inning, Cora installed Barnes to pitch in the bottom of the inning to face the 4-5-6 portion of the Arizona order. He stayed on to pitch the eighth inning as well and retired all six batters he faced. With the top of the order due, Brasier came in to finish off the Diamondbacks and did so, allowing only a David Peralta double.
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A somewhat wild Friday evening will leave some fantasy owners sleepless about Seattle. Hunter Strickland will undergo an MRI on Saturday after experiencing tightness in the back of his shoulder. It could be inflammation, but resulted in Strickland blowing his first save of the year after convincing his manager to leave him in. Strickland allowed two hits, including a three-run home run to Mitch Moreland, and a walk in one-third of an inning. Roenis Elias finished the ninth inning getting a strikeout versus the two hitters he faced. If Strickland does land on the injured list, this could signal a committee approach in Seattle until Anthony Swarzak returns.

Hard to say which right-handed reliever will emerge, but Matt Festa or Cory Gearrin could get save chances along with either Zac Rosscup or Elias if facing a left-handed lean in the final stanza. Plan accordingly. Read the rest of this entry »

Note: As was the case in a previous analysis of Statcast measures and their correlation with power metrics for hitters, I owe a debt of gratitude to Alex Chamberlain. He did a lot of heavy lifting for this column, running the correlations and discussing interpretations with me.

It won’t be the first or last time, but I did a silly thing on Twitter. In announcing a pick for the Pitcher List Experts Mock, I decided to tout the player I chose by citing one of his achievements, as captured by a Statcast metric.

Fun fact: Trevor Williams has the 3rd-lowest avg. exit velocity allowed on flies and liners over the last two seasons (min. 400 BBE), behind only deGrom and Kluber. Just took him in Rd 21 of the #PLExpertsMock. @JustinMasonFWFB, you’re up!

— Al Melchior (@almelchiorBB) December 13, 2018

(Justin, by the way, made his pick very promptly.)
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By the end of this weekend, we may have seen our last innings of baseball for this season, but we will almost certainly get at least one more chance to watch Nathan Eovaldi. (I am personally just rooting for more baseball.) He has grabbed the spotlight this postseason, excelling in a pair of starts and in three relief appearances in which he set up for Craig Kimbrel. If needed, Eovaldi could be used as the bridge to Kimbrel again in Game 3, but if not, then we may see him as the Red Sox’s Game 4 starter.

It’s not only for the potential of postseason heroics that it’s worth taking one last peek at Eovaldi in 2018. It’s been a breakout season for the 28-year-old, though his 6-7 record and 3.81 ERA would suggest otherwise. In his first season back from his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi was better than ever in just about every regard aside from ground ball and home run rates and ERA, and the latter was inflated by a 67.3 percent strand rate. His walk (4.4 percent), swinging strike (10.7 percent) and O-Swing (33.9 percent) rates were all career bests, and his 22.2 percent strikeout rate was nearly four percentage points better than his previous high water mark (18.5 percent in 2016).

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With attention shifting to football for many fantasy owners, remaining vigilant with baseball will be important when projecting roles for next season. For example, Ty Buttrey notched the first save of his career last night for the Angels striking out one in a clean outing. His role continues to grow in high leverage and Buttrey’s been scoreless in eight of his nine appearances this season. He, along with Jose Alvarez own the best peripheral numbers in the Angels bullpen over the last 30 days. As for Buttrey, he’s pitched 9.1 innings since his promotion with a 0.96 ERA, 1.97 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 10:3 K:BB, 16.9 swinging strike percentage, an ERA- of 23 and limiting contact to 65.5 percent. Keep in mind, Blake Parker recorded the previous two saves for the Angels but has not pitched since September third. This could just be a preview of next year for Buttrey, but if he moves into a share of the closer role, he’s an intriguing pickup for the remainder of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

When the Nationals and Phillies got together for a Tuesday night game, you figured you were getting some bullpen drama. But for the Red Sox and Marlins? Who needs closers when you have the majors’ highest-scoring team facing off against the 29th-highest scoring team?

