Archive for Rays

After the Phillies announced there would be a committee approach to the ninth inning, fantasy owners should worry. Gabe Kapler’s still plying his trade as a first year manager armed with an emerging bullpen. Hector Neris started the year in the traditional closer role, but lost the role following a blown save last Friday. Edubray Ramos recorded his first save on Sunday yet no clarity arose. On Wednesday, Philadelphia started with Ramos in the top of the ninth in a save situation and he responded by striking out both hitters he faced on six pitches, both being right-handed batters. Then, they brought in Neris to pitch to Chris Davis, a left-handed slugger, who grounded out to second base securing the win. For the Phillies, the win will be the important factor, not preventing Ramos or Neris from notching a save. This will be important to remember when trying to chase saves in this bullpen going forward, especially given Ramos has limited left-handed hitters to a .200 batting average against this year compared .184 for Neris. No matter how the team spins the ninth, it’s going to be match-up based which will mean headaches for the saves chasers looking at this bullpen. All being told, it may be easier to avoid until clarity arises.

One day removed from suggesting a fluid bullpen, Atlanta provided Arodys Vizcaino with a redemption save chance last night. Vizcaino responded with his first clean save of the season. It’s Vizcaino’s eighth save and even though he has his warts, he’s closed out 20 of 23 save chances dating back to July 30th of last year. Of course, overlooking his 10 walks in 20.2 innings of work this year would be shortsighted, but dropping him due to the latest committee warning would be as well. A.J. Minter garnered the win in relief working one inning giving up a hit and striking out one. Many will keep tabs on Dan Winkler, and rightly so, due to his minuscule 0.98 ERA and 0.65 WHIP with 27 strikeouts versus 67 total batters faced (40.3 strikeout percentage) in 18.1 innings. With Vizcaino working the last two games, perhaps Winkler will get an audition on Thursday? Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 95

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Texas Rangers and the Tampa Bay Rays.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music Approximately 62 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

Today’s Roto Riteup is a Jack of all trades, but a master of none.

• With Kyle Farnsworth being transferred to the 60-day DL, Fernando Rodney’s hold on the job only grows stronger. Rodney has been shockingly great this year, which could be due to magic voodoo or his increased reliance on his two-seam fastball. I still don’t have the utmost confidence in Rodney, but I’d feel pretty good if I owned him right about now.

Read the rest of this entry »

Pitching, pitching, pitching! That’s the focus of today’s Roto Riteup.

–  We talked a little bit about the closer situation in Boston earlier this week, but now things have gotten more complicated. Andrew Bailey is going to have surgery on his thumb, and there’s a good chance he now misses half the season or more. Whoever is name his replacement will have solid value throughout the season, whether it be Mark Melancon or Alfredo Aceves.

Read the rest of this entry »

Carlos Pena followed up his monster 2007 season with a disappointing year. Last year’s highlights for Pena were hitting 31 HR and driving in 102, which led to a $10 season according to Last Player Picked. The mock draft crowd is expecting a bounce back season in 2009 for the Tampa Bay slugger, as they have given him an ADP of 65 according to the latest rankings at Mock Draft Central.

Pena has great power, but it was unlikely that he was going to match his 2007 HR output. That year, he had a 29.1 percent HR/FB ratio, the fourth-highest mark in the majors. His career mark in the category is 19.7 percent. As expected, Pena fell off in 2008, dropping to an 18.8 percent mark last year, although he got a boost by hitting a career-best 50.3 percent of his batted balls in the air.

Another area where Pena was likely to regress last year was in his AVG. In 2007, he posted a career-high with a .282 mark. A lifetime .251 hitter, Pena produced a .247 average last season. Looking forward, none of the five projection systems show Pena coming anywhere close to his 2007 AVG. Marcel, which uses a weighted-average of the past three seasons, has the highest mark at .261 while the rest have him in the .250s.

It is likely that Pena will be below average in both AVG and SB so he really has to make hay in the other three categories. But there is no reason to expect the 31-year old to come close to duplicating the power numbers from his career-year of 2007. Plus he has never scored a ton of runs, with a career high of 99.

