Archive for Randy Wolf

We’ve seen the move enough over the last two years that the math is clear: Struggling young fly-ball pitcher from a tough American League division + trade to Arizona = Fantasy relevance! So will that math magic work for Armando Galarraga?

Not so fast. The first difference is immediately obvious upon looking at the player cards of the respective trio. Galarraga has a career 5.7 strikeout rate with a peak of 6.35 in 2008 – Dan Hudson showed a 6.75 K/9 in Chicago and was consistently over one per inning in the minor league leagues, and Ian Kennedy had a 6.49 K/9 in New York and also had a strikeout rate over one per inning in the minors.

But, say you believe in Galarraga’s peak strikeout rate despite its precipitous drop (to 4.61 K/9 last year), there’s still the matter of his ground-ball rate. All of the three are fly-ballers (not fly ballers), but here Galarraga (40.4% ground balls career) comes out (incredibly) ahead of the pack when compared to Hudson (34.2% ground balls career) and Kennedy (36.9% ground balls career). So… he strikes out a few less but gets a few more grounders, maybe he should be included in the trio as interesting late-round picks in upcoming drafts?

Thta’s still a negative, Ghostrider. It’s a matter of age and proximity to their minor league records. When Hudson made the leap to Arizona, he’d only accrued 34 1/3 major-league innings and 23 years on this earth – Kennedy 59 2/3 and 25 respectively. Galarraga is 28 years old and has pitched 475 1/3 major league innings. He’s no lapsed prospect that hasn’t gotten the chance to perform – he’s a journeyman just trying to hang on.

The bounce back won’t look like Hudson’s or Kennedy’s for Galarraga, who has pitched to a 5.17 FIP over his career, but could it look okay anyway? Take his career strikeout rate (5.7), strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.62) and ground-ball rate (40.4%) and look for comparative qualified starters in the National League last year, and it’s not pretty. Being as good as Randy Wolf (5.93 K/9, 1.63 K/BB, 39.4% GB) and his 4.17 ERA (4.85 FIP) would be a success story for Galarraga. Other close comps are Dave Bush (5.52 K/9, 1.64 K/BB, 39.5% GB, 4.54 ERA, 5.13 FIP) and Rodrigo Lopez (5.22 K/9, 2.07 K/BB, 37.6% GB, 5.00 ERA, 5.21 FIP) so he’s not in happy territory.

Galarraga may take the fifth starter role in Arizona next year, and he may pitch better than his terrible 2010 season (imPerfect game notwithstanding), and he may even have some superficial similarities to other AL starters that have made the same move recently – all of these things may be true, but he’s still probably not a good pick in your next draft.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 38 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics.

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Felipe Paulino – pitched in just 5.2 innings after the break. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to a lack of playing time.

Francisco Liriano – His second half ERA was better than his first half mark, but both metrics thought he was outstanding before the All-Star break. This is a clear win for xFIP.

Anibal Sanchez – His 2nd half ERA (3.44) was a near-perfect match for his first half FIP (3.46).

Clay Buchholz – Both systems thought Buchholz was not nearly as good as he was in the first half. FIP had his as a keep while xFIP said he was an active sell. Since Buchholz did even better in the second half of the season than the first, this was a clear victory for FIP.

Josh Johnson – Both systems had Johnson as a keeper, but xFIP did a better job predicting his 3.50 post All-Star break mark.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – After allowing 4 HR in 71 IP in the first half, Matsuzaka served up 9 HR in 82.2 IP after the break. Big win for xFIP.

Johan Santana – His 3.00 ERA in the second half almost identical to his first half mark of 2.98. xFIP had Santana as a cut, so an easy win for FIP.

Jason Vargas – Eight of his 14 starts after the break came on the road and he allowed eight of his 10 second half HR away from Safeco. Big win for xFIP.

Justin Verlander – In the last three years, Verlander has posted an ERA over 5.50 in the month of April. He was terrific from May 1st through the end of the season again in 2010. Easy win for FIP.

Barry Zito – A lousy second half of the season made Zito a spectator for the Giants in the post-season. xFIP did an outstanding job predicting Zito’s collapse.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Just like with Zito, xFIP was just about perfect predicting Jimenez in the second half.

Tom Gorzelanny – Both systems saw Gorzelanny as a pretty good pitcher, but xFIP came closer to his second-half collapse.

