Archive for Randy Johnson

Let’s a give a big round of applause to the idiots at the IOC, shall we? The need to draw more attention and revenue to the Olympics led these buffoons to killing the Games’ integrity by removing the amateur status requirements to participate so they could draw in more professional and marketable athletes. While that may have been fine and dandy for the basketball world, as the NBA season ends in June and the summer Olympics don’t start up until late July, it was an epic fail for baseball as players were asked to leave their MLB teams in the middle of the season to go and compete. MLB complied and allowed players to play, but there were no marquee names headed for the games and in the 2004, the United States didn’t even field a team. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 34 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Zack Greinke – His xFIP was 101 points higher than his ERA, making Greinke a sell high guy. This was a big win for FIP.

Joel Pineiro – After allowing just three home runs in 17 first half games, Pineiro served up eight home runs in 15 games after the break. This was a big win for xFIP.

Tim Lincecum – It was a very good second half of the season for Lincecum, just not as good as the first half. He did have a slightly higher HR/FB rate in the second half, and xFIP did a better job predicting his post-break ERA. Still, those fantasy owners who kept him based on his FIP did not end up disappointed.

Dallas Braden – Made just four starts after the break due to a foot infection. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

Paul Maholm – His second half ERA was lower than his first half one, despite more HR allowed. Still, this was a pitcher that FIP would have identified as a potential buy candidate at the break, so a win for xFIP.

Tim Wakefield – Made just four starts in the second half due to leg and back injuries. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to the lack of playing time.

Clayton Kershaw – He had a 5.0 HR/FB rate at the break and was even better in the second half, as he finished the year with a 4.1 mark. His ERA finished two full runs below what xFIP predicted. This was a big win for FIP.

Derek Lowe – Opponents posted an .888 OPS versus Lowe in the second half of the season, including 10 HR in 331 ABs. This was a big win for xFIP.

Cliff Lee – Everyone thinks the move to the NL turned things around for Lee but he was 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his first three games with Cleveland after the break. His HR/FB rate has been below 11 percent the past five seasons. This was a big win for FIP.

Carlos Zambrano – This was the closest one, as Zambrano’s second half ERA of 4.14 was just barely closer to his first-half FIP than his xFIP. Zambrano pitched worse in the second half than in the first, but it had nothing to do with his HR rate, which declined slightly from the 5.8 he posted in the first half. This was a slight win for FIP.

Jair Jurrjens – Both FIP and xFIP predicted Jurrjens’ ERA to rise in the second half and instead he pitched even better after the break. If you went strictly by FIP at the break, you would have listened to offers for Jurrjens. If you went by xFIP you were in the sell/cut area. This was a win for FIP.

Jeff Niemann – As with Jurrjens, both of our metrics predicted an ERA rise from Niemann in the second half. FIP had him as a sell while xFIP had him as a sell or cut guy. This was a slight win for FIP.

Nick Blackburn – Yet another pitcher that both metrics forecasted a rise in ERA. Except this time, the actual rise was more drastic than even the more pessimistic xFIP predicted. Since you might have kept him if you used FIP, this was a big win for xFIP.

Edwin Jackson – Pretty much the same thing as with Blackburn above, except you were even more likely to keep Jackson if you used FIP. This was a big win for xFIP.

Mike Pelfrey – The spread with our two metrics was not nearly as great with Pelfrey as it was for Blackburn and Jackson, but the end results were the same. This was a big win for xFIP.

Jon Garland – FIP projected Garland to be virtually the same in the second half as he was in the first half while xFIP had him being noticeably worse. The trade to Los Angeles invigorated Garland, or perhaps it was simply leaving a bad home park, as he finished the year with a 5.29 ERA at Chase Field and a 1.67 ERA at Dodger Stadium. This was a win for FIP, but probably not a pitcher anyone was targeting at the break.

Felix Hernandez – Again, both metrics predicted an ERA rise in the second half, although xFIP was more pessimistic, making him a sell high guy with a difference of 94 points. Hernandez pitched even better after the break, making this a big win for FIP.

