Archive for Red Sox

The Red Sox cleared up one major source of uncertainty on Tuesday by naming Ron Roenicke as their interim manager, and then on Wednesday, the new skipper lifted another cloud of uncertainty. Roenicke told reporters that he expects to name Brandon Workman as the team’s closer. His predecessor, Alex Cora, did not settle on a closer in the first half of 2019, with six different relievers recording saves and four relievers notching multiple saves. He stuck with Workman in the second half, and from the All-Star break forward, he recorded 13 of his 16 saves with a 2.01 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 49 strikeouts and no home runs allowed over 31.1 innings.

In making his announcement, Roenicke explained his decision by saying, “I think with what he did last year, he deserves that shot to be the closer.” This may be the biggest understatement of the offseason. In 2019, Workman was not just the Red Sox’s most effective reliever. By one measure — wOBA allowed — he was arguably the most effective pitcher in the majors. Workman led all pitchers with at least 50 innings with a .208 wOBA, and the margin wasn’t slim. The next closest was Tyler Glasnow at .222, and Kirby Yates was the only other pitcher with a wOBA below .230.
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For each of the previous installments of this series, where I have compared the 2019 seasons of two players on different trajectories who achieved similar Roto value, I have run a poll. The assumption behind the polls is that the two players could be similarly valued for 2020. I’ve used the polls to get a pulse on which player would be viewed as the better fantasy performer — the one on the upswing or the one who just had a “down” year?

In comparing Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez, whose 5×5 Roto values were separated by one-tenth of a dollar, there is no mystery as to which player will be targeted earlier on draft day. In the #2EarlyMocks, Martinez ranked seventh among outfielders with an 18.6 ADP, while Soler ranked 30th with a 97.3 ADP. In the recently-completed Pitcher List Experts Mock that I participated in, Martinez was the 20th player chosen overall, and Soler stayed on the board until the 73rd pick. Soler may have slightly outearned Martinez this year, but the Red Sox outfielder/DH has had success for so much longer that it is not at all surprising that fantasy owners would not view them as equivalent.
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The Mets’ 11-10 loss to the Nationals on Tuesday night, as heartbreaking as it was, merely reinforced the team’s bullpen hierarchy. Seth Lugo has been used consistently as the closer for the last two-and-a-half weeks (including in the top of the ninth inning in tie games), and he was in line for a two-inning save against the Nationals. He relieved Jacob deGrom in the bottom of the eighth inning after the Mets’ starter gave up a two-run homer to Juan Soto that cut the lead to 5-4, and Lugo retired all three batters he faced. However, when the Mets blew the game open with five runs in the top of the ninth, the save opportunity was gone, and Mickey Callaway opted to let Paul Sewald finish out the game.

In retrospect, it’s easy to say that Callaway should have left Lugo in, as Sewald retired only one of five batters he saw, and he bequeathed a 10-6 lead with runners on first and second base to Luis Avilán. Yet Sewald had been superb since rejoining the Mets from Triple-A Syracuse, allowing one run over 7.1 innings with 13 strikeouts, one walk and four hits allowed. After Sewald departed, Avilán gave up a single to Juan Soto, so Edwin Díaz entered with still only one out and the bases loaded.
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Entering game play on the final day of August, many bullpens will enter September fatigued. With rosters expanding on Sunday, reinforcements will arrive but some teams, it may be too little too late. As for last night, a 15 inning game between the Red Sox and Angels ended in Andrew Cashner’s 11th win. He worked four scoreless innings issuing two walks and striking out three. Brandon Workman entered his save chance last night with a 1.35 ERA his previous 13 appearances and an impressive 21 strikeouts against three walks. After stranding two inherited runners in the eighth inning, Workman returned for the ninth looking for his 10th save. However, Workman walked Brian Goodwin and Mike Trout before getting a fielder’s choice ground out. This left runners on the corners with one out. A single to left field, mishandled badly by J.D. Martinez allowed both runners to score. As of this writing, they both count as earned runs resulting in Workman’s sixth blown save. After the tying run scored, Workman intentionally walked Kole Calhoun before striking out David Fletcher. Then another intentional pass to Andrelton Simmons preceding an inning ending ground out by Matt Thaiss. Read the rest of this entry »

The Red Sox’s bullpen has been among the most confusing ones for fantasy owners to figure out all season. In Tuesday night’s game against the Indians, we had more twists and turns to follow, but ultimately, much of what happened may not have a lasting impact.