John Danks – Again, the crystal ball for xFIP was right on target for Danks.

Tommy Hanson – In both seasons in the majors, Hanson has outperformed his xFIP. He turned it up a notch in the second half of 2010, thanks as much to his .233 BABIP as his 7 HR in 100.1 IP.

Matt Cain – Another pitcher with a history of outperforming his peripherals, Cain beat his FIP by nearly a run and his xFIP by nearly two runs in the second half of 2010.

Clayton Kershaw – Just as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first.

Cliff Lee – Many people wanted to eliminate Lee from this study last year, as he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. But Lee outpitched his xFIP after the break in 2009. No such luck for Lee this year while following a similar story line of moving to a tougher park for pitchers.

C.J. Wilson – Like Kershaw, he was remarkable consistent between halves and ended up as a win for FIP.

Livan Hernandez – Those of us who kept predicting the bottom to fall out for Hernandez in 2010 are still waiting. Meanwhile, his second half ERA of 4.02 was a perfect match for his first half FIP.

Doug Fister – I imagine even the staunchest FIP supporters were shopping Fister every chance they could.

Fausto Carmona – After back-to-back seasons with a BB/9 over 5.00, Carmona allowed just 29 BB in 94.0 IP after the break last year. That had more to do with it than HR rate (10 HR in 94 IP) for why FIP was a clear winner.

Gavin Floyd – Fantasy owners did not know start from start what to expect from Floyd, but xFIP did a nice job of predicting his second half ERA.

Mark Buehrle – Like Wilson and Kershaw, Buehrle was a model of consistency with his ERA between halves this year. However, I worry about his K/9 rate and would be shocked if he was on any of my teams next year.

Brandon Morrow – With the Blue Jays out of the race, they decided to shut down a healthy Morrow after his first September start, which limited him to 46.1 IP after the break. A polar opposite to Buehrle, Morrow posted a 10.95 K/9, up from 8.14 a season ago.

Johnny Cueto – Cueto’s second half ERA was in the range predicted by his first half FIP and xFIP. But it was just 0.05 away from his FIP.

John Lackey – His second half ERA of 3.97 was a nice match for his 3.89 career mark but I doubt that makes too many Red Sox fans happy about his season and the team’s remaining obligation to him.

Kevin Correia – The first player on our list to have a big discrepancy between his FIP and xFIP due to a high HR rate, Correia did not show much regression in the second half of the year. Those who thought he would rebound, especially considering his home park, were disappointed. Correia allowed 13 HR in 82.1 IP in Petco this year.

Cole Hamels – Just like in 2009, one pitcher from the high HR rate side completely turned things around to become one of the best pitchers in the second half. Hopefully, Hamels has more luck in 2011 than 2009’s entry did. Rich Harden had a 5.58 ERA in 20 games with the Rangers this year after having a tremendous post-break performance (2.55 ERA) in 2009.

Nick Blackburn – Both systems would have advised cutting Blackburn, who responded with a 3.94 ERA in the second half, as he showed a big across-the-board improvement, including a microscopic 1.83 BB/9.

Kevin Millwood – Most of the players with a high HR/FB rate come back as not worth the risk by both systems. But xFIP said Millwood was significantly better than he showed in the first half and did an excellent job projecting his post-break ERA.

Jeff Karstens – An sore shoulder led to just one appearance in September. I regret the pain suffered by Mr. Karstens but it’s probably just as well that it played out that way.

Zach Duke – Hard to believe he made the All-Star team in 2009. Since then he is 11-23 with a 5.52 ERA.

James Shields – Both systems predicted a big bounce-back performance in the second half by Shields but that never materialized. He continued to give up HR by the basket, saw his K/BB ratio drop by over a full point and saw his BABIP increase to .362 after the break.

Brian Bannister – Limited to 25.2 IP in the second half due to rotator cuff tendinitis.

Randy Wolf – Both systems saw Wolf as waiver wire fodder but he had a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts, which was right after I placed him on waivers in a dynasty league.

Doug Davis – Elbow tendinitis kept Davis from pitching after the All-Star break.

Ricky Nolasco – FIP was nearly perfect with its Nolasco forecast, a marked departure in recent history, as he has generally underperformed his peripherals the past two seasons. Of course, Nolasco pitched just 47 innings after the break due to knee surgery.