Well, it turns out, the Red Sox and Marlins do.
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After the Phillies announced there would be a committee approach to the ninth inning, fantasy owners should worry. Gabe Kapler’s still plying his trade as a first year manager armed with an emerging bullpen. Hector Neris started the year in the traditional closer role, but lost the role following a blown save last Friday. Edubray Ramos recorded his first save on Sunday yet no clarity arose. On Wednesday, Philadelphia started with Ramos in the top of the ninth in a save situation and he responded by striking out both hitters he faced on six pitches, both being right-handed batters. Then, they brought in Neris to pitch to Chris Davis, a left-handed slugger, who grounded out to second base securing the win. For the Phillies, the win will be the important factor, not preventing Ramos or Neris from notching a save. This will be important to remember when trying to chase saves in this bullpen going forward, especially given Ramos has limited left-handed hitters to a .200 batting average against this year compared .184 for Neris. No matter how the team spins the ninth, it’s going to be match-up based which will mean headaches for the saves chasers looking at this bullpen. All being told, it may be easier to avoid until clarity arises.

One day removed from suggesting a fluid bullpen, Atlanta provided Arodys Vizcaino with a redemption save chance last night. Vizcaino responded with his first clean save of the season. It’s Vizcaino’s eighth save and even though he has his warts, he’s closed out 20 of 23 save chances dating back to July 30th of last year. Of course, overlooking his 10 walks in 20.2 innings of work this year would be shortsighted, but dropping him due to the latest committee warning would be as well. A.J. Minter garnered the win in relief working one inning giving up a hit and striking out one. Many will keep tabs on Dan Winkler, and rightly so, due to his minuscule 0.98 ERA and 0.65 WHIP with 27 strikeouts versus 67 total batters faced (40.3 strikeout percentage) in 18.1 innings. With Vizcaino working the last two games, perhaps Winkler will get an audition on Thursday? Read the rest of this entry »

Anytime news breaks regarding an injury or the need for a change at closer, the speculation ensues. With Toronto’s Roberto Osuna placed on administrative leave by baseball, adding the correct Blue Jay reliever means a chance at procuring saves. Some focused on Seung-Hwan Oh who owns closing experience, but he pitched the sixth inning with his team down by one. Others took a chance on John Axford, he’s been pitching very well of late with seven straight scoreless outings over 9.1 innings with eight strikeouts and only one walk. Alas, he worked the seventh inning and his ability to work more than one inning could keep him out of the save mix going forward unless he records a “Hader”.

So, it boiled down to Ryan Tepera or Tyler Clippard. Manager John Gibbons opted for the closer experience with Tepera keeping his role in the eighth inning. Tepera garnered the win giving up a walk with a strikeout after Toronto rallied for four runs in the bottom of the frame. Then, Tyler Clippard entered for his first save of the year giving up a hit with two strikeouts. Over his last six appearances, Clippard’s registered three holds, a win and a save allowing four hits, an unearned run and a walk with 10 strikeouts. Although regression will happen with Clippard, it’s his role to lose with Toronto until more clarity emerges with Osuna’s pending suspension.

It’s hard to believe, but Craig Kimbrel’s never recorded a save requiring him to get more than four outs. He tried again to make history last night, but not only blew the save, his outing led to a Red Sox loss. Many will question his entering the game so soon, but with it on the line, Alex Cora made the right move, it just did not work out. Kimbrel entered with runners on first and third with one out giving up a triple to Brett Gardner to turn the tide then Aaron Judge hit a home run to center before Kimbrel retired the last two by strikeouts to end the inning. In spite of the blown save, Kimbrel’s been trending in the right direction of late. Speaking of which, Aroldis Chapman closed the door notching his ninth save giving up a hit and striking out three working on back-to-back days. Same goes for Chad Green, so if a save chance presents itself in the Bronx tonight, plan on David Robertson to get the opportunity.  Read the rest of this entry »