The first surprise was seeing Nathan Eovaldi enter the game with one out in the bottom of the eighth inning with a 6-5 lead and a runner on second base. Eovaldi was supposed to begin his return to the Red Sox’s rotation on Wednesday as the scheduled starter for the series finale. Alex Cora has not abandoned that plan, but he put Eovaldi on a slight detour on his path back to a starting role because of what he called “probably the biggest inning of what we were trying to accomplish.” Eovaldi validated Cora’s decision, as he kept the slim margin intact by retiring Roberto Pérez and Jason Kipnis.
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The Rangers have not had a save opportunity since June 27, including in Sunday’s loss to the Astros. Yet Shawn Kelley, who had not pitched in a game in nine days, was warming up to enter the game with a three-run deficit in the eighth inning with two outs. Kelley felt soreness in his right biceps while throwing his warmup pitches and exited the game before throwing an official pitch. He is now expected to undergo an MRI.

Given that the Rangers have gone close to a month without a save opportunity, it’s hard to get a handle on what Chris Woodward’s preferences might be for handling save situations if Kelley has to miss time. Also, with the Rangers having lost seven games in a row and falling in the wild card standings, we can’t count on any particular reliever still being with the team on the other side of the July 31 trade deadline. However, it is highly unlikely they would trade Jose Leclerc, who signed a four-year, $14.75 million contract back in March, and it is also hard to see them dealing Chris Martin, who won’t be arbitration eligible until 2021.
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It’s been an up and down season for Luke Jackson transitioning to the bullpen for Atlanta. Last night, he allowed a two out two run home run to Victor Robles resulting in his seventh blown save and a tied game in the ninth inning. Every time it seems like Jackson rights the ship, another blip surfaces on the horizon. Read the rest of this entry »

Thursday’s schedule did not produce many notable performances from closers, but it did produce one from a possible future closer. Nathan Eovaldi made his first appearance for Triple-A Pawtucket, and he pitched a scoreless inning. He struck out the side but also issued a walk.

This would appear to be the only rehab appearance Eovaldi is going to make. He has already joined the Red Sox, who are in Baltimore for their weekend series, and he could be activated as soon as Saturday. While earlier reports had suggested that Eovaldi was going to be used as the Red Sox’s closer, Alex Cora has only specified that he plans to use the converted starter in high-leverage situations. Eovaldi’s imminent activation might not mean it’s the end of Brandon Workman’s recent run as the team’s primary closer. Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree, who have combined for six saves, may still figure into saves situations as well.
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Pitchers who are adept at getting swinging strikes but not strikeouts are one of fantasy baseball’s mild annoyances. Many of us have used SwStr% as a shorthand for strikeout potential, but a few pitchers with high whiff rates fail to meet our expectations, usually because they get called strikes at a low rate. Prior to this season, Jake Odorizzi was one of those pitchers. Joe Musgrove (11.3 percent SwStr%, 19.3 percent K% in 2019) still is.

Eduardo Rodriguez does not fit this category exactly, but in the context of his past performances, he seems to be a strikeout underachiever this year. The Red Sox’s lefty entered this season with back-to-years of a SwStr% above 11 percent, outpacing the major league average for starters by more than a percentage point in both campaigns. His strikeout rates were far above average: 25.8 percent in 2017 and 26.4 percent in 2018. Yet Rodriguez achieved these rates with below-average called strike rates, with a 16.7 percent mark in 2017 and a 15.3 percent rate last season.
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Desperation’s a stinky cologne remains one of many personal favorite movie quotes, courtesy of Super Troopers. With Boston’s bullpen under constant scrutiny due to usage and performance, it appears a new sheriff will occupy the ninth inning when healthy enough to return:

According to sources, the Red Sox plan on using Nathan Eovaldi as their closer when he returns from the Injured List. https://t.co/cxrS0ZErV0

— Tom Caron (@TomCaron) July 2, 2019

Nathan Eovaldi made three appearances as a reliever in last year’s World Series working eighth innings giving up three hits, one earned run and a walk with six strikeouts. Signed to be a starting pitcher, and even speaking to this prior to agreeing to a free agent deal to return to Boston, the lack of clarity at the end of games along with his injury concerns prompt this move. However, it remains to be seen how often Eovaldi will be able to work as a reliever. Perhaps he gets a Seth Lugo type usage pattern of requiring necessary days off after working and will Eovaldi be able to handle work on consecutive days? As of now, plan on Brandon Workman potentially working the ninth until the All-Star break but if Eovaldi’s been dropped and desperate for saves, stashing him now makes sense for the second half.