Ian Kennedy – Neither system thought much of Kennedy going into the break but xFIP had a brighter outlook. Meanwhile, Kennedy put it altogether after the All-Star game, with Quality Starts in seven of his last nine outings. He finally started pitching well in his home park. In his last three games in Chase Field, Kennedy allowed 4 ER (0 HR) in 19 IP.

*****

When I started this comparison in 2009, my belief was that you would be just as well off using either system. After last year, there was a definite raw advantage for xFIP but now with two years worth of data, the two systems are basically even. Overall, there have been 72 pitchers who’ve had a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break. Here’s how they did if you used their first half FIP or xFIP to project their second half ERA:

xFIP – 37
FIP – 34
Push – 1

Both systems have strengths and weaknesses. Generally speaking, xFIP does a better job with non-elite pitchers with low HR rates while FIP does a better job with elite hurlers. So, if a Tom Gorzelanny is cruising along with a sub-7.0 HR/FB rate, it appears you should look to sell high. But if it’s Justin Verlander, perhaps you should hold onto him.

We know that over the long haul that xFIP is the better metric to use for most pitchers. The issue here is that for one season (or one partial season) there may not be enough time for regression to fully kick in. Let’s look at Tim Lincecum. In the first half of 2009, he had a 3.9 HR/FB rate. In the second half of the season he had a 7.5 HR/9. This year he had a 9.9 HR/FB ratio. He has been regressing towards a normal HR/FB rate since the first half of 2009. But it did not all come in the same season.

Readers have suggested using first half ERA, or a mid-point between first half FIP and xFIP or an average of all three to see which one best predicted second half ERA. I think these are worthwhile suggestions and perhaps ones that we can use in the future (going back retroactively, too) as our sample size increases. We can also eliminate pitchers who did not pitch substantial innings and look for other trends and anomalies as our population gets bigger.

This started with a claim by my friend and colleague Derek Carty that FIP was basically useless for fantasy purposes with other metrics like xFIP available. Right now it appears FIP is making a case not to be tossed into the trash can by fantasy players.

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

If you are in H2H championships right now, you are probably thinking of streaming or already knee deep in probable starters as we speak. Here’s a quick run-down of the more interesting starters by day for the final weekend. Good luck!

Friday
Mark Rogers is starting against the Reds and if you need strikeouts and strikeouts alone, he’s an interesting name. He missed all of 2007 and 2008 with labrum surgeries (torn!) and yet he’s got his velocity back up to 94/95 MPH and has shown his characteristic strikeout punch again (10.06 K/9 in his minor league career). Then again, Rogers has control problems (5.67 BB/9 career in minor leagues), to put it mildly. He also saw a reduced strikeout rate (about one per inning) after the surgeries. In more shallow leagues, the strikeouts-and-strikeouts alone option is Bud Norris, but that’s living on the edge, too, despite his nice FIP (4.16).

PIcking up Pat Misch might be a misch-take but at least he doesn’t walk people (0.93 BB/9 this year, 2.53 career), and is keeping the ball on the ground this year (51.8%). The Washington lineup will also be without Ryan Zimmerman, so he’ll have less opposition. He’s probably the safest streamer Friday. Jordan Zimmermann is also safer than Rogers (most starters are), and offers more strikeout ability than Misch, but he’s been limited to about five innings per start, so his ability to get you a “W” has been adversely affected.

The Kyle Kendrick / Brandon Beachy tilt is probably best to be avoided, given Kendrick’s FIP (4.91) and Beachy’s lack of experience and the stress of the moment. If you’re going to take the dive on one of the two, try Beachy, who has always shown great control in the minor leagues (2.12 BB/9), and added strikeout punch as he advanced.

Saturday
Saturday is actually a rough day for streamers, with a lot of established pitchers taking their final turns. Chris Capuano has been pitching decently and should be fresh, but his career numbers (4.34 ERA / 1.35 WHIP) were accrued in over 700 innings and shouldn’t be ignored. He’s pretty vanilla and only struck out one dude in his last start. His opponent, Homer Bailey, offers much more in the way of strikeout ability and risk. But Bailey’s only given up more than four runs once in his past ten appearances, so maybe he’s not as risky as we think. He’s pitching as a post-season audition and has a 3.89 FIP, he’s a decent spot starter.

Tim Stauffer is flying off the shelves (14% owned now), and for good reason. He’s got a great final matchup against the Giants, and has finally regained that groundball-inducing stuff (53.7%) that made him interesting before the injuries. His FIP (2.84) and opponent makes him the best spot starter of the day. Wade Davis is also an interesting name for the day, as he has a good matchup (the Royals) and has been pitching better since the half-way mark (3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9).

Joe Saunders and Alex Sanabia both have nice matchups (the Dodgers in LA and the Pirates in Florida, respectively), and they limit the walks (2.93 and 1.99 BB/9), but both have poor strikeout rates (5 and 5.85 K/9), so they are better options for those looking to protect ratios than those looking for the K.

Sunday
A little tip for roto players looking to get the most out of their innings limits. On Yahoo, the innings limits are enforced at the end of the day. So if you have one inning going into the final day, you can throw as many arms as you like that day and receive credit for all of them. It may not be in the spirit of the rule, but it is in the rules, and winning eases all pains. If you have little to lose in regards to your ratios, you might as well throw everyone you can that day.

That said, it’s not a great day for streaming. The shallow league prize is probably Ted Lilly, who has a nice matchup against the K-happy Diamondbacks in Los Angeles, but he’s owned in 62% of leagues and you’d have to get lucky to find him on your wire. Mike Pelfrey seems streaky and is in the midst of a decent stretch (only two starts of 3+ runs allowed in his last ten) and he gets the scrubs the Nationals want to run out on their final day in a decent matchup. He’s available about half the time, too. Randy Wolf would be a better matchup if he weren’t a flyballer going into Cincinnati, but he’s been strong this second half at least (3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and is a known quantity.

The deep league prize is probably Marc “Scrabble” Rzepczynski, who is once again striking out over eight per nine (8.1 K/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%). His walks are once again a little too high, though (4.45 BB/9 this year, 4.42 career), so as his FIP shows (4.87), he’s not without risk. Then again, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will risk too many of their regulars on the last day, and Scrabble is coming off of a string of good starts, including his last, a gem against the Yankees. I’d rather use him than his opponent Nick Blackburn, as his groundball-inducing repertoire will be going up against a slew of Jays trying to pad career-high homer totals. Strength on strength, I’m not betting against Jose Bautista et al, at least not this year.

Otherwise, it’s a tough day. Had Brad Bergesen not blown up against the Rays, he might look like a decent start against the weaker Tigers offense, but there is that five-run start looking up at you from his game log (as well as his poor strikeout numbers (4.25 K/9) and well-deserved FIP (5.20)). Brian Burres gets an okay matchup in Florida, but he’s not a good pitcher (5.01 K/9, 4.89 FIP). If you are scraping the bottom of this barrel, you’d be better off trying Esmil Rogers, who gets to pitch in St. Louis and has shown the ability to keep the ball on the ground (50.7% career GB) and garner the strikeout (8.47 K/9 this year). Call Rogers the surprise at the bottom of the cracker jacks.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.

Jorge de la Rosa – Last time out against the Braves, de la Rosa allowed just 1 BB in 7 IP. He’s allowed 11 BB in 30.2 IP in his 5 W and 16 BB in 23.1 IP in his 4 L. The key to de la Rosa is his control. This year he has allowed 20 BB in 26.2 road innings and he has road starts this week against the Giants and Padres. So, while de la Rosa has pitched well recently, the matchups do not favor him, especially as the Padres have the fourth-highest walk total in the National League. So, put him on the bench if you can.

Brian Duensing – After starting the season in the bullpen, Duensing moved into the rotation the third week of July. In seven starts this year, Duensing is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA. Additionally, he has allowed just 8 BB in 47.1 IP. With two home starts this week, get Duensing into your lineup.

J.A. Happ – Since arriving in Houston, Happ has posted a 3-2 record with a strong 7.96 K/9. But that strikeout rate is over a full K higher than his career average. Happ has also been lucky with his HR rate, which is 4.7 percent for the season and 4.9 with the Astros. It adds up to an xFIP of 4.90 for Happ. With starts against the Cardinals and in Arizona, give Happ a seat on the bench this week.

