Archive for Pittsburgh Pirates

I alleged, behind closed doors, that I would cook up something pertaining to batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and the new shift data FanGraphs now hosts on its leaderboards. But, alas, such allegations — that I, uh, made, against myself — were false. There are more pressing matters to which I must attend.

Such as Gregory Polanco. Polanco, of the consensus top-100 prospect rankings in 2013 and 2014 prior to his debut. Polanco, of the pleasantly solid production that still, almost 1,000 plate appearances later, somehow, somewhat inexplicably, disappoints us.

If you don’t own Polanco, you may not know his weighted runs created (wRC+) currently ranks 8th among all National League outfielders. Better, his wRC+ isn’t elevated by an unsustainable BABIP or home runs per fly ball (HR/FB), like the seven hitters who rank ahead of him (except Bryce Harper, who is superhuman bordering on not human at all). One could argue, with nonzero persuasiveness, that Polanco is the (second-) best pure-hitting NL outfielder in the game at this exact moment. It’s a very specific subset of hitters, yes, but if you bestowed that title on me, I’d be pretty jazzed.

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It’s been a rough year for Ian Kinsler and Neil Walker, in very similar ways. Neither is having trouble getting on base, as both have batting averages in the .270s and on-base percentages around .340. The problem is that both Kinsler and Walker have suffered through season-long power outages, severely diminishing each man’s fantasy value.

On the year, Kinsler is the No. 10 fantasy 2B, with Walker slotting in at 13th. However, both have heated up in the month of July, with Kinsler posting an .843 OPS, and Walker sitting at .885 (neither had even broken the .750 mark in any of the season’s first three months). Walker has launched three of his seven 2015 homers since the calendar turned over from June.

Kinsler only has one long ball this month, but he’s also hit two near-homers that struck the top half of the wall, and has a total of six extra-base hits. With both players finally showing signs of power production, let’s take a look at who you’d rather have on your fantasy team rest-of-season.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen combined for the third best bullpen ERA last year, which is especially impressive given they finished 27th in strikeout percentage. That their relief corps finished with a sub-3.00 ERA was largely due to their 78.3% left on-base percentage — which ranked in the top five in baseball. The pen of the Bucs managed to post a second best .272 BABIP which of course helped keep the LOB% high and the ERA down. Curiously the Pirates relief corps maintained a low BABIP while also posting the highest ground ball rate in the league last year, 52.0%. The fantasy talent dries up quickly after the closer and setup men, though there are holds to be had if one can find strikeouts elsewhere.

The closer
Jason Grilli

No surprise here as Grilli has been spectacular for the past several seasons. Rather than fitting in with the rest of the bullpen by getting ground outs and a few strikeouts, Grilli is the opposite. He 14.5% swinging strike rate last year led to a 36.6% strikeout rate, nearly a career high mark. Grilli does a superb job of keeping the ball in the yard, especially considering his tendency to record plenty of fly outs. His 33.0% GB% was tied for fourth lowest of any reliever with at least 10 saves, getting more grounders than only Ernesto Frieri, Huston Street, and Joe Nathan. On top of his home run prevention, last year Grilli’s 6.4% walk rate was the lowest single season mark of his career. Despite this being his age-37 season, Grilli still has plenty of zip on his fastball — it averaged over 93 mph last year — and he effectively mixes off-speed pitches to induce whiffs. While he did miss time last season due to a forearm strain, Grilli managed to come back in September and even finish the season as the closer.
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James Paxton, Enny Romero, Danny Duffy, Derek Holland, David Price, Chris Sale, Brad Hand, Martin Perez, Francisco Liriano, Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, Gio Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Matt Moore, Ross Detwiler, Patrick Corbin, Kris Johnson, Hector Santiago, Tony Cingrani, and Cole Hamels. A distinguished group of twenty, is it not?

The above list constitutes all lefthanded MLB starting pitchers who averaged 91.5 mph or more on their fastballs in 2013. As you can see, it consists largely of two groups: good, established MLB starters and unproven but exciting young guys who only got a few starts in the majors during the past season. Almost none of these guys have neither exciting presents nor exciting futures, and thus, anyone who projects to join this relatively selective club merits a closer look. One such pitcher is Pirates southpaw prospect Joely Rodriguez.

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I had heard a lot of varied opinions about Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospect Gerrit Cole over the last couple years so I was glad of the chance to finally lay eyes on him live this week. It’s clear he has tremendous stuff and a talented arm. Whether Cole ever becomes the kind of pitcher who can lead the Pirates staff back to the playoffs or not remains to be seen.

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This offseason, as transactions unfold and news breaks on the big league level, we’ll take a look at how the ripple effects shake out on the prospect side, focusing primarily on 2013 fantasy impact, with an eye toward the future, too.

This week: The Mariners’ 2012 first-round pick could make his debut a lot sooner; an injury opens the door for a pair of under-the-radar Pirates arms; and the Astros may convert a top pitching prospect to closer.

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Today’s Roto Riteup features an inordinate amount of hispanic names.

• Chipper Jones is no longer on the DL, as the Atlanta Braves have activated the third baseman. The switch-hitter came back just in time for the home opener of his farewell tour. Juan Francisco and Martin Prado have been filling in while he’s been away, but both of their roles will change now. Prado will now be playing left field everyday, and Francisco will become a powerful pinch-hitter until Chipper inevitably hits the DL once again.

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If Derrek Lee’s Pirates debut Monday night is any indication of things to come, then you should be running to your fantasy league’s waiver wire and grab him while you can.  2-for-4 with 2 HR and 3 RBI?  Sounds like someone’s happy with his move to the Steel City.  If you’re looking for a boost from your corner infield spot, then Lee will certainly fit the bill. Read the rest of this entry »