It’s been a remarkable year for Josh Hader. He’s already saved 20 games, owns a ridiculous 52.4 strikeout percentage (78 strikeouts of 149 total batters faced) and only one blown save this year with three holds as well. Last night, Hader only recorded a hold working the eighth inning and giving up a two run home run to Eugenio Suarez. Like three outcome hitters, it seems like Hader also produces three outcomes, a strikeout, a walk or a home run. Hader’s only yielded 15 hits all season in 41.2 innings but seven have been home runs. Relying almost exclusively on his fastball, Hader allows hard contact if he misses his spot with batters swinging from their heels to produce contact. This results in Hader’s 24.4 swinging strike percentage with only a 58.3 contact percentage against, but also his 19.4 home run per fly ball rate of the 61 percent of fly balls he generates. Suffice it to say, fantasy owners will accept Hader’s propensity to give up a home run for the strikeouts and saves. In fact, the homer by Suarez snapped a 11.1 inning scoreless streak by Hader and it’s the first home run (and hit) he’s allowed since June first.

After Milwaukee extended the lead back to three runs, they decided to sit down Hader rather than deploy him for a second inning. Jeremy Jeffress entered for the save chance giving up a single to Jose Iglesias then with two outs, Iglesias moved up on defensive indifference and scored on a single by Phillip Ervin before Jose Peraza grounded out to end the game. With a need for the bridge to firm up leading to Hader, the Brewers need Jeffress to round into form. With this outing, he’s allowed a run in four of his last five contests and in five of his last seven growing his ERA from 2.52 to its present 4.18. This, along with the reemergence of Matt Albers as detailed by Al Melchior in yesterday’s Bullpen Report, will continue to evolve. Especially with Milwaukee in on most relievers rumored on the trade block.

As for the Reds, a tough night for David Hernandez from a performance and personal standpoint. People often do not account for the human side from a player’s perspective. As a former teammate of Tyler Skaggs, Hernandez took the mound and did not pitch well in his high leverage moment. Not only did Hernandez suffer his second blown save, also his fourth loss allowing three hits, three earned runs and two walks. This tweet from Reds beat writer R. Trent Rosencrans seemed to encapsulate the night for Hernandez:

David Hernandez stood tall, answered every question about his outing. He took blame. Called it awful, said his mechanics are off. The whole 9. When asked about former teammate Tyler Skaggs, he got emotional and couldn't speak. It was a tough day for him way beyond the game

— C. Trent Rosecrans (@ctrent) July 2, 2019

With deference to the Angels, Skaggs family and the baseball community, thoughts and prayers to all. It should also be noted both Amir Garrett and Raisel Iglesias were not available for last night’s game leaving the Reds shorthanded against the slew of left-handed hitters in the Brewers lineup. This culminated in the game for Hernandez giving up an RBI single to Christian Yelich and a sacrifice fly to Mike Moustakas. Due to the recent fluidity of the Cincinnati bullpen, the high leverage moments remain in flux with Michael Lorenzen and Iglesias sharing recent save chances along with the potential for Garrett to face lefties in the ninth going forward.

Never to be overlooked in the world of fluid bullpens, Jose Alvarado resurfaced in Tampa Bay recording his first save since May 26th working around a double by Jonathan Villar striking out two in a scoreless ninth. It’s Alvarado’s seventh save of the season and an encouraging outing. He’s struggled with command and wild pitches so far but if Alvarado can right the ship, he shores up the Rays bullpen. With Diego Castillo slated to rejoin the team in Baltimore after the All-Star break, perhaps the team will add to its depth without needing to make a trade. Emilio Pagan locked down his sixth hold firing a clean eighth inning with two strikeouts. He also faced Renato Nunez, Pedro Severino and Hanser Alberto, who fare better versus southpaws paving the way for the Alvarado save chance. Pagan’s ability to work multiple innings and in high leverage moments at the team’s need probably caps his save opportunities but he’s an invaluable member of this bullpen. His last save occurred on June 21st and Pagan could receive another save prior to the break hence his position in the closer grid, even though it’s tenuous based on usage patterns.

Nothing frustrates fantasy owners more than a closer getting work in during a blowout. Case in point, Craig Kimbrel pitching in Pittsburgh last night. Kimbrel entered a game which the Cubs trailed by 10 runs and proceeded to allow a lead-off home run in the eighth to Jose Osuna along with a double to Adam Frazier and a two out, two run home run to Josh Bell. All told, Kimbrel yielded three hits and three earned runs with two strikeouts. It’s merely a blip in terms of his role as the closer and Chicago used Daniel Descalso to pitch the seventh. So, getting work in may make sense, but it rarely goes great when a closer works in situations without meaning.

With a very limited slate on Monday night, there’s no need for quick hits with most situations already covered. Have a safe and Happy Fourth of July!