Justin Verlander – Both metrics predicted an ERA drop in the second half for Verlander, with FIP being the most optimistic. Verlander pitched well, but saw his ERA go up, making this a win for xFIP.

Brian Bannister – A 3.66 ERA in the first half made Bannister look like a useful pitcher. Both metrics saw an ERA increase, but xFIP was the most pessimistic. This was a big win for xFIP.

C.C. Sabathia – Our two metrics were split on how Sabathia would fare in the second half. With a predicted decrease from his first half ERA, this was a big win for FIP.

Brad Penny – Our two metrics were split again. But Penny’s ERA went up in the second half. This was a win for xFIP, but not many people who used FIP were angling to acquire Penny.

Vicente Padilla – His HR/FB rate went up significantly in the second half, yet Padilla produced a lower ERA after the break, thanks to a move to the NL. Neither metric identified Padilla as a pitcher to target, although FIP came very close to hitting his actual mark.

Jarrod Washburn – Both metrics identified Washburn as a sell candidate as his ERA was 92 points lower than his FIP and 150 points lower than his xFIP. Officially a win for xFIP, although you likely would have made the same decision regardless of which metric you used.

Jered Weaver – A win for xFIP, which had him as a sell, while FIP had him as a listen. There are also extra points for xFIP for exactly predicting his second half ERA.

Joe Blanton – The metrics were split on how Blanton would fare in the second half. This was a big win for xFIP, which forecasted him to be a useful pitcher and he ended up better than that.

Bronson Arroyo – Technically a win for xFIP but not many fantasy players were running out to acquire Arroyo based on his 4.99 first half xFIP.

Jamie Moyer – Repeat the comment from Arroyo, except sub in 5.06 xFIP.

Trevor Cahill – Same as the above two, except with a 5.18 FIP.

Chris Volstad – Our two metrics were split on Volstad. FIP saw him continuing to be a sell/cut guy while xFIP saw him being a useful pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA. This was a win for FIP.

Rick Porcello – Both systems predicted a rise in ERA but FIP elevated him to cut status. This was a win for xFIP.

Braden Looper – The two metrics were split on Looper, with xFIP predicting a drop in ERA. Looper actually pitched worse in the second half but neither system would have advocated acquiring him at the break.

Josh Geer – Made just three starts after the break due to lousy pitching. Not one that either system would have suggested to add.

Rich Harden – While most of the players with above average HR/FB rates have been of little or no value in regards to fantasy, Harden is the exception. Both systems saw him improving on his first half ERA but xFIP was much more bullish. And Harden exceeded those expectations. This was a big win for xFIP.

Randy Johnson – Appeared in just four games after the break due to a rotator cuff strain. Officially a win for FIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

*****

If you made your fantasy decisions this year based on xFIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Pineiro, Lowe, Blackburn, Jackson, Pelfrey, Bannister, Blanton, Harden and to a lesser extent Maholm, Verlander, Weaver and Porcello.

If you made your fantasy decisions based this year based on FIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Greinke, Kershaw, Lee, Hernandez, Sabathia and to a lesser extent Jurrjens and Volstad.

From a pure bulk standpoint, you were better off in 2009 using xFIP at the break. But those who relied on FIP were more likely to make the right call on four of the five pitchers with the lowest ERA in the second half among the 34 pitchers in our sample.

We really cannot make any inferences for the future based on this one small sample. What we can say is that judging strictly from results in 2009 it would be a mistake to ignore FIP completely and absolutely while making fantasy decisions at the All-Star break. This year if you used xFIP you would have made the wrong decisions on some of the best pitchers in the game.

Prior to the start of the 2009 season, the thought of comparing Livan Hernandez and Randy Johnson was ludicrous. Mets fans rolled their eyes when the club signed Hernandez while Giants fans were quite pleased when the team added Johnson. To support this belief, Johnson had an ADP of 141 while Hernandez did not crack the top 348 players listed over at Mock Draft Central.