Add it all together and we have an overvalued player. Last year Pena was the 17th-best player with 1B eligibility, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. He has the 10th-best ADP for a first-base eligible player this year. The Bill James projection, usually the most optimistic, has Pena with a .254-31-90-77-2 line.

I would expect Chris Davis, Carlos Delgado and Joey Votto to all beat that line. Garrett Atkins, Aubrey Huff and Derrek Lee could post better numbers, and it would not surprise me. The bottom line is not to reach for Pena if you get shut out from the top first basemen.

Carl Crawford gives owners high average and lots of steals as well as contributing in the other three categories. This led him to an ADP of 15 prior to the 2008 season. But finger and hamstring injuries led to a sub-par year for Crawford. This year, mock drafters are being cautious with the Tampa Bay outfielder, giving him an ADP of 29.

All four of the major projection systems see Crawford bouncing back to an average in the .290s this season. The difference is in how valuable they see that being worth. CHONE sees Crawford’s .298 as the 17th-best mark in the majors. Marcel shows his .292 as the 46th-best while Oliver has his .292 as the 31st-best.

The projection systems also show Crawford with 30+ SB. He fares better in this metric, as CHONE has him tied for seventh in the majors with 38 steals and Marcel has him tied for ninth with 32.

The problem is that these are Crawford’s best categories. He needs an average solidly-above .290 and SB totals well over 35 to merit his current ADP. That is because the predicted HR power has simply not materialized for Crawford. Only once in his six seasons as a regular has he cleared double digits in HR/FB rate. That came in 2006 when his rate was 12 percent and he hit a career-high 18 homers.

Before you spend a late-second, early third-round pick on Crawford, be sure you are comfortable projecting the stats for him to return that value. His career-best average is .315, his top mark in runs scored is 104 and his best RBI season is 81. And before you decide he is a lock to steal 50 bases because of his fabulous success ratios, ask how likely it is that Tampa Bay will allow him to attempt the 60-70 steals he has previously in his career, especially since he no longer slots in as the team’s leadoff hitter.

According to The Fantasy Baseball Price Guide over at Last Player Picked, Evan Longoria put up a $10 value in a standard 12-team mixed league last year in his rookie season. That tied him with Troy Glaus for the 12th-most-valuable third baseman in fantasy in 2008. This year, Longoria is the pre-season consensus as the third-best pick among third basemen, trailing only Alex Rodriguez and David Wright. He has an ADP of 19 according to the latest update over at Mock Draft Central.

Are we getting ahead of ourselves in anointing Longoria as a fantasy stud?

Longoria’s ISO of .259 was the 10th-highest mark in the majors last year. It was also significantly above what he did in either Double-A or Triple-A. Longoria’s slugging was helped by a 19.4 percent HR/FB rate, the 13th-best mark in MLB. Can he keep these two marks that high in his sophomore season, especially given his 27.2 percent K%, the 12th-highest in baseball?

And even if the power is real, how confident are you that he can improve upon last year’s .272 average? That came with a .318 BABIP.

The projection systems are typically unreliable with young players. Understanding that caveat, let’s use the Bill James one, since that has the most optimistic line for Longoria. That has him putting up these numbers:

.280-37-116-102-9

Last year, Adrian Gonzalez put up this line and was the 30th-best hitter in fantasy.

.279-36-119-103-0

Now, obviously the SB difference should not be ignored, nor should the difference in position from Gonzalez at 1B and Longoria at 3B. But at least some of those differences are canceled out by adding pitchers into the equation. Eight pitchers last year had a dollar value greater than or equal to the $22 figure posted by Gonzalez.

Do the net differences cancel out 19 spots in draft order?

It is fun to have young superstars on your team and Longoria certainly fits the bill. But ask yourself if you want to overdraft him by one-to-two rounds in order to have him on your squad. Because that is the current premium that owners are placing on him over his most optimistic projection.