Randy Wolf – In his first 21 games, Wolf was 7-9 with a 5.20 ERA. But since then he’s gone 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA in 39 IP. In that span, he has 29 Ks and 10 BB and only 2 HR allowed. That ability to limit the long ball will be tested this week with road games against the Reds and Phillies. If Wolf can keep the ball in the park, look for him to come away with a win this week.

Carlos Zambrano – It has been a roller coaster ride for Zambrano this season but he has been pitching well since moving back into the rotation August 9th. In four starts he is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA. Zambrano had trouble with his control (15 BB in 24 IP) but in his last outing allowed just 1 BB in 8 IP. With home starts against the Pirates and Mets, make sure Zambrano is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 22 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, E. Santana, Hughes, Wilson, Cahill, Beckett, Jurrjens, Kuroda, Buehrle, J. Sanchez, Niese, Minor, Cecil, LeBlanc, Saunders, Davis, Matusz, Mazzaro, Bailey, Kendrick, Masterson, Galarraga, Moseley, Maholm, Talbot, Sanabia, Davies, Marquis, Pauley, Misch.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 20 pitchers and how they fared.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.51 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.047 WHIP (2 starts)
Braden – Advised to start. W, 2.77 ERA, 8 Ks, 0.846 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 1.50 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.083 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. 2.08 ERA, 16 Ks, 1.154 WHIP (2)
Zito – Advised to sit. 9.35 ERA, 3 Ks, 2.077 WHIP (2)

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Geo was a prime bounce-back candidate entering 2010, given that his strong walk and power numbers in ’09 were obscured by his batting average on balls in play taking a nose-dive. CHONE projected a .358 wOBA for the Cubbies backstop prior to the season, and ZiPS projected a .352 mark.

So far, Soto has outpaced those forecasts with a .386 wOBA. His BABIP, .246 last year, has shot up to .316 (his career average is .306), and he’s still driving the ball fairly often (.151 Isolated Power). The biggest reason Soto has scorched those pre-season forecasts, though, is his Bondsian walk rate — Geo has taken ball four in 22.1 percent of his plate appearances. That’s tops in the majors among batters with at least 100 PA.

Soto was a patient hitter in 2007 (20.1 outside-swing percentage) and 2008 (17.8 O-Swing). But this year, he has chased just 13.4 percent of out-of-zone pitches (second in the majors). Geo likely won’t keep this pace up, but his rest-of-season ZiPS projection –.262/.357/.456, with a .360 wOBA –still makes him one of the best fantasy options at his position. Yet, Soto is still available in one-quarter of Yahoo Leagues. That makes me wanna take a Lou Pinella-like tantrum.

Mat Latos, Padres

As a 22-year-old starter who dealt with shoulder and oblique injuries on the farm, logging a career-high 127.2 innings between the minors and the majors in 2009, Latos isn’t likely to be burdened with a full-season big league workload in 2010. Still, he’s showing the excellent stuff — a 93-94 MPH fastball, an upper-80’s slider and a mid-80’s change — that allowed him to whiff 10.5 batters per nine frames as a prospect.

In 55.1 IP, Latos has 6.83 K/9, 1.95 BB/9 and a 3.81 xFIP. While the walk rate suggests he’s pounding the strike zone, that hasn’t been the case. Latos has placed 41.7% of his pitches in the zone, well below the 47.7% MLB average. Rather, the 6-6, 225 pound righty has induced swings on pitches off the plate 30.6% (27.6% MLB average). Latos has also gotten swinging strikes 9.3%, compared to the 8.3% MLB average. He’ll be handled cautiously, but Latos is a premium young arm in a pitcher’s paradise.

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

The former Pirate has already popped 14 home runs in 2010. For reference, he went deep 16 times in 2006, 15 in 2007 and 2008 and 13 in 2009. Bautista has a .325 ISO, basically doubling up on his pre-season projections (.163 CHONE, .162 ZiPS), and his wOBA is .393 (.320 pre-season CHONE and ZiPS).

He’s lofting the ball more than ever, with a 52.3 FB% (43.7% career average), and those fly balls are finding the stands a whopping 20.9% of the time (11.5% career average). Odds are, “Joey Bats” (as he was known in Pittsburgh) hasn’t become a hulking, elite power hitter. But you can’t just pretend that his power surge hasn’t happened, either.