Here were the fantasy stats for both players in 2008:

RJ – 11 W, 3.91 ERA, 173 K, 1.24 WHIP
LH – 13 W, 6.05 ERA, 67 K, 1.53 WHIP

To further drive home how big the gulf between these two players was last year, RotoTimes had Johnson with a $7.19 final dollar value compared to a minus $14.92 for Hernandez.

Right now each pitcher has made eight starts and here are their fantasy stats:

RJ – 3 W, 6.86 ERA, 42 K, 1.55 WHIP
LH – 3 W, 4.93 ERA, 25 K, 1.47 WHIP

RotoTimes values

RJ – minus $16.59
LH – minus $11.66

Many people believe that Johnson will turn things around while next to no one believes in Hernandez. With Johnson, they’ll point to his BABIP or his HR/FB and talk about regression or they’ll talk about other metrics and see how similar they are to last year and conclude that a return to the Johnson of old is just around the corner.

One area where there is a big difference is in pitch selection. Overall, Johnson threw 51.4 percent fastballs last year, compared to 48.8 percent this season. With his slider it is 40.4 percent this year compared to 35.2 percent in 2008. But if we look at what Johnson was doing at the end of last season, we get an even bigger difference. These numbers come from Dan Brooks’ wonderful site.

	FB	CH	SL	CB	SP
9/1	66	12	3	 	
9/13	61	8	9		
9/18	60	15	3	2	
9/23	54	10	26		5
9/28	65	11	4	1	
Pct     75	14	11	<1	<1

He was throwing his fastball nearly seven times as often as his slider. The two outings where he threw more than a handful of sliders, his average vertical break was over three. It was 3.43 on 9/13 and 3.03 on 9/23.

(Another thing that may jump out at you is that FanGraphs does not show Johnson throwing a changeup last year. My best guess is that what Brooks labels as a changeup FanGraphs categorizes as a splitter. This does not affect the fastball-slider ratio.)

Flash forward to this year and Johnson has been all over the map with the vertical break on his slider. His first three starts it was 2.89 then 5.54 then 2.84. And since then it’s been even more erratic. Here are Johnson’s starts since April 25th:

	IP	ER	BB	V-Break
4/25	3.1	2	7	1.79
5/1	7	0	0	4.16
5/6	5.2	7	3	2.16
5/11	5	4	0	2.53
5/16	4	7	0	2.22

If we look at the Pitch Type Linear Weights, we can see the deterioration of Johnson’s slider. Since an injury-shortened season in 2003, here are his yearly wSL (which stands for runs above average with his slider):

2004 – 32.5
2005 – 24.1
2006 – 14.9
2007 – 10.1 (injury shortened)
2008 – 5.2
2009 – negative 1.0

Johnson’s command was poor in April (13 BB in 19 IP) but very good in May (3 BB in 21.2 IP). His BABIP was .268 in April and .394 so far this month. Perhaps Johnson’s command and BABIP having an inverse relationship is an insignificant small sample size fluke. Or perhaps his slider is no longer a reliable pitch and he has to go back to throwing more changeups/splitters. Or maybe at age 45 he is done as a worthwhile fantasy pitcher.

One can count on the fingers of two hands the number of pitchers who have thrown 100 innings at age 45 in MLB history. Most of them are like Jamie Moyer, crafty soft tossers. The best comparison to Johnson is Nolan Ryan. Here are the fantasy stats for Ryan at age 44 and 45, when he made 27 starts both seasons.

1991 – 12 W, 2.91 ERA, 203 K, 1.006 WHIP
1992 – 5 W, 3.72 ERA, 157 K, 1.316 WHIP

All great pitchers reach the end of the road. Ryan was done after 13 starts and a career-high 4.88 ERA in 1993. If a pitcher in his prime had Johnson’s 2009 numbers after eight starts, regression would be the most likely occurrence. But perhaps this is not bad luck but rather the new level of performance for the Big Unit. Time will tell.

Now let’s look at Hernandez.

He had another fine outing last night, going seven innings and allowing just one run. The offense took the night off for him and he wound up with a no-decision in a game the Mets went on to lose. That brings the team’s record in starts by Hernandez to 5-3. He certainly pitched well enough to win last night and in another team loss, the bullpen gave up four runs and allowed an inherited runner to score that went on Hernandez’ record.

The alleged 34-year-old Hernandez, the pitcher no one wanted, has given his team a chance to win in seven of his eight games and he has four Quality Starts this season (Johnson: 2).

Hernandez claimed in Spring Training that his knee was 100 percent. This year his average fastball is up nearly a mile per hour (83.7-84.6). Additionally, Hernandez has thrown his slider more often (16.6%-21.2%) and with better results, as his wSL this season is 2.2 after being a negative 10.2 last year. This has led to a SwStr% of 5.5 in 2009 for Hernandez after it was 3.8 last year with Minnesota and 3.0 in Colorado.

With a .316 BABIP (career rate .310), 71.7 percent strand rate (career: 72.4), HR/9 of 1.18 (career: 1.05) and 4.65 FIP (career: 4.45), Hernandez has not been the recipient of a huge amount of luck. The numbers stand out in stark contrast to what he accomplished last year but the knee injury could at least partially explain 2008’s awful numbers.

Right now, Hernandez and Johnson are only worthwhile in deep NL-only leagues. Hernandez is healthy and basically pitching to his career averages in the four metrics listed above. There have been no reports of an injury to Johnson, but he is pitching far worse than was expected coming into the season. Before you repeat the regression mantra, track what he does with both his command and his slider in his next few outings.

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off a James Shields for Cliff Lee trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

J.J. Hardy – After back-to-back strong fantasy seasons, Hardy was atrocious in the month of April. He is hitting well in May but not to the point yet where his overall stats look good. Hardy may have dug too deep a hole to finish with an average close to what we expected at the beginning of the year, but he still should be right there in HR and RBIs.

Brett Cecil – He is only owned in 2.8 percent of ESPN leagues, which is great news because anyone who owns him is unlikely to trade him. The lefty throws four pitches, gets tons of ground balls (52.6%) and has 12 strikeouts in 14 innings. Cecil’s command may not be this good going forward, but throughout his minor league career he piled up the strikeouts and kept the ball in the park.

Adrian Beltre – The past three seasons Beltre has hit 25, 26 and 25 HR. Right now he has only one. Beltre is swinging at too many pitches and his 3.8 percent walk rate would easily be a career worst. Fantasy players usually undervalue Beltre and his slow start may frustrate his current owners. I still like his power potential for your corner infield slot.

Rick Porcello – After being smacked around pretty good in three of his first four starts, Porcello has had back-to-back strong outings. He may not be ready to dominate major league hitters, but Porcello has shown the ability to get ground balls (54.1%) and get hitters out. There is a minor worry about Porcello becoming the odd man out if/when Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis return, but he is still a nice option for the back of your rotation.

Emmanuel Burriss – The Giants want Burriss to succeed and they recently installed him as the team’s leadoff hitter. He is likely just a one-category performer but the updated ZiPS projection shows him with 41 SB. Burriss also comes with 2B and SS eligibility.

Trade

Felipe Lopez – In 2005 F-Lop had his best year in the majors, with a .291-23-85 line. He has not matched any of those numbers in the ensuing three years. Right now he sports a .323 AVG thanks to a .374 BABIP. Also, after three straight years of HR/FB rates in single digits, Lopez has a 13.3 percent mark. He undoubtedly will get a boost from Chase Field, but Lopez is unlikely to maintain his .954 home OPS. His road OPS sits at .710 and that’s with a .385 BABIP.

Corey Hart – It is going to take a strong finish for Hart to match the 20-20 expectations that most everyone had for him coming into the season. And with a .345 BABIP already, it is hard to predict much growth unless he gets his strikeouts under control. After back-to-back years of declining strikeout rates, Hart has a 28.7 K% in 2009. Furthermore, even when he does hit the ball, he is not hitting for much power. Hart’s .164 ISO would be a career low.