The best course of action is to take those pre-season projections and incorporate the extra data points we’ve gotten on Bautista over the past two months. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .339 wOBA for Bautista, with a .201 ISO.

Ted Lilly, Cubs

Lilly has been one of the best free agent signings among starting pitchers since he inked a four-year, $40 million deal with the Cubs prior to 2007. The lefty compiled 10 WAR from 2007-2009, providing about $44 million in value. However, Lilly hasn’t looked as sharp in 2010.

The 34-year-old, who began the season on the DL recovering from left shoulder and knee surgery, has 5.02 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 4.83 xFIP in 37.2 innings. Lilly has never been known for velocity, but his heater is down to an average of 85.3 MPH in 2010 after sitting 87-88 MPH in recent seasons. His slider, typically around 82 MPH, is averaging 79.4 MPH.

Keep in mind the sample size, but Lilly’s whiff rates are down across the board (data from texasleaguers.com):

Lilly has garnered swinging strikes 5.9% this year, compared to a 9.5% career average. His contact rate is 87.5% (79.7% career average, 80-81% MLB average). Perhaps this is just a blip, but Lilly needs to start missing more bats to be an above-average big league starter.

Matt LaPorta, Indians

Granted, LaPorta spent more time on the surgeon’s table than in the batting cage this past off-season — he had surgery on his left hip and left toe. But the 25-year-old, Cleveland’s supposed big catch in the CC Sabathia deal, has been extremely disappointing this season.

The career .291/.384/.557 minor league hitter has a paltry .240 wOBA in 110 trips to the plate. LaPorta showed decent patience as a prospect with a 10.3% walk rate, but he has hacked at 32.7% of pitches off the plate this year. The most surprising aspect of his season, however, is a total lack of pop — his ISO is in Juan Pierre territory, at .059.

While fantasy owners shouldn’t write him off entirely, LaPorta has an uninspiring .329 rest-of-season wOBA projection from ZiPS. League-average hitting from a defensively-challenged corner outfielder/1B/DH just isn’t very valuable.

Randy Wolf, Brewers

Signed by Milwaukee to a three-year, $29.75M deal during the winter, Wolf benefitted from a low BABIP and a high rate of stranding base runners during a contract year in 2009. The result was a 3.23 ERA that outpaced his xFIP (4.17) by nearly a run.

Both CHONE (4.22 pre-season FIP projection) and ZiPS (4.19) predicted that Wolf would be more serviceable starter than top-shelf arm in 2010. So far, the new Brewer has fallen short of that level of performance. Wolf has 6.09 K/9, 4.12 BB/9 and a 4.96 xFIP. The 33-year-old got swings on pitches out of the zone around 24% of the time in recent years, but that’s down to 20% this season. After putting about 53% of his pitches in the zone in 2008 and 2009, Wolf’s Zone% is 48.8. His swinging strike rate, around the MLB average recently, sits at 6.1%.

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects 6.85 K/9, 3.18 BB/9 and a 4.36 FIP. Wolf will likely pitch better from here on out, but that low-three’s ERA hurler from ’09 isn’t coming back.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Four.

Mark Buehrle – He has allowed six runs in back-to-back outings and his K/9 rate has dipped to 3.86, the worst mark of his career. His walk rate is the highest it has been since his rookie season. Buehrle has been unlucky with his strand rate, but that has been cancelled out by a low HR rate. And to make matters worse, the White Sox offense is 12th in the league in runs, averaging just 3.69 per game. Sit Buehrle this week for his road starts in Texas and New York.

Wade Davis – After struggling in his first outing against the Yankees, Davis has put up back-to-back strong outings. Still, his peripherals are all over the map, with a terrible walk rate (5.82), a low BABIP (.205) and an elevated HR rate (18.2). Davis is lucky to have a 2.65 ERA. But I think the walks will come down and the other rates will stabilize, making Davis a good option to put in the lineup this week, especially with two home starts.

Zach Duke – The Pirates scored a combined 17 runs in Duke’s first two starts, helping him get out to a 2-0 record. But Duke is doing worse than his usual poor marks in strikeouts, while both his BB and HR allowed are up. It all makes for a 4.88 xFIP and a 5.91 FIP. With two road games this week, put Duke on your bench this week if at all possible.

Derek Lowe – The troubles that began in the second half of 2009 have carried over into this year for Lowe. He has managed 3 W despite a 5.24 ERA thanks to three outing where the offense put up 7 or more runs for him. But outside of wins, Lowe has been a very poor fantasy pitcher this year. On top of that he has to pitch this week in St. Louis, where he is 1-6 lifetime, including 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA in the latest version of Busch Stadium. Get him out of your starting lineup this week.

Randy Wolf – A trip to Pittsburgh proved to be the perfect tonic for Wolf, who posted his first strong start of the season in his last outing. Still, after four games, his overall numbers are pretty much where you would expect them to be. He faces two below-average teams in runs scored this week in the Pirates and Padres. While I generally do not like pitchers immediately facing a team they just dominated, this week feels like an exception. Make sure Wolf is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Four are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, F. Hernandez, Weaver, J. Johnson, Beckett, Carpenter, Haren, Gallardo, Greinke, Liriano, Sanchez, Hudson, Hughes, Jackson, Kuroda, Sheets, Marcum, Wilson, Millwood, Harang, Silva, Latos, Eveland, Padilla, Bonderman, Norris, Lohse, Garland, Huff, Lannan, Gorzelanny, Perez, Hammel, Harrison, Snell, Davies, McCutchen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Two pitchers and how they fared.

Maine – Recommended to sit. 8 Ks, 13.28 ERA, 2.50 WHIP (2 starts).
Pavano – Recommended to start. W, 6 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Recommended to sit. W, 13 Ks, 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP (2)
C. Young – Recommended to start. DNP
Zito – Recommended to start. W, 4 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP (2)

The 33-year-old Randy Wolf is allegedly drawing a lot of interest on the free agent market. The southpaw had a solid season in ’09 for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He posted a 3.23 ERA (3.96 FIP) but threw 200+ innings for just the first time since 2003, so his durability is in question and teams looking to sign him to a three- or four-year deal could be disappointed. Luckily, most fantasy managers will be making just a one-year commitment to Wolf.

He showed solid control in ’09 with a walk rate of just 2.44 BB/9 but his strikeout rate is definitely not at the elite level at 6.72 K/9. His contact rate was also about 4% above league average in ’09, so that should be monitored heading into 2010.

Wolf was basically a fastball-curveball pitcher in ’09, in terms of quality pitches. His fastball was as good as it’s been since ’03 with a rate of 29.3 wFB (showing velocity is definitely not everything), and his curveball was snapping at an all-time best rate of 8.8 wCB. Wolf will likely need to find a little more success from his slider or change-up if he’s going to continue to dominate hitters three or four times through the order – especially if he mistakenly makes his way to the American League.

It’s safe to say, though, that any pitcher that is coming off of a 200 IP season is someone to consider, especially considering that he’s improved each year that he’s distanced himself from his surgery. Keep in mind: Over the past three seasons, Wolf has pitched in a pitcher’s park for all but half a season (for Houston) during that span. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher.

Wolf’s 3.0 WAR suggests that he was worth about $13.6 million to the Dodgers in ’09, which was far more than the $8.0 million he earned (when including IP incentives). As a result, expect a pretty significant pay increase in the real world of baseball. In fantasy land, we certainly want to see where Wolf settles before we starting predicting where he should be drafted.

Seattle is the most likely AL destination, and perhaps the safest AL landing spot for the pitcher if he’s going to post solid fantasy numbers in 2010. The Mets are also considered a possible destination for the hurler, who is one of the Top 3-5 starters on the market. Neither team will likely have a huge (positive) impact on Wolf’s win totals. Wolf likely has one or two more seasons where he’ll pitch at the level of a mid-tier starter.

Recently, reader Pat left a comment on an article, asking:

“Can’t alot of pitchers HR/FB rates be expected to increase in the second half just due to the weather? … [T]herefore it would seem like a good strategy in a points league to stack pitching in the first half (and then look to make moves around the allstar break to acquire hitters).”

The reasoning here is that since bats tend to heat up as the weather gets warmer, hoard pitching early and then pick up hitters when the season is in full swing and 80 and 90 degree days are the norm.

Seems like a reasonable strategy, but would it work?

Since we would hoard pitchers early, let’s look at the top 20 starting pitchers, as determined by the final dollar values from the RotoTimes Player Rater, and check out their monthly HR and HR/FB data.

If HR prevention is the goal of this strategy, 16 of our 20 top pitchers had a HR/FB rate less than 11 percent in the final month of the season. Even August, the month last year where more HR by far were hit than any other, saw eight of our 20 pitchers have a HR/FB rate beneath 11 percent.

And this does not even take into account that the pitchers who were ranked top 20 at the beginning of the year often are nowhere to be found near the top of the leaderboard at the conclusion of the year. Using my friend Troy Patterson’s 2009 Starting Pitcher Rankings, here are the ones that did not make the top 20 at the end of the year:

Johan Santana (1), Brandon Webb (4), Jake Peavy (5), Cole Hamels (8), James Shields (10), Roy Oswalt (11), Ervin Santana (13), John Lackey (14), AJ Burnett (15), Edinson Volquez (16), Scott Kazmir (17), Carlos Zambrano (18), Chad Billingsley (19) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (20).

If you went into your draft convinced to load up on pitching, you could have wound up with a staff of Santana, Webb, Peavy, Hamels, Oswalt, Lackey and Burnett and at the All-Star break found other owners willing to offer you very little hitting in return.

Now, let us look at how pitchers as a whole fared in 2009. Here are the first and second half splits for all of the pitchers in MLB in 2009:

1st half – 4.32 ERA, 1.389 WHIP
2nd half – 4.33 ERA, 1.391 WHIP

It does not always work out this close, but this is yet another example of how easy this strategy could go awry.

Finally, you also have to consider how your league will handle trading with you when you have such an obvious need for hitters. Will your league-mates be willing to help you out and offer fair or even somewhat reasonable trades given how needy you are for offense? In friendly leagues that might not be a problem but it would likely be a bigger issue the more competitive your league is.

The best pitchers can dominate (or like Rodriguez in June – get lit up) at any point in the season. Stacking up on pitching only to turn around and deal it for hitting at the All-Star break seems like the fantasy baseball equivalent of market timing and not the best way to ensure long-term success.

Here is the latest update to Week 19 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

LAD – Wolf
LAD – Kuroda
OAK – G. Gonzalez
SD – Richard
OAK – Cahill
BOS – Tazawa
TEX – Nippert

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

COL – Cook
OAK – Braden
BOS – Smoltz
LAD – Schmidt
SD – Gaudin
TEX – Padilla
SEA – J. Vargas
STL – Boggs

Wolf had a streak of seven consecutive Quality Starts snapped in his last outing, when he allowed four runs in seven innings pitched. Over those last eight games, Wolf has a 3.38 ERA with a 3-to-1 SO/BB ratio and a 1.204 WHIP but he has just a 2-3 record. Wolf has two road starts this week, where he has an ERA a full run lower than he does at Chavez Ravine. His problem in home games is the gopher ball. Wolf has allowed 12 HR in 76 IP at home compared to 6 HR in 71 IP on the road.

Kuroda won his first game in a month his last time out. In his last three outings, Kuroda has 21 Ks in 18 IP. He has been a little unlucky this year with a 62.5 percent strand rate. Kuroda’s FIP checks in at 3.36 compared to a 4.44 ERA.

Gonzalez gave up 11 runs in 2.2 innings on July 20th. In three outings since then he is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.071 WHIP. Included in those last three games were matchups in New York and Boston.

Richard has a 3.95 BB/9 ratio for the season. But in his last nine starts he has allowed 17 BB in 45.1 innings. Pitch Type Values shows Richard’s fastball being a good pitch but that he gets in trouble with his slider and his cutter.

Cahill has allowed a HR in nine consecutive starts. He has given up 15 homers in that stretch, including two in each of his last two outings. His HR/FB ratio of 16.6 is the fourth highest mark among pitchers who qualify.

Tazawa made his major league debut and took the loss in the 15-inning game last Friday against the Red Sox. Tazawa was 9-5 in Double-A and 0-2 in Triple-A this year, albeit with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.706 WHIP in those two contests.

Nippert has bounced back-and-forth between the bullpen and the rotation this year for the Rangers. In his last outing, a start, he allowed just one hit in five innings and now seems poised for an extended trial as a starter. Nippert averages nearly 93 miles per hour with his fastball and he also throws a change-up and an occasional curve.