Randy Johnson – Everyone is pulling for Johnson to reach 300 career wins and he picked up his 298th Monday night. But Johnson hardly pitched well, as he allowed four ER in five IP. Johnson has had seven starts this season and has a Quality Start in just two of them. The strikeout numbers are still there (except for his 5/6 outing) which might make him attractive to other teams. But Johnson’s ERA and WHIP numbers are detrimental to your staff’s health.

Marco Scutaro – He has been the third most valuable fantasy shortstop up until this point, thanks to his having as many runs scored (32) as Albert Pujols. It is almost a guarantee that Scutaro will have a career year this season, mostly because the bar has been set so low. Scutaro is having a strong May in AVG and R but his power has disappeared and the RBIs have fallen off, too.

Scott Richmond – So far in 2009, Richmond has been a contributor in four categories. He throws four pitches and ranks tied for ninth among major league starters with a 30.8 percent O-Swing%. But Richmond has a 25.9 percent LD% and a .254 BABIP. His ZiPS projection for the rest of the season calls for a 6.21 ERA.

The prospect of a soon-to-be 300 game winner and future first-ballot hall of famer being undervalued sounds pretty silly. But free agent Randy Johnson may just fit the bill at this stage of his career. If reports are to be believed, Johnson is willing to cut his $16 million salary nearly in half to remain in Arizona, but the cash-strapped D-Backs do not appear interested. At $8-10 million for what would likely be a one-year deal, Johnson would be an absolute bargain in a pitching market that figures to see some exorbitant long-term signings. The Big Unit is also likely to be a big bargain on draft day.

Many were ready to write Johnson off following the 2007 season. After all, he had posted a 5.00 ERA with the Yankees in 2006, and then missed the better portion of the 2007 campaign following back surgery.

The problem with that thinking was, Johnson’s peripheral stats never took the big hit that his Bronx ERA suggested. Rather, he posted an incredibly low 61.8% Strand Rate (LOB%) in 2006, 13% below his career average. Johnson’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) remained a steady 4.27, as he posted rates of 7.55 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9. He was a bit homer-prone (1.23 BB/9), but Johnson’s overall package of skills remained strong. In an injury-shortened 2007, Johnson would toss just 56.2 innings. However, he showed no signs of decline before the back injury sidelined him, compiling a 3.20 FIP ERA. He struck out 11.44 batters per nine innings and issued 2.06 BB/9.

In 2008, Johnson would recover and take the mound for 30 starts, turning in another fine season. In 184 IP, The Big Unit posted a 3.76 FIP ERA, with a solid 8.46 K/9 and just 2.15 BB/9. Home runs were still a slight issue (1.17 HR/9), but Johnson turned in a remarkably strong performance for any pitcher, much less for a guy in his mid-40’s. To illustrate how strong Johnson’s 2008 season was, here are his ranks among all starters in some major categories:

K/9: 11th
BB/9: 24th
K/BB: 10th
FIP ERA: 28th

In all probability, Johnson remains one of the top 30 starters in the game. He may no longer sling his fastball in the mid-to-upper 90’s (90.8 MPH in 2008), but he has compensated by adding a nasty split-finger pitch in addition to his trademark slider. As his heater has lost some hop, Johnson has gone from throwing his splitter 2.2% of the time in 2005 to 13.4% in 2008.

A look at Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog shows that while The Big Unit’s fastball may have lost some velocity, it remains a plus pitch. Johnson’s heat has a ton of horizontal movement (10.21 inches; the average fastball has 5.46 inches of horizontal break) and a decent amount of vertical break as well (7.76 inches). That newfound splitter is a good complementary pitch, as it dives about four inches lower in the zone than Johnson’s fastball. Combined with his slider, Johnson can still effectively work up/down and in/out, harnessing all quadrants of the strike zone. Opponents found him to be plenty hard to hit, as Johnson’s 78.2 Contact% was 18th-lowest among starting pitchers.

There are surely more inherent risks with a 45 year-old hurler who has undergone knee and back surgery over the past few seasons, but there are next to no signs of a degradation in performance here. Randy Johnson is without question one of the best starting pitchers of this generation. However, let’s not plan the date for his Cooperstown speech just yet: The Big Unit can